Player Production - Ash Yacoubou

[NH]

All I'll say is that some of you guys are unabashed homers. Not that there's anything wrong with that as Seinfeld used to say. But you want to feel comfortable in extrapolating the things you are, go for it. Again, embrace the experience of watching these kids grow.

I, for one, don't think its a good idea to place expectations of any sort on any of these guys. At least anybody with such a lack of output documentation as we see now. Dwayne, Jordair, Mike, Rob .. sure. The others? No fuoking way. For example, John Manning's scoring average, in games he's played, has gone from 0.5 to 1.7 to 2.5 in his first three years. That's means if the average continues, we can expect a whopping 3.5 ppg this coming year. Ludicrous? Sure. Maybe. Grandy went from 0.2 to 3.1 to 3.8, meaning an expectation of 5.6 ppg might be reasonable. Ludicrous as well? I'm not so sure on this one but I'll stay with reasonable. I like the extrapolation on folks playing 40 minutes a game. That's relevant but is it real? No one plays 40 minutes a game but in the case of either Manning or Glaze, Manning went from 3.9 to 5.7 to 11.9 mpg over this same time; Glaze from 3.2 to 12.0 to 12.9. The only thing I'll say here is ask the question what makes any of us think either can be expected to stay in a game much longer? The question being relevant to "foul trouble."

As for McBroom, how about looking at matchups. McBroom is no longer the unknown. He's the only known. He came out early conference schedule blazing. And when they teams got to know him and what he did, they adjusted and he went down (despite Nick saying it's because of a girlfriend). Another issue I have is that he's 5'9" and 165# and he's short and has a low shot release. And everybody knows. And without having Jett or Loe or McCall on the court for balance ..... just saying, be conservative in your expectations.

I truly hope Lancona and Crawford meet the expectations. Lots of guys never met mine. Want a history lesson? I didn't think so.

Embrace the experience.

Taj I agree with you that some people are a little overly optimistic with how they project player improvement. That said, your analysis of the numbers is almost completely irrelevant. Sure, Glaze and Mannings numbers haven't improved much in there three years. But our team is going to score between 60 and 70 a game and someone has to get those points. Expecting 8-10 out of Manning is perfectly reasonable because someone is going to have to score. It's not about projecting Manning to improve drastically as much as it is a realization of how many minutes and shots he will get.

[kshoe]

Taj I agree with you that some people are a little overly optimistic with how they project player improvement. That said, your analysis of the numbers is almost completely irrelevant. Sure, Glaze and Mannings numbers haven't improved much in there three years. But our team is going to score between 60 and 70 a game and someone has to get those points. Expecting 8-10 out of Manning is perfectly reasonable because someone is going to have to score. It's not about projecting Manning to improve drastically as much as it is a realization of how many minutes and shots he will get.

Exactly. Not that we should be as bad Toledo 5 years ago but Jake Barnett averaged 12.9 ppg his freshman year there. He only averaged 1.2, 3.6 and 4.7 at SLU because he played many fewer minutes and took fewer shots.

The facts are, someone will likely score a bunch of points for us next year. Those that play the most minutes will be the most likely candidates so its not hard at all to see a Manning dramatically increase his scoring, as long he doesn't get into foul trouble every game.

[Basketbill]

The Reggie Bryant comparison to Ash is a bit off, Reggie was smaller thinner but was an incredible shooter. Ash is more athletic, he and Reggie Agbeko will be reliable alley oop targets. It ought to be fun!!

[MusicCityBilliken]

As we look towards next season we have to speculate on how good of a team we will have. I was thinking about Ash and how much he will contribute next year. I like to look at player production based on the actual production from when that player played. Here are Ash's stats from last year at Villanova based on 40 minutes of play versus some of the Billikens this year and their stats based on 40 minutes of play.

2012 - 2013 (40 minutes)

Ash – 9.8 points, 2.9 Turnovers, 0.1 Block, 1.1 Steals, 1.8 Assists, 8.7 Rebounds, 3P% .396, 2P% .462, FT .500

2013 - 2014 (40 minutes)

Crawford – 10.7 points, TO 2.4, Block 0.0, Steals .9, Assists 2.2, RB 3.1, 3P% . 429, 2P% - .364, FT% .714

Jett – 17.6 points, TO 3.6, Block 0.7, Steals 1.9, Assists 6.1, Rebound 5.1, 3P% .189, 2P% .526, FT .600

McBroom – 13.6 points, TO 2.5, Block 0.1, Steals 1.3, Assists, 3.1, RB 3.6, 3P% .349, 2P% .357, FT .903

McCall – 13.1 points, TO 1.7, Block 0.1, Steals 1.8, Assists 3.1, RB 5.1, 3P% .321, 2P% .471, FT .756

Barnett – 7.8 points, TO 1.7, Block 0.4, STL 1.4, AST 1.8, RB 4.7, 3P% .312, 2P% .407, FT .583

Ash was a sophomore last year, so if we compare his sophomore stats to those of Jett, McCall, and McBroom and their sophomore seasons you get:

Sophomore Seasons (40 minutes)

Ash – 9.8 points, 2.9 Turnovers, 0.1 Block, 1.1 Steals, 1.8 Assists, 8.7 Rebounds, 3P% .396, 2P% .462, FT .500

McBroom – 13.6 points, TO 2.5, Block 0.1, Steals 1.3, Assists, 3.1, RB 3.6, 3P% .349, 2P% .357, FT .903

McCall – 12.2 points, TO 2.1, Block 0.1, Steals 2.2, Assists 3.8, RB 3.2, 3P% .348, 2P% .490, FT .755

Jett – 11.7 points, TO 2.4, Block 0.4, Steals 2.1, Assists 3.8, Rebound 5.0, 3P% .333, 2P% .477, FT .625

For whatever reason, I had thought his stats were a little better than this. He averaged 12 minutes a game last season and played in 31 games. He is a big 6'4" guard which is great. He will be a fourth year Junior and will probably see significant time next season.

Is that correct, 8.7 rebounds? For a guard? wow! FT% at .500. Hope Ash is working on that. Also, these stats tell us very little of his defensive skills

[bonwich]

they adjusted and he went down (despite Nick saying it's because of a girlfriend).

Ahh, Taj, I see you remember what I taught you about keeping the reader interested with clever turns of phrase.

[Taj79]

@NH --- thank you, Nate. I can wholeheartedly accept that my numbers are irrelevant. Do we do the same with Tonka's?

I remember a sign on my dad's office wall when I was a kid: "If you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with bullshat. If all else fails, use statistics."

The bottom line here is caution on expectations. For those believing we will score 60 to 70 a game, let's also wait and see.

Embrace the experience. I can't wait to see these new kids grow.

[NH]

The bottom line here is caution on expectations. For those believing we will score 60 to 70 a game, let's also wait and see.

Embrace the experience. I can't wait to see these new kids grow.

Taj,

Come on man now you're just being ridiculous.

Of the 350+ teams in division 1, only TWO scored fewer than 60 a game. If you really think we will be in the bottom TWO teams in scoring in division 1 then your pessimism is beyond help. I hope that isn't the case.

[doowop]

All I'll say is that some of you guys are unabashed homers. Not that there's anything wrong with that as Seinfeld used to say. But you want to feel comfortable in extrapolating the things you are, go for it. Again, embrace the experience of watching these kids grow.

I, for one, don't think its a good idea to place expectations of any sort on any of these guys. At least anybody with such a lack of output documentation as we see now. Dwayne, Jordair, Mike, Rob .. sure. The others? No fuoking way. For example, John Manning's scoring average, in games he's played, has gone from 0.5 to 1.7 to 2.5 in his first three years. That's means if the average continues, we can expect a whopping 3.5 ppg this coming year. Ludicrous? Sure. Maybe. Grandy went from 0.2 to 3.1 to 3.8, meaning an expectation of 5.6 ppg might be reasonable. Ludicrous as well? I'm not so sure on this one but I'll stay with reasonable. I like the extrapolation on folks playing 40 minutes a game. That's relevant but is it real? No one plays 40 minutes a game but in the case of either Manning or Glaze, Manning went from 3.9 to 5.7 to 11.9 mpg over this same time; Glaze from 3.2 to 12.0 to 12.9. The only thing I'll say here is ask the question what makes any of us think either can be expected to stay in a game much longer? The question being relevant to "foul trouble."

As for McBroom, how about looking at matchups. McBroom is no longer the unknown. He's the only known. He came out early conference schedule blazing. And when they teams got to know him and what he did, they adjusted and he went down (despite Nick saying it's because of a girlfriend). Another issue I have is that he's 5'9" and 165# and he's short and has a low shot release. And everybody knows. And without having Jett or Loe or McCall on the court for balance ..... just saying, be conservative in your expectations.

I truly hope Lancona and Crawford meet the expectations. Lots of guys never met mine. Want a history lesson? I didn't think so.

Embrace the experience.

McBroom missed a lot of wide open shots that had nothing to do with teams figuring him out. Did teams figure McCall and Barnett out? They missed wide open shots. McBroom just did not shoot as well in the last part of the season. It seems that most good shooters lose their accuracy when they come here.

All I'll say is that some of you guys are unabashed homers. Not that there's anything wrong with that as Seinfeld used to say. But you want to feel comfortable in extrapolating the things you are, go for it. Again, embrace the experience of watching these kids grow.

I, for one, don't think its a good idea to place expectations of any sort on any of these guys. At least anybody with such a lack of output documentation as we see now. Dwayne, Jordair, Mike, Rob .. sure. The others? No fuoking way. For example, John Manning's scoring average, in games he's played, has gone from 0.5 to 1.7 to 2.5 in his first three years. That's means if the average continues, we can expect a whopping 3.5 ppg this coming year. Ludicrous? Sure. Maybe. Grandy went from 0.2 to 3.1 to 3.8, meaning an expectation of 5.6 ppg might be reasonable. Ludicrous as well? I'm not so sure on this one but I'll stay with reasonable. I like the extrapolation on folks playing 40 minutes a game. That's relevant but is it real? No one plays 40 minutes a game but in the case of either Manning or Glaze, Manning went from 3.9 to 5.7 to 11.9 mpg over this same time; Glaze from 3.2 to 12.0 to 12.9. The only thing I'll say here is ask the question what makes any of us think either can be expected to stay in a game much longer? The question being relevant to "foul trouble."

As for McBroom, how about looking at matchups. McBroom is no longer the unknown. He's the only known. He came out early conference schedule blazing. And when they teams got to know him and what he did, they adjusted and he went down (despite Nick saying it's because of a girlfriend). Another issue I have is that he's 5'9" and 165# and he's short and has a low shot release. And everybody knows. And without having Jett or Loe or McCall on the court for balance ..... just saying, be conservative in your expectations.

I truly hope Lancona and Crawford meet the expectations. Lots of guys never met mine. Want a history lesson? I didn't think so.

Embrace the experience.

[doowop]

McBroom missed a lot of wide open shots that had nothing to do with teams figuring him out. Is that why McCall and Barnett missed so many wide open shots, teams figuring them out? McBroom just did not shoot well in the last part of the season. It seems that most good shooters lose their accuracy when they come here.

[Tonka]

One of the reasons I put up those statistics is because I wanted to give some sort of realistic expectation of Ash. Do my numbers do that? We won't know for sure. Like I said in my post, I actually thought his per 40 minute stats would be better in terms of some of the production. It does appear he will be a good rebounding guard, which will be great. His free throw % is too small of a sample size to do anything with. He only took 8 attempts last year and made four of them. His freshman year he also took 8 free throw attempts and made all of them. So, in his college career he is shooting .750 from the line.

Often on this board, we often make the mistake (myself included) of thinking a player not playing will be a better option than a player getting minutes that is not performing. Kyle Cassity's not performing, people push for Barnett. Loe is struggling, certainly Manning can do better... It's almost as if the unknown player has to be the solution to the under performing player.

We have a ridiculous amount of unknowns next year, so how we will do is uninformed speculation. I tend to always be optimistic going into a season thinking that we will be better than I originally had thought.

I seem to have a lot more questions about next year than I would normally have about a Billiken team.

[Taj79]

@NH --- I'm not saying they will just as I'm not saying they won't. And maybe I am being ridiculous. All I'm recommending is to temper the expectations. Again, I am, extremely excited for this journey to start. I look forward to seeing what all the newbies can do on their own. This includes Lancona, Agbeko, Crawford and Yacoubou just as it does the five or six incoming new guys. The questions I had on this year's freshmen class remain because nothing was decided. They are as virgin as the incoming freshmen are IMHO.

As for what I do know, I have no expectations that Manning, Glaze or McBroom will do anything of signifcant consequence outside their progression to date. If they do, gravy and happy surprise.

As to doowop's question, I don't believe there is a single factor that results in the bottom line of "good shooters lose their accuracy when they come here." In our case this year, I see a lot of fronts merging into the perfect storm that was a 2 and 5 finish: fatigue, injuries, pressure, the opposition, the level of competition, and so on. I always have said zone us. Our only outside shooting consistency was our inconsistency. If you were left the choice between Jake Barnett shooting a buzzer beater three or Jordair Jett finishing with a buzzer beater layup, I am sure I know what Paul Hewitt, John Gianinni and Derek Kellogg would have chosen. Same thing Archie Miller did in Chaifetz. Guys got tired. Nagging little injuries hit JJ and DE. Outside of Loe, the other shooters seemed to be reluctant to shoot. How else do you explain Barnett pump faking a jumper to settle into an airborne drive with no plan for shooting or landing? I think if you go back, Crawford might have finished more of those moves than Jake did. Same with McBroom. Folks knew it was better to force him to shoot off the dribble/drive than camp out for a three. And then when it was needed, and the pressure was ratcheted up, only Loe seemed willing to launch. I forget who did color on the final game but after McCall missed his seventh or eighth three, he noted how McCall had packed it in and would not shoot again. Shooters have to have no conscience; Mike has never been that way. And the schedule compounded that late season slide by having toplay the better teams all in a row at the end.

Embrace the experience, enjoy the journey.

[Bills By 40]

Next year reminds me a lot of the (excuse my language) '10-'11 season. (That hurt my heart to type...)

Lots of inexperience and a lot of leadership invested in some young talent. The biggest difference?

We have seniors. We knew it was coming and were able to plan for it, as opposed to being surprised with the news and having to adjust to missing players in short time. We have a well rounded team and will have a damn good rotation, assuming everybody does what I think they can do. We have momentum on our side, as the last three years we've been one of the best teams in an up-and-coming conference. Why is everybody so down on our program?

-good coaches

-good players

-GREAT fans [myself included ]

-great recruiting as of late

Future looks bright. Have a little faith, guys.

[Bizziken]

It's fun to speculate about next year's team, but as many posters have been saying, we simply don't know what we're gonna get. With an increased role (not just minutes, but active participation) Manning, Glaze, and McBroom COULD have great years. Or they could be picklekissers. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Manning averaged 9 and 6, Glaze 8 and 5, and McBroom 9. Similarly, I wouldn't be surprised if they all have stats identical to this season...since the variance is so high, it's almost impossible to have any expectations

[MusicCityBilliken]

Next year reminds me a lot of the (excuse my language) '10-'11 season. (That hurt my heart to type...)

Lots of inexperience and a lot of leadership invested in some young talent. The biggest difference?

We have seniors. We knew it was coming and were able to plan for it, as opposed to being surprised with the news and having to adjust to missing players in short time. We have a well rounded team and will have a damn good rotation, assuming everybody does what I think they can do. We have momentum on our side, as the last three years we've been one of the best teams in an up-and-coming conference. Why is everybody so down on our program?

-good coaches

-good players

-GREAT fans [myself included ]

-great recruiting as of late

Future looks bright. Have a little faith, guys.

We had 3 wonderful years. Each year (I anticipate this year) a ranking in the AP polls. Never done that before in my 50+ years of following the team.

I think a lot folks are antsy. Next year is the big transition year and will tell us a lot. Was the three years all Rickma's doing with his players and his system? Will we slip back into mediocre for another decade of no-postseason. Can Crews coach and establish his system? He did an outstanding job, but was it his system? Can Crew's recruit? On paper they look strong but don't know till they hit the court. Actually I think he salvaged last year with some strong players and has a good class coming in.

I am optimistic, I think we will do fine.

[moytoy12]

Ash will avg a triple-double the next 2 years.

[Tonka]

Ash will avg a triple-double the next 2 years.

I think you are off on this prediction. I think there will be 3-4 games over the next 2 years where he falls short and only gets a double-double.

[moytoy12]

I think you are off on this prediction. I think there will be 3-4 games over the next 2 years where he falls short and only gets a double-double.

True, and if he only gets 40 points, 17 boards, and 9 assists in a game, then I'll be pissed.

But on average, he'll have a triple double. Might as well start calling him Oscar Yacoubou.

[Bills By 40]

True, and if he only gets 40 points, 17 boards, and 9 assists in a game, then I'll be pissed.

But on average, he'll have a triple double. Might as well start calling him Oscar Yacoubou.

You forgot his 5 bpg. Don't forget the blocks.

[jimbofive]

It's fun to speculate about next year's team, but as many posters have been saying, we simply don't know what we're gonna get. With an increased role (not just minutes, but active participation) Manning, Glaze, and McBroom COULD have great years. Or they could be picklekissers. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Manning averaged 9 and 6, Glaze 8 and 5, and McBroom 9. Similarly, I wouldn't be surprised if they all have stats identical to this season...since the variance is so high, it's almost impossible to have any expectations

Jimmy hat's off to you for using "picklekisser". That is all.

[moytoy12]

You forgot his 5 bpg. Don't forget the blocks.

Good point. Although he won't average it, we can expect at least 15-20 quadruple doubles each of the next 2 seasons.

[JettFlight5]

Good point. Although he won't average it, we can expect at least 15-20 quadruple doubles each of the next 2 seasons.

He'll also coach the team and set up marketing contracts at halftime while playing in the band.

[lelbron]