The Wiz Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 With the loss to GM the Bills have no more projected wins on the horizon although there are still 2 possible wins left. For a post game wrapup (and a mini rant) see the GM thread. On to Davidson ( B ) . The loss to GM drops the Bills to D+. Davidson presents a formidable opponent . The good news is the Wildcats are missing 3 players and are a bit thin. The puzzle is, I am not quite sure how many players the Bills will be missing on Wed......But here is what we need to do to win.... Dav..... STOP Gibbs...That's pretty much the strategy. Stop him and you win. The execution of this strategy may be a bit tricker though. Why is this a big deal? Let's look at the numbers. He is 3rd in the nation in scoring at 25.67 ppg.....In the last game against UMass he scored 43pts...the 3rd time he has scored 40 or more in a game and the 6th time he has scored more than 30 ....3 of the last 5 games he has played 40 min.....I could go on but you get the idea...we need to stop him and .hold him to less than 20pts Davidson overall is an average shooting team from the field but one of the top FT teams in the country...did I mention Gibbs was 15 of 16 from the FT line against UMass........Slashline...40/ 30 Barham...This guy is a strange dude...Their best shooter at 54% and yet their worst FT shooter at 57%...FG% almost equals FT%....keep this guy under 50% Bills Play Defense...If you don't bother Gibbs or leave him open ( driving to the hoop or from 3) he will score 50...Shadow him..he has had a few off games especially when the D is on him Slashline....46/ 37/ 72...Lets not go cold in any of these categories....The good news is Dav doesn't play much D....... Therefore ...No deadzones....This was better during the GM game ...just 1 five min mini deadzone....let's get rid of them all together TO...12...shouldn't be a big deal after allowing only 2 last time. Take care of the ball again Bottomline....Did I mention something about stopping Gibbs. If we don't stop him the Bills could develop Saturday Night Fever on a Wed night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billboy1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 They could be missing 10 players and it won't matter. We are terrible and it's a road game so a 20+ point loss seems to be a closer reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 They could be missing 10 players and it won't matter. We are terrible and it's a road game so a 20+ point loss seems to be a closer reality. But Jolly is gone, that is worth at least +10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billboy1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Good point but I'm sure they'll find a way to make up for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Seriously...only 6? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRN Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 We'll be down by 6 at the first TV timeout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeSmetBilliken Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Over. WAY over. If Crews trots out the lineup he did yesterday, Davidson will hang 100 on us. They might even do it anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Over. WAY over. Jesus. The term is "lay the points" for a straight bet. "Over" is just for wagers on the over / under total. And for those criticizing The Wiz, you are way off, he is not predicting the outcome, at least I do not think he is.. he is merely providing an estimated spread, very similar to the point spreads from Vegas or Offshore. Example, The KC Chiefs were -3 points, the favorites, at Houston last week, they won 30-0. No one screamed about the -3 being inaccurate. It happens. Similarly, the Vegas spread yesterday for our game was SLU - 2.5, it is not Wiz's fault that the team continues to slide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 One of the things that is making the forecasting very tough at this time is the complete change in roster. ...4 players not playing + 2 others with reduced time = 84 min gone from the GM game. Removing 84 minutes from a roster is like starting over again. It is like we are in that 1st 7 games of the season where I am trying to gather enough data to make decent predictions. An example of a normal loss would be a key Davidson player getting injured 2 weeks ago. ...21 min out of the lineup...The model has already adjusted for that. ...But to lose 84 minutes instantly is a different matter. And are those 84 minutes permanenttly gone or will there be other major roster changes. Good thing this isn't happening with the other 300+ teams or things would really be a shambles. It seems unfortunate we chose to make a major roster change in one of the few games we had a chance to win. ....unless experimenting was more important than a single win. Of course some will say that it doesn't matter but if you only have 1 arrow left in your quiver why not use it and go for the win. Point of informatiom...I don't want to mess things up for the ..."Don't confuse me with the facts , I am trying to make a point" crowd....but contrary to what the posts at the begining of this thread state....the Davidson game is a home game for the Bills. Good time to come out and see one of the top players in the country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonwich Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Isn't it appropriate to insert some Chaos Theory into your model right now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 One of the things that is making the forecasting very tough at this time is the complete change in roster. ...4 players not playing + 2 others with reduced time = 84 min gone from the GM game. Removing 84 minutes from a roster is like starting over again. It is like we are in that 1st 7 games of the season where I am trying to gather enough data to make decent predictions. An example of a normal loss would be a key Davidson player getting injured 2 weeks ago. ...21 min out of the lineup...The model has already adjusted for that. ...But to lose 84 minutes instantly is a different matter. And are those 84 minutes permanenttly gone or will there be other major roster changes. Good thing this isn't happening with the other 300+ teams or things would really be a shambles. It seems unfortunate we chose to make a major roster change in one of the few games we had a chance to win. ....unless experimenting was more important than a single win. Of course some will say that it doesn't matter but if you only have 1 arrow left in your quiver why not use it and go for the win. Point of informatiom...I don't want to mess things up for the ..."Don't confuse me with the facts , I am trying to make a point" crowd....but contrary to what the posts at the begining of this thread state....the Davidson game is a home game for the Bills. Good time to come out and see one of the top players in the country. I agree, Choosing George Mason to make a wholesale lineup change was not prudent. The messsage does not need to be sent to the players. The message needs to be sent to this coach. Also if this coach insists on playing this new lineup, then this coach must install a zone defense. This group cannot guard, period. Mason guards were taking off on the dribble drive to the hoop, with SLU utterly helpless. This is a Mason team that averaged 63 points per game and scored 92. This is the bar none worst defense I've ever seen from a SLU team, and that includes 4 years of Ekker. Ekker's team was playing against much stronger competition, and even then was marginally competitive against certain opponents, not all, at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 And for those criticizing The Wiz, you are way off, he is not predicting the outcome, at least I do not think he is.. he is merely providing an estimated spread, very similar to the point spreads from Vegas or Offshore. Example, The KC Chiefs were -3 points, the favorites, at Houston last week, they won 30-0. No one screamed about the -3 being inaccurate. It happens. Similarly, the Vegas spread yesterday for our game was SLU - 2.5, it is not Wiz's fault that the team continues to slide. Semantics. The point is that his model is consistently overrating the team. Nobody is saying this is Wiz's fault or screaming that they are "inaccurate." It's an observation. And if you're going to get your feelings hurt over people pointing this obvious trend out, I'm not sure what you think the point is of setting point spreads in the first place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 MB providing a quasi-defense of the Wiz? We are truly in the twilight zone this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It seems unfortunate we chose to make a major roster change in one of the few games we had a chance to win. ....unless experimenting was more important than a single win. Of course some will say that it doesn't matter but if you only have 1 arrow left in your quiver why not use it and go for the win. Crews either didn't care about winning one more game for one reason or another (maybe Roby and Yarbrough really have been taking dumps on the court in practice and he got sick of it), or thought that even GM at home was a lost cause to begin with. That's the only way I see the move making any sense. Either way, he was wildly overreacting to what that lineup did in garbage time at Duquesne. Then again the joke is probably on anyone looking for any kind of rationality in Crews' decision making at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeSmetBilliken Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Jesus. The term is "lay the points" for a straight bet. "Over" is just for wagers on the over / under total. Would you prefer if I just avoided using gambling terminology and said something like this: I think that Davidson will beat SLU by a number greater than 6. Because that's all I'm trying to say with my "over" comments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Semantics. The point is that his model is consistently overrating the team. Nobody is saying this is Wiz's fault or screaming that they are "inaccurate." It's an observation. And if you're going to get your feelings hurt over people pointing this obvious trend out, I'm not sure what you think the point is of setting point spreads in the first place. You know damn well there have been lots of criticism of The Wiz this year, people who (I assume) think he is "predicting" the exact outcome. Hell The Wiz even made a post telling people if they do not like him to put him on ignore. You get it, I know, you are just being a jackoff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 You know damn well there have been tons of criticism of The Wiz, people who (I assume) think he is "predicting" the exact outcome. Hell The Wiz even made a post telling people if they do not like him to put him on ignore. You get it, I know, you are just being a jackoff. Yes, but we both know those people are only giving Wiz trouble because he is white. Why waste your vitriolic invective on gambling semantics when what the issue really calls for is playing the race card? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yes, but we both know those people are only giving Wiz trouble because he is white. Why waste your vitriolic invective on gambling semantics when what the issue really calls for is playing the race card? How do I know he is white, ass breath? And you bring up sneaky 'lil race issues (like this) more than anyone on the board X 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 You can figure out Wiz's race the same way you figured out Jolly's--you look at the MFers. Nothing sneaky about it. Wiz and Jolly are the victims of institutional message board racism, plain and simple. I'm agreeing with you here. Can't we just be friends united in our crusade for internet justice? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Actually, I have a greenish tint from all the years in Emerald City waiting for Dorothy to show up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Isn't it appropriate to insert some Chaos Theory into your model right now? So does that mean "the butterfly effect" in this case would be changing the coach.? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Can't believe you can type "over Bills by" and then type a single digit number with a straight face Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Saint Louis University.. Where math cannot comprehend how bad we are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Should be a HUGE crowd tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeSmetBilliken Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Should be a HUGE crowd tonight. Great! Then voices will really carry when people yell at Crews! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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