billiken class of 15 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 But good lord, we start 4-0 and are nationally ranked and our own fans are still predicting us to go .500 the rest of the way, including a loss on Senior Night to a team we've already beaten convincingly on the road. Talk about defeatist... We run the table in conference and continue to roll straight to a national title. Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins decide to transfer to SLU, both saying that theyre willing to learn the system, play tough defense, and stay for the remainder of their collegiate careers and earn a degree from SLU. The NCAA passes a waiver that allows them to be eligible to play next season. Add that to our top 5 recruiting class and we run the table again next season. We get into the Big East. Tatum and a few of his AAU buddies all commit to SLU. We would still find something to complain about... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 No, none of those will be easy games. But yes, I think it's absolutely a stretch to say we'll lose ALL of those games. I would go so far as to say the odds of finishing 10-6 are probably not much better than finishing 16-0. Here are the probabilities per Sagarin's predictor. There is basically a 13% chance of losing 6 or more games from here on. Less than 1% that we win out. Final Record Probability 28-2 0.64% 27-3 5.34% 26-4 14.39% 25-5 24.17% 24-6 26.13% 23-7 17.06% 22-8 8.71% 21-9 2.68% 20-10. 0.78% 19-11. 0.08% 18-12. 0.01% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duff Man Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 We're going to end up somewhere between 12-4 and 14-2 in the A10. We will almost surely lose either @VCU or @UMass. We're going to lose a road game eventually - and those are easily the toughest 2 matchups left on the schedule. We also will probably lose a game to a team that shoots out of their mind from 3 on a given night. We could win both Philly games, but we could also lose both. VCU should not be a problem in our building. 12-4 would still get have our RPI in the mid 20s (per RPI Forecast). We'd safely be in the dance at 24-6 (12-4). 25-5 (13-3) probably wins at least a share of the A10 regular season title, and depending on how the A10 tourney went would probably get us a 6-seed or better (the key is just getting lower than 7 and avoiding the best 8 teams). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlumniFan Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I think VCU is very beatable for us, even though the game at their place is likely to come with them determined not to lose a fourth straight to us. But I still couldn't get too outraged about a loss there, just like I couldn't get too upset about the loss at Xavier last year. But good lord, we start 4-0 and are nationally ranked and our own fans are still predicting us to go .500 the rest of the way, including a loss on Senior Night to a team we've already beaten convincingly on the road. Talk about defeatist... Whoa, whoa, whoa. I don't see anyone predicting anything like what you are saying. I said it is not a stretch that we could easily suffer six losses. That is FAR from a prediction. My hope is we go undefeated the rest of the way. My expectation is we probably lose 2 or 3 games the rest of the way. My fear is that it is definitely possible that we lose to some very good teams down the stretch or even lose some road games against average teams because road games are tough. We can all take turns being silly and talk about not losing a game until after Jayson Tatum graduates, but looking at this rationally is all I am doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills10 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 KenPom gives us a 1.3% chance of going 16-0 in the A10. Only 2 teams have gone 16-0 in the A10 in the last 25 years and neither of them won the A10 tourney. You have to go back to Temple in 1988 for the last time an A10 team ran the table (18-0 regular season, 3 wins in the A10 tourney). This years A10 is very deep. It's extremely unlikely that SLU coasts through it without a loss. The topic shouldn't even be discussed until after the Philly trip. Ken Pom obviously doesn't understand statistics. We either win out or we don't. 50/50 chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclecarl Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Just to cloud the waters a bit more, rpiforecast.com has us finishing at #22 with a projected record of 24-6. (A day or so ago it was 26-4.) Of the two bracketologists I've seen recently--Lunardi at ESPN and Breller(?) at SI--we end up anywhere between a 7- and 9-seed. That being said, I have to add that I don't put too much stock in bracketology even halfway through the season. It still smacks of sportswriters trying to predict Heisman winners after week two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVBilliken Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 SLU almost lost to Rhode Island. I expect 4 to 5 of our road games to be tight. Likely SLU loses a couple of these. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenboy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Certainly you could be correct but my thinking is that you keep your defense as the first priority and we are in every game no matter how we perform offensively. We have a distinct ability to make every team out there play ugly. For that we have the upper hand with strong physical guys at all positions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Here's a prediction ---- we won't run the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billslasttermdropout Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We can all take turns being silly and talk about not losing a game until after Jayson Tatum graduates. Much obliged. Can't wait to get started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 SLU almost lost to Rhode Island. I expect 4 to 5 of our road games to be tight. Likely SLU loses a couple of these.I agree we could lose a few to anyone. Our scoring is a problem, as is the zone. but our schedule is pretty week and I think taking it one game at a time we should win most easily and have no games left where we are a decided underdog. No other loss that happens will be a "good" one especially if we go to Philly still with only 2 losses. And not many wins left that will be great, many that will be good though. I think anymore than 4 total losses entering A-10 finals will be a bit of a letdown. We'd have to really *** up to not make the dance imho. split rest of conference and split in tournament we'd be 24-9 which may still get us in, but not too likely from what we've seen so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I agree we could lose a few to anyone. Our scoring is a problem, as is the zone. but our schedule is pretty week and I think taking it one game at a time we should win most easily and have no games left where we are a decided underdog. No other loss that happens will be a "good" one especially if we go to Philly still with only 2 losses. And not many wins left that will be great, many that will be good though. I think anymore than 4 total losses entering A-10 finals will be a bit of a letdown. We'd have to really *** up to not make the dance imho. split rest of conference and split in tournament we'd be 24-9 which may still get us in, but not too likely from what we've seen so far. The back half of our A-10 schedule isn't a cakewalk by any means. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVBilliken Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 2 games with VCU and 1with Mass are toss-up games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The back half of our A-10 schedule isn't a cakewalk by any means.Indeed very game we've had is against the bottom 1/2 the league! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Indeed very game we've had is against the bottom 1/2 the league! Only if you believe Dayton is going to remain in the bottom half of the standings. I though St. Bonaventure would be an upper division team until they lost at home to George Washington. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just to cloud the waters a bit more, rpiforecast.com has us finishing at #22 with a projected record of 24-6. (A day or so ago it was 26-4.) Of the two bracketologists I've seen recently--Lunardi at ESPN and Breller(?) at SI--we end up anywhere between a 7- and 9-seed. That being said, I have to add that I don't put too much stock in bracketology even halfway through the season. It still smacks of sportswriters trying to predict Heisman winners after week two. I look at the rpi predictor site just about every day and I think they've had us at a predicted record of 24-6 since the Dayton win. Prior to that it was 23-7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NextYearBill Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I look at the rpi predictor site just about every day and I think they've had us at a predicted record of 24-6 since the Dayton win. Prior to that it was 23-7. Dayton was more or less a pick 'em game according to rpiforecast going in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doowop Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Certainly you could be correct but my thinking is that you keep your defense as the first priority and we are in every game no matter how we perform offensively. We have a distinct ability to make every team out there play ugly. For that we have the upper hand with strong physical guys at all positions. What strong, physical players do we have beside Jett and Evans? That is one of our problems. If we run into a team like Oregon was last year, we WILL have problems. A good shooting team with strong rebounders and hard driving guards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVBilliken Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 SLU in at #19 in the AP poll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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