BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 No, I will be at the Bills game like all good Bills fans should be...Vegas on NYEve is amateur night outNye, college football playoffs, NFL playoffs...great 5 days in sin city. You're an amateur apparently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Nye, college football playoffs, NFL playoffs...great 5 days in sin city. You're an amateur apparently. Amateur?? Hmm....I guess this means I will have to turn in my Noir card. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Vegas normally comes pretty close to Sagarin when we get to this point in the season. Sagarin says it should almost be 11.5. Vegas tends to give the Bills a point or two more for home court than Sagarin's standard home court. It will will be around 9 or 10. Unless there is an injury or something else I don't know about at this time. Sagarin is not a good predictor of the real Vegas lines. Sometimes it is in the general ballpark, but here it is 6 points, > 100% off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Well it seems like forever since I started this thread. Since then the Bills have fallen back to F+ (from D- ) The spread has actually widened from my original prediction (a week ago). Ir now stands at 13. While I don't usually agree much with Backhand, he may have himself a deal this time. This is one of the widest spread differences between Vegas and myself (8 points)....so much for those who say I follow Vegas....lol Bottomline......Let's play some Bball Go Bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It looks like SLU is now +4. http://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/current-odds-ncaab According to CBSsports.com it opened at SLU +2.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The fix is in if it's +4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 The fix is in if it's +4. Lol...now the spread between me and the oddsmakers is 9....Hmm...what would happen if one of the hottest shooting teams suddenly hit a cold spell? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 ..Vegas on NYEve is amateur night out Wiz know what's up. It's for dudes that like to wear tight, shiny, shirts most likely purchased at Structure. Don't try to hide behind the sports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Two books now have the Billis +3.5. This line really makes no sense. What am I missing here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 You are missing nothing brianstl, odds are for gamblers, they do not mean a team will win or by how many points. They do mean the probability for Vandy to win this game is higher than the probability for SLU to win it. The actual numerical odds are statistically and experience based, a very highly educated guess if you may. By the way the market is similar in the way it is played. We will see soon, won't we. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMouthBilliken Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 How's the crowd? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMouthBilliken Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 No GDT? No board action minutes to tip? What gives? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Let's see ...on post #29 I revised this spread upward and had Vandy by 13...wasn't there someone here who said the Wiz was "on tilt"...those Vegas 3-5 pt people better use a new source for bball forecasting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 How's the crowd? Dead as usual. There was some excitement down the stretch when we cut the lead to 8, but then everyone sat down again after Vandy put up an easy layup. Not even half the fans actually stood up when we were down by 8.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Damn wiz coulda doubled the size of his farm in Vegas today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 First , in regards to the Vermont game....nice game, nice win....for a deeper analysis...see the thread..."Bills are trending" Next, we are out of the hole ...we are now D- by the skin of our teeth. It is so close that we will fluctuate back and forth between F+ and D- in the next week based on what the teams around us do. But for now it is progress ...we are trending up ...we are better than we were at the beginning of the season. On the other end of the spectrum we are looking at another team that is vacillating....Vandy ( A- ) by the skin of their teeth also. And like us , it is so close they will be moving back and forth between A- & B+ during the coming week based on the other teams around them. So as you can see by the headline, this won't be easy. Vandy beat a D- team (Penn) last night by 29 points. Of course, there are some differences in our game and the Penn game. First they played at Vandy....the Fetz won't be kind to Vandy. Second, even though Penn and the Bills are both D- ....Penn is playing near maximum capacity ...the Bills are trending up...more potential left...Third . we are a better team defensively ..Last night was Vandys 4th 79pts or more game...that won't happen against the Bills. Finally Vandy had a great game even by Vandy standards ...shooting 57% ...unlikely to do that against the Bills. But as I pointed out , it won't be easy. Vandy averages 51.1% from the field ....7th in the nation and 39.3% from 3 (33rd in nation). This game will be important to Vandy as I have them as a bubble team at this point of the season. A loss to the Bills will be a blackmark against them come tournament time and could send them to the NIT. But Vandy is no Wichita St. Here is what we need to do to win.... We always win when.... The Opp has 11 or fewer assists....7-0 Our FG% is 42.6%.....5-0 we make 23 or more FG.....4-0 We usually win when....... AM has 4 or more FGM....6-1.....86% AY has 10 pts or more......6-1....86% We have 12 or fewer TO's....5-1...83% Vandy weakness....Ball handling ...vulnerable to steals and TO's And again the 3 ker words to winning....defense, defense , defense...not only to cool off their shooting but to take the ball away Vandy is a lot like Vermont....they both start with V...they both can shoot well...and they are weak on ball handling....they are similar but Vandy is better. This will be our biggest win of the season if we can pull it off... No margin for error....We can do it if we bring our A game Time for a post game analysis.... Let's check the OP..... Vandy by 13 (revised on post #29 of this thread) actual ...by 15...pass Vandy 7th in the nation in shooting (51.1%)....actual 54.3%........pass ..."......33rd in 3pt shooting (39.3%)................actual..54.5%........pass Hold Vandy to 11 assists....actual 18............................................fail Bills shoot 42.6%............actual 36.4%..........................................fail Bills FGM 23....actual 20..............................................................fail McBroom 4 FGM...actual 5...........................................................pass Ash score 10pts...actual 15pts......................................................pass Bills 12 or fewer TOs....actual 8....................................................pass and finally...defense, defense, defense.........................................fail Not on the list but unacceptable ...FTs 50% & 3pt 29.2%.............fail Btw....nice size crowd considering middle of the week day game...holiday etc....8194 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Damn wiz coulda doubled the size of his farm in Vegas today. Yes this was an easy one.....one of the larger spread variables between me and Vegas...some on this board took advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Pelican Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yes this was an easy one.....one of the larger spread variables between me and Vegas...some on this board took advantage. I can verify this claim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Still and regardless, if they could only have shoot FTs they might have won this one. They could not get their FTs to go in to save their souls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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