The Bills over UMass by 12

[The Wiz]

Before we get started with the game ...let's clear up a few things.

1...Double bye....Is there still a chance for a double bye?...Yes and no... Yes, statistically  it is still possible...If Richmond loses to St. J at Rich and we win on Mon against UMass ...we get the double bye...I have Rich by 17 over St. J ...so realistically  no.

2...Top 4 in A10..we needed Dav to lose this afternoon to have a good chance to finish in the top 4. ...Dav squeezed us out by the slightest of margins...assuming we win against UMass...the tie breaker goes to Dav 57.1% to 55.6%...Dav wins by playing 2 games less than us...they played all the key A10 opponents once... we played Day and LaS twice....if we played them once like Dav did, the final position would have been decided by a coin toss,,,Btw had we played Dav on Jan 15 at the Fetz as scheduled , we would have been a heavy favorite.  Knowing the 4th spot is an important one,  the A10 should have left a couple of days to allow an extra game...especially if the 4th spot is in question and the 2 teams have not played head to head.

3...Big Dance Chance .....Right now, I have us listed as last 4 in...That just means if the selection were today we would have a chance to be the last 4 in.  Looking forward to what our chances are... First, we have to win against UMass...which we should. Then we are looking at 4 A10 tourney games....Again, assuming a UMass win ...at the beginning of the tourney, we have a 1/3 chance of getting a bid. From there, you can add about 10% for each game we win...if a loss occurs then subtract around 6 % and you will have our approximate chances along the way....For example, if we win 3 tourney games next week, our chances going into the championship game will be about 63%.

Which brings us to the UMass game...all this assumes we win the game.  If we don't, then it is simple ....we have to win the tourney. Looking at the numbers and the grades, you ask how can a team like UMass be competing for a top 4 position in the A10 or a bid to the Dance...They have only played 12 games...for the whole season.  They are overall,  a B-  team .  As they have completed their 12 game minimum data sample size...usually done after OOC preseason... their rating would look like this...a range of C+ to B for the A10 conf season.... which would place them somewhere between 7th and  10 place in the A10....with a chance to finish as a last 4 out....of the NIT.   My purpose in this paragraph was not to rag on UMass but to come down on the league for not devising a better system to determine who are the best teams in the A10.

Well enough of that ...As mentioned above, UMass is a B- team trending at B...we are an A- team ...trending at B+.   UMass has a weak offense (they can't shoot) ...best offensive feature...FTs....The defense is weak too...best defensive feature is they do an OK job of defending the 3.

Let's look at the report card.

 

..........................SLU.........................UMass...............................SLU.....................................UMass

........................................OFF...............................................................................DEF...............

PPG......................B+...............................B+................................A-........................................D+

FG%......................B+...............................D-.................................B+........................................D-

3Pt%.....................B-................................D..................................C+........................................C+

FT%......................D+....... ........................B................................................................................

Reb......................A....................................C.....................................A.........................................D-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Offense...3P%.....Reb ..........Defense .......Reb

Down...Offense......FT%.........Defense......3P%

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)

Assts...Collins...12th ...up

Rebs...Goodwin....16th....dn

Stls......Goodwin...69th....dn

Double Double....Goodwin...6th ....dn

UMass

PPG......Mitchell...51st

Stls......Fernandes...93rd

 

No injuries to report for either team.

 

So there is something strange about this team....they can't shoot but they can score.  How do they do it ...as the car dealer says....They do it with volume.  2nd chance shots, causing TOs  and making foul shots. This should be a relatively easy puzzle to solve.

WWN2D2W...First, we have to stop Mitchell...he is their big gun ...hold this guy to 15pts.....their next 5 players are 4 guards and a forward who all score about 10 PPG...we should hold this team to 65 pts. This is all about limiting their 2nd chances...REBOUND...especially defensive rebs...protect the ball ...they have a low TO ratio  plus they force TOs...we need to match them on TOs....The last game showed some shooting promise...let's keep it going...48/36/70.

Bottom line....If we show up AND play, we win. We are the better team ...we just need to play like it. 

[NextYearBill]

just win baby

[Taj79]

Umass is all Tre Mitchell.  He can score inside and if you sluff off him on the perimeter, he can shoot from there.  He is/was a matchup problem for us last year in the game at Amherst.  If I recall the game at Chaifetz, he was in foul trouble and not much of a factor.  Will we be the recipient of the usual A10 referee crucifixion of Fre3nch on his Senior Night or not?  

Noah Fernandes, the transfer from Wichita State is a nice point guard.  He can score (11 ppg) and assist (aabout 6 apg).  Carl Pierre is the lone senior and his season this year mimics that of his career --- up and down.  He is mainly a three-point threat and if he comes out hot, he will stay hot usually.  Hot or not, he will jack things up most times.  Ronnie DeGray III is the starting forward.  He is mainly a support player in this his freshman year but despite an unconventional looking shot, he will launch threes if left alone.  And I've seen him make them.  Mostly he is a defender and a rebounder and most points from him are likely considered gravy.

The fifth spot has been rotated mostly between freshmen TJ Weeks and Javohn Garcia.  Both seem out of control most times to me and liking of every shot they can get.  Garcia will slash and drive more ala Jhamir Watkins at VCU and Weeks is more of a Pierre clone, jacking away from deep.  The bench is mostly Cairo McCrory and Dibaji Walker.  Neither do much; Walker reminds me of Antwan Walker over at URI but no matter both are incredibly inconsistent.  The 6'10" transfer Mark Gaseprini hasn't done much this year for the Minutemen.  He'll spell Mitchell and that's about it.

Umass again plays matador defense.  They come out in a full court press but it's pretty emplty as far as defense is concerned.  McCall seems to just use it to speed up the game, and get them more possessions after the opposition scores.  This was the case last year as well.  In the one real game of note that I saw, Davidson just schooled them both inside and out.  It seemed to be a case of an educated, smarter, veteran team just imposing it's will on the younger team and making them pay for every little mistake they made.  Davidson won in Amherst by 9 then.  In that game, Mitchell went out with a shoulder injury late and missed the Fordham and Rhode Island games after that.  He cam eback against Richmond thi spast week but did not start and only got 22 mpg for 9 points in that loss.  

All in all, I think it will be interesting.  I think Senior Night for Goodwin and French and Perkins should give us added ooomph but with this team, you never seem to know.

 

[HoosierPal]

Biggest unasked question, does Senior Joshua Hightower start against UMass on Senior Night?  I say he does.  Coach started Raibon on Senior Day last season, so why now Hightower this year?

[Fraz]

Perkins coming back

[NH]

5 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Biggest unasked question, does Senior Joshua Hightower start against UMass on Senior Night?  I say he does.  Coach started Raibon on Senior Day last season, so why now Hightower this year?

I agree he does, unless Hightower has indicated that he'd like to return next season (which I assume the staff would be open to as he seems like a high quality walk-on).

[Old guy]

Let's assume we win over UMass. Go Bills!

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, NH said:

I agree he does, unless Hightower has indicated that he'd like to return next season (which I assume the staff would be open to as he seems like a high quality walk-on).

I don't know anything about his situation, but on the radio (maybe it was Rammer or Frank C on the Press Box) I heard he has a kid on the way.  Earning a paycheck may become a higher priority than walking on for his third year.  Don't know.  But I do agree he has been an asset to the program.

[The Wiz]

 

Bolded comments are from the original post above

Double bye....Is there still a chance for a double bye?...Yes and no... Yes, statistically  it is still possible...If Richmond loses to St. J at Rich and we win on Mon against UMass ...we get the double bye... And the miracle happens as Richmond is upset at home....It may be hard being a Bills fan but it is not impossible as the impossible happened tonight.

Top 4 in A10 ...I will do a review of the Fri game possibilities tomorrow (Tues)

Big Dance Chance ...That too will be in tomorrow's (Tues) review. 

The Game

First, we have to stop Mitchell...he is their big gun ...hold this guy to 15pts ....we did....excellent

their next 5 players are 4 guards and a forward who all score about 10 PPG ... This works out to 50 pts....Their next 5 players scored 47....The best part is  no more scoring...that was it ...

we should hold this team to 65 pts.... 47 + 10 (Mitchell) = 57......Another check mark

REBOUND...especially defensive rebs ...We did...36 (including 22 def rebs) and yet another check mark

they have a low TO ratio ...Not for this game ...17 vs an 11 ave...up over 50%...we need to match them on TOs...13 vs 17=-4 ... double check

48/36/70. ... 50/ 60/ 80 = 190......we killed it...these are RM numbers...He use to say "any game that was a 180+  was a winning game"

Looking at the numbers and the grades, you ask how can a team like UMass be competing for a top 4 position in the A10  ...They weren't and they aren't.

We are the better team ...we just need to play like it. ... We were and we did

If we show up AND play, we win. ...We did, we did and we did....checkmate

We are rounding into shape.   In the last few games we have seen the return of the old  French and  excellent team shooting .   We are closing in on our previous peak ...Xmas eve.   I think we can be there by the end of the A10 tourney.