The Wiz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 4th seed (unch)....NIT chances....VCU...76% (up)...Rich...60%(dn)...St. B ..54% (new)...Loy...50%(new) General Outlook........We are slowly being locked into the PIG pen. While we still can escape (2 games out) we need to win some games to do so. While Duq is a decent team(15-10 ) they are only 1 game away from the PIG sty...so they are beatable. At the beginning of the A-10 season , I said there is no team we can't beat in the conference as long as we can match that team in TOs. I will stick to that statement going forward. Once we match TOs, regardless of the spread, the game becomes an even game. Let's take a look at the game Game Preview....The Bills continue to cling to a C- rating...a team with an improving offense and a faltering defense. Duq on the other hand grades out at B . ...a poor man's VCU. Like VCU, Duq has a weak offense and a good defense. The difference between the 2 teams is that Duq is a step down from VCU both in offense and defense. You could call Duq ...VCU lite. Grant and Clark are their go to guys. Unlike a lot of A-10 teams, Duq will come at you with a more traditional lineup of 2 guards and 3 forwards. Much of their scoring will be inside. As I mentioned above and you will see below in the report card...Duq has a weak offense EXCEPT if you leave them open. They don't take many shots but when they do they try to make them count. Bother them and we have a chance to win. Let's look at the card.... Report Card.... The Card is down.....2 up ( Off ) and 3 down (1 Off & 2 Def) .................SLU............DUQ................SLU...................DUQ ...........................OFF........................................DEF.......... PPG............C..................D...................F........................B+ FG%...........C..................D...................D+......................B 3P%...........A-.................C-.................D........................B- FT%...........B...................D............................. Reb...........D...................C..................D+......................C OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....PPG...FG%.....Def...none Down.........Off...Reb......Def...PPG...3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...56th...dn Duq Blks...Dixon...45th Stls...Clark...29th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills... Meadows...Quest...2/16...back Duq.. None Keys to the Game.......Control Grant and Clark and you control the game. If you can tamp them down they will look for Dixon as the escape hatch. Don't dribble into Dixon, he is looking for the block and if Clark is guarding you protect the ball as he is looking for the steal. Get some rebounds...no second chance shots for Duq. WWN2D2W...Target slash--Beat Duq across the slash line.....Match them in TOs and Rebs....Hold Grant and Clark to 25pts... Bottom line......... Grab a rebound And put a shot back in Bother Duquesne And we can leave town with a win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 They have a top 100 block guy? Duq by 12 it's over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Our rebounds are ranked D and D+, while Duquesne is ranked C and C. After TOs, this would seem to be the most important stat. The Billikens will be hard pressed to match them on rebounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 32 minutes ago, CenHudDude said: Our rebounds are ranked D and D+, while Duquesne is ranked C and C. After TOs, this would seem to be the most important stat. The Billikens will be hard pressed to match them on rebounds. The Rebs are an important stat....I am showing Duq by 2 on Rebs....In the last 2 games Ez has had 3 and 4 rebs....If he can get back to his average of 6 we could come up with enough to match them. Their big rebounder Drame averages less than Ez. The other important factor after TOs is FG%....and the computer says we are the better shooting team. A good night from the field would go along way towards a win. CenHudDude likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenblue Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 5 hours ago, The Wiz said: Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 4th seed (unch)....NIT chances....VCU...76% (up)...Rich...60%(dn)...St. B ..54% (new)...Loy...50%(new) General Outlook........We are slowly being locked into the PIG pen. While we still can escape (2 games out) we need to win some games to do so. While Duq is a decent team(15-10 ) they are only 1 game away from the PIG sty...so they are beatable. At the beginning of the A-10 season , I said there is no team we can't beat in the conference as long as we can match that team in TOs. I will stick to that statement going forward. Once we match TOs, regardless of the spread, the game becomes an even game. Let's take a look at the game Game Preview....The Bills continue to cling to a C- rating...a team with an improving offense and a faltering defense. Duq on the other hand grades out at B . ...a poor man's VCU. Like VCU, Duq has a weak offense and a good defense. The difference between the 2 teams is that Duq is a step down from VCU both in offense and defense. You could call Duq ...VCU lite. Grant and Clark are their go to guys. Unlike a lot of A-10 teams, Duq will come at you with a more traditional lineup of 2 guards and 3 forwards. Much of their scoring will be inside. As I mentioned above and you will see below in the report card...Duq has a weak offense EXCEPT if you leave them open. They don't take many shots but when they do they try to make them count. Bother them and we have a chance to win. Let's look at the card.... Report Card.... The Card is down.....2 up ( Off ) and 3 down (1 Off & 2 Def) .................SLU............DUQ................SLU...................DUQ ...........................OFF........................................DEF.......... PPG............C..................D...................F........................B+ FG%...........C..................D...................D+......................B 3P%...........A-.................C-.................D........................B- FT%...........B...................D............................. Reb...........D...................C..................D+......................C OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....PPG...FG%.....Def...none Down.........Off...Reb......Def...PPG...3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...56th...dn Duq Blks...Dixon...45th Stls...Clark...29th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills... Meadows...Quest...2/16...back Duq.. None Keys to the Game.......Control Grant and Clark and you control the game. If you can tamp them down they will look for Dixon as the escape hatch. Don't dribble into Dixon, he is looking for the block and if Clark is guarding you protect the ball as he is looking for the steal. Get some rebounds...no second chance shots for Duq. WWN2D2W...Target slash--Beat Duq across the slash line.....Match them in TOs and Rebs....Hold Grant and Clark to 25pts... Bottom line......... Grab a rebound And put a shot back in Bother Duquesne And we can leave town with a win. We are not 2 games out from PIG Tuesday ...first day has 6 teams/3games this year ...we will be playing on the first day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 21 minutes ago, billikenblue said: We are not 2 games out from PIG Tuesday ...first day has 6 teams/3games this year ...we will be playing on the first day Right now we have an iron grip on the #15 seed in the A10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Wiz, you must be one of the most optimistic people I have ever seen, and you are correct that as long as some combination of stats gives a possibility of winning we have a reason to be optimistic, even if it is not much optimism. It would help if we won this the next week and LaSalle lost, that would make us even in the bottom spot of the A10, not two slots below La Salle. Somehow, however, it just does not appear to me that we will do so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, billikenblue said: We are not 2 games out from PIG Tuesday ...first day has 6 teams/3games this year ...we will be playing on the first day You are correct ...there are 6 teams now in the enlarged PIG pen....But, in the end it doesn't change things much. With the RI loss today and a win over Duq on Tues , the Bills would be 2 1/2 out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 -Duq and Rhodey are both 5-7 --- we are 2-10 -- to get out of the PIG we have to climb over LaS, GW, FU, Davidson and one of Duq or Rhodey --all of this with 6 games to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 11 minutes ago, Cowboy II said: -Duq and Rhodey are both 5-7 --- we are 2-10 -- to get out of the PIG we have to climb over LaS, GW, FU, Davidson and one of Duq or Rhodey --all of this with 6 games to go Exactly. Climbing out of the PIG is not mathematically impossible, but it would require SLU to win the majority of its 6 games remaining, while requiring a bunch of A10 teams to lose a lot of their remaining games. We might get out of the #15 seed, but I don’t see us climbing to #9 to get out of the PIG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 I didn't say it would be easy. On the other hand half of the remaining 6 games will be against PIG teams. RI and Duq are tied for the last PIG pen spot. Unlikely that they or GW will run the table. Two of the other 3 games will be at the Fetz...so they will be close games. In any case, to have any more wins, The Bills will need to step up their game. The clock is ticking..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRN Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 13 hours ago, Lord Elrond said: Right now we have an iron grip on the #15 seed in the A10 And we’re the only A10 team with under 10 total wins. That’s what $2.5M a year and a “plan” will get you. I’d better watch it or the Lilliputian coach will challenge me to a duel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 10 hours ago, TRN said: And we’re the only A10 team with under 10 total wins. That’s what $2.5M a year and a “plan” will get you. I’d better watch it or the Lilliputian coach will challenge me to a duel. If he fights a fan he might get fired. We should be "letting him have it" at home games. He might go out of control and do something to get himself fired. Id be willing to take a punch from CTF if it means getting him out of St Louis for good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 12 hours ago, Soderball said: If he fights a fan he might get fired. We should be "letting him have it" at home games. He might go out of control and do something to get himself fired. Id be willing to take a punch from CTF if it means getting him out of St Louis for good. And surely it'd reduce, if not completely eliminate, his buyout. We might even need to send fans to road games to make sure we accomplish this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The computer couldn’t conceive of how badly SLU would play tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said: The computer couldn’t conceive of how badly SLU would play tonight. Feast of the Inaccurate Conception? billikenbill, maverick and willie like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The computer is definitely going SkyNet after being exposed to this stuff. @The Wiz you have to stop subjecting the computer to this bad billiken basketball. Science isn't ready for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Another loss, SLU still firmly at the bottom of A10. This time SLU actually did better than the opponents in turnovers. I am sorry Wiz. I did not see the game, but I heard the game over the radio. Initially in the game I could recognize Ford's voice screaming in the background. Perhaps the KMOX people were located close to the Bill's location. This obviously did not work either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 Another painful loss. Let's start with The Wiz's TO formula....For those who haven't been paying attention, it says if we lose the TO battle we lose the game about 80% of the time...no other stats necessary. One of the few pieces of good news in this game is we won the TO battle. Again if you have been following the formula, winning the TO battle doesn't mean you win the game...it just means you have escaped an automatic loss.....In other words once you tie or win the TO battle you have a 50-50 chance of winning the game. The tie breaker is you have to then win 1 of 2 stats to win the game....FG% or Rebs. Unfortunately for The Bills, the formula worked again. We lost both stats...FG%...SLU 41%....Duq 51% and Rebs...SLU...29....Duq...34..... So no surprises for the computer... A few other random numbers and tidbits. From the original post in this thread, you can see that Duq doesn't have as good an offense as we do and that given a normal game we should be able to sweep the slash line. Instead Duq sweeps us....The Bills 41/28/73...Duq...51/35/84. The other number that jumps out is scoring defense...if you have been following the report cards you will note we are down to F in opp PPG. In the last 4 games we are at F- giving up nearly 87 pts /gm. (8th worst ITN). Even in the LaS win the Explorers scored an unacceptable 84 pts. The strategy of trying to win by out scoring the opponent without playing defense usually does not work because either you go cold or the opponent gets hot. And remember, if you are not playing defense even the bad offenses can score off of you. Lastly, I heard the Coach say in the pregame that the team had spent 95% of the practice time practicing defense. Giving up 80+ PPG is not a winning strategy. Teams with worse offenses than ours...Duq, VCU, St. J and LaS (our last 4 games) all scored 80+ pts. We need to try something different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
73Billiken Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Even if Rick Majerus came back this team is incapable of playing defense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 On 2/20/2024 at 9:45 PM, The Wiz said: Another painful loss. Let's start with The Wiz's TO formula....For those who haven't been paying attention, it says if we lose the TO battle we lose the game about 80% of the time...no other stats necessary. One of the few pieces of good news in this game is we won the TO battle. Again if you have been following the formula, winning the TO battle doesn't mean you win the game...it just means you have escaped an automatic loss.....In other words once you tie or win the TO battle you have a 50-50 chance of winning the game. The tie breaker is you have to then win 1 of 2 stats to win the game....FG% or Rebs. Unfortunately for The Bills, the formula worked again. We lost both stats...FG%...SLU 41%....Duq 51% and Rebs...SLU...29....Duq...34..... So no surprises for the computer... A few other random numbers and tidbits. From the original post in this thread, you can see that Duq doesn't have as good an offense as we do and that given a normal game we should be able to sweep the slash line. Instead Duq sweeps us....The Bills 41/28/73...Duq...51/35/84. The other number that jumps out is scoring defense...if you have been following the report cards you will note we are down to F in opp PPG. In the last 4 games we are at F- giving up nearly 87 pts /gm. (8th worst ITN). Even in the LaS win the Explorers scored an unacceptable 84 pts. The strategy of trying to win by out scoring the opponent without playing defense usually does not work because either you go cold or the opponent gets hot. And remember, if you are not playing defense even the bad offenses can score off of you. Lastly, I heard the Coach say in the pregame that the team had spent 95% of the practice time practicing defense. Giving up 80+ PPG is not a winning strategy. Teams with worse offenses than ours...Duq, VCU, St. J and LaS (our last 4 games) all scored 80+ pts. We need to try something different. -CFord was quoted a couple of weeks ago saying they try something different each day, it could be him again just saying something but if true I think it's at least part the problem, if not a big part Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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