The Wiz
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Posts posted by The Wiz
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7 minutes ago, CenHudDude said:
Wiz do you have a typo or am I missing something? In order for us to win you have us holding five of their guys to 91 points. Do you have the Billikens scoring 93 to win by 2?
Sorry I wasn't clear enough ....I have changed "them" to Loy -C....we still win by 2
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General Outlook....And we begin conference play.... As I mentioned in the preconference forecast, parity will be a major factor in a lot of A-10 games. For the Bills, this is what we will have to do to finish 4th or higher in the league. We need to win a lot of close games, starting with this one. It also means we will have to win some games on the road. No simple task...but possible. The good news is that if we start winning games and beating spreads we can improve our ranking quickly. Fourth place is not just about getting a double bye...but it is level we need to be at to compete in post season. I asked the computer what team is at the center of the D1 universe...the exact middle ....the true average bball team in D1...The answer as we head into our first conference game is...The Bills. The projected fourth place A-10 team right now is a B+.... a long road to go ...but with parity plus 2 additions(Ezewiro and Parker), it is possible.
Game Preview....Loy-Chi comes to town with a B-....SOS ...D-....The Bills have an overall grade of C with an SOS of B-. The Ramblers have played a relatively easy schedule , especially compared to the BIlls so their record isn't real meaningful. We are a better shooting 3P team and a better shooting FT team plus they turnover prone. ...BUT...there are some warnings ...they have 3 guys who can shoot from the arc(40%+)...they have a FT shooter who is shooting 95% from the line.... they have a center who is a fly swatter...top 10 in blks......they play defense....the question is ...will we? If we do... they will TO the ball over....if we do they will miss from the arc...if we do... we will win
Report Card....
Report card... The report card is showing negative with 3 categories up and 4 down. Offense is passable...the defense needs to pick it up a bit.
....................SLU...........Loy-Ch..........SLU.....................Loy-Ch
..............................OFF..........................................DEF.............
PPG...............C-................C-................D-.............................B
FG%...............C.................B..................D-.............................A-
3P%...............A-................B..................C...............................D-
FT%...............B..................D+.....................................................
Reb...............D-.................C+................D...............................B+
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
UP...............Off....FT%...FG%......Def.....Reb
Down.........Off......PPG...3P%.......Def....PPG...FG%
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU
none
Loy-Ch
Ast....Norris....35th
Blks....Rubin....9th
FT%...Norris...12th(95%)
3P%....Edwards...67th (48%)
Injury /Illness report and misc
The Bills....
Magassa ...Dec 20 ...out for the season....eligibility
Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot....no more recent official updates
Loy-Chi....
none
Keys to the Game.......Play D and make some shots. ...Avoid Rubin their shot blocker....Their weaknesses are 3P D and FT shooting...which are our strengths....Don't foul Norris their FT shooter and get some good looks from the arc....Make the slash
WWN2D2W...Target slash...46/39/73....Try to stay within 3 rebs....Beat them in TOs by 3....Guard Norris , Dawson and Edwards , all 40%+ from the arc....Hold Loy-C to 70 pts....hold Watson and Alston to 21 pts...in a pinch Alston is their go to guy...
Bottom line....If the Bills play their game, Loyola will Ramble out of town with a loss.
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General outlook
The outlook for the A-10 is parity as it is with D-1 schools overall. Parity means a move to the middle ...good schools aren't as good and bad schools aren't as bad....with differences between good and bad narrowing. You can see that in the A-10....only 1 good team and 1 bad team (no not us). Parity in the A-10 today means 10 of the 15 teams are around grade B ...ie little difference between them. There will be a number of "upsets" in conference play this year. While teams and fans will be surprised, part of what will be happening will be parity at work. The reasons for parity increasing is the NIL and easier transferring. This is a trend that not only will continue but will become more pronounced as NIL monies increase and transferring becomes even easier. The word "rebuild" has new meaning. Ten years ago, rebuild was a process of 3-4 years of adding players and developing them into a winning team. Now that can be done in a year using NIL and transfer. One only has to look at the current NET to see the difference...Fla Atl...6th in NET....Indiana St...23rd and ahead of NC and KY...James Madison ...30th and ahead of Nova and Mich St and even Liberty at 48th is ahead of 12-0 Ole Miss. If The Bills step up their NIL game they could take a big step up ...fast.
A-10 outlook
In this year's A-10 forecast , I have changed from a regular report card ...to a super report card. Besides showing my own program , I have also included 3 other important and popular ranking services for comparisons....The NET, Vegas and KenPom. I will assume that all readers here know what the NET and KenPom are. The Vegas ranking is a compilation of all the sports books in Vegas using their Base. The Base is what the true ranking of a team is before any betting is done...the Base that Vegas uses as a starting point...once betting starts the numbers skew.
As you all know , I like to use grades on everything....not only because it is more college like but it helps deal with parity. Grades put teams that are similar in the the same category. For instance when you see a team that is #225 vs #168 you say big difference. Yet to me, it is a C- vs a C...a minor difference ...Or a #35 team vs a #17 team...you might think not much difference there but it is an A- vs an A+... a bigger difference between those teams than the 225 vs 168 ones.
So then, to make this all work for comparisons sake, I have converted all the different rankings...KenPom, Vegas and The NET to a grade system to evaluate the upcoming A-10 conference.
The Super Report Card.....Enjoy....We will discuss afterwards...
...................The Wiz...........The NET...........KenPom.....Vegas
1. Day..............A......................A......................A-................B+
2. St. J............B+....................B+....................B+................B
3. GM..............B+....................B+.....................B................B-
4. Duq.............B+.....................B+....................B................B+
5. VCU.............B.......................B......................B.................B
6. St. B.............B......................B+....................B+...............B
7. Rich..............B.......................B......................B.................B-
8. UMass.........B.......................B......................B.................B-
9. GW...............B-.....................B-.....................C+..............C+
10. Dav.............B-.....................B-.....................B-...............B-
11. Loy..............B-......................C+....................C+.............B
12. LaS............C+......................C+.....................C..............C
13. SLU............C........................C-......................C-............C+
14. Fham.........C-.......................D+......................C-...........C+
15. RI................D+......................D+.......................D+.........C
It is interesting to note that of the 3 rankings , I am the closest to the NET...The Wiz... 10 matches (including 9 0f the top 10)....KenPom ...9 matches ...Vegas 3 matches...Of course, Vegas just uses their rankings as a starting point before betting. While the A-10 is a small sample size , it seems to hold on the larger D1 model....The Wiz 251 matches....KP....222....Vegas 72. The NET itself is setup as though every day is selection Sunday...no forecasting ...let's just pick teams today.
It is not an accident that my model is close to the NET...that's the way I planned it. I would argue that I had the NET before the NCAA. In those days when the NCAA used the RPI ...strange things use to happen to get teams Dancing. So I modified the RPI into an adjusted RPI to forecast not only games but the NCAA picks. The NCAA then came up with a new system...The NET...which looked a lot like my adjusted RPI...I made some further adjustments and have a model that can forecast games and Dance bids.....It will never be exact ....there is a purposeful 15-20% fudge factor in the NET....that factor is the human /subjective factor.....You know in case you need to get a favorite team in (Power 5).
As for the super report card, there is good news and bad news.....The bad news is we are showing as a PIG team right now. The good news is that with Parker coming back and Ezewiro playing a larger part of the 2nd half of the season that even a small boost would be huge in parity A-10. In addition, since we are the underdog in most games going forward... wins and beating the spreads will help us make up ground. Do you remember all those years when we were winning games and people said it was hard to move up in the rankings because the A10 teams weren't that good .....Not true this year...win and we make up ground.
Keys to the conference...The computer doesn't see us winning the A10 but it does see us with a chance to make it to 4th which gives us a chance to Dance. Assuming the normal... we win some we weren't supposed to and lose some we should have won and those games even out ....I asked the computer how do we get to 4th place? First, we need to get to a grade of B which the computer thinks is doable. It thinks that 4th place will be taken by a B team. It sees 4 key games for The Bills.... Win GM away (Jan 6)....win Duq away (Feb 20) and then at least split with St. J starting with a win on Jan 10 at home....So the next 3 games are important....The Loy game to get ourselves together and then the GM and St. J which are key matchups.
Bottom line....If we can stay healthy and avoid shooting 8% from the arc with no 10 TO differential games, we can do some damage in the A10 and give ourselves a chance to Dance.......
Protect the ball
And make some 3s
Get a rebound
And we'll win with ease.
TheChosenOne, BrettJollyComedyHour, stmdragons and 3 others like this -
Just a couple of notes....
For those that are wondering how the players are selected for the poem...it is based on total minutes played.....from most to least. A nod to Thames who just missed making the reindeer team by 5 min. I am sure he will make the story next year.
Also , who would have thought those would have been our top 6 players in that order....btw, Jimerson was the only player to return to the story this year...TJ didn't have enough minutes last year to make it...What a difference a year makes.
Finally, let us remember... why we are all here....to see The Bills... have a successful year.
Peace on Earth and to all Bills fans.
Bay Area Billiken and TheChosenOne like this -
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
'Twas the night before Christmas when all through the Fetz
Nothing was stirring, not even the nets;
The banners were hung from the rafters with care,
In hopes that The Wiz would soon be there;
The fans were nestled all snug in their seats;
With visions of Bills wins, while they munched on their treats.
And Mama in her sweatshirt, and I in Bills blue
Had just settled in to watch a basket or two.
When on Compton and 40 there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from my seat to see what was the matter.
Away to the window I flew like a flash
And then flung open the door, in a very mad dash
The moon on the breast of the new fallen snow,
Gave the luster of mid-day to objects below;
When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,,
But a basketball team as quick as reindeer,
With a little old driver, so lively and all biz,
I knew in a moment it must be The Wiz.
More rapid than eagles his coursers they came,
And he whistled and shouted and called them by name:
Now! Jimerson, now! Hargrove, now! Dalger, oh my lord,
On! Medley, on! Meadows, on! Hughes, and Coach Ford;
To the top of Gate A ! To the top of the wall !
" Now dash away ! Dash away ! Dash away all !"
As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly,
When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky;
So up to the arena top the coursers they flew,
With a sleigh load of stats and The Wiz too:
And then in a twinkling I heard on the floor
The bouncing of b-balls making baskets galore.
As I drew in my head, and was turning around,
Down Section 103 The Wiz came with a bound:
He was dressed all in Bills gear, from his head to his toe,
And his clothes were all blue, he was ready to go;
A bundle of spreads was flung on his back,
And he looked like a peddler just opening his pack:
His eyes- how they twinkled ! His dimples: how merry,
His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry;
His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow,
And the beard on his chin was as white as the snow;
The stump of a pipe he held tight in his teeth,
And the smoke it encircled his head like a wreath.
He had a broad face, and a little round belly
That shook when he laughed, like a bowl full of jelly:
He was chubby and plump, just like a Billiken,
And I laughed when I saw him and thought Gee Williken;
A wink of his eye and a twist of his head
Soon gave me to know that The Wiz had a spread.
He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work,
And calculated point spreads, ; then turned with a jerk,
And laying his finger aside of his nose
And giving a nod,… BAM …up the concourse he rose.
He sprang in the Chaifetz , to his team gave a whistle,
And away they all flew like the down of a thistle:
But I heard him exclaim, as he shouted out clear--
BILLIKENS WILL WIN, IT WILL BE BETTER NEXT YEAR
To all that follow the Billiken Biz
Merry Christmas to all , best wishes from The Wiz
Slu let the dogs out?, Billikenbooster, BrettJollyComedyHour and 9 others like this -
Unfortunately, you hate to nail it when it is a double digit loss.
The sad thing is this was a very winnable game....it would have been a quality win on the road. Why do I say this was a winnable game. Because we didn't have to do anything special. Had we just played our normal game ....make Billiken season averages in 2 areas ...we win.
1. TOs... 18-6 ..A difference of 12...When you have a 10 spread on TOs that is usually an automatic loss. This was compounded by a horrible stat of 29-2 on pts off . Had we just made our season average of 11 TOs, NC St has 12 less pts. Hmm...12 pts ...that sounds familiar.
2. 3P shooting....8%( 1-12)...had we made our season average of 39%....we have 4 more 3s = 12pts ...12 again
If we do both 1 and 2 (not an unusual feat) we win by ...wait for it ...12 pts...the trifecta of 12s.
Of course we were winning with a little over 12 min left.
Bottom line....Hickory , dickory, dock....The Bills ran up the clock....The clock struck 12 , The Bills ran down and NC State turned the game into a lock.
CenHudDude and Young Charles like this -
I checked the data again today and 1 standard deviation is showing NC St. winning by 6-15 pts...with the final outcome around 10-12 pts.....Also there was a footnote that said if The Bills are trailing by 6 with a minute left...give the ball to Hargrove...over and over and over....
CenHudDude, AGB91 and cgeldmacher like this -
What a great game against LaT....For more info see the post game wrap up in the LaT spread thread...also the 5 second thread for a virtual reality second by second "what if" finish.
General Outlook....Last game, I mentioned we were at a turning point or crossroads and that was before the TRO was announced. It seems like we have taken the first step in the turnaround. Doesn't mean that it will be smooth sailing from here but over the coming games things should get better. The report card below is a good example ....we were up in 5 categories and down in none. However we still have a ways to go before we are respectable especially on defense....One step at a time.
Game Preview....Another tough one in NC St.....currently at an A-...this won't be the toughest team we play all year but this game may be the toughest...playing a quality opponent on the road. The NET shows them as an NIT team ...I have them as a borderline team...bordering between NIT and the Dance. Bottom line ...after coming off a loss, this is a big game for the Wolfpack to keep their Dance dreams alive. As for the Bills, we slipped down a bit to a grade of C. How can this be?...We just won 2 games over fairly tough opponents.. The reason is we did what we were supposed to do...the games were even and we played them even, so theoretically we should move sideways....but if a few teams behind you do well they can jump over you and knock you back a little. That's what happened here. The good news is almost all the teams we have remaining on the schedule will have higher grades than us . If we keep winning , we can move up the ladder easier. As you can see by the spread it won't be easy. But as I have said before , there is no one on the schedule that we can't beat. NC St is not the best team we have played (that would be USU). But because we will be playing on the Wolfpack court this makes this game as tough as USU. If you look at the report card below, we are fairly close to NC St.
They play 4 guards and a forward...we have seen this before ....3 guards and the forward will play most of the game. Burns is their big guy...6'9" & 275..he will be a load. The other 2 to watch are Taylor and Horne...they are their 3 point shooters. Stop those 3 and we win.
Report Card....
Report card... after the last game the card is positive ...5 up ...0 down...Going forward, I will add SOS to the report card...If a team gets straight A's and has only played bottom feeders , it may not be as good as straight B's from a team that has played top teams.
SOS....NC St...B....The Bills... B-
...................SLU......................NC St........................SLU............................NC St
.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............
PPG...............C........................B...........................D........................................C
FG%...............C-.....................C+..........................D.......................................C
3P%...............A+..16th ITN......B-...........................C.....................................D-
FT%...............B-.........................C+................................................
Reb...............D-..........................C..........................D-...................................D-
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
UP...............Off....PPG...FG%...3P%......Def.....FG%...3P%
Down.........Off......none.........................Def....none
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU
none
NC St
none
Injury /Illness report and misc
The Bills....
Meadows...Dec 16...Questionable for Sat....Back
Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot
NC St....
none
Keys to the Game......Turnovers...we have been pretty good about protecting the ball...we need to force some turnovers. Control their big 3 ...Taylor and Horne from the arc and Burns from around the boards. We need to make shots especially the bunnies and layups.
WWN2D2W...Target slash...48/51/40/73....Keep Taylor and Horne under 40% from the arc. Beat them on the boards...this is not a typo ... The numbers show it is possible....Beat them on TOs...Hold them to 71 pts....Hold their top 3 scorers to 34 pts.
Bottom line....If we can shut them down from the arc and if Ezewiro can handle Burns, we can send the Wolfpack howling.
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9 minutes ago, Aquinas said:
I think the right thing may come down to who has the advantage in OT. We were down Dalger, Ez and I think coach said Thames was done. They had everyone. In this case I think OT advantage to them and that assumes we stop them on their last possession. So TJ at 35 to 40% on a 3 is probably the better bet and if they missed one of the FTs you only need a 2 to win and that's more like 50%.
I think the quick foul was probably an accident, but was also the best move.
There is general strategy and then there is this specific situation. I think in this specific situation the computer thought it was OK to foul. Had you asked it before the game or in general, I think it would have said not too foul. But in this case, it has seen 39+ min of play and is making a different decision. I think the computer weighs heavily on the better shooting team (us)....and who will be the key players in the final 7 sec and/or OT. We are the better shooting team. In the final 5 sec LaT hasn't crossed half court yet and Newman(25/0/50) is the wrong guy with the ball. He would cross half court looking for Batcho or Crawford at the 3 second mark...he might call a time out or not....either way it would be a pass and shoot in one motion to Bat or Craw at the buzzer...it would have to be a perfect pass and a difficult shot....likely outcome... OT. By fouling you go from almost certain OT to 24% chance loss ...38% OT....38% win.
In OT , the computer looks at each team's "go to" guys....Batcho and Crawford ...and Jimerson and Hargrove....They all were the leading scorers and the shot takers in the game...for LaT their pair looked like this ...52/40/67...for the Bills, GJ and TJ...62/60/80...advantage Bills...so probably a Bills win in OT.
I agree with you on the foul...I am sure it was unintended...all you had to do was watch GJs reaction and you knew he was upset about the play. But the Bills won both in the simulation and in real life....it was meant to be.
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39 minutes ago, Aquinas said:
Foul. If the shooter makes both. A 2 point basket ties, a 3 wins. If shooter makes 1, a 2 wins. If he misses the second shot, must get rebound and get up the floor in 5 sec.
What were the odds of them scoring in 5 sec. We had Ez and Dalger out.
Then there is the specifics on the odds of winning in overtime. We were at home. On the other hand Ez and Dalger had fouled out and they had everyone, including their bigs.
I think OT favored them. They gained on us the second half with Ez and Dalger.
What do you think? What does rhe Wiz think?
I think the foul was the right thing to do. If we don't foul them they have a 54% chance to score in the final 7 sec(the time they received the ball)...either by FT or basket with no time left and we lose. By stopping the clock with the foul we have a 56% chance to win. There was a good chance Neuman might miss one of those 2 FTs as he was shooting 50%(2-4) from the charity stripe.
In the simulation, where we don't foul and they miss the shot at the buzzer, we go to OT. In OT , the computer still shows an even game. In the simulation with 1 min left in OT ,.....the game is tied Hargrove drives to the basket through heavy traffic ....whistle foul ...count the basket. FT is good...Bills by 3 ....LaT brings the ball up and we steal the ball (1st TO for LaT). We go into the weave and LaT fouls us . GJ sinks 2 ....we lead by 5 and with seconds left LaT scores an uncontested layup at the buzzer and the Bills win by 3 in OT....Chances of winning in OT for the Bills ....54%.
Some may say giving up 2 points and depending on a long shot to win is not the right thing to do. It is definitely unconventional ...and a long shot to win....BUT the Bills had 18 long shots in the game and made 56% (higher than their 2P%). You have to go with what's working and the Bills did . While this is a play you would never draw up ...the computer liked the play and the narrow odds favoring the Bills.
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9 minutes ago, almaman said:
73 is the added stat for 2 pt shot in this case?
No....73 is the FT stat. A 4 part slash reads like this...FG%/ 2P%/ 3P%/ FT%
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Post Game Review
One of the best Bills games ever....Not to mention one of the best finishes of all time.
Tip o' the cap to Hargrove who in the final 28 seconds of the game put the Billiken team on his back and carried them to victory by scoring 11 points in the final 28 seconds of a game. I know of no D1 game where 1 player scores that many points in the final 28 seconds to win a game. Amazing. I saw the Bills beat number 2 ranked Louisville ...this game was right up there with that one in intensity and excitement.
Also , a 2nd tip o' the cap to Ezewiro making his debut ... 17 pts( 6-9 FG%). ..5 rebs(battling under the boards against the big bodies) and did all that in only 19 min. Does anyone remember any posts on the board that said ...what good is a player that averages 4 ppg on a losing , horrible GT team?
As for the "Ezwiro effect"....Let me repost a comment I made in the "2023-24 season" thread yesterday before the game.....
I think some posters are missing the point on the "Ezewiro effect"....It is not just about the points and the rebounds but the "X" factor. Players will go back to their more normal positions. There will be more opportunities to score ...for everyone. There will be more depth. We will no longer be as predictable. In other words , he makes the team better by just being in the mix. The concept of 4+1=6. For those having trouble grasping this concept, you have company as the computer too has this issue. But as outcomes and stats change the computer will adapt and "see" what is going on. Hopefully so will our fan base.
Of course, after the game the computer thinks it's right...."see it was an even game" (meaning there was little "Ezewiro effect") but I argue back saying that even though we didn't increase the spread by a meaningful amount that doesn't mean their wasn't an "Ezewiro effect" not just because of his stats but because of the intangibles I mentioned above. After some back and forth the computer now agrees with me.....knowing that I can unplug it at any time. Hmm....don't you wish you could do that with some posters.
Time to see what happened in the game...
Some strange stuff in this game......we shot better from 3 than from 2.... LaT had NO TOs in the game ....something that hasn't happened in D1 in 14 years. We had 10 TOs which is an A+ score but in this game was a disaster....usually if you are on the downside of a 10 TO spread that spells automatic loss...usually, but not yesterday as we had the TJ point machine. LaT had 12 pts off TOs...TJ nearly wiped that out in 28 sec.
So what was the key to winning...the SLASH....here was the projected slash... make it and we win the game (WWN2D2W)...47/51/39/73...and here is the actual....54/53/56/73.....Very nice line....As you have noticed , earlier this season I added 2P shooting to the slash....not something you normally see in a box score. I did so because when we started losing , one of the main reasons was missed 2 pt shots...bunnies and layups. The last 2 games against good teams that issue seems to be resolving itself. This bodes well for the team going forward. Shooting percentages ebb and flow...but you have got to make the bunnies and layups to win.
And finally from the original post above.....The computer thought this was going to be an important game , even before the TRO...The TRO just puts an exclamation point on it. Besides the fact that the game is even...the computer sees the Bills season as even...as though this is a crossroads.. A win and the Bills can start to turn it around , a loss and we will continue to struggle. .This statement was true before the game and it is even more true afterwards.
Bottom line....There were forecasting gurus that said a little over a week ago we wouldn't win anymore games until the end of January. I think I will stick to my computer and pass on the pundits.
CenHudDude and David King like this -
I think some posters are missing the point on the "Ezewiro effect"....It is not just about the points and the rebounds but the "X" factor. Players will go back to their more normal positions. There will be more opportunities to score ...for everyone. There will be more depth. We will no longer be as predictable. In other words , he makes the team better by just being in the mix. The concept of 4+1=6. For those having trouble grasping this concept, you have company as the computer too has this issue. But as outcomes and stats change the computer will adapt and "see" what is going on. Hopefully so will our fan base.
In my original post , the computer refused to change the spread if Ezewiro was added to the roster. It did say that for this game there was a 70% chance that the game would fall within a +5 to -5 range. It said if we win by more than 5 then it would attribute any overage to an "Ezewiro effect". Anything less than a 5 pt win would be considered little effect. Of course this is just one game. For instance if you have a series of forecasted close games and we win them all then the computer will again sense something different is happening. And finally , if we start to exceed spreads consistently, it will indicate a new trend.
We will see.
billikenbill, SLU_Nick and CenHudDude like this -
40 minutes ago, Billikenswin said:
Deal was made to extend TRO into next spring. No retaliation against school or player allowed when double transfers start playing now. Great news for Brad and the Bills.
I guess the NCAA read my post above ....I think the key line that got them was about how "they spit in the face of the judge" The whole point of the TRO was to do no harm to the players and in 24 hours the NCAA did harm. After wiping themselves out legally they have decided to do the right thing.... Who is in charge at the NCAA....Goofy or Pluto?
CenHudDude likes this -
From a risk prospective, Ezewiro has already taken the big risk. He did so months ago when he became a 2 time transfer. Turns out that was a 10 % chance of winning. The next gamble is... should he play the next 2 weeks. That success probability starts out at about 70%. Is that a hypothetical guess? No...The judge doesn't grant a TRO unless there is a high probability the players will win the case. That plus the fact that he will probably grant another order for the same reason in a couple of weeks...ie to continue to prevent harm to the players. The judge has implied you have a good chance of winning...the next order or legal proceeding will probably last at least 3 months and therefore will make the whole issue of burning a year of eligibility a moot point as the season will be over by then.
The judge's stance is he wants to protect the players...Now that the NCAA has spit in the face of the judge by trying to nullify and over turn his ruling and cause further harm to the players by making it more difficult to play (threatening players with a 1 year burn) the probability of player having a successful out come probably increases to 80%.
The players and the schools took a a 10% chance of successful outcome at the start of the season. Why not take the 80% chance of success now. Some may argue ...yeah but at least you don't burn a year of eligibility...True ...instead you burn a year of your life...a strange trade off.
To the NCAA....by trying to save themselves they are hastening their death. LET THE KIDS PLAY.
TheChosenOne, SLU_Lax, TheA_Bomb and 2 others like this -
Read this and you will see why Ezewiro should play on Sat.
basebill123 likes this -
First, before we get started , a note about the TRO. When a player (Ezewiro) doesn't start the season and comes in somewhere in the middle, he usually isn't "game ready". Either his shooting or other basketball skills aren't at 100%. Also his endurance usually isn't at it's peak either and may player fewer minutes than normal. Many times a lesser sub(s) will be able to play at the same level because they are "game ready". For those reasons, (plus a lack of data) the computer says to leave the spread as is (even). In the simulations , the majority of them show a range of ....the Bills winning by 5 ...to the Bills losing by 5. The computer says if the Bills win by more than 5....the overage will be the "Ezewiro effect".
General Outlook...The computer thought this was going to be an important game , even before the TRO...The TRO just puts an exclamation point on it. Besides the fact that the game is even...the computer sees the Bills season as even...as though this is a crossroads.. A win and the Bills can start to turn it around , a loss and we will continue to struggle. As for what the "Ezewiro effect" means, the computer says to comeback before the NC St game for an answer.
Game Preview....This is the 2nd game in a row that is even...a first for Wiz spreads. When I saw that there was only 1 thing to do ...play the game on the computer...HOF vs La Tech on a neutral court....The answer was not a surprise...They came out even. A note here... just because these 2 teams were both even against the Bills doesn't mean they would be even against each other. Different matchups with evenly matched teams many times come up with different outcomes. But not this time.
La Tech comes in at a rating of B vs the Bills who remain at C+. We have seen this before...a mid major...rated ahead of us ...with 1 or 2 dominate players(usually a big in there) who will try to shut us down on the inside and out shoot us from close in. First, lets start with introductions. First, a 3 school player (1 med red shirt in there) big guy (6'10") Mr LAT... Batcho 15th ITN in Rebs and 50th in blks....a good test for Ezewiro or whoever. Next up is Crawford who leads the team in Pts, Assts, 3P shooting and steals. Stop these 2 guys (or slow them down) and we win.
Report Card....
Report card... after the last game the card is positive ...2 up ...1 down...point of information on the report card....while the LAT grades may look daunting compared to SLU...please note the LAT SOS is a C- and the Bills SOS is B+...makes a difference.
Let's see what things look like....
...................SLU......................LAT........................SLU.............................LAT
.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............
PPG...............C-.......................C+...........................D.................................A+...12th ITN
FG%...............D+.....................C..............................D-................................A+..7th ITN
3P%...............A-........................A-...........................C-................................B+
FT%...............B-.........................D+................................................
Reb...............D-..........................A.............................D-................................B-
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
UP...............Off....3P%......Def.....PPG
Down.........Off......PPG.........Def....none
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU
none
LAT
Rebs...Batcho...15th
Blks........"......"......50th
Stls.........Crawford...39th
Injury /Illness report and misc
The Bills....
Meadows...Dec 10...Questionable for Sat....Back
Hughes....Dec 10....Quest for Sat...Unknown injury
Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot
LAT....
none
Keys to the Game......LAT is a good team....In addition to Crawford, Ree can also shoot 3s but doesn't take many shots per game. LAT, though does have some weaknesses. They will turn the ball over if bothered and they are susceptible to steals if we stay on them. In addition, they are not very good at FTs.
WWN2D2W...Target slash...47/51/39/73....Hold their top 3 scorers to 32 pts .....No double double for Batcho...Beat them on TOs by 2 and steals by 3. Rebound within 3 of them.....In order to win we need to hold them to 70 pts.
Bottom line....If we make our numbers, we can "pound" the Dogs.
BJK likes this -
What a great game. I don't think you can get much closer to even than that. To me even is when the game is decided on the final possession. ...BINGO
The Bills won this game on hard word, great defense and PRIDE (for those who have lost their Wiz code card...double meaning)
Bolded statements are from the original post above....
They will focus on 3s.......They did focus on 3s taking 25 3PA....if you check the report card above you will see Hof was 14th ITN in 3P%...we stopped them with a 28%....Thomas(Mr Pride) went 3-12 from the arc (25%) Yes, he had 29 pts but he had to take a LOT of shots to get those points. A weak spot on their team is 3P D...hopefully we can take advantage and sink some from the arc...a weak spot was 3P D and we did take advantage....We shot 45% from the arc. Let's try this a different way....We took 4 more 3P shots than they did....AND made 6 more 3s than Hof. This was the difference in the game. This was the winning stat....3 P shooters were...GJ...5-11 (45%)...Hargrove...3-4(75%)...Dalger 3-8(38%)...Thames 1-1 (100%)...Medley 1-3 (33%). 13-29...45%... A+ shooting.
A lot of other things to talk about...TOs were a problem in the 1st half ...10...but only 3 in the 2nd half and none in the final quarter....And even though we lost the TO battle...13-11... we still won the war...Hof pts off TOs..10pts...Bills...18pts. We stopped their big men...40 min totals...4 pts , 5 rebs
And finally the much ballyhooed FT shooting was true as they clocked 93% to our weak 67%...but no major damage as they outscored us by only 3 at the charity stripe.
In the end we did what we had to do and did it at the right time.
Best to end with the bottom line from above....
Bottom line....If we beat HOF , we will have some "Pride"....We did and we do.
CenHudDude, billikenbill, Billikenbooster and 1 other like this -
9 minutes ago, Cowboy II said:
-to see our overall Def and 3pt defense graded as D- is sad
-going to KenPom our non-con schedule is 171 and here comes Hofstra with the 81st most efficient offense and the 24th best 3pt shooting team, typically we allow a bunch of open 3's so this recipe doesn't seem to favor us but that's why the games are played
-I hope Thames is healthy as I want to see if his stat line is real
-Darlinstone Dunbar and Jacco Fritz, a good sounding front line
Not to be too picky here....But the Bills have a C- in 3P D and a D- in FG%....which makes things actually worse....because we take more 2s than 3s....You will note that PPG D matches our FG% D...both D-
If you look over at the Hof D column , you will see the same effect....Hof 3P Def is C- ...FG% is A...PPG Def is B-....again showing the fact that FG% Def is usually more important in PPG Def .
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Thought , I would do a final check since it was so close.....Not much difference...Hof by a half pt. Also the computer is picking Hof as a Big Dance team...getting their ticket as the conference winner....You might say they are the "Pride" of the CAA
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General Outlook...One pattern that seems to be repeating is that good mid majors (which we have seen a few) have that 1 guy (or 2) that raises them above the pack. You know him ...he is the one who always gives us trouble...he always shows up in the report card section titled Top 100 ITN. Hofstra is one of those teams. So we should know the drill. The good news is that regardless of where we are now or in the future we are never far away from turning things around...we just need "that guy".
Game Preview....HOF comes to town with a grade of B...not as good as our last 2 opponents but still a formidable challenge. They also come in with some "Pride" (their team name) Mr. Pride #1 is Thomas ...5th ITN in PPG ...Mr. Pride 2 is Dubar...79th ITN...stop these 2 guys and we win...btw Xav Johnson(SIU) is #1 ITN in PPG. We are the star makers. Meanwhile we remain at C+ . In the better news dept(I can't use good at this point) injuries are down to 3 vs 5 last game. A weak spot on their team is 3P D...hopefully we can take advantage and sink some from the arc. Also HOF is not a great reb team so we should be able to stay close on the boards. As you can see by the title , this game is a coin toss....the computer says good chance for OT. They have 1 Big...6 10 Fritz who has the potential to swat away some shots and if left alone get close to a double double. They have a 7 footer who comes in for a bit to rest him. But as far as HOF is concerned... it is all about the guards. They will play the entire game using 4 guards and a pole. They will focus on 3s and foul shots....We need to play accordingly....Again, stop Thomas and Dubar and we win.
Report Card....
..Report card... after the last game the card is neutral...1 up ...1 down
Let's see what things look like....
...................SLU......................HOF........................SLU.............................HOF
.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............
PPG...............C.......................B+.............................D-.................................B-
FG%...............D+.....................A-..............................D-................................A
3P%...............B+.......................A+..14th ITN...........C-................................C-
FT%...............B-.........................A+..11th ITN................................................
Reb...............D-..........................B-.............................D-................................C-
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
UP...............Off....none..........Def.....Reb
Down.........Off......none.........Def....PPG
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU
none
HOF
PPG.....Thomas 5th....Dubar...79th...side note... Xav Johnson (SIU)...1st
FT%..........".....".....19th (95.5%)....Carlos...24th (95%)
Asst.....Carlos...9th
Stls........."....."....75th
Injury /Illness report and misc
The Bills....
Meadows...Dec 7...Quest....Back
Hughes....Dec 7....Quest...Unknown injury
Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot
HOF....
none
Keys to the Game......Stop Thomas and Dubar
WWN2D2W...Target slash...47/51/39/73....Hold Thomas and Dubar to 32 pts .....Beat HOF on TOs and steals. Rebound within 2 of them.....In order to win we need to hold them to 74 pts.
Bottom line....If we beat HOF , we will have some "Pride"
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7 hours ago, slufan13 said:
sicko
I maybe a sicko....as well as the people who I am bringing to the game. Come to think of it ...I guess anyone still on the board at this part of the season is a sicko.
willie and NextYearBill like this -
7 hours ago, Soderball said:
The slash lines you post are too optimistic wiz. The Bills are a good shooting team but the numbers you post result in the Billikens winning a national title.
This team needs to be able to play defense and we just don't have the bodies to do it.
Your spread was actually pretty on the money. Good job.
I am going to have to disagree with you on the point that the slash lines are too optimistic.
First, the target slash................................................................................................................................................................49/51/40/72
But let's look a little deeper into the numbers....in the 2nd half of the game the Bills shot a dismal...............................30/35/14/79
Now let's add 2 more 2s and 1 more 3 to the 2nd half to make the overall target...2nd half with the extra baskets....41/45/28/79
Now let's at what the Bills are actual shooting in 2023/ 2024....not pie in the sky stuff but real.....................................44/47/37/73
The point is that if the Bills had shot at a substandard grade D level and also still below their season average in the 2nd half of that game instead of the poor level grade F....they would have made 2 more 2s and 1 more 3 = 7 more pts and a win. ...which comes back to the original point that the target slash was not an overly optimistic projection but in fact was very doable.
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A nice 1st half by the Bills ....Just not enough horses to finish the game. But you've got to like the way they battled. I mentioned in a previous post how the Bills battled USU down to the wire. Some said USU let up which is why the finish was close. I don't happen to believe that. I believe the Bills fought them to the end....while their 16 point lead gradually faded... Nobody can say that in this game, Drake let up for almost the entire game. USU is currently in line for a Big Dance bid. After that game, I said they will be our toughest opponent and by staying close in that game meant we are capable of beating anyone on our remaining schedule. The Drake game is a further confirmation that we can play with anyone on our schedule.....and we did it , even being severely undermanned.
A side note...I find it amusing when posters use the word "lock" and "bet the farm" when Vegas shows an inflated spread. It isn't even the posters or the forecasters that are the issue...it is the bettors who believe the posters and forecasters who use the word "lock". ....It is their belief in the word lock that inflates the spread which leads to their doom. Where is JT (not to be confused with TJ) Barnum when you need him.
Well, let's see what happened this game....Bolded statements are from the original post above.
Target slash...49/51/40/72...Target means this is what we need to do to win....And we far exceed those numbers in the first half (60/ 61/ 57 / 88) and we opened a huge lead... And of course we failed those numbers badly in the 2nd half ( 30/ 35 / 14 / 79 ) and the lead faded away. But let's see what the whole game looked like...Actual slash... 44 / 47 / 36/ 82....What did we need to make the slash?...2 more 2s and 1 more 3...Totals up to 7 pts...that is how close we were....Make the numbers...win the game.
In order to win we need to hold them to 73 pts....close but not good enough...every point matters
Stop Devries and Brodie...Hold Brodie to under 50% on FG%...We did and that was the key to us leading for most of the game....We held Devries to 10pts (half his normal total) and Brodie to 44% (way below his 70% average )...but because we were under manned lesser players scored a bunch.....Hold DRK's top 2 to 27pts...You will note here I didn't say to hold Devries and Brodie to 27 but their 2 top scorers to 27...Plan B was if Devries and Brodie get into trouble let some else shoot and then pray...that worked tonight ...on another night when the Bills had an extra player or 2 plan B would have faltered.
Rebounding should be close this game...Bills win this battle ...on most nights this stat alone would have been enough to put us over the top but there was one last item we need to take care of....
Match them on TOs and steals. ..Steals ...8-7 advantage Bills......almost there.......TOs ...14-10 advantage Drake...fail... This was one of the keys to the game....14 isn't a terrible number but the +4 is damaging....this team cannot afford to lose giveaway battles. Drake had 14 pts on 14 Bills TO( 1pt/ TO)....take away those 4 extra TOs and you subtract 4 Drake pts PLUS the Bills have 4 more chances to score 3 pts.
Bottom line...More players and we don't run out of gas and beat them....The takeaway is... we can beat anybody left on our schedule ...particularly if we get some additional players ....through healing or the NCAA.
The Bills over Loy-C by 2
in Billikens.com Main Board
Posted
It doesn't change anything on my end....The computer still sees "out indefinitely" and goes with that. Even if Parker , were to make a surprise appearance he wouldn't play significant minutes...The computer would see coming in as another sub . It will be that way till he returns and gets up to speed.
Bottom line...Still Bills by 2