Pistol Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 I think we finish 3-1. Grab a Top 4 spot in the tourney. First round bye, win, and win again. A-10 Champs. Automatic Bid. This got me to thinking- which is more realistic, going 3-1 in our last 4 games or winning the A10 tournament? The way I see it, we've got only 1 loss at home but face arguably the two toughest teams in the conference there in the next 3 games. Then we've got Dayton on the road, and it's hard to feel too optimistic for that one, even with Dayton sliding. I would think winning the A10 tournament, regardless of seed, is more likely than us winning 3 or 4 of the last 4 regular season games. At the very worst, we'd host a first round game against one of the bottom-half teams before having to win just 2 in Atlantic City, and we could wind up with teams other than Temple or Xavier out there. Then again, we could face both of them there and that would not be good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 I would think winning the A10 tournament, regardless of seed, is more likely than us winning 3 or 4 of the last 4 regular season games. At the very worst, we'd host a first round game against one of the bottom-half teams before having to win just 2 in Atlantic City, and we could wind up with teams other than Temple or Xavier out there. Then again, we could face both of them there and that would not be good. Winning the A-10 is not going to be easy as there are a lot of bubble possibilities. Not saying it's ever easy to win a tourney game, it's not, but at least 7 teams in the conf may have a shot at the dance depending on how the regular season shakes out. Right now I'd say X, Temple are locks. So that leaves 5 teams that will be playing for a shot at the dance. It's gonna be a dog fight. If we were to win, however, I'd say we could really be a tough out in the dance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills10 Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 playoffstatus.com is a site that gives probabilities of finishing in various places in the conference, etc. If you like to think about this stuff, like what are our chances for each ranking if we beat X, lose to X, if Charlotte wins, or anything else, then this is fun to check out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 Four and GO, baby! Over X by 5 Over Duquesne by 3 Over Temple by 6 (slow grind at end BC they keep fouling us and we nail the free throws to extend the lead in last minute) Over Dayton by 8 FOUR AND GO! A-10 CHAMPS! I was watching the Pitt/Villanova game the other day and I just don't think there's a team in the country we can't hang with. We might surprise with a run to the Sweet 16 this year. Can't wait! And I also can't wait to hear how you guys think I'm crazy. But I've said it all season long. Right, lloyddobbler? My kinda Billiken fan! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 1-5. 0-4 in the regular season and 1-1 in the A-10 tourney. Moderators- Could you please take care of this guy? Give him the boot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 1-5. 0-4 in the regular season and 1-1 in the A-10 tourney. I think me and you need to have a little meeting in Salinas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 I think me and you need to have a little meeting in Salinas. 0:23-0:30 is pure genius. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 I think me and you need to have a little meeting in Salinas. sounds like we'll have a crowd in Salina. Reverse psychology my friends, reverse psychology. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 sounds like we'll have a crowd in Salina. Reverse psychology my friends, reverse psychology. Reverse psychology....How about reverse suplex? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 Reverse psychology....How about reverse suplex? That's a legal submission hold! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bsheldon Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 playoffstatus.com is a site that gives probabilities of finishing in various places in the conference, etc. If you like to think about this stuff, like what are our chances for each ranking if we beat X, lose to X, if Charlotte wins, or anything else, then this is fun to check out. Thanks for the link--fun stuff. It says that if we win out the regular season and just make it to the A-10 Championship game we have a 78% chance of making the dance. Not too bad. Of course, all that that requires is for us to win 6 more games in a row against against at least 3 of the top 50 teams in the nation--so no big deal. Of course if we make it to the championship game--why wouldn't we just win it and be done with it? This whole post season thing seems real simple to me. Regardless of what happens this has been one heck of a ride so far. Who would have thought we would be here after the "BG incident" (as I am now calling it)? I sure hope it continues. Go Bills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 fan Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 I believe to win the A-10 tournament, you will have to win three games in Atlantic City. The top 4 teams (Go Bills) get byes and the 4 winners of the play in games go. Eight teams, means a quarterfinal, semi and final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 To be in "great shape", we need to go 3-1 to finish the regular season 21-9. Xavier is the key game. Xavier is still THE MAN in the A-10, and will be smart enough to not look past us. Perhaps some have so far, NOW we definitely have everyone's attention. U Mass game was huge, many teams on the rise would let down and lose on the road after some big wins, we won handily. So we need to beat Xavier, Duq and then split between Temple and Dayton. Game @ Dayton might be the toughest, 2nd time around, revenge, both teams looking ahead to the A-10 tourney, home team has huge advantage. Then one win in A-10 gets us in NIT IMO... a reasonable objective. Committees will not just look at RPI, which has some flaws, but look at how hot we were 2nd half, and understand that Ellis did not play 1st half. And Majerus will be attractive story for them... a positive. If we go 3-1 and then win 2 in A-10... hey, maybe sneak into the NCAA's if there are not a lot of conference tourney upsets. Even 2-2, then win one in A-10, helluva season for fresh and sophs, 21-11. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanRick Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Here's my guess. 4-0 and we get SERIOUS NCAA tourney consideration regardless of conference tourney performance (we'd likely be #2 facing a #7 dayton in a rematch in the first round anyway at that point. tough game to win for a 3rd time in a row). Seed #12 up to possible #8 if we win A-10 tourney (we'd be 25-8) 3-1 and we need to make A-10 finals to get a #12, or else it's NIT 2-2 or worse and we need to win A-10 tourney to dance, but probably still for at least a #13 because 12 small-conference champs will be below us I think at this point, given our great run with Ellis coming and Majerus as coach, we'd have to just about lose out to not make NIT. That being said, do you guys think we'd even accept a CBI invite this year? My prediction: Alot will hinge on the XU game. IF we win that one, we could go 3-1. If we lose it, we could go 1-3. I don't see us beating Dayton in Dayton regardless of what kind of a low they're on at that point. Surprise me, bills. I'll be optimistic and call for a 3-1 finish. I'm not an expert but if we beat Xavier Duq and Temple, but lose to Dayton on the road, we could have about a #50-#60 rpi? That's when the conference tourney comes into HUGE play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Here's my guess. 4-0 and we get SERIOUS NCAA tourney consideration regardless of conference tourney performance (we'd likely be #2 facing a #7 dayton in a rematch in the first round anyway at that point. tough game to win for a 3rd time in a row). Seed #12 up to possible #8 if we win A-10 tourney (we'd be 25-8) 3-1 and we need to make A-10 finals to get a #12, or else it's NIT 2-2 or worse and we need to win A-10 tourney to dance, but probably still for at least a #13 because 12 small-conference champs will be below us I think at this point, given our great run with Ellis coming and Majerus as coach, we'd have to just about lose out to not make NIT. That being said, do you guys think we'd even accept a CBI invite this year? My prediction: Alot will hinge on the XU game. IF we win that one, we could go 3-1. If we lose it, we could go 1-3. I don't see us beating Dayton in Dayton regardless of what kind of a low they're on at that point. Surprise me, bills. I'll be optimistic and call for a 3-1 finish. I'm not an expert but if we beat Xavier Duq and Temple, but lose to Dayton on the road, we could have about a #50-#60 rpi? That's when the conference tourney comes into HUGE play. I think that if the Bills lose to Xavier it will have no bearing on what they do against Temple. Also, I wouldn't feel too confident about the NIT just yet: the Bills certainly couldn't be confident about an NIT bid after losing out and being 18-13 or 19-13. The days of being able to be just barely over .500 and getting into the NIT are gone. Otherwise, why didn't they get a bid at 18-14 last year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanRick Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 I think that if the Bills lose to Xavier it will have no bearing on what they do against Temple. Also, I wouldn't feel too confident about the NIT just yet: the Bills certainly couldn't be confident about an NIT bid after losing out and being 18-13 or 19-13. The days of being able to be just barely over .500 and getting into the NIT are gone. Otherwise, why didn't they get a bid at 18-14 last year? Good point about the NIT. More work to be done for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bleedtheblue Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 To be honest I think that it is awesome that we can be talking about what we are talking about. Im not gonna put any guesses out there but I think we just need to focus on ONE GAME AT A TIME. Lets rock the 'Fetz tomorrow. class is going to suck tomorrow as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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