Once Again, Need Help ....

[Taj79]

There are many things I don't understand, so I naturally turn to the wisdom that is this board.....

So, Kentucky's 2012-13 roster shows 13 players. And 13 is your maximum number of scholarships, yes? Two ---- Goodwin and Noel --- have declared for the draft as freshmen, yes? Down to eleven then.

Now this story:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9187451/kentucky-wildcats-add-all-american-recruits-julius-randle-dakari-johnson

Calipari signs EIGHT for next year in what is being called the "greatest recruiting class ever." Now, I've heard of this fancy/schmancy new math but how does 11 plus 8 = 13 scholarships max? On the surface of my planet, this would seem to be inherently wrong. How can this occur? I thought you can't stockpile kids like in the old days. That Max would seem to be Max. If 13 is the limit, then "over the limit" would not seem to create a "gray area." Or is the new math "11 plus 8 = 13 or close enough."

Seems to me that if the NCAA were indeed serious, this kind of crap ---- which seems mostly damaging to the kids who sign on and then either get run off or lose their ride or something --- would raise their ire and force them to do something. Yet this guy, this school, seems to be above it all.

roy has long talked the APR and openly worries about us given Majerus' early behavior in terms of our roster. Uconn sat this year out because of their APR. Kentucky went from national champs to one-and-done in the NIT, and now comes back with this and a #1 seed in Lunardi's first bracketology for 2014. I don't get it.

[cheeseman]

My understanding is that one and done players do not count against your APR. My guess is that some of the current KT players will have to transfer , have their schollies taken away or Calipari will have to let some of the players out of their LOI. Either way he has to be at 13 schollie players by the start of the basketball season next year. If some of the current players do not declare for the draft then I think he will have an APR hit if some transfer or he takes their schollie away. Calipari was under the impression that this team was going to be like last years - several declare for the draft after winning the National Championship - man plans and God laughs.

[slu72]

I have no idea, but would offer up that this Calipari's theory of relativity or evolution. Which in math form would be stated as:

KY=(11+8)- x

The whiz could probably give you a better formula.

But, back to us, how do we look on the APR front these days?

[NextYearBill]

Andrew Wiggins is still on the table for KY too. If that goes down, cancel the season and give them the trophy

[waldo027]

They weren't at the scholarship limit for this season. Looks to me like they only had 11 scholarship players. Julius Mays and Twane Beckham were seniors, Goodwin and Noel are gone, Ryan Harrow is "transferring" so that makes 6. So they need to "make room" for 1 more spot for the incoming 8 recruits. If Wiggins commits they will need to clear one more spot.

That's my last post in this thread, because we all know where this is headed.

[ACE]

My understanding is that one and done players do not count against your APR. My guess is that some of the current KT players will have to transfer , have their schollies taken away or Calipari will have to let some of the players out of their LOI. Either way he has to be at 13 schollie players by the start of the basketball season next year. If some of the current players do not declare for the draft then I think he will have an APR hit if some transfer or he takes their schollie away. Calipari was under the impression that this team was going to be like last years - several declare for the draft after winning the National Championship - man plans and God laughs.

That is one of many reasons why the APR is a joke. You should not be allowed to build the core of your team with one and dones and not have consequences.

[billiken_roy]

My understanding is that one and done players do not count against your APR. My guess is that some of the current KT players will have to transfer , have their schollies taken away or Calipari will have to let some of the players out of their LOI. Either way he has to be at 13 schollie players by the start of the basketball season next year. If some of the current players do not declare for the draft then I think he will have an APR hit if some transfer or he takes their schollie away. Calipari was under the impression that this team was going to be like last years - several declare for the draft after winning the National Championship - man plans and God laughs.

i think there is a point the one and done player has to be current with their grades. i dont think there needs to be select credits to "be on pace to graduate" with a certain degree. i.e. if at xmas the student athlete was passing 2 basket weaving classes, a PE class, 100 level geography and a remedial reading class, he would be good to go.

i wouldnt bet the farm on this, but that is my recollection. if someone can quote the actual rule that would indeed be awesome.

[Bobby Metzinger]

Cal has had Final Four banners removed at two schools prior to landing in Lexington. Give it another year or two until it becomes three schools.

The worst thing the NBA could have done to fock college basketball was the elimination of high school jumpers. I hate Kentucky and I wish the media would have played up the Robert Morris loss the way it did when Appalachian State beat Michigan, but the media protects Kentucky basketball.

[Emoracze]

i think there is a point the one and done player has to be current with their grades. i dont think there needs to be select credits to "be on pace to graduate" with a certain degree. i.e. if at xmas the student athlete was passing 2 basket weaving classes, a PE class, 100 level geography and a remedial reading class, he would be good to go.

i wouldnt bet the farm on this, but that is my recollection. if someone can quote the actual rule that would indeed be awesome.

This is incorrect, you can't take basket weaving 101 and 201 at the same time. 101 is a pre-requisite at Kentucky, there are standards there.

[Billiken Rich]

This is true but you CAN take "The Physics of Basketball 101" and "The Philosophy of Basketball 102" concurrently.......

[Emoracze]

This is true but you CAN take "The Physics of Basketball 101" and "The Philosophy of Basketball 102" concurrently.......

Except in Kentucky it's Fisicks 101 and flosophy 102.

[TRN]

Or fashion 101, aka Jorts sewing, where Harrelson got an A+.

[billiken_roy]

I looked up the ncaa APR guideline and it appears that yes, a freshmen isnt really counted in the APR unless they do not pass at least 6 credit hours each term. then by the end of their sophomore year, they have to be on pace to have covered 40% of their needed credits towards a diploma and each year thereafter a minimum of another 20% is added. i.e. sophomore 40%, junior 60%, Senior 80% graduate by their 5th year.

each year the student athlete accomplishes this, he earns a point for their team. each year the student athlete doesnt leave school they earn a point.also, so each student athlete is worth 2 points per year. no where did i see that a player that goes pro doesnt lose the one point for leaving school. so not sure how the kentucky's and kansas's are getting around that part of the equation. possibly they get the one point hit the year the athlete leaves but still can get the academic qualifying point? if so, it would seem the likes of kentucky would get a disasterous score in the 2011-2012 upcoming score with all the players that left school early last year.

so, if all 13 athletes earn all their points then the team has 26 points. divide that by the maximum points (26) and then multiply by 1000. that is the APR. so if one athlete is not on pace but still at SLU, and one athlete was not on pace and left school, but all the rest were perfect, then the team would earn 23 points. divided by 26 = .885 x 1000 = 885.

for this coming season the team must have a four year average of 900 or better or the most recent two years over 930. Starting with the 2014-15 season that bottom line will go to a four year average of 930 or a two year average of 940. and in 2015-16 season it is flat out you have to be over 930 computed on a four year average.

as you can see by my example of just two kids screwing up, it doesnt take much to mess up a season average.

the 11-12 season will soon be rated (remember a player has that 5th year to graduate, so that is why it runs behind).

our APR history is follows:

2010 - 11 - .923

2009 - 10 - .925

2008 - 09 - .935

(below does not matter going forward, but interesting to see the trend of the Billikens)

2007 - 08 - .947

2006 - 07 - .979

2005 - 06 - .986

2004 - 05 - 1.000

the way i read it, we would have to be under an 817 on the 2011-12 season to be ineligible for next season.

however the bigger concern would be if we do not reverse the trend. then the following season when the four year average goes to 930, could be concerning.

here is the ncaa link:

http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/public/NCAA/Academics/Division+I/Academic+Progress+Rate

[cheeseman]

I heard earlier in the year on one of the ESPN channels that one and done do not count against your APR - it was an exception that the NCAA put in - not sure where the disconnect is.

[Emoracze]

Thanks Roy, this is really helpful.

[kshoe]

I'm glad to see that after many years of arguing about the APR with Roy he's finally decided to look up the formula and understand how it works.

He has most things right but I do want to clarify a few things.

1) The APR's he reports for SLU are the 4 year averages as of those years. The trend is already on the way up. Since next year's APR will only include 3 of the previous 4 years you have to know the individual years and which one will roll off. Here are the year by year APR's for SLU:

2010-11: 945

2009-10: 915

2008-09: 933

2007-08: 892

2006-07: 958

2) Roy's formula is generally right but in reality you get 2 points per player, per semester. So for a full season with a full roster, the maximum number of points is 52, not 26.

3) Here is real secret of the APR. When a player leaves, you lose one point. If he has "good" grades you can actually get that point back. If he has "average" grades you will only lose that one point. If he has "bad" grades and isn't on track to graduate with the required number of credit hours you will lose an additional point. So a player that leaves mid-semester without passing any classes will lose 2 points per the formula. A one and done NBA player COULD cost you 0 points if he has passed a minimum number of credit hours with "good" grades. It goes without saying that the UK's, KU's, etc. of the world put their one and done players in the easiest classes and give them "good" grades to avoid the penalties under this system. A one and doner COULD cost a school if he doesn't pass the bare minimum classes or a school doesn't have enough basket weaving classes for them, or doesn't hand out As and Bs just for showing up. I doubt it takes much imagination to see how this rule can be manipulated by schools.

4) So where does this leave SLU going forward? During 2011-12 we had 13 players and Emanual Tes... was the only one that left. Everyone else either graduated or was eligible to play this year. Here is what our 2011-12 single year APR will look like depending on how good of a student ET was.

Good: 1,000 (52/52)

Average: 981 (51/52)

Poor: 962 (50/52)

Rumor at the time was that ET was a "good" student but we will know for sure in May when the new numbers comes out.

5) Here is how out 4-year average will look when the new numbers come out and the 2007-08 year of 892 is no longer included., again depending on how good of a student ET was:

Good: 951

Average: 946

Poor: 941

6) As of right now, Keith Carter is the only person we have to worry about on the 2012-13. The fact he left after the 1st semester ended and will be eligible at Valpo suggests he will be either a "good" or "average" and will either cost us 0 or 1 point. Either way, we are going to be fine regarding the APR going forward.

Hope this helps.

[Taj79]

Special thanks to both roy and kshoe. The good news is when I don't know, I try to ask. The bad news is I still will opine ..... in long hand .... when it comes to opinion, which is bad news for f05 and NH. The novels will continue ......

Now where's that second signing of the week?

[billiken_roy]

My information can be found via my attached link. I do not find kshoe's interpretation anywhere on NCAA I.e. each semester figured separately or SLU annual APR. Not saying they aren't true but would like to see link. Same with the one n done exception

[kshoe]

My information can be found via my attached link. I do not find kshoe's interpretation anywhere on NCAA I.e. each semester figured separately or SLU annual APR. Not saying they aren't true but would like to see link. Same with the one n done exception

I agree that sometimes finding data on APR calculations can be like searching for a needle in the haystack that is the NCAA website. I suspect they don't want it easy for the general public to see just how flawed their calculation methodology is, thus they make it hard to find data. Nevertheless, here are the links you have requested.

This one shows a sample APR calculation. Please note the use of two semesters.

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/NCAANewsArchive/2005/Division+I/sample%2Bapr%2Bcalculation%2B-%2B2-14-05%2Bncaa%2Bnews.html

If you want more proof of the dual semester, please go here:

http://www.sectiononewrestling.com/documents/academic_performance_rate_apr_college_wrestling.html

Here are the links to the annual SLU APR's. Please note the column labeled "Multiyear APR" which you quoted and single year APR which I have quoted.

http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/apr2011/609_2011_apr.pdf

https://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/apr2010/609_2010_apr.pdf

http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/apr2009/609_2009_apr.pdf

And finally, language about the exception for athletes in "good" academic standing can be found here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academic_Progress_Rate

Please note the following paragraph:

Adjustments

The NCAA does adjust APR, on a student-by-student basis, in two circumstances. One exception that can be made, is for student-athletes who leave prior to graduation, while in good academic standing, to pursue a professional career. Another is for student-athletes who transfer to another school while meeting minimum academic requirements and student-athletes who return to graduate at a later date.

[saluki762]

It is not just 1 and done's. Any player that leaves early for a non academic reason, i.e. entering the draft, does not affect the schools APR as long as they are in good academic standing at the time they withdraw.

They could be a Fr., So, Jr, doesn't matter, Just have to be in a good standing when they leave.

[billiken_roy]

thank you.

[bbtds]

6) As of right now, Keith Carter is the only person we have to worry about on the 2012-13. The fact he left after the 1st semester ended and will be eligible at Valpo suggests he will be either a "good" or "average" and will either cost us 0 or 1 point. Either way, we are going to be fine regarding the APR going forward.

From what I have heard from the person in charge of Valpo academics for the men's basketball program none of the Valpo student athletes have had any problems academically. So that puts Keith Carter in the good to excellent category as far as grades. I don't think Bryce Drew would have looked at Carter at all if his grades weren't good to excellent from the start.

[For-DaLove]

From what I have heard from the person in charge of Valpo academics for the men's basketball program none of the Valpo student athletes have had any problems academically. So that puts Keith Carter in the good to excellent category as far as grades. I don't think Bryce Drew would have looked at Carter at all if his grades weren't good to excellent from the start.

Bryce Drew is coaching for you guys nowadays?

[billslasttermdropout]

That's Bryce Homer Drew to you, pal.

[Box and Won]

Bryce Drew is coaching for you guys nowadays?

I'm fairly sure he used to play there as well.