The Wiz

Here is my take...We are bigger... more aggressive...more physical ...faster...more athletic....We are still rough around the edges(they have only practiced a couple of weeks) but are looking good at this point. Players to watch... Best additions ...Otieno and Dunlap Nice looking shot...Sharp Shooter Sharma Healthy player...Thames played a lot of minutes with no seeming problems. Best freshman in a while...Kerr and Laczkowski...thin big guys who are athletic and can shoot. Knows what he is doing...Brown...has good floor sense and can shoot. Most improved from last year...Anya and McCottry...both more aggressive and playing more defense. Lost weight and is in better shape...Avila...he can still shoot and pass. Big difference maker...Jones....he can do it all Best Kwamain Mitchell impersonator...Green...he has that potential Bottom line...This will be a better team than last year and should win more games...check back with me on the first week in Nov. Go Bills

That is what the NCAA says it is trying to prevent. Swope mentioned in this article in the NY Times about college eligibility for athletes. He is one of 137 players seeking extra time after running out of eligibility. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6338236/2025/05/08/mens-college-basketball-eligibility-transfer-portal/ If the link is blocked you should be able to google the article and it will let you read it.

And now for our next 2 players... Brady Dunlop and Ishan Sharma... On Brady Dunlop there is not much to see. He played 2 seasons at St. Johns and does not have a full sample size...even if I combine the 2 seasons. So nothing to really grade out. He has 3 issues to overcome to be successful at SLU....1) Injuries...2)Layoff...3) Limited stats...Let's look at each... 1) Injuries...In the last season he had 2 major injuries both resulting in surgeries. A UCL injury on the thumb last Dec which took about 6 weeks to heal up. Even though he healed he was never really able to test the hand in a game because he had an abdominal tear which shut him down for the rest of the season. The ab surgery was in Feb. He began light workouts in March and will be able to do full workouts starting in June. So after these 2 surgeries will he be able to preform at the same high level as beforehand. Which leads us to #2... 2) Layoffs...His last game was Dec 18 , 2024. Between Mar 2024 (end of freshman year) and Nov 2025 he will have played 165 min (10games). Not much playing time over 19 months and 2 surgeries...Will he be able to come back and preform at a high level? 3) Limited stats...The data is not just limited but erratic. In his freshman year he had a small sample size...If I had to grade that it would have been an F....His soph year ...the injury year...the data size went from small to miniscule. Again if I had to grade it ...it would have been an A. .... small sets of data at opposite ends of the spectrum. Bottom line.... While there isn't much to go on the hope is he will be able to recover and preform at a high level given that he will have a full summer and fall to practice and get back into shape. The one really positive sign is his numbers between Freshman and Soph vastly improved. And while it is a small sample size it is still a positive trend. Final grade = H...for hopeful. Ishan Sharma Again a player with not a whole lot of stats. While he played 29 games, he averaged just under 13 min a game. A couple of things stand out in his stats...First he is a 3P shooter ...80% of his shots are 3P shots. Unfortunately only a third go in which grades him out at a C. Hopefully, under the Schertz system he will get better looks and take better shots and move that average up a little bit. Very doable. The second thing that stands out to me is the Asst/TO ratio....He grades out at A+ AND this is not a small sample size. Many on this board have clamored for ball handling skills and playmaking. Nothing better epitomizes those 2 attributes than the A/TO ratio. This may be the ball handler and playmaker we are looking for. This looks like a good get. The picture is starting to clear.

I think the go to stat on your question is Ast/TO ratio....important to ball handling and creating offense. His numbers are pretty good here...1.73...generally 1.6 to 2+ is an A. For some context ....SLU finished at 1.16...A C+. An even ratio(1-1) is a D+ . So in addition to the slash line the A/T ratio looks good and throw in 3.7 rebs and he looks very good.

You would think so. But that's not the way it works. This is somewhat of a quirk for a few reasons. One is the sample size for 2P shots is not full size. The second reason is the weightings of the 2 variables are disproportionate (twice as many 3PA as 2PA) . So then if you move in closer to the basket on 2s and take the same amount of shots , you will make a few more 2P shots and because of the small sample size the 2P % will move up quicker but not enough to make an A+. Finally, 2P shooters generally shoot higher % than 3P shooters and historically 3P shooters have a lower FG% because they are taking more 3s. Bottom line...The grading of the 2 categories(2s and 3s) are done separately unlike a box score where you would add the 2 together to come up with a FG%(which is also calculated separately). You get separate grades that won't add up when put them together. I think when analyzing a player it gives you more information.

This is a little out of the box for me...ie giving a review of a player who has neither committed or visited yet BUT he has listed us as a top 5 finalist and there is something interesting in his review. First let's look at his report card... ..........................FG%....3P%....2P%...FT% Pjay Smith..........D+.......A+........D-.....A+ A couple of notes here ...the 2P stat is not a full sample size (about 2/3) . That is because this guy is a 3P shooter...ie he makes more 3s than 2s. Another note is his FG% and 2P% are poor because he takes a number of long 2s. He only takes about four 2s per game( he takes twice as many 3s). If he could up his 2P% he would have a pretty flashy report card. "What if"... The computer wanted to keep going and do a "what if".... What if Pjay had played under Schertz last year? Here is what his report card would have looked like.... ..........................FG%....3P%....2P%...FT% Pjay Smith..........B+.......A+......A+.......A+ The computer took Pjay's shot chart and the average Schertz shot chart and overlaid it on to Pj's. It took away the long 2s and that small change not only changed his report card but upped his average from 17.6 to 18.6 PPG. It showed he made an extra 2 every other game. A very small change but a big difference. Who knows whether he will sign with us but the point is that Schertz doesn't need the best players...He needs the right players. Players that can fit into his system. The "what if" also showed his assist total going up too. The "what if" example shows how Schertz can fix players and what the results might look like. Bottom line...This guy would be a good get...but even more important is that it is all about finding the right players.

Congrats Steve...You are like the Florida of this bracket winning a close one at the buzzer....I guess that makes me Houston. The computer doesn't get its Data-bytes treat tonight.

I usually wait till a player commits before I do a review. But I think when somebody from the portal visits I will do a review. So today we will look at Jamir Simpson from So Utah (WAC). UT is a D- team and has a C SOS. As a reference The Bills are B & B, so this is a step up for him. Let's look at his slash..... FG%.....3P%...2P....FT D- / C / F / A+ A couple of points here....First ..Why don't I use the efficient FG% stat which might be better than using FG%. eFG% is definitely an improvement over just using FG%. BUT it is not an improvement over using 2P% and 3P% which give you more info. The reason there is an eFG is because many times the 2P% is left out of the slash. By listing the 2 and 3 pt shots you get more info especially related to Schertz teams. Most fans outside of Schertz world say...his teams are the 3P shooters. While that is definitely an important part of the game what many don't realize is Schertz teams have lead the nation in 2s. Last year ISU was #1 in 2P%...this year The Bills were # 3. Which bring us back to Simpson ( and Green in the earlier post above). Simpson's numbers on FG and 3P are 41.5 and 33.9%...a D- & C. If we look at the eFG it is 46.3%...which grades out at F....The higher number looks nicer but in reality grades out worse. ( a C grade would be around 50.5) So not flashy report cards BUT there is a striking similarity not only between Simpson and Green but in other Schertz recruits.. He is not looking for that hot player (although he will take them if he can get them)...he is looking for someone with a lesser line who can be "fixed". Of course all coaches think they can fix players but with Schertz it is different. Part of the "fixing" is fitting into his system. That is, shooting 2s closer in. It is just logical that when you take closer in shots you will make more of them. And the pattern of the fixed players has been their 2P% goes up which in turn pushes up their FG% which in turn opens up 3 P opportunities, which increases scoring. This is a simplified version of what he does but this is the basic premise. Many of the players with weaker numbers take many mid and long range 2s. Majerus used to say the long 2 was the worst shot on the floor. In the end, not ever player can adjust to this system but the ones who do find success. So in terms of analysis , it comes down to whether Schertz can find the right players for his system....ones who can adapt. History says yes he can...we will find out in the coming year whether history repeats itself.

Time for the year end review. Probably the best way to do this is go back to the beginning...my beginning of the season review done in early Dec. The bolded statements are from that early season review. For The Bills, the addition of a new coach on top of almost a brand new team creates a lot of turmoil. One of the effects of big change is inconsistency. ...I could have written this today but it was written 4 months ago. Now is a good time to probably discuss expectations. Change always brings excitement and hope until the season starts. Then stuff happens. Let's look at some numbers from Coach Schertz. ..................Lincoln Mem U..........Ind St U...........SLU 1st yr.............14-14.......................11-20................6-3 (so far) 2nd yr...........20-10......................23-13.................? 3rd yr............27-2........................32-7...................? Strange but impressive numbers.... There are those on this Board who are ready to move on from Schertz. If history is any guide then that would be a mistake. It takes time for Coach to work his magic. Judging by GDTs and posting in general, patience is not a virtue of this Board. Should we give the Coach more time? Yes.....How much ?..more than 1 year to see results....3 years to see great results. Is this a lost year? No We could still see good things this year if we get some players back and stay healthy...Again, I could have written this today but since I didn't this now seems like sage advice. Bills forecast...We now have 8 D1 games under our belt. For my system 8 is a magic number. It is not an ideal number but the minimum number of games to play where there is enough data to make some observations and forecasts. We currently are 6-3 (8 D1 games) with a C+ rating on a C- schedule. As conferences go, the A-10 is a B conference. If we are to compete this year will have to get better in a fairly short time...as in getting our team grade up to B...Looking back at the season, we did get better...C+ to B. I think Schertz did a good job under the circumstances. ....a new team (only 1 player from last year played the whole season...plus our depth disappeared to the point where we were playing mainly a starting 5. So the point of getting to grade B is so that we could be competitive in the A10. We got to B and we were competitive. The goal after getting to B at the start of conference play was to then get to B+ where we could finish Top 4...We never made it to either (B+ or Top 4)...close but short...let's look at the rest of the forecast.... Here is what the computer sees at this time for the Bills.... ................................Over all.................A-10 Best Case..................20-10..................12-6 Most probable...........17-13....................9-9 Worst case.................12-18...................4-14 A few notes here ...a 12-6 record would be enough to get a top 4 finish for the A-10 tourney. A finish of 16-14 would be Schertz 's best 1st year start... The Bills finished at 19-15 and 11-7 in conf. We missed the best case scenario by 1 more win both in overall and A-10. The 12-6 to get into the top 4 was right on. For 1st years this was easily Schertz's best start which if history is a guide this bodes well for The Bills future. While all conference games are important, the computer sees 8 league games as crucial to getting to post season play...Day (2), VCU (2), Loy (2), RI and St. B. If we win 5 of those games, we are in good shape... Unfortunately we only won 4...again falling 1 win short. Now let's look at the A-10 forecast...beginning vs the end of the season...The difference is the letter grade difference so in the case of the Bills a C- to B would be a diff of +2 Beg of season....End of season.....The diff 1...Day...A...............B......................-3 2...Loy...A-..............B.....................-2 3...RI.... C+............C+.................correct 4...St. B...B+............B-..................-2 5...VCU...B+............A-..................+1 6...Dav.....B.............C+..................-2 7...GM......B.............B+..................+1 8...St. J....B.............B.....................correct 9...Bills...C+............B.....................+2 10...GW... C+...........B-...................+1 11...LaS...C+............C-....................-2 12...Duq...C.............B-....................+2 13...Ford...C............C-....................-1 14...UMass...C-.......C....................+1 15...Rich.....D+.......D+...................correct Results......................Past history With in 2...93%............80-87% With in 1....53%............53-67% (includes correct) Exact hit....20%...........13-20% Changes...... One change I will make for next year is what it will take to make the Big Dance. For years , I have always talked about reaching B+ as a minimum to make the Dance. If you finished the season with a B+ you had about a 1/3 chance of Dancing. If you graded in at A- about a 90% chance to Dance. As a result of The NET, those days are over. B+ will be for NIT only now with about an 18% chance to Dance if you get an A- or a B. The NCAA need to expand the Dance but that topic is for another thread. Another change was one that I made as the season progressed ... POTs...Points Off Turnovers. I always mention TOs in game forecasts and the importance of matching or beating the opponent. It is not just that you lose an opportunity to score but you give the opponent an extra chance. Not a good thing in an era of parity. During the season, I noticed a disturbing TO trend. It wasn't just that we were giving up extra TOs but that the other team was scoring more points per TO than we were. In other words our TOs were more damaging. I noticed during the season had we matched POTs with the other team we would have had 3 more wins....finishing 14-4 in 2nd place with a double bye. The Loy game in the A10 tournament was a good example of this. We had 1 more TO than Loy but they had 8 more POTs than us....the difference in the game. Bottom line....History has shown that Schertz always does significantly better in his 2nd year and the 3rd year is gold. Let's hope history repeats itself.

I will let the Xavier athletic dept. explain it..... Green, who led Xavier with a game-high and career-high 23 points in the win at Providence on Jan. 13 on the strength of a career-high five 3-pointers, has hit at least one 3-pointer in 22 games, including 15 BIG EAST games. He has hit at least two 3-pointers in eight BIG EAST games and 10 games overall. Basically, he had an amazing game against Providence plus a good Xavier Athletic PR dept....Without that Prov game he shoots 30% and winds up with an F- for the year. It reminds me of the old sales joke... Bob...How did Joe win Salesman of the year? Steve...He lost money on every sale but he made it up in volume. Bottom line...He had a D in his freshman year in 3 P shooting...In his soph year he had an A in a small sample size ( 9 of 24 from the arc) in 9 games....will he pan out ??.. maybe he will meld into the Schertz system and have an A year ...he has the potential...At this point he is "iffy".

Yes...He was 32.2%....D = 32.1-32.6%

On the Brown 35% from 3....I had the 2P and 3P grades turned around. It was in fact 3P...B- and 2P D+ with a ? because of a small sample size which makes it less meaningful. I had it right on my stat sheet but in the transfer to the post it was reversed. But the narrative was correct in regards to Brown fitting in better with the Schertz system. His 2P% was down because he took longer 2s. With Schertz he should be able to take shorter shots which in turn should boost his 2P% and his FG%. As for Brown getting a higher grade on FG% than Brown...The answer is you really can't compare the two. I listed the 2 together in the post because they both signed at the same time but as I pointed out above it is not real meaningful because Green has a small sample size (only 40% of a full size). It is also why I listed 2 years of Green data to give a little better picture but even with 2 years it is still sketchy. Bottom line ...we are not sure what we are getting with Green...Brown looks promising if he can adjust to the Schertz system.

Let's take a look at the newest additions... Dion Brown and Trey Green...These will be a little more complicated then the first 2 signees. ? = small sample size... less or not meaningful. After the question mark I will list the the % data I have compared to a full sample size. I have added that to the Otieno's profile in the original post above. First , we have D Brown.... .....................FG%....2P%.........3P%.................FT%... D. Brown.......C+........B-..........D+ ? (75%)........A- A quizzical line for sure. A couple of key points here...1st he took a big step up this last season from UMBC in the AEC (if you don't know what these letters mean...that is part of the problem) to Bos Coll in the ACC. In the year before BC, he was an A+ from 2P range. The other key point is he may fit into the Schertz system better than in Boston. While at BC he took more mid and long 2P shots. As we all know there are no mid and long 2P shots in the Schertz system. If Brown does take shorter shots, his 2P and FG% should go up and make him a good player at SLU. If you thought that player was a bit confusing , we will move on to a more complicated one. Green just finished his 2nd year at Xav. Unfortunately, he only played in 9 games. To make matters worse, while he played a full season he only averaged 13 min/gm. ...and those weren't great minutes. I am going to list both years to try and make a little sense out of it. Again, the % represent amount of data collected ..............................FG%...................2P%.....................3P%..................FT% T Green.....Fr........F-.. ?(65%)............F- ?(27%)..........D.....................A+ (Fr & Soph combined) ...............Soph......F..?(40%).............F..?( 5%)..............A..?(36%).......A+ (Fr & Soph combined) An iffy pick...the question will be can he turn the ?s into +s...especially from the arc... we will know with another 64%.

In an effort to take a closer look, I thought it would be interesting to grade our new transfer players. A question mark next to the grade indicates a small sample size and may not be a meaningful grade. After the question mark I will list the the % data I have compared to a full sample size. ....................................FG%......................2P%......3P%......FT%........Overall.........Misc Otieno ...Qpac.............A+ (42nd ITN).......A+..........A ? (48%).......A+..............A+.............Blks (22nd ITN) Q Jones...NIU..............B............................B.............B+........A................B+.................. Looks like we are off to a good start.

$4000