The Wiz Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 SLU.........................................................................................................NCAT D-..............................................................Overall grade........................F- ( 5th worst in the nation) ...................................................................Offense F- ( 6th worst in nation)..............................PPG............................F- (3rd worst in the nation) F- (11th worst in the nation) / D / D-..........Slash.............................F / F / D- D-...............................................................Reb..................................D- D+...............................................................TOs.................................F+ ...................................................................Defense C+...............................................................PPG..................................D+ C- / C-..........................................................Slash................................D+ / F+ D...................................................................Reb...................................B- F+...............................................................Opp TOs.............................F- ( 6th worst in the nation) With this thread I am trying a new format.....put the stat grades upfront Let me say this to start because it bears repeating re the GM game ....great game...great effort I can't remember the last time I had the Bills as a favorite...not to mention a heavy favorite. And how about this for an unbelievable statement....This is a trap game... A D- team with a trap game How is this possible? Well besides NCAT being one of the 5 worst teams in D-1....They also play in the MEAC.(F- )..the worst conference. There are 6 F- teams in MEAC plus there is only 1 team above F+ in the 13 team league...NC Central ( C ) ...btw did I mention that NCAT is the only team in D-1 without a D-1 win (no Greensboro doesn't count)...Quite a resume of bad.. NCAT leaders are Hunt..., who leads the team in scoring ...and McGowens who leads the team in FG%, Reb , Steals and is 2nd in scoring.. As you can see we are about the same as them on offense (though better at 3's and TOs ) but we are the better team on D. The only really bright spot for NCAT is they are pretty good at Def Reb.. Official line on Zeke is... he is questionable which means game day decision. We need to have 10 TOs and a positive differential in TOs of 4-5. Estimated final score....64-51 What we need to do to win....No be overconfident...sounds weird to say. A win on Sat will give us a winning 4-3 record over 3 weeks...another strange word for this season ...winning Go Bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MusicCityBilliken Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 I was just looking at where the MEAC stood in the RPI standings and noticed our old conference, the CUSA. WOW are they bad. 7 out of 14 teams have RPIs greater then 300. We stand currently last in the A10 at 229. Next is Duquesne at 221 and Fordham close behind at 210.Good chance of catching those 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierBilliken Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, tarheelbilliken said: I was just looking at where the MEAC stood in the RPI standings and noticed our old conference, the CUSA. WOW are they bad. 7 out of 14 teams have RPIs greater then 300. We stand currently last in the A10 at 229. Next is Duquesne at 221 and Fordham close behind at 210.Good chance of catching those 2. What is most important to every Billiken fan though is the comparison to the MVC. MVC RPI is ranked 11th, Atlantic 10 RPI is 8th. This is good. Unfortunately, everyone in the MVC is ranked higher than us, except for Drake at 272. Not so good. Fortunately, we are playing much better and this should improve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 20 minutes ago, tarheelbilliken said: I was just looking at where the MEAC stood in the RPI standings and noticed our old conference, the CUSA. WOW are they bad. 7 out of 14 teams have RPIs greater then 300. We stand currently last in the A10 at 229. Next is Duquesne at 221 and Fordham close behind at 210.Good chance of catching those 2. That's a far cry from the original C-USA. Most of the teams have dispersed to other conferences, and only UAB and Southern Miss remain, though Charlotte went back to them. Other than those three, the conference has filled in with a bunch of lower mid-major-caliber programs. To find the former C-USA teams from the merger of the Great Midwest and Metro, one must look at the ACC, Big East, American, and Atlantic 10 (besides the aforementioned three). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shempie Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Wiz, thank you as always. Looking ahead, is it possible we will be favored next Saturday at home vs. Duquesne? That looks like a chance to get another league win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 4, 2017 Author Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 hour ago, shempie said: Wiz, thank you as always. Looking ahead, is it possible we will be favored next Saturday at home vs. Duquesne? That looks like a chance to get another league win. Unlikely we will be favored next Sat. but it will be a close game...which means we have a good chance to win. The reason we won't be favored is our grade is D-. Duq is a C- team.. The problem is not much of a chance to make up ground between now and next Sat. . We play NCAT tomorrow with no chance to improve....If we beat them big ..no gain because we were supposed to beat them big...if we win by less than 13 or lose ...we lose some ground. Same with Duq who plays Day (A- ) if they lose they will not lose any ground as that game will be a Day blow out. If Duq manages to finish close or win...they gain ground and again no chance for us to be favored.. After tomorrow we play St. B at Bonnie-ville...if we beat them big we could pick up some ground but it is unlikely we will beat them big on the road. Duq is off after tomorrow till our game with them.. Remember this, we just swept a team (GM....C+ ) and beat another (UMass...B- ) who are both much better than Duq. At the beginning of the conference play this year I said our best chance for a win the rest of the season was NCAT and our best chance for a conference win was next Sat against Duq. The practice today had a different look and feel about it than the preseason practices...better energy, better spirit , smoother, , less mistakes, more confidence. And the numbers too have started to change especially after New Year's Day Don't know what happened after the holiday but the numbers have started trending up.. If we play like we did on Wed against GM...we beat Duq next Sat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Thank you Wiz. One point, the numbers and the stats would not have predicted the last win against George Mason, nor could they have predicted the surge of energy provided by the team in the last 3 minutes or so of the second over time that won the game. There is always a human factor in play and that makes the game a lot more interesting. Can it happen, yes it can; will it happen? this will not be known until we play the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 4, 2017 Author Share Posted February 4, 2017 53 minutes ago, Old guy said: Thank you Wiz. One point, the numbers and the stats would not have predicted the last win against George Mason, nor could they have predicted the surge of energy provided by the team in the last 3 minutes or so of the second over time that won the game. There is always a human factor in play and that makes the game a lot more interesting. Can it happen, yes it can; will it happen? this will not be known until we play the game. " It is very certain that, when it is not in our power to determine what is true, we ought to follow what is most probable." ...................................Descartes......1637 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Wiz, I'm not asking you to run the numbers, but would your grades be different for the Bills with only conference games considered? Yes, we are only 3-7 in the last 10, but our trend is up is currently point up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 4, 2017 Author Share Posted February 4, 2017 33 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: Wiz, I'm not asking you to run the numbers, but would your grades be different for the Bills with only conference games considered? Yes, we are only 3-7 in the last 10, but our trend is up is currently point up. Well the simple answer is yes the Bill's grade would be better using only conference games. The longer answer is that it would be less valid...small sample size. I like to have at least 8 games to make the forecasts. That is not an ideal number...that is the minimum number. We are trending up in some areas in recent weeks...primarily TO' , TO spreads, FT% and 3 pt shooting. Defense has gotten better too... But overall we are still one of the worst offensive teams in the country. As bad as NCAT is ...we are right there with them on offense. The difference is we have a better defense. Since the start of conference play we have moved up 1 notch.....F+ to D-. The computer considers 1 notch in either direction a normal move once conference play begins. A move to D or higher and staying there for the rest of the season would be unusual and show the trend changing in a meaningful way. FWIW my system does carry extra weight for more recent games. At this point , though, the computer doesn't see us as trending up ...just a normal variation that many teams go through as the season goes on.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Good stuff. Thanks Wiz. For teams like Indiana, Creighton, and Xavier whom each lost a key player for the year to an ACL injury, their recent trends should hold more weight than others. A computer uses raw data, and key injuries can be an item that doesn't conveniently fit into a formula. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Yes and no HoosierPal, anything that can be numerically classified can be fitted into a formula. Injuries certainly can be classified and fitted into a numerical format. The problem here is that in order to do so you need a lot of information that cannot be obtained without a signed released from the injured party. So you cannot fit injuries into a numerical classification format other than by guessing what the extent of the injury is, etc... The guessing option is not a good way to handle probabilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 4, 2017 Author Share Posted February 4, 2017 3 hours ago, HoosierPal said: Good stuff. Thanks Wiz. For teams like Indiana, Creighton, and Xavier whom each lost a key player for the year to an ACL injury, their recent trends should hold more weight than others. A computer uses raw data, and key injuries can be an item that doesn't conveniently fit into a formula. The trending factor in my formula can factor in ...adding or subtracting a player, a team "gelling" or falling apart over time or other trends affecting the team. For example the subtraction of Bishop has been fully realized in the Bills data at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 9 hours ago, The Wiz said: " It is very certain that, when it is not in our power to determine what is true, we ought to follow what is most probable." ...................................Descartes......1637 Loser over rated, he's dead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 A very nice win against a very weak team. We had a nice slash line...53/42/ 71 TOs were good at 11....positive differential of 3 We out rebounded them 34-26...Set a new Fetz assist record of 26. ...10 3 pters...season high....FG% over 50% both halves...1st time this season. All good...this is what we needed to do against a weak team after a draining 2OT win...Take care of business. A few days of much needed rest and then it is off to Bonnie-ville for a tough test. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 hours ago, The Wiz said: A very nice win against a very weak team. We had a nice slash line...53/42/ 71 TOs were good at 11....positive differential of 3 We out rebounded them 34-26...Set a new Fetz assist record of 26. ...10 3 pters...season high....FG% over 50% both halves...1st time this season. All good...this is what we needed to do against a weak team after a draining 2OT win...Take care of business. A few days of much needed rest and then it is off to Bonnie-ville for a tough test. A&T is absolutely horrendous and played 0 defense. Roby put up wide-open three after wide-open three, often with no A&T players within 8 feet of him. It was real easy to set 3pt shooting records against that crew. I am mostly excited about Crawford's resurgence --- finally recovering from the injury? Well said about taking care of business. I think we will get another test of if this new improved Billiken Bunch are the real deal on Wednesday. I think they started to really show it by keeping a respectable distance vs GW and beating Mason twice. We do own Mason as a matter of course though, let's see if the Bills can keep it competitive vs the Bonnies. The people who said Ford doesn't get as much as Crews got out of these guys can suck eggs. Ford > Crews in EVERY aspect. Crews was terrible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBFan Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 7 hours ago, Soderball said: A&T is absolutely horrendous and played 0 defense. Roby put up wide-open three after wide-open three, often with no A&T players within 8 feet of him. It was real easy to set 3pt shooting records against that crew. I am mostly excited about Crawford's resurgence --- finally recovering from the injury? Well said about taking care of business. I think we will get another test of if this new improved Billiken Bunch are the real deal on Wednesday. I think they started to really show it by keeping a respectable distance vs GW and beating Mason twice. We do own Mason as a matter of course though, let's see if the Bills can keep it competitive vs the Bonnies. The people who said Ford doesn't get as much as Crews got out of these guys can suck eggs. Ford > Crews in EVERY aspect. Crews was terrible. Ford x10 > Crews Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Sagarin has added an additional formula to his rankings this season called recent. It takes into larger account a teams more recent performance. While that still has the Dukes as the better team, home court advantage would presently make Saturday's game a pickem contest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Hey, NC A&T wins game 2 tonight defeating some powerhouse named Allen. Yes, Some guy named Allen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, HoosierPal said: Hey, NC A&T wins game 2 tonight defeating some powerhouse named Allen. Yes, Some guy named Allen. They still have no D-1 wins and still hold the distinction of being the only winless D-1 team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 That probably means that they are playing at D2 level in D1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 13 hours ago, The Wiz said: They still have no D-1 wins and still hold the distinction of being the only winless D-1 team. I got curious and looked up Allen University. They are from Columbia SC and play in the NAIA. Their record is now 10-15. Good for the Aggies! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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