The Bills and Duq are even

[The Wiz]

We continue to hold on to B-....no real difference in the overall numbers as we continue to do what we are supposed to do.  While our shooting continues to be poor and erratic....it is nonetheless becoming more predictable ...as is our excellent defense... also more predictable.  So after 29 games some stabilization out of chaos.  One of the things that has happened since the departure of Goodwin is there is no more trend line.  The trend line and the main line have come together as one.  What does this mean?  It means this is who we are......a borderline B- team.  At B- there is nobody in the A-10 we can't beat when we have a good game ...ie... shoot well and avoid mistakes and TOs. It would be great to catch a double bye in the tourney due to our limited depth. Thus the next 2 games are extremely important. As you can see,  this game is up for grabs and we will be a slight under dog in the St. B game. So let's see what we are up against with Duq.

 

...................SLU...............OFF...............Duq....................................SLU....................DEF.....................Duq

PPG..............F......................................D+ .......................................A ...............................................B

FG%.............F+......................................F+ .......................................B+...............................................C-

3P%.............F........................................C-........................................C+...............................................A

FT%.............F .......................................D-................................................................................................

Reb.............B.......................................B............................................A-..............................................C

Top performers in the nation

Blks.......French........46th

.............Verhoeven....30th

Reb.........Williams......56th

Bottomline.... They have us beat at the arc ...both on O & D...but we have them beat on paper overall.  There offense is similar to ours ...in that both are poor... but they have the edge in 3 pt shooting ...On the D side we have them beat except they are good at stopping the 3  which isn't our strong suit anyway. We need to beat them inside...we need to make the easy shots. That is made a little tougher by Verhoeven their shot blocker  but we have enough  presence to overcome that...We have to finish.  Mr Duq is Williams who leads in pts, reb and stls.  We need to stop him....11 pts and 7 reb. This will be a close game ...back and forth with neither team taking command. They have just enough weapons to beat us...if we let them.  We need to win the battles of Reb , TOs and FTs. How about the slash line?  If we put up the same slash as we did against GW we lose. 

I think even though the computer has us even ...we have the edge....After the OOC schedule Duq had a good record on the softest schedule in college basketball. We are not just talking about F-...we are talking about the #1 easiest schedule in Div 1.  Since then, their schedule difficulty has come up to D- (btw ...they are a C team overall) I believe a lot of those soft numbers are still built in to their stats ( although I have tried to correct it using recent trends)  So overall we should have an edge...depending on which Bills team shows. I think, for this game,  if we can beat 42 / 32 / 65 ...we win.

It's ours for the taking.

[HoosierPal]

21 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

We continue to hold on to B-....no real difference in the overall numbers as we continue to do what we are supposed to do.  While our shooting continues to be poor and erratic....it is nonetheless becoming more predictable ...as is our excellent defense... also more predictable.  So after 29 games some stabilization out of chaos.  One of the things that has happened since the departure of Goodwin is there is no more trend line.  The trend line and the main line have come together as one.  What does this mean?  It means this is who we are......a borderline B- team.  At B- there is nobody in the A-10 we can't beat when we have a good game ...ie... shoot well and avoid mistakes and TOs. It would be great to catch a double bye in the tourney due to our limited depth. Thus the next 2 games are extremely important. As you can see,  this game is up for grabs and we will be a slight under dog in the St. B game. So let's see what we are up against with Duq.

 

...................SLU...............OFF...............Duq....................................SLU....................DEF.....................Duq

PPG..............F......................................D+ .......................................A ...............................................B

FG%.............F+......................................F+ .......................................B+...............................................C-

3P%.............F........................................C-........................................C+...............................................A

FT%.............F .......................................D-................................................................................................

Reb.............B.......................................B............................................A-..............................................C

Top performers in the nation

Blks.......French........46th

.............Verhoeven....30th

Reb.........Williams......56th

Bottomline.... They have us beat at the arc ...both on O & D...but we have them beat on paper overall.  There offense is similar to ours ...in that both are poor... but they have the edge in 3 pt shooting ...On the D side we have them beat except they are good at stopping the 3  which isn't our strong suit anyway. We need to beat them inside...we need to make the easy shots. That is made a little tougher by Verhoeven their shot blocker  but we have enough  presence to overcome that...We have to finish.  Mr Duq is Williams who leads in pts, reb and stls.  We need to stop him....11 pts and 7 reb. This will be a close game ...back and forth with neither team taking command. They have just enough weapons to beat us...if we let them.  We need to win the battles of Reb , TOs and FTs. How about the slash line?  If we put up the same slash as we did against GW we lose. 

I think even though the computer has us even ...we have the edge....After the OOC schedule Duq had a good record on the softest schedule in college basketball. We are not just talking about F-...we are talking about the #1 easiest schedule in Div 1.  Since then, their schedule difficulty has come up to D- (btw ...they are a C team overall) I believe a lot of those soft numbers are still built in to their stats ( although I have tried to correct it using recent trends)  So overall we should have an edge...depending on which Bills team shows. I think, for this game,  if we can beat 42 / 32 / 65 ...we win.

It's ours for the taking.

Not gonna doubt you anymore Wiz!👍

[BillikenBoy10]

Wiz do you have the numbers to predict the other a10 games for the rest of the season?  Do you see us finishing in 4th?

[Aquinas]

 Our team is paper thin, we go from competitive or even dominant to sub par very quickly.  The drop of from our 5th man to our 6th and 7th man is huge.  An injury, illness or foul trouble puts us in immediate jepardy, especially if it's French.  We are also subject to matchup problems as Ford cant make a player change to address it.  He is doing a masterful job of keeping the opposition of balance by changing defences. In our last loss, French was in foul trouble and that forced him to play softer on defence. Given how thin this team is, any win could be our last. I have been amazed that they have won this many games without Goodwin.  It is a credit to coach Ford and these young men.

[billikenbill]

Wiz falling out of line with Sagarin who has the Bills by one. I'm going with Sagarin as the Bills eke out another grinder.

[almaman]

5 hours ago, Aquinas said:

 Our team is paper thin, we go from competitive or even dominant to sub par very quickly.  The drop of from our 5th man to our 6th and 7th man is huge.  An injury, illness or foul trouble puts us in immediate jepardy, especially if it's French.  We are also subject to matchup problems as Ford cant make a player change to address it.  He is doing a masterful job of keeping the opposition of balance by changing defences. In our last loss, French was in foul trouble and that forced him to play softer on defence. Given how thin this team is, any win could be our last. I have been amazed that they have won this many games without Goodwin.  It is a credit to coach Ford and these young men.

Well said, when perp #4 was kicked off I thought we wouldn't win again.

[The Wiz]

5 hours ago, billikenbill said:

Wiz falling out of line with Sagarin who has the Bills by one. I'm going with Sagarin as the Bills eke out another grinder.

I think Sagarin and I are pretty much in agreement....I expect Vegas to come out on Wed and  split the difference between the 2 of us  and have the Bills by 1/2 a point.

[The Wiz]

7 hours ago, BillikenBoy10 said:

Wiz do you have the numbers to predict the other a10 games for the rest of the season?  Do you see us finishing in 4th?

So we have a 1 game lead with 2 to play.  The 3 teams behind us are VCU , GMU, and St. J.

In the next 2 games....VCU...2-0....GMU....1-1.....St. J ...1-1

With that scenario,  we have to win 2 because VCU has the tie breaker with us.

Let's for the moment give the Bills the coin toss and a win over Duq....They then have to beat St. B who will be a 4 pt favorite. Maybe  with the fact that it is Senior night and the final game of their reg season for the Bills plus we will be playing for the double bye which is huge for a short handed team....maybe that will get us fired up....In addition St. B will have nothing to play for ....They are currently tied for 2nd with Dav....St. B and Dav will play one another on Tues...the winner will finish 2nd... the loser will take 3rd.  So there will be a let down for St. B regardless of the outcome.

So is there a chance the Bills go 2-0 and finish 4th ?....statistically speaking a 23 % chance....Time to cue up the Jim Carrey clip.....

[drkelsey55]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM

Dumb and Dumber- So you're telling me there's a chance

[Billiken Rich]

Even the word hopeless has hope in it......

[Cowboy]

3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

So we have a 1 game lead with 2 to play.  The 3 teams behind us are VCU , GMU, and St. J.

In the next 2 games....VCU...2-0....GMU....1-1.....St. J ...1-1

With that scenario,  we have to win 2 because VCU has the tie breaker with us.

Let's for the moment give the Bills the coin toss and a win over Duq....They then have to beat St. B who will be a 4 pt favorite. Maybe  with the fact that it is Senior night and the final game of their reg season for the Bills plus we will be playing for the double bye which is huge for a short handed team....maybe that will get us fired up....In addition St. B will have nothing to play for ....They are currently tied for 2nd with Dav....St. B and Dav will play one another on Tues...the winner will finish 2nd... the loser will take 3rd.  So there will be a let down for St. B regardless of the outcome.

So is there a chance the Bills go 2-0 and finish 4th ?....statistically speaking a 23 % chance....Time to cue up the Jim Carrey clip.....

-nothing except the ncaa tournament

[BillIkenFan_Dan]

I was wondering if they won this game, how big of a turn out we could have against St. Bonaventure. 

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Cowboy said:

-nothing except the ncaa tournament

This is true....I should have said if St. B beats Dav on Tues they will have a let down as we will be a trap game between their big win and the tourney.

[The Wiz]

11 minutes ago, BillIkenFan_Dan said:

I was wondering if they won this game, how big of a turn out we could have against St. Bonaventure. 

I think there will be a big turn out as the AD is giving out lots of free tix for the  Sat game.  BTW if anyone needs  tix  for Sat, please PM me.

[TheOne]

11 hours ago, BillIkenFan_Dan said:

I was wondering if they won this game, how big of a turn out we could have against St. Bonaventure. 

While at SLU/GW last week I was told that Chaifetz was already 80% sold out for the Bonnies game/Senior Night - SLU expecting a sell out crowd or damn near close to it. Get your tickets now..... we owe it to Roby alone who has been through a lot with this program.

[BillIkenFan_Dan]

14 minutes ago, TheOne said:

While at SLU/GW last week I was told that Chaifetz was already 80% sold out for the Bonnies game/Senior Night - SLU expecting a sell out crowd or damn near close to it. Get your tickets now..... we owe it to Roby alone who has been through a lot with this program.

Roby is definitely the number 1 reason I’m going this Saturday 

[Cowboy]

2 hours ago, TheOne said:

While at SLU/GW last week I was told that Chaifetz was already 80% sold out for the Bonnies game/Senior Night - SLU expecting a sell out crowd or damn near close to it. Get your tickets now..... we owe it to Roby alone who has been through a lot with this program.

-makes no sense why they would send additional tickets if nearing a sell out unless counting the additional tickets gets us close to a sell out, then the key is getting the tickets used

[White Pelican]

25 minutes ago, Cowboy said:

-makes no sense why they would send additional tickets if nearing a sell out unless counting the additional tickets gets us close to a sell out, then the key is getting the tickets used

I got four free tix for the Bonnie's game in the mail yesterday. As usual, they are marked General Admission but they are also marked SRO. I assume it means Standing Room Only but it doesn't actually say that. I'm not even going to offer them to my friends who usually go and take their two grandsons. I have no idea if they would have to stand but I'm not gonna make them find out the hard way.

 

[almaman]

3 minutes ago, White Pelican said:

I got four free tix for the Bonnie's game in the mail yesterday. As usual, they are marked General Admission but they are also marked SRO. I assume it means Standing Room Only but it doesn't actually say that. I'm not even going to offer them to my friends who usually go and take their two grandsons. I have no idea if they would have to stand but I'm not gonna make them find out the hard way.

 

where's standing room?

[White Pelican]

No idea. Maybe behind the band and students?

[billiken_roy]

19 minutes ago, White Pelican said:

I got four free tix for the Bonnie's game in the mail yesterday. As usual, they are marked General Admission but they are also marked SRO. I assume it means Standing Room Only but it doesn't actually say that. I'm not even going to offer them to my friends who usually go and take their two grandsons. I have no idea if they would have to stand but I'm not gonna make them find out the hard way.

 

i thought the same thing when i got mine.    i am not offering standing room only tickets to anyone.   nice gesture to get them and i am very appreciative that there is a pre-game reception as well.  

[GMan Alum]

TI though the same thing as well.  I talked to the Billiken ticket office and those freebies are for General Admission, meaning the student section.  If the student section fills up, then those holding the free tickets will be directed to other open seats in the 200 sections.  There is no Standing Room Only at Chaifetz, according to the guy.

[Bills_06]

1 minute ago, GMan Alum said:

TI though the same thing as well.  I talked to the Billiken ticket office and those freebies are for General Admission, meaning the student section.  If the student section fills up, then those holding the free tickets will be directed to other open seats in the 200 sections.  There is no Standing Room Only at Chaifetz, according to the guy.

I got them as well and was wondering why they don't just give out seats in the 200 section then?  I get during winter break because students aren't there but now they should try to fill that up with students and then allow the extra people to have actual seats in the 200s.  I know I got actual seats there in previous years.  

[White Pelican]

3 minutes ago, Bills_06 said:

I got them as well and was wondering why they don't just give out seats in the 200 section then?  I get during winter break because students aren't there but now they should try to fill that up with students and then allow the extra people to have actual seats in the 200s.  I know I got actual seats there in previous years.  

Yeah, in the past I've gotten them with actual seat and section numbers too but lately they've been GA and usually for the student section. (When my friends use them, I can usually squeeze them in around me in my section.)  But these are the first ones I've ever got that had 'SRO' on them. SRO almost universally means Standing Room Only. So I'm confused as to why SLU would use that term but then say there is no standing room in the arena.

[almaman]

S tudents R arely O ccupy?