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The Wiz picks for the A-10 tourney..Rd1&2


The Wiz

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Round 1....

GM by 5 over Ford......GM drives over Ford

Round 2.....

St B by 2 over LaS.....The Bonnies weld a bridge to the Bills

Rich by 4 over Duq....The Spiders cast their web over the Dukes

UMass by 7 1/2 over RI...UMass disposes of the Rams in a Minute, man

I will do the Dayton game on Thur AM.

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I think LaSalle beats the Bonnies based on yesterday's St. Joe's game. I also think Duquesne beats Richmond ---- Kendall Anthony can't carry the Spiders alone. This will be the third meeting of the year between Umass and URI with Umnass winning the first two. Hmmm .... third times a charm? Hopefully, if Mason wins, they can play Dayton tougher than they did in Fairfax.

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I can't see it. Either St. Joe's or Dayton would be snubbed and perhaps both.

Probably both... depends on other results. RE: the A-10, going into this weekend, do you really think U. Mass was # 13 and VCU # 14 (etc.) in the USA (their RPI's)?

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For the A10 to get the max number of teams, VCU and SLU would have to lose their first games and a team not named SLU, VCU, UMass, UD, St Joes, and GW would need to win the tournament. The way the seeding breaks out, the loser of UD/SJU is probably out regardless. So 6 is the max if everything breaks right. 5 is most likely, IMO.

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The dream scenario for the A-10 trying to get as many teams in the tourney would be as follows:

- Dayton beats George Mason in the second round

- St. Joes beats Dayton in quarters (St. joes has no chance for an at-large with a first game loss)

- St. Joes beats SLU in the semis

- On the other side, Richmond beats Duq, VCU, GW and St. Joes in the finals.

That would give Richmond the auto bid. SLU, VCU, GW, UMass are all locks, making 5. St. Joes would be in good shape as their RPI would be in the 30-35 range. Dayton would likely be out with an RPI of around 44, but you never know.

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For the A10 to get the max number of teams, VCU and SLU would have to lose their first games and a team not named SLU, VCU, UMass, UD, St Joes, and GW would need to win the tournament. The way the seeding breaks out, the loser of UD/SJU is probably out regardless. So 6 is the max if everything breaks right. 5 is most likely, IMO.

5 would be better for the A10 because that would most likely put SLU at a 5 seed. If the Bills win the tournament, a 4 or maybe even a 3? Tough call. But if both SLU and VCU loses in their first games they both get screwed by the committee, likely a 6 and 8/9 seed. If they both meet in the championship, SLU>VCU, I'd be confident to see a SLU 3/4 seed and a VCU 5-7 seed. I'd rather have 4/5 teams with better seeding than 6 joe-schmoe teams that get knocked out in the first round...

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The dream scenario for the A-10 trying to get as many teams in the tourney would be as follows:

- Dayton beats George Mason in the second round

- St. Joes beats Dayton in quarters (St. joes has no chance for an at-large with a first game loss)

- St. Joes beats SLU in the semis

- On the other side, Richmond beats Duq, VCU, GW and St. Joes in the finals.

That would give Richmond the auto bid. SLU, VCU, GW, UMass are all locks, making 5. St. Joes would be in good shape as their RPI would be in the 30-35 range. Dayton would likely be out with an RPI of around 44, but you never know.

Would you rather the A10 get a bunch of teams in, or have a couple teams in (4-5) with better seeds?

For me the answer is obvious, the latter; but apparently that's up for grabs...

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-I would love for the A10 to get 5 to match last year given x and Butler left and I agree the A10 has the 4 locks in SLU, VCU, UMass and GW so something would have to happen to those teams to expand to 5

-if we are playing in Dallas I don't care if we don't win the A10 tourney

-I would not like to see the chaos if Wake, DePaul, Illinois, Houston, Washington and Ole Miss or their similarly positioned conference mates all win their tourneys, that would screw some other conferences

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More teams = chance for more money and more recognition of the league.

This.

Plus in a year like the current one when not many CBB teams have seemed to separate from the pack, I'll take my chances that with more teams in the tournament a few may make runs. I don't see much difference between this year's projected 7 and 10 seeds, for instance.

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-I would love for the A10 to get 5 to match last year given x and Butler left and I agree the A10 has the 4 locks in SLU, VCU, UMass and GW so something would have to happen to those teams to expand to 5

-if we are playing in Dallas I don't care if we don't win the A10 tourney

-I would not like to see the chaos if Wake, DePaul, Illinois, Houston, Washington and Ole Miss or their similarly positioned conference mates all win their tourneys, that would screw some other conferences

DePaul?????? What are you smoking?

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Probably both... depends on other results. RE: the A-10, going into this weekend, do you really think U. Mass was # 13 and VCU # 14 (etc.) in the USA (their RPI's)?

Again with the complaining about the RPI. The RPI is pretty bad, but it is an important metric. The committee uses it as one of its tools. I prefer looking through the different metrics (RPI, BPI, Kenpom, Sagarin) because it takes the eye test out of the equation.

For comparison, VCU is ranked 15 by Kenpom. Interesting that is so close to the RPI. But maybe even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

Here's RPI, Kenpom, and Sagarin:

UMass: 13 - 49 - 47

VCU: 14 - 15 - 25

SLU: 23 - 35 - 34

GW: 30 - 40 - 48

St. Joes: 34 - 59 - 57

Dayton: 42 - 51 - 63

So yes, RPI consistently rates A10 teams higher than the computer geeks, but at the same time, all three metrics agree that these are very good teams worthy of consideration in the tourney.

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Again with the complaining about the RPI. The RPI is pretty bad, but it is an important metric. The committee uses it as one of its tools. I prefer looking through the different metrics (RPI, BPI, Kenpom, Sagarin) because it takes the eye test out of the equation.

For comparison, VCU is ranked 15 by Kenpom. Interesting that is so close to the RPI. But maybe even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

Here's RPI, Kenpom, and Sagarin:

UMass: 13 - 49 - 47

VCU: 14 - 15 - 25

SLU: 23 - 35 - 34

GW: 30 - 40 - 48

St. Joes: 34 - 59 - 57

Dayton: 42 - 51 - 63

So yes, RPI consistently rates A10 teams higher than the computer geeks, but at the same time, all three metrics agree that these are very good teams worthy of consideration in the tourney.

Point of information...I think you have Dayton and St J turned around on the Sagarin...I think it should be Dayton 57 ...St. J 63.

Here is what I have....

UMass....,47

VCU.........28

SLU..........38

GW...........49

ST. J.........65

Day............62

I have the 1st 4 in ...St. J and Day as bubbles

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Point of information...I think you have Dayton and St J turned around on the Sagarin...I think it should be Dayton 57 ...St. J 63.

Here is what I have....

UMass....,47

VCU.........28

SLU..........38

GW...........49

ST. J.........65

Day............62

I have the 1st 4 in ...St. J and Day as bubbles

You are correct, sir! St Joes and Dayton were flipped.

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