O.T. Conference Shuffle ( OU and Texas inquire about joining SEC)

[Lord Elrond]

34 minutes ago, brianstl said:

They hold all the cards until they try to form something on their own and they are slapped with an anti trust case.

There is some truth to that, anything that the SEC and Big 10 try to form will have to deal with being required to follow all the same laws and losing lawsuits as the NCAA. I’m sure that the SEC and Big 10 are arrogant enough to think that it won’t apply to them.

[TheA_Bomb]

45 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:

There is some truth to that, anything that the SEC and Big 10 try to form will have to deal with being required to follow all the same laws and losing lawsuits as the NCAA. I’m sure that the SEC and Big 10 are arrogant enough to think that it won’t apply to them.

Wrong. The SEC and Big 10 are smarter than the NCAA and will have learned from the NCAA's mistakes. 

[Lord Elrond]

5 minutes ago, TheA_Bomb said:

Wrong. The SEC and Big 10 are smarter than the NCAA and will have learned from the NCAA's mistakes. 

I find it hard to believe that they are stupider than the NCAA (few people and organizations are). They are, however, full of arrogance and they will have a very hard time swallowing that to come an arrangement with the athletes that will comply with what the courts have imposed.

[brianstl]

23 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:

I find it hard to believe that they are stupider than the NCAA (few people and organizations are). They are, however, full of arrogance and they will have a very hard time swallowing that to come an arrangement with the athletes that will comply with what the courts have imposed.

The big problem for them splitting off wont be arrangements with athletes, it will be all the schools left behind filing ant-trust suits against them.  And that is before you get the 40-42 senators in states with no program in either conference deciding their number one priority will be to target the federal funding for those schools.

The real power the SEC and Big 10 have is the threat to leave.  They can gain big concessions with that.  Actually leaving is way too risky legally.  That means they probably will leave and get their ass handed to them.

[TheA_Bomb]

27 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:

I find it hard to believe that they are stupider than the NCAA (few people and organizations are). They are, however, full of arrogance and they will have a very hard time swallowing that to come an arrangement with the athletes that will comply with what the courts have imposed.

Huh? They are complying. The SEC (via Tenn) is the reason there's an injunction on the NCAA enforcing NIL restrictions. Not sure where the arrogance part comes into play. These are the two dominant conferences in many sports. They are negotiating from a position of strength. Why would they ever agree that the SEC has only 1 auto qualifier for the playoff and the MWC conference has one as well? As if those 2 conferences are equal. They're not equal. They're looking out for the best interests of their member schools.

[Lord Elrond]

44 minutes ago, TheA_Bomb said:

Huh? They are complying. The SEC (via Tenn) is the reason there's an injunction on the NCAA enforcing NIL restrictions. Not sure where the arrogance part comes into play. These are the two dominant conferences in many sports. They are negotiating from a position of strength. Why would they ever agree that the SEC has only 1 auto qualifier for the playoff and the MWC conference has one as well? As if those 2 conferences are equal. They're not equal. They're looking out for the best interests of their member schools.

The problem is that the rate of growth in the money being put out is out of control, even by the standards of the donors at the major universities. But how do they rein that in without exposing themselves to a losing antitrust suit themselves? The only way I can see is that they need to take their football and men’s basketball programs out of the university, make them professional, don’t put any student requirements on the players at all, and set up the teams as a marketing association with the university only (use the name of the university for their team). You then use the professional status of the players to establish a collective bargaining agreement similar to the NFL and NBA where revenue is shared to put all this on a financially sustainable path. Will the SEC and Big 10 do this? Will they be able to swallow their egos enough to make this happen? I’m curious to see. As we agree, they are smarter than the NCAA, can they be nimble enough to figure it out? Or will they kill the goose that lays the golden eggs?  The only other real model that works for developing athletes is from the soccer world, with different levels of clubs that survive on transfer fees of players that exists in the soccer world.

[brianstl]

Clemson has filed suit against the ACC over their grant of rights.

 

[Cowboy II]

16 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Clemson has filed suit against the ACC over their grant of rights.

 

-did FL St also do this? I wonder if they could tag team the ACC? 

[sludevil]

2 minutes ago, Cowboy II said:

-did FL St also do this? I wonder if they could tag team the ACC? 

That's effectively what's happening, though FSU filed in Florida and Clemson in South Carolina. Their legal arguments are also different: FSU is basically going for broke (i.e., GoR should be thrown out), while Clemson is taking a somewhat more nuanced approach (i.e., once we exit the conference, the GoR no longer applies to us).

It sure looks like FSU and Clemson coordinated their suits and arguments - so if they can't win on FSU's case, they may be able to use Clemson's case as a fallback. And, of course, defending suits on multiple fronts will further pressure the ACC to settle.

In any event, the ACC is dead. It's just a matter of time.

[brianstl]

4 minutes ago, sludevil said:

That's effectively what's happening, though FSU filed in Florida and Clemson in South Carolina. Their legal arguments are also different: FSU is basically going for broke (i.e., GoR should be thrown out), while Clemson is taking a somewhat more nuanced approach (i.e., once we exit the conference, the GoR no longer applies to us).

It sure looks like FSU and Clemson coordinated their suits and arguments - so if they can't win on FSU's case, they may be able to use Clemson's case as a fallback. And, of course, defending suits on multiple fronts will further pressure the ACC to settle.

In any event, the ACC is dead. It's just a matter of time.

I don't think the ACC is dead.  There aren't enough landing spots for their members for the ACC to be dead.  

[BLIKNS]

Could see West Virginia, UCF, and Cincinnati traded from the Big 12 to the ACC for Stanford,Cal , and SMU

 

[sludevil]

2 minutes ago, brianstl said:

I don't think the ACC is dead.  There aren't enough landing spots for their members for the ACC to be dead.  

Very true. I should've clarified that the ACC is dead as a "power" conference. Something will happen with the ACC and the B12 - either a combination of some sort, or just a handful of ACC teams joining the B12. (And there's probably even room for a tier below that with WSU/OSU + the ACC leftovers, if any + maybe the better AAC/MWC teams. There are lots of possibilities, but all of them are far worse for the teams involved than when we had a true P5 structure.)

[billiken_roy]

12 minutes ago, brianstl said:

I don't think the ACC is dead.  There aren't enough landing spots for their members for the ACC to be dead.  

the A10 should be lobbying for the ACC members not spoken for.   lets see how our grand commish reacts.   im betting she doesnt do a dam thing.

[brianstl]

10 minutes ago, BLIKNS said:

Could see West Virginia, UCF, and Cincinnati traded from the Big 12 to the ACC for Stanford,Cal , and SMU

 

If the Big 12 wanted Standford, Cal or SMU, they would be in the Big 12 already.

[ACE]

Just now, billiken_roy said:

the A10 should be lobbying for the ACC members not spoken for.   lets see how our grand commish reacts.   im betting she doesnt do a dam thing.

Football playing ACC schools would be interested in going to the A-10? Really?

[billiken_roy]

1 minute ago, ACE said:

Football playing ACC schools would be interested in going to the A-10? Really?

ok bernie.   look that's her issue.   she should at least have the conversation.   how often will we see schools of that magnitude looking for a new home?   

[Lord Elrond]

1 minute ago, billiken_roy said:

ok bernie.   look that's her issue.   she should at least have the conversation.   how often will we see schools of that magnitude looking for a new home?   

Here’s a transcript of the phone coversation:

Bernadette talking to AD of ACC school playing FBS football: “Hi! Are you interested in joining the A10?”

AD of ACC school playing FBS football -“click…” followed by dead air

Bernadette: “Hello? Hello?”

I’m not sure what the future of the ACC may or may not be, but they are not going to join a non-football playing conference, you can bet on that.

[sludevil]

Also depends on the legal requirements that are in place when the dust settles. If schools are forced to treat players as employees (and/or share revenue with players), then that probably creates another massive shock.

The only real guarantee is that the top B10 and SEC teams will be fine. Everyone else (including the "lesser" teams in the B10/SEC) is on less solid footing.

[Cowboy II]

1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

ok bernie.   look that's her issue.   she should at least have the conversation.   how often will we see schools of that magnitude looking for a new home?   

-when you met with Bernadette in Myrtle Beach how was the conversation?

[cheeseman]

2 hours ago, Lord Elrond said:

Here’s a transcript of the phone coversation:

Bernadette talking to AD of ACC school playing FBS football: “Hi! Are you interested in joining the A10?”

AD of ACC school playing FBS football -“click…” followed by dead air

Bernadette: “Hello? Hello?”

I’m not sure what the future of the ACC may or may not be, but they are not going to join a non-football playing conference, you can bet on that.

UCONN did.  They left for football then returned when the football thing didn't work for them.  I don't think they gave up football?

[TheA_Bomb]

4 hours ago, sludevil said:

Also depends on the legal requirements that are in place when the dust settles. If schools are forced to treat players as employees (and/or share revenue with players), then that probably creates another massive shock.

The only real guarantee is that the top B10 and SEC teams will be fine. Everyone else (including the "lesser" teams in the B10/SEC) is on less solid footing.

Ross Dellenger reported that ESPN can void the ACC grant of Rights in the near future by discontinuing the TV contract or something.  

I think this move is more about forcing ESPN to void the ACC GoR.  ESPN owns SEC rights.  ESPN like other networks is losing money. So they want to pay the SEC more to add 2 marquee teams and drop the ACC.  Gotta think they wouldn't be doing this unless discussions have already happened with SEC.

I think it'll happen the other viable teams will go B10, then the rest will figure something out.  

Wonder if SMU put a clause on their $400mil payment for every terms.  They're paying a lot to enter what might be a smouldering hole soon.

[Lord Elrond]

3 hours ago, cheeseman said:

UCONN did.  They left for football then returned when the football thing didn't work for them.  I don't think they gave up football?

UConn left the AAC (American Athletic Conference), not the ACC (Atlantic Coast Conference). Completely different pay zone.  They joined the Big East and wanted to stay in the AAC as an affiliate, but the AAC said no.  When they went independent, there were plenty of other independents, but in the last few years just about every FBS school has seen the financial advantages of joining a conference and had done so (Delaware to CUSA, Army to the AAC as a football only affiliate, and UMass to the MAC). Right now there are only 2 FBS schools that will not in a conference for football after UMass joins the MAC, Notre Dame and UConn. UConn’s financial situation in football is in no way comparable to Notre Dame’s (UConn has no national contract that I can find, their last one was with CBS, but got killed in 2021).   The UConn football on field lack of success also doesn’t help. If they were able to join the MAC or C-USA as an affiliate only for football they should make that deal in a heartbeat. 
 

If anything, UConn demonstrates the financial issues of going with a basketball only conference if you want to stay relevant in FBS football as well. It used to be you could be independent in football, but in this day and age, unless you are Notre Dame, the life of an FBS independent is not great. 

[billiken_roy]

3 hours ago, Cowboy II said:

-when you met with Bernadette in Myrtle Beach how was the conversation?

I refused to talk to her.   Afraid it would get ugly and I'd do something id regret

[brianstl]

46 minutes ago, TheA_Bomb said:

Ross Dellenger reported that ESPN can void the ACC grant of Rights in the near future by discontinuing the TV contract or something.  

I think this move is more about forcing ESPN to void the ACC GoR.  ESPN owns SEC rights.  ESPN like other networks is losing money. So they want to pay the SEC more to add 2 marquee teams and drop the ACC.  Gotta think they wouldn't be doing this unless discussions have already happened with SEC.

I think it'll happen the other viable teams will go B10, then the rest will figure something out.  

Wonder if SMU put a clause on their $400mil payment for every terms.  They're paying a lot to enter what might be a smouldering hole soon.

Why would the ESPN want to give $25 million per year rights increase to Clemson and FSU.  They got them locked in cheap for another 12 years,  plus they get UNC, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Miami.  They blow the ACC up they lose really valuable properties in UNC and Virginia who will run to the Big 10 most likely.  What ESPN might do is let go of the grant of right if UNC and Virginia agree to join the SEC.  They aren't going to let those two schools walk to Fox.  They are more valuable to ESPN as SEC teams than FSU and Clemson.

[TheA_Bomb]

1 minute ago, brianstl said:

Why would the ESPN want to give $25 million per year rights increase to Clemson and FSU.  They got them locked in cheap for another 12 years,  plus they get UNC, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Miami.  They blow the ACC up they lose really valuable properties in UNC and Virginia who will run to the Big 10 most likely.  What ESPN might do is let go of the grant of right if UNC and Virginia agree to join the SEC.  They aren't going to let those two schools walk to Fox.  They are more valuable to ESPN as SEC teams than FSU and Clemson.

Because they see the future and only the SEC and B10 matter.  Yeah they'll pay less for an SEC that has all the good ACC teams in it.  This way they control where Clemson, FSU go instead of going to the B10.