SLU_Nick Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Okay. We just beat a top tier team in the A-10 with our best big man out. Ellis completes this team. He is fluid and has a calming presence out there. And we have no Juniors or Seniors. This will be our starting five Reed Ellis Cassity CS Mitchell with BC, JJ, and CR coming off the bench. I am loving this team right now. Okay so here is the question for Kwijbo, thicks and the others who like to predict RPI and such. Where do the bills have to finish in league play to get an at large? 2nd? 3rd? I think we will play much better on the road with Ellis. He is just a beast out there. -Nick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basketbill Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Okay. We just beat a top tier team in the A-10 with our best big man out. Ellis completes this team. He is fluid and has a calming presence out there. And we have no Juniors or Seniors. This will be our starting five Reed Ellis Cassity CS Mitchell with BC, JJ, and CR coming off the bench. I am loving this team right now. Okay so here is the question for Kwijbo, thicks and the others who like to predict RPI and such. Where do the bills have to finish in league play to get an at large? 2nd? 3rd? I think we will play much better on the road with Ellis. He is just a beast out there. -Nick Wow Nellie........ we need to win a road game first. Once we do that should we defend home court then we can start to wonder. This is really our only significant quality win, the fact we did it without Willie Reed says a great deal about the team as a whole, but does not help our RPI at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
booyaa87 Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 I wouldn't be surprised to see BC, WR and CE start to be honest. He played some 3 tonight. A little early on the at large bid. Keep in mind this is one of the worst road teams in the country. We can beat ANYBODY in the country at home, but we could probably lose to a few high school teams on the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Okay. We just beat a top tier team in the A-10 with our best big man out. Ellis completes this team. He is fluid and has a calming presence out there. And we have no Juniors or Seniors. This will be our starting five Reed Ellis Cassity CS Mitchell with BC, JJ, and CR coming off the bench. I am loving this team right now. Okay so here is the question for Kwijbo, thicks and the others who like to predict RPI and such. Where do the bills have to finish in league play to get an at large? 2nd? 3rd? I think we will play much better on the road with Ellis. He is just a beast out there. -Nick It is out of the question. If we go 13-3 in conference, our expected RPI is only 54. That means we'd have to go 14-2 or 15-1 to have an RPI in the at-large category. It ain't happening this year. We need to have fun, get better, hope for a run in the A-10 tourney or playin one of the other postseason tourneys but an at large simply is not happening this season. http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/St.%20Louis.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonwich Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 It is out of the question. If we go 13-3 in conference, our expected RPI is only 54. That means we'd have to go 14-2 or 15-1 to have an RPI in the at-large category. It ain't happening this year. We need to have fun, get better, hope for a run in the A-10 tourney or playin one of the other postseason tourneys but an at large simply is not happening this season. http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/St.%20Louis.html Aw, let us dream for one game. The odds of us going 13-3 are pretty near the absolute tail of his distribution. If we pull off something that spectacular, maybe enough of the teams we played or will play will also skew to the positive and have better years than predicted. Our expected SOS is 103; if the actual number rises into the 90s and we go 13-3, well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drkelsey55 Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Aw, let us dream for one game. The odds of us going 13-3 are pretty near the absolute tail of his distribution. If we pull off something that spectacular, maybe enough of the teams we played or will play will also skew to the positive and have better years than predicted. Our expected SOS is 103; if the actual number rises into the 90s and we go 13-3, well...if we go 13-3 in A10 play 2-1 in a10 tourney and 1-1 in the NIT we end up 25-10 as I predictated at the start of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runnin'Billiken Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 TOO SOON If we win 13 or more A10 games I will run a lap around Chaifetz naked, barefoot, in the snow. Quote me. There could not be a bigger night and day difference between the team we saw last Saturday and this Saturday, but just as our pessimism got carried away last week, or optimism is getting carried away today. I think 10-6 is still a very admirable goal, especially since we were discussing whether we will even win 1 road game seven days ago. Until we prove that we can win a road game, some level-headedness should be prescribed. And last time I checked 4 more potential tournament teams are scheduled to visit the Fetz. Hopefully the rotting spider entrails serve as a warning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Nick Posted January 10, 2010 Author Share Posted January 10, 2010 TOO SOON If we win 13 or more A10 games I will run a lap around Chaifetz naked, barefoot, in the snow. Quote me. There could not be a bigger night and day difference between the team we saw last Saturday and this Saturday, but just as our pessimism got carried away last week, or optimism is getting carried away today. I think 10-6 is still a very admirable goal, especially since we were discussing whether we will even win 1 road game seven days ago. Until we prove that we can win a road game, some level-headedness should be prescribed. And last time I checked 4 more potential tournament teams are scheduled to visit the Fetz. Hopefully the rotting spider entrails serve as a warning. Ok, the above is noted Running Bill Would the NCAA committee ever look at our "with Cody Ellis" record and say this team is a completely different team than the one who lost to bowling green. They went 13-3 in the 5th highest ranking conference, they deserve a shot even though their RPI is higher than 50. There are some outliers every year and at least we would have an excuse to be one of those outliers... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlumniFan Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Ok, the above is noted Running Bill Would the NCAA committee ever look at our "with Cody Ellis" record and say this team is a completely different team than the one who lost to bowling green. They went 13-3 in the 5th highest ranking conference, they deserve a shot even though their RPI is higher than 50. There are some outliers every year and at least we would have an excuse to be one of those outliers... Lord knows they owe us one after the whole clearing house fiasco... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOSLU68 Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Lord knows they owe us one after the whole clearing house fiasco... I bet odds are still we go .500 in league games; This was a big win for us but we need a lot of road wins. Would they have defended us easier had WR started? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Aw, let us dream for one game. The odds of us going 13-3 are pretty near the absolute tail of his distribution. If we pull off something that spectacular, maybe enough of the teams we played or will play will also skew to the positive and have better years than predicted. Our expected SOS is 103; if the actual number rises into the 90s and we go 13-3, well... Is it to early to point out that if we don't lose another game this season we will be national champs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Hopefully the rotting spider entrails serve as a warning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
For-DaLove Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 I bet odds are still we go .500 in league games; This was a big win for us but we need a lot of road wins. Would they have defended us easier had WR started? I wondered that a lot today...They really seemed to spread the floor well. But I believe a lot of it had to do with Ellis being able to step outside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOSLU68 Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 I wondered that a lot today...They really seemed to spread the floor well. But I believe a lot of it had to do with Ellis being able to step outside. for a guy who talks too much RM can keep a secret; what would you do if you practised all week shutting down Willie and he is at the end of the bench with his street clothes on. Did anyone notice we won both halves? In fact with a little better defensive concentration at the end of first half we could have gone to intermission with a six point lead-how sweet that would have been. I can't wait to see WR, Conklin, CE on the floor at the same time with KM driving and the fifth guy can be anyone else RM feels like putting in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlumniFan Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 for a guy who talks too much RM can keep a secret; what would you do if you practised all week shutting down Willie and he is at the end of the bench with his street clothes on. I cannot help but wonder if Majerus knew what he was doing all along with the "Ellis is fleshy", "Ellis cannot hit the rim", "Ellis is a midget" talk, in light of the entire situation including Willie. I am sure that opposing teams watching tape construct their game plan at least somewhat around defending Willie. With him out of the game and the (false) expectation that Ellis, who is probably barely expected to play, will not be a factor, tonight's line-up and play had to confuse the Spiders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 I cannot help but wonder if Majerus knew what he was doing all along with the "Ellis is fleshy", "Ellis cannot hit the rim", "Ellis is a midget" talk, in light of the entire situation including Willie. I am sure that opposing teams watching tape construct their game plan at least somewhat around defending Willie. With him out of the game and the (false) expectation that Ellis, who is probably barely expected to play, will not be a factor, tonight's line-up and play had to confuse the Spiders. I have to agree. It seemed like RM had this figured all along. I don't know if he knew CE would be this good all in the first game, but it sure seemed to play along that sort of game plan. CE looked like a stud tonite, pure and simple. Everything I could have hoped for happened in the first game! Imagine him and WR in a game together...how do you defend that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
For-DaLove Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 On FSN they were talking about how the Richmond coach was out watching Ellis shoot 2 hours before the game because he had no idea what to expect and didn't have any tape on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runnin'Billiken Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Ok, the above is noted Running Bill Would the NCAA committee ever look at our "with Cody Ellis" record and say this team is a completely different team than the one who lost to bowling green. They went 13-3 in the 5th highest ranking conference, they deserve a shot even though their RPI is higher than 50. There are some outliers every year and at least we would have an excuse to be one of those outliers... Yes, they would take something like Ellis' late arrival into consideration, however we could still go 13-3, make the A10 final, and be booking ticket to the NIT and not the dance. Even if they consider the entire season before Ellis a wash and go 16-4 with him for 26-9 overall, we still need one thing that we don't have: quality road wins. We play Dayton, X, Rhody, Temple, and Richmond at home, and even those 5 wins won't get us there. Our only tourney calibre road games are Richmond and Dayton, plus anyone we see in the tournament. It would take winning at least two of those types of games. We played some nice neutral court games in Chicago, but unfortunately didn't win any. for NIT: 11-5, win two of our "tough" remaining home games, beat Dayton or Richmond on the road, and beat one of those 5 in the tournament. It would be more feasible to win the tournament than get an at large. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westy03 Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Yes, they would take something like Ellis' late arrival into consideration, however we could still go 13-3, make the A10 final, and be booking ticket to the NIT and not the dance. Even if they consider the entire season before Ellis a wash and go 16-4 with him for 26-9 overall, we still need one thing that we don't have: quality road wins. We play Dayton, X, Rhody, Temple, and Richmond at home, and even those 5 wins won't get us there. Our only tourney calibre road games are Richmond and Dayton, plus anyone we see in the tournament. It would take winning at least two of those types of games. We played some nice neutral court games in Chicago, but unfortunately didn't win any. for NIT: 11-5, win two of our "tough" remaining home games, beat Dayton or Richmond on the road, and beat one of those 5 in the tournament. It would be more feasible to win the tournament than get an at large. I like the excitement but lets figure out how to beat Fordham on the road before we talk about posteason tournaments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 On FSN they were talking about how the Richmond coach was out watching Ellis shoot 2 hours before the game because he had no idea what to expect and didn't have any tape on him.His FIBA Jr World Championship games are available. He must have not looked very hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BillikenReport Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 I like the excitement but lets figure out how to beat Fordham on the road before we talk about posteason tournaments. SLU needs to beat someone -- anyone -- on the road before talk of any tournaments. The Billikens are 25-4 at Chaifetz so far and if I remember correctly they are 25-2 with Kwamain Mitchell at Chaifetz because he misses two of those losses. The two losses with Kwamain were against Kent State in OT and La Salle in the regular season finale last season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonwich Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Again, we're just dreamin' here -- but another variable is the "last ten games" theory. If we get consistently better and go 9-1 for our last 10 games, losing in the conference final, we would have beaten Rhode Island, Temple and Xavier plus Dayton twice -- plus possibly at least one of those teams in the tournament. I do note that either through our own scheduling or through the usual disrespect we receive, we have no "bracket buster" game or other out-of-conference game for the rest of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Nick ---- you're insane. Oky, maybe that's a little over the top but weren't you the same guy throwing this team under the bus as they flopped at Bowling Grren? I'm too lazy to go back and check but I think so .... No value judgment here, you are free to go where you want but I think, in the larger picture, to go from that cold on this team (Bowling Green) to at-large hot after one game (Richmond) is a fan's-eye-view of the ups and downs that are youth --- yours and this team. I am with Nate --- this team has shown no ability to win on the road. Yet. Cody's presence might help with that but only time will tell. I won't tell anyone yet what I predicted this team to do but it wasn't nice and it included beating these guys in one of our two games with them We seem to do well against Richmond ---- much like our opposite issue with the Bonnies. So stay thirsty my friend but temper it for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 I like the excitement but lets figure out how to beat Fordham on the road before we talk about posteason tournaments. The good news is that we play Fordham at home, so we don't have to worry about beating them on the road. The bad news is that we do not play Fordham on the road, so all of our road games are against semi-competent teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonwich Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 I was shocked to find out that Fordham appears to be the largest Jesuit university in America. And they can't upgrade their gym? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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