The Wiz Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 7th seed (dn)...........NIT chances.......Rich...90%(up & getting close).....Loy...70%(up)...UMass...56%(new)...St. B. ...54%(unch)...VCU...50% (dn) Game Preview......... We Remain at C.....The teams listed above are all B+...except Day which is an A. As you can see below in the report card....The offense is OK but the defense is ...well what can I say...I think Ford said it best after the RI game...."We play hard on defense...we are just not very good at it." Meanwhile, Day has one of the best defense ITN. ...YET...we only lost to them by 5pt at their place. We lost rebs by 2 ....TOs down by 2...and missed the FG% by less than 2%....and we lost to a team that will probably be dancing ...by only 5pts at their place. Of course, we still have to face Holmes who single handedly crushed us. Pts..29...Rebs...14...Blks...4...Stls...2 and yet we lost to them by only 5 at their place. The point being... that game was very winnable. So the question now is ...we are coming home ....why has the point spread gone up after a 5 pt loss? Well, Dalgar and Meadows won't be playing this game...so that is 12pts and 5 rebs that need to be replaced....which is doable. BUT there is also the possibility that Ezewiro and Parker could be questionable for the Tues game....thus the larger spread. If those 2 are available , we could be back in the running. Watch this space for injury updates. Of course there is still the issue of putting a throttle on Holmes ...if we can do that we have a chance to win. Let's look at the card.... Report Card.... The Card is up.....2 up 1 dn... 2 Off and 1 Def .................SLU..............Day................SLU......................Day ...........................OFF........................................DEF.......... PPG...........C+................C.....................F........................A FG%...........C..................A-...................D-......................A- 3P%...........A.................A+..7th ITN.....F+......................A- FT%...........B+................B-.......................... Reb...........D...................D....................D+.......................B OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FG%...3P%......Def...none Down.........Off....none....Def....3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...61st ...up Day PPG...Holmes...31st Rebs....."...."......88th Stls......."....."....19th 3P%.....Brea....12th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills... Meadows....2/20...back...out indefinitely Curcic....2/29...foot...out for season Watch this space in the coming days as it is a fluid situation Day.. None...How come these other teams never have injuries or at least less than we do? Keys to the Game.......Stop Holmes...No more injuries than those listed in the injury section. WWN2D2W...Target slash--47/38/75.....Beat them on FG%......Beat them on TOs...and in Rebs...Stop Holmes...Hold him to 20 pts and 9 rebs. Bottom line.........Ground Holmes and take the Flyers down. TheChosenOne likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Dayton winning by only 9 points? I doubt it very much. I would take this as a best case scenario. You are assuming that both Ezewiro and Parker are fully functional and will remain so throughout the game. This may or may not be the case, and certainly you cannot count on it happening. Just for the sake of asking, how many teams in A10 or overall in D1 have a major player disappearing for unknown reasons, a guard out indefinitely for back injury, another guard out for the season with a foot/ankle fracture during a practice? What is the average of severe injury either causing a season or indefinite incapacitation injury rate per team? Are there stats for injury rates per team? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 9 hours ago, The Wiz said: Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 7th seed (dn)...........NIT chances.......Rich...90%(up & getting close).....Loy...70%(up)...UMass...56%(new)...St. B. ...54%(unch)...VCU...50% (dn) Game Preview......... We Remain at C.....The teams listed above are all B+...except Day which is an A. As you can see below in the report card....The offense is OK but the defense is ...well what can I say...I think Ford said it best after the RI game...."We play hard on defense...we are just not very good at it." Meanwhile, Day has one of the best defense ITN. ...YET...we only lost to them by 5pt at their place. We lost rebs by 2 ....TOs down by 2...and missed the FG% by less than 2%....and we lost to a team that will probably be dancing ...by only 5pts at their place. Of course, we still have to face Holmes who single handedly crushed us. Pts..29...Rebs...14...Blks...4...Stls...2 and yet we lost to them by only 5 at their place. The point being... that game was very winnable. So the question now is ...we are coming home ....why has the point spread gone up after a 5 pt loss? Well, Dalgar and Meadows won't be playing this game...so that is 12pts and 5 rebs that need to be replaced....which is doable. BUT there is also the possibility that Ezewiro and Parker could be questionable for the Tues game....thus the larger spread. If those 2 are available , we could be back in the running. Watch this space for injury updates. Of course there is still the issue of putting a throttle on Holmes ...if we can do that we have a chance to win. Let's look at the card.... Report Card.... The Card is up.....2 up 1 dn... 2 Off and 1 Def .................SLU..............Day................SLU......................Day ...........................OFF........................................DEF.......... PPG...........C+................C.....................F........................A FG%...........C..................A-...................D-......................A- 3P%...........A.................A+..7th ITN.....F+......................A- FT%...........B+................B-.......................... Reb...........D...................D....................D+.......................B OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FG%...3P%......Def...none Down.........Off....none....Def....3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...61st ...up Day PPG...Holmes...31st Rebs....."...."......88th Stls......."....."....19th 3P%.....Brea....12th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills... Meadows....2/20...back...out indefinitely Curcic....2/29...foot...out for season Watch this space in the coming days as it is a fluid situation Day.. None...How come these other teams never have injuries or at least less than we do? Keys to the Game.......Stop Holmes...No more injuries than those listed in the injury section. WWN2D2W...Target slash--47/38/75.....Beat them on FG%......Beat them on TOs...and in Rebs...Stop Holmes...Hold him to 20 pts and 9 rebs. Bottom line.........Ground Holmes and take the Flyers down. Thanks as always. Does your computer though consider whether or not Jordair will attend this game? JMM28 likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 -only two 'F' grades on defense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 27 minutes ago, Old guy said: Dayton winning by only 9 points? I doubt it very much. I would take this as a best case scenario. You are assuming that both Ezewiro and Parker are fully functional and will remain so throughout the game. This may or may not be the case, and certainly you cannot count on it happening. Just for the sake of asking, how many teams in A10 or overall in D1 have a major player disappearing for unknown reasons, a guard out indefinitely for back injury, another guard out for the season with a foot/ankle fracture during a practice? What is the average of severe injury either causing a season or indefinite incapacitation injury rate per team? Are there stats for injury rates per team? I think if you read through my post ....I spend a bit of time on injuries mentioning that Parker and Ezewiro could be missing. But at this point, they are not listed as MIA. I also say to check back for injury updates....Right now , we are only officially missing Meadows and Curcic. Over the season we have 2 others that are gone ....Dalgar and Magassa...I think given that we lost by 5 in Dayton...9 is a good number at this point. While I don't have a program that tracks injuries...I can give you some injury highlights.... Mizzou fans would be happy to tell you about their 5 injuries...8-21...0-16 SEC Portland ( the team that calls us the Pelicans) I think wins the prize...6 players out....11-20...5-11 Neb...5 players out ...21-9...11-8...4th in the B10.... Hou....where every injury is big ....3 players out (playing 10-18 mpg)...26-3 ...13-3 1st in B12...1st overall in The Net In the A10...GW and Mason both with 4 injuries. A side note ...one of the 3 missing players in Mem is Dandridge...Ineligible ...I think he did us a favor by not selecting us. Bottom line....It is not always about who has the most injuries...It is about depth and who on your team is hurt. Can you imagine Dayton missing Holmes....They would be a mid level 500 A-10 team without him. TheChosenOne likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 7 minutes ago, Cowboy II said: -only two 'F' grades on defense? One is D-....so there is still time. Lord Elrond likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, CenHudDude said: Thanks as always. Does your computer though consider whether or not Jordair will attend this game? Yes...It thinks it would help if he is wearing jersey #6 when he is taunting the Day coach. CenHudDude and Lord Elrond like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYBilliken Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Would hypothetical possibility of Billiken victory knock Dayton out of their at-large spot? (signed) Juan Bid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 12 minutes ago, NYBilliken said: Would hypothetical possibility of Billiken victory knock Dayton out of their at-large spot? (signed) Juan Bid. It would make it close. Prob have to lose to us, and right away in the A10 tourney . A lose to them would put them on the unfavorable side of the seeding Lord Elrond likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 3 minutes ago, NYBilliken said: Would hypothetical possibility of Billiken victory knock Dayton out of their at-large spot? (signed) Juan Bid. It would be a big stain. It would mean that Day would have to win the A10 tourney. ...which to answer your question would probably knock them out of an at large bid. But as I answered in a different thread (just sayin' thread) ...It depends on who Day is up against...this is a computer prediction based on data.... The NCAA has the right to over rule the computers ( my computer or The NET). If Day is up against Long Beach St then they are in....if they are going against St. John's then they are out. You are kind of in no man's land. So I pushed the computer...I told it to think like the Committee...what would they do with a 2 losses in March Dayton team? (this assumes that the final loss is in the conference final...an earlier loss in the tourney combined with a loss to SLU and they are toast) The answer was... it would give Dayton a play in bid as a first 4 team to be played in Dayton. Ah, you've got to like a machine doing dumb things. It ain't easy being the Committee. NYBilliken likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Wiz, my post was intended to indicate that IF Ford is really desperate in his defense of his job, he is likely to declare both Parker and Ezewiro ready for play whether they are fully healed or not. We will find out by seeing what happens during the game. Will they play and reinjure themselves?, or will they play well with no problems?, or will they not play?. I do not know what will happen, but neither does anyone else. Whether they play well or reasonably well and with no additional injuries, I doubt we will lose by just 9 points against Dayton. We are embracing the two opposite ends of the spectrum in this discussion. I think you are going for a best case scenario, while I am at the opposite end. We will most certainly see what happens, and I hope I am being too negative here and you are correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRN Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 If we hold this game to single digits it will be a minor miracle. SVU is coming in after losing to LUC, and going against our defense - yikes. I’m thinking more of a 15-20 point loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Javon Bennett missed the entire second half of the Loyola game Friday with what was described as a thumb injury. With Smith out for the year, Bennett is their only point guard. Kobe Elvis cannot do it. Kobe Brea is just a pure three point shooter. Any news on the Bennett injury Wiz? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, Taj79 said: Javon Bennett missed the entire second half of the Loyola game Friday with what was described as a thumb injury. With Smith out for the year, Bennett is their only point guard. Kobe Elvis cannot do it. Kobe Brea is just a pure three point shooter. Any news on the Bennett injury Wiz? Officially, no injury listed at this time. Unofficially, he got the thumb caught in a jersey and got bent back. He is day to day. Will probably be a game day decision. I agree with you ...they need him in there. Once he was out things fell apart. There was a stretch after he was gone where Day gave up 7 TOs in 5 mins. I will keep an eye on the situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 OK, a thumb bent back, this most likely means a dislocation MCP (MetaCarpal Phalangeal) joint. Being the thumb joint it is a very versatile joint that is hard to put back together properly. It oftentimes requires open surgery by hand specialists to set properly. If this man required open surgery to reset the joint, he will most certainly not be ready by the time of the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 -any thread with Phalangeal is a good thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 7 hours ago, The Wiz said: It would be a big stain. It would mean that Day would have to win the A10 tourney. ...which to answer your question would probably knock them out of an at large bid. But as I answered in a different thread (just sayin' thread) ...It depends on who Day is up against...this is a computer prediction based on data.... The NCAA has the right to over rule the computers ( my computer or The NET). If Day is up against Long Beach St then they are in....if they are going against St. John's then they are out. You are kind of in no man's land. So I pushed the computer...I told it to think like the Committee...what would they do with a 2 losses in March Dayton team? (this assumes that the final loss is in the conference final...an earlier loss in the tourney combined with a loss to SLU and they are toast) The answer was... it would give Dayton a play in bid as a first 4 team to be played in Dayton. Ah, you've got to like a machine doing dumb things. It ain't easy being the Committee. any team that loses to SLU sucks, Wiz. If Dayton were to do the unthinkable it would be the end of their season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Before everyone gets into this personally, Team Rankings has Dayton favored to win by 8.5 pts which is virtually identical to the Wiz prediction. Your computer is probably better than my pessimism in regards to the outcome of this game Wiz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 First, let's start on a positive note...a very successful Senior night as Jimerson and Hargrove combined for 41 pts and 63% from the field. They went out with a bang. And the Bills went out with a thud. After giving up a buck worth of pts, tomorrow's defensive numbers should be interesting /scary. Figuring out what happened against Day should be relatively easy. You should know the drill by now. TOs....we win that battle 7-12...Good start...we avoid the auto loss and that stat evens up the game....we then need to win one of the next 2 stats to have a chance to win the game....FG% & Rebs....Unfortunately we lost both stats and therefore the game. The funny thing is we had one of our best nights of the season from inside the arc....66%. But a dismal game from 3....26%....Day shot more than double our percentage and triple the number of 3s we made...SLU 6...Day ...18.....This one stat accounted for an extra 36 pts for Day....it is a wonder we didn't lose by a lot more. I could go on...but no sense in beating a dead horse. Let's just give our Seniors a tip o' the cap for a great night during the game and after the game. A side note, Jimerson didn't participate in the post game as he had a ceremony last year. He deferred the spotlight to TJ which I thought was a gracious thing to do. billikenbill, CenHudDude and Billikenbooster like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRN Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 On 3/4/2024 at 11:25 AM, TRN said: If we hold this game to single digits it will be a minor miracle. SVU is coming in after losing to LUC, and going against our defense - yikes. I’m thinking more of a 15-20 point loss. I was actually right with a prediction for once. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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