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Updated Bracketology (1/8/13)

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http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Lunardi has SLU in as a #11 Seed and one of the "last four in." He has the A10 with 4 teams in ... Butler (5 seed), VCU (6 seed), Temple (9 seed) and SLU (11 Seed).

The game against Temple on Saturday will make or break the momentum of the NM game. It is the most important road game of the season.

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The game against Temple on Saturday will make or break the momentum of the NM game. It is the most important road game of the season.

Probably true. That said, if we go 1-1 over our next two games we will still be right on schedule.

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The game against Temple on Saturday will make or break the momentum of the NM game. It is the most important road game of the season.

Probably true. That said, if we go 1-1 over our next two games we will still be right on schedule.

Agreed, Temple's going to be tough no matter where you play them. Dunphy's a great coach and he's got some talent on that team. Don't know why they were so discounted in the preseason A-10 rankings.

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From http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20130108/bubble-watch/#ixzz2HUZEzJUt

Saint Louis (11-3, 0-0; RPI: 57, SOS: 38)

After a sketchy start, the Billikens are starting to find a groove and now senior point guard Kwamain Mitchell is back. The win over New Mexico was an excellent sign, as Saint Louis toppled a quality foe without Mitchell really being back to his regular level yet. The Billikens open home to UMass and at Temple, so not an easy start to league play.

GW: New Mexico

BL: Santa Clara?

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This is a good chance for me to recommend the Bracket Project which shows ALL the people predicting the final bracket. There are no rules about what "predicting" means in January (are you showing who is in if the season ended today or are you predicting the rest of the season or a little of both?) but no team has ever been left out if they are a strong consensus on this site (bracketologists get a few teams wrong but other than those last few teams most everybody correctly predicts the rest.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

Saint Louis is in the tourney according to 25 of the 31 bracketologists currently forecasting (most wait until later in the season). So, SLU is in which leads me to believe most of the bracketologists are forecasting to the end of the season. The consensus is on 11. Joe Lunardi is not a great predictor (although not bad the last few years) as he is ranked 36th out of the 65 veterans.

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Disagree, 72. Temple has somehuge holes. Temple does not have a true point guard. And if you believe as I do that the college game is a guard's game, the lack of a point guard is akin to having not one but two flat tires. Scootie Randall is coming off reconstructive knee surgery. The bench is extremely short with Dalton Peppar and Jake O'Brien as main players. I grew up on Phgilly basketball --- not to be a bigot but seeing a white guy on Temple was rare. They have three this year playing significant minutes in Peppar, O'Brien and TJ DiLeo.

Will Cummings is only a sophomore and while he was supposed to take over for the departed Juan Fernandez, that has not really happened just yet. DiLeo is a spot player but decreasing in efficiency when he asked to play more minutes. Too limited. Pepper is listed as a guard, but the WV transfer is more Dwayne Evans-ish and limited as a guard. Randall is listed as a guard ala Ramon Moore but is not as gifted in the open court as Moore was. More of a three. Daniel Dingle and Quenton Decosey are freshmen, buried deep on Fran Dunphy's bench.

Which only leaves Khalif Wyatt. Which might be enough.

We all know what Wyatt did to us last year, using his 6'4" frame to go off for 22 points in a 72-67 win at our place. He shot 9-for-13 including 3-of-3 from three-point land. I recall him shooting at will over Jett, Mitchell and McCall. I have seen them against Syracuse, Nova and Duke this year as well as Sunday's game at Kansas. He lit up the "Cuse for 33, had a respectable 13 or so against Nova, and was throttled for only six at Duke. They beat both the "Cuse and 'Nova (but Nova is down this year -- way down). Some might think we have to shut Wyatt down. What I saw with him against Kansas was his playing point guard and while he did lead the team in scoring in a close loss at Kansas, he is still more able to create for himself and not involve much of his team. But Randall, Hollis-Jefferson and Lee can go off on the offensive board end if we send two guys at Wyatt. And as SSU showed, our protection off our defensive glass is NOT good.

Given what I've seen, I don't know that Wyatt can be stopped. Rather, I say let him go for his average (16.2 ppg) and stymie the rest. Don't allow anyone else to beat us. Randall is in a slump. Lee can be a monster on the boards but I think Remekun can hold his own. Hollis-Jefferson can get hot so maybe DE steps up. Old friend Jim Barron went in to Temple and beat them with his new Canisuis squad. Wyatt scored 17 but Jefferson and Randall totaled a combined 9. It can be done. Run four guards at him -- the three from last year plus some Barnett time -- if just from the harrassment/fresh end.

Temple will be tough. Two years ago, we went in there and scored only 53. Lost by four. This is a less stellar Temple team in my book. Can't wait to see it.

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a 12 seed puts us in the sweet 16. or we need the 5 seed. magic numbers

George Mason and VCU were both 11 seeds and made the Final Four, right?

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We can lose @Temple and still be in good shape for the tournament. Most analysts expect SLU to lose that game. It's not a deflating loss at all. If they win, then they've significantly boosted their chances.

Losing to UMass at home is the game that will zap the momentum.

SLU likely needs to go 11-5 in A10 play to get in, provided they don't shart the bed in Brooklyn.

@Temple, @Butler, vs VCU are the 3 games that we're currently legitimate underdogs. (If it's a legitimate underdog, the coaching staff has ways to try to shut that whole thing down)

vs Butler, vs St Joes, @Richmond, @Xavier, and you could even throw in vs UMass, vs Dayton, and vs LaSalle as individual games that we could afford to lose provided we still get to 11-5.

That being said, there is no need to cut it that close. 11-5 is not the goal. 16-0 should be the goal. 13 or 14 wins with (even a shared) A10 title is realistic if things go our way.

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From http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20130108/bubble-watch/#ixzz2HUZEzJUt

Saint Louis (11-3, 0-0; RPI: 57, SOS: 38)

After a sketchy start, the Billikens are starting to find a groove and now senior point guard Kwamain Mitchell is back. The win over New Mexico was an excellent sign, as Saint Louis toppled a quality foe without Mitchell really being back to his regular level yet. The Billikens open home to UMass and at Temple, so not an easy start to league play.

GW: New Mexico

BL: Santa Clara?

I don't think SC is a bad loss. In fact, I have SC and NM as B+ teams right now. Our weakest loss is Washington...a B- ...hardly a bad loss. That is why we have a good ranking and good numbers. The teams we have lost to are doing pretty well which helps us.

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At the Billiken Club meeting last night Crews called Santa Clara a bad loss. Said we didn't come to play.

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Speaking of teams potentially helping us, tonight starting at 8 on ESPNU you can watch Texas A&M host Arkansas, at 9 on CBS Sports New Mexico hosts UNLV and at 10 Washington plays at California on ESPN2. Hopefully all our past opponents will win.

In a current shocker, Iowa St. is up 2 on Kansas in Lawrence with 8 minutes to go (ESPNU).

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Kansas sends it to OT with a 3 with 1 second left. No one will ever convince me that you should not foul in that situation.

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Kansas sends it to OT with a 3 with 1 second left. No one will ever convince me that you should not foul in that situation.

+1000000

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At the Billiken Club meeting last night Crews called Santa Clara a bad loss. Said we didn't come to play.

Maybe he meant bad in terms of our performance and not necessarily bad in terms of quality of opponent?

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At the Billiken Club meeting last night Crews called Santa Clara a bad loss. Said we didn't come to play.

Maybe he meant bad in terms of our performance and not necessarily bad in terms of quality of opponent?

The game against Santa Clara was a bad loss. On a computer model, a loss to a pretty good team can be said to be "not a bad loss" but to me, it was the worst performance I've seen our Bills give in years. We were thoroughly outplayed in every facet of the game including hustling. That game, a home game against a good (not great) team -- not a "name" school, lead to more negative press coverage and established the belief that our team sucked, killed any preseason momentum for this team, suppressed attendance at future games and ended the excitement and promise of the best Billiken season in years. Also, we witnessed no adjustments or timeouts being called and that game alone is responsible for most on this Board solidifying their position that Crews is a good man, that we are thankful for his current services but that he is not our head coach next year.

Revisionist history is wrong. That was a terrible game and a bad loss.

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Clock - All of that is fine, but when the selection committee looks at our resume, that will not be considered a bad loss.

Losing to a top 100 team is not a bad loss. Especially when you played without two of your starters.

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On 1/10/2013 at 6:49 AM, Clock_Tower said:

The game against Santa Clara was a bad loss. On a computer model, a loss to a pretty good team can be said to be "not a bad loss" but to me, it was the worst performance I've seen our Bills give in years. We were thoroughly outplayed in every facet of the game including hustling. That game, a home game against a good (not great) team -- not a "name" school, lead to more negative press coverage and established the belief that our team sucked, killed any preseason momentum for this team, suppressed attendance at future games and ended the excitement and promise of the best Billiken season in years. Also, we witnessed no adjustments or timeouts being called and that game alone is responsible for most on this Board solidifying their position that Crews is a good man, that we are thankful for his current services but that he is not our head coach next year.

Revisionist history is wrong. That was a terrible game and a bad loss.

+1

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