brianstl Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 Just noticed we have moved up to 93 in RPI. Not great, but better than I thought we would be at this point. Kenpom has us at 98 in his rankings. We haven't finished in the top 100 of Ken Poms ratings system since 2004. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 Just noticed we have moved up to 93 in RPI. Not great, but better than I thought we would be at this point. Kenpom has us at 98 in his rankings. We haven't finished in the top 100 of Ken Poms ratings system since 2004. We certainly have some opportunities to notch rpi-boosting wins in the upcoming months. An nit appearance would be huge for this team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonwich Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 More immediately, a win at Bowling Green would be huge for this team. A few weeks ago, several posters were commenting that 11-3 was possible -- and, indeed, expected among those who have raised the bar for our expectations. The loss to Mo. State was painful but certainly not demoralizing in context. Aside from the effect of a critical injury, we ran the non-conference table at home. I would have liked two road/neutral wins pre-conference, but one will certainly add confidence for the rest of our road games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenbooster Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 We certainly have some opportunities to notch rpi-boosting wins in the upcoming months. An nit appearance would be huge for this team. I hate to say it, but this next game Sat is HUGE. A road win will be a great emotion lift for the youngsters on the team. They will have won it without CE. I reality, I see CE contributing toward the end of the conference season. Up til then it will probably be just a few minutes/half. Wish he could have been here a few weeks earlier, but it is what it is. Most of our road conference games are with lesser teams in the RPI listings for our conference. Picking up some road wins there might counterbalance possible home losses to Temple/X/Dayton/Richmond. Agree that NIT is within reach. The next two games will tell a lot. mhg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 what appears is going to be the make or break of the season for the billikens to exceed expectations is to win some conference road games. realtime rpi has us losing every single conference road game and finishing 6-10 in the a-10. if we could win 2 of those road games and finish 8-8 it would probably put us at about 18 wins and imo a good season that exceeded expectations. more than that probably puts us on at minimum nit radar and depending on the configuration of our conference losses and where we end up in the conference (i.e. 10-6 and tied for 4th or 5th) probably the ncaa. to be honest unless a couple more players step up their play besides reed and mitchell, i tend to think realtime rpi is pretty close to what is going to play out, but i have to admit that this team has me intrigued and i can see better possibly happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted December 31, 2009 Author Share Posted December 31, 2009 what appears is going to be the make or break of the season for the billikens to exceed expectations is to win some conference road games. realtime rpi has us losing every single conference road game and finishing 6-10 in the a-10. if we could win 2 of those road games and finish 8-8 it would probably put us at about 18 wins and imo a good season that exceeded expectations. more than that probably puts us on at minimum nit radar and depending on the configuration of our conference losses and where we end up in the conference (i.e. 10-6 and tied for 4th or 5th) probably the ncaa. to be honest unless a couple more players step up their play besides reed and mitchell, i tend to think realtime rpi is pretty close to what is going to play out, but i have to admit that this team has me intrigued and i can see better possibly happening. That is the thing. The team has me intrigued. Like bonwich and booster said above, we should get a better idea after Bowling Green. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 what appears is going to be the make or break of the season for the billikens to exceed expectations is to win some conference road games. realtime rpi has us losing every single conference road game and finishing 6-10 in the a-10. if we could win 2 of those road games and finish 8-8 it would probably put us at about 18 wins and imo a good season that exceeded expectations. more than that probably puts us on at minimum nit radar and depending on the configuration of our conference losses and where we end up in the conference (i.e. 10-6 and tied for 4th or 5th) probably the ncaa. to be honest unless a couple more players step up their play besides reed and mitchell, i tend to think realtime rpi is pretty close to what is going to play out, but i have to admit that this team has me intrigued and i can see better possibly happening. We need to start getting points from somewere other than wr and km. CS, FJ, KC someone has to step up and take that third scorer role. Then, by the end of the year, hopefully cody is getting ius something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 realtime rpi has us losing every single conference road game and finishing 6-10 in the a-10. if we could win 2 of those road games and finish 8-8 it would probably put us at about 18 wins and imo a good season that exceeded expectations.IF the Bills beat Bowling Green and win 8 out of the 16 conference games, as you suggest, their record will be 17-12 in the RPI. I suspect it will take no less than 9-7 for the Bills to get an NIT bid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 what appears is going to be the make or break of the season for the billikens to exceed expectations is to win some conference road games. realtime rpi has us losing every single conference road game and finishing 6-10 in the a-10. if we could win 2 of those road games and finish 8-8 it would probably put us at about 18 wins and imo a good season that exceeded expectations. more than that probably puts us on at minimum nit radar and depending on the configuration of our conference losses and where we end up in the conference (i.e. 10-6 and tied for 4th or 5th) probably the ncaa. to be honest unless a couple more players step up their play besides reed and mitchell, i tend to think realtime rpi is pretty close to what is going to play out, but i have to admit that this team has me intrigued and i can see better possibly happening. I can't tell you where but I have $20 that says we will win at least 2 confrence road games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 IF the Bills beat Bowling Green and win 8 out of the 16 conference games, as you suggest, their record will be 17-12 in the RPI. I suspect it will take no less than 9-7 for the Bills to get an NIT bid. heck T, give em a win in the conference tourney to get to 18. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 heck T, give em a win in the conference tourney to get to 18. I admit that I didn't consider the A-10 Tournament. Would 8-8 guarantee a first-round home game? It probably would, but there's a chance there could be more than eight teams with 8 wins, particularly with a few stinky teams in the conference. If the Bills go on the road to begin the A-10 Tourney, I don't like their chances of advancing. I'm hoping for 9-7 or better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 I can't tell you where but I have $20 that says we will win at least 2 confrence road games. I expect 3 conference road wins. Using Sagarin's predictor for future conference away games, the Bills have a cumulative 38% chance of winning (varying from a 22% chance at Dayton to a 54% chance at UMass*) their 8 conference away games. So the "objective expectation" for conference road games is 3 wins. Predicting 2 conference wins does make the probability of being right much greater. The Bills will likely be slight favorites with UMass and possibly St. Joe's. *I will be in attendance so that goes up to at least 54.1%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 I expect 3 conference road wins. Using Sagarin's predictor for future conference away games, the Bills have a cumulative 38% chance of winning (varying from a 22% chance at Dayton to a 54% chance at UMass*) their 8 conference away games. So the "objective expectation" for conference road games is 3 wins. Predicting 2 conference wins does make the probability of being right much greater. The Bills will likely be slight favorites with UMass and possibly St. Joe's. *I will be in attendance so that goes up to at least 54.1%. So you are telling me I'd make a pretty good gambler. No takers yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 I don't know anything about Bowling Green except last night, they came to town and beat a below average Towson team 70 to 69. Seems Towson made a late run to close the score but the outcome was not in doubt. Anguish on the local scene as Bill & Mare went into Twerpland and beat Maryland pretty handily even though there again the final was a "close" six, 83 to 77. Seems tome that this comign game will show a lot. I don't know where the Wiz stands but I'm guessing the Falcons will be favored. Bills win here and it is possible then to draw the connection that they will win those few conference games. Lose and, well, there we go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 So you are telling me I'd make a pretty good gambler. No takers yet. Exactly. Apologies for ruining it a bit though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 Its interesting the way the A-10 schedule works out for the Bills this year. They play a couple of the A-10's best at home (Xavier and Temple) and play a couple of the A-10's worst on the road (St. Joes and UMass). Their home and homes are against good teams (Dayton, Richmond, to a lesser extent Duquesne). SLU may have the toughest overall schedule in the A-10. However, I think with the tougher teams at home and some easier teams on the road it is sort of a high risk / high reward schedule. Instead of having easy wins and almost certain losses, they have a lot of games that should be close. Depending upon how the team matures, I think they could do pretty well if they can turn lose 50/50 games into wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 So you are telling me I'd make a pretty good gambler. No takers yet. not with this team. i have no idea what to expect from night to night except kwamain seems to be a given and reed pretty much so. however the last two games have been somewhat more challenging for reed. the rest of our team is a night to night "guess who's showing up tonite" game. that said, imo they have potential, so to take the negative view and say they definitely wont step up is tough to take. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 From the site KWJIBO just posted on another thread. http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/St.%20Louis.html If one scrolls down, it shows the various possible records and a best guess of where that puts us at year-end RPI. 17-12 is the most likely outcome with an RPI of 114. Its a very cool site. If you go to the conference RPI predictor, it "predicts" the A-10 will finish 6th overall but will have 4 teams (Temple, Richmond, Xavier and RI) with RPIs of 34 or better and Dayton not too far behind in the mid 40s. http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/A10.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 -isn't it good to be having this kind of discussion? imagine future years when we are talking about seeds. i hope it only gets better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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