A Little Dose of Reality

[jbizzle09]

Obviously, after losing tonight, I figured we would get the normal amount of 'Chicken Little' posts stating that change was needed and that if our course didn't shift, we would not be in the NCAA tournament. As we are now 16 games into the season, I thought I would take a look at where we were last season and see how we compare. Here is what I found:

2011-12 (1st 16 games ( only D-I))

12- 4 record

Top 100 Wins - 1 (UW)

Road/Neutral Wins - 4 (SIU, BC, OK, Nova)

Top 100 Opponents - 4 (UW, UNM, Dayton, Temple)

2012-13 (1st 16 games)

12-4 record

Top 100 Wins - 3 (T A+M, UNM, UMass)

Road/Neutral Wins - 1 (T A+M)

Top 100 Opponents - 7 (T A+M, UNM, UW, UMass, Kansas, Santa Clara, Temple)

The fact is, we have a better SOS than we had last season through 16 games. Last year, the wins against 'Nova and Oklahoma seemed a lot better when they happened than they ended up being. In the end, we ended up sweating it out due to our lack of Top 100 opponents, We needed the strength of our conference schedule, along with our computer numbers, to get us an at-large bid.

However, this season, we might not need to worry about it quite as much. We already have 7 Top 100 opponents, with many more to come due to how strong the A-10 is. Also, Savannah St. (currently #114) and Valpo (currently #104) might actually turn into Top 100 wins before the season is done. My main point with this post and thread is to show that we are pretty much on the same pace as we were last season, if not ahead. Yes, our head coach died, our best player broke his foot, yet we persevered. We continued. And we won games...just like we did last season. Let's get a grip. This is a GOOD team. This is a TOURNAMENT team. Let's try to recognize it and not get in a tizzy when the occasional loss occurs.

[Littlebill]

+100000000

[JettFlight5]

The Billikens are still a very good basketball team.

That's why we get ticked off.

At least it's better that we're ticked off about a good team than a bad one.

[Pistol]

I'm tired of your FACTS, BizzleBoy.

[Taj79]

There is no need for a "sky is falling" crescendo to build. Last night's game was indeed winnable. Temple is a one-man show in Khalid Wyatt. He went off for 24, 8 above his average. W/o him on the floor, Temple was pitiful. Randall has lost all confidence. Hollis-Jefferson is a role player. Cummings isn't even a complimentary two guard (he wasn't the point, Wyatt was). Their bench is abysmal with Martin, DiLeo and Decosey. If the new BE was the old BE, they are likely to be cannon fodder ala Depaul for quite a few years. The problem was, once again, we let a middling 6'6" to 6'9" frontline player go off in Anthony Lee scoring 20. Plus, we lost it in our free throws, and our shooting. They are a very good defensive team and as an in-donference team they knew exactly who we are and what to take away while forcing us to the interior game where Dwayne is still rushing, Cody is nubile, and Rob and Cody are not strong (although Rob's back-to-back games have been huge).

Our guards were collectively 4-for-23. Welcome to a typical night on the road in conference. YET ---- it was a two-possession game with two to play. We will be fine. I thought we could win provided we didn't have a Lee/Randall/Jefferson coming out performance and we made shots while playing stellar defense. I heard Crews say in the first 15 minutes that "one guy is doing all the scoring" and that was Wyatt. After that, we got tough on Wyatt but it seemed to require a second defender and Lee was swooping to the glass. Plus, we make a few of those free throws and the pressure stayed up on Temple's inferior supporting cast, who knows. Lee/Wyatt were 15-for-24 combined. The rest were 8-for-24.

In the first half, Temple was called for two fouls. TWO!!! That seems freaking impossible to me. We were 1-0f-2 from the line. So we thengo 9 of 15 in the second half. Those six points made make the last few minutes of that game crucial. Now...... maybe Wyatt does take over and the result is the same. But we just weren't with it last night and that means no road win. But not everybody is Temple.

[Taj79]

Also spoke to Rammer and Earl. Asked Rammer if he's moving and to where. He said "not so fast" so more to follow. Also told them I haven't missed a game yet this year and get themoff the internet. They were surprised yet ecstatic. They like to know we are out here .... wherever here is.

Funny .... only Meg was here from SLU. No May. No Biondi. No nobody. Hmmmmmm.

[slu72]

Wyatt killed us last year in the Fetz as well. I'm sick of the guy. He had a couple of prayer 3s that were like stakes in the heart. From my easy chair, our misses on wide open 3's killed us last night more than anything else. One of them could have tied the game in the late going. I'm not gonna put it on FT's as they were just as bad from the line.

[Taj79]

I disagree larry72. Screw them, we make ours and it's nip-and-tuck down the stretch. The pressure is racheted up and w/o Wyatt, they are nothing. Plus Lee closed with four fouls. One freaking whistle on him in the first half and he's gone. There were at least five times I recall where, as Rammer says, "their prayers are answered."

I think this is another situation where, who knows, with a HOFer on the bench, he pulls the right strings and we advance. Not blaming Crews, just saying it's another example of how one can't measure intangibles and Rick, love him or hate him, was one hellova master there.

[kwyjibo]

One thing you forgot to add--last year's team then finished 11-2 in the regular season. SLU does that and they will be in an even better position than last year (I would say that would make us 6 or 7 seed).

However, the A-10 has a wider distribution of talent this year. 11-2 from here out will be much tougher. Luckily, 9-4 gets us a 11 seed while 10-3 gets SLU a 9-10 seed. (Seeds will be impacted by conference tournament play as well). I have seen plenty to make me optimistic and this is good team but that is not the whole story.

[slu72]

Taj Mahal '79, didn't mean to imply they were not important, just that since Temple and us were throwing up equal amounts of clankers, we still could have pulled it out if we could hit a few more 3s. CE had 3 good looks, KM a couple, MM 3 or 4, JB had 1. I don't have our 3 point stat in front of me, but I think it was 4 for 16 or something similar. That's 25%. Not good, and I'm hoping, expecting actually, CE and KM to bust out soon.

[waldo027]

URI - W

@Duquesne - W

@St Bona - L

Butler - W

Dayton - W

@Fordham - W

@Richmond - L

Charlotte - W

VCU - W

@Butler - L

SJU - W

@GW - W

@Xavier - L

La Salle - W

Do this, then win 1 game in the conference tourney, and I think we're a lock. Despite the fact that our best road win would be GW.

[slu72]

C'mon, Waldo, we're not losing to ST. Bs this year. We've beaten X at Cintas before. I'm not sure about Richmond, but I think that should be a W as well.

[ACE]

URI - W

@Duquesne - W

@St Bona - L

Butler - W

Dayton - W

@Fordham - W

@Richmond - L

Charlotte - W

VCU - W

@Butler - L

SJU - W

@GW - W

@Xavier - L

La Salle - W

Do this, then win 1 game in the conference tourney, and I think we're a lock. Despite the fact that our best road win would be GW.

The key is to win the rest of our home games. There will always be a game or two on the road where we lose to an inferior opponent. I think we have a chance to rattle off 9 straight wins before we play at Butler. It won't be easy, of course, but I think it possible since our tougher game are at home and weaker ones are on the road.

[waldo027]

C'mon, Waldo, we're not losing to ST. Bs this year. We've beaten X at Cintas before. I'm not sure about Richmond, but I think that should be a W as well.

We should win those games, yes. But I threw in a couple random road losses to lesser teams. We could also easily lose at home to Butler or VCU.

[Box and Won]

C'mon, Waldo, we're not losing to ST. Bs this year.

Maybe not, but don't underestimate those jagoffs in their own building.

[JettFlight5]

C'mon, Waldo, we're not losing to ST. Bs this year.

Maybe not, but don't underestimate those jagoffs in their own building.

If anything, they can beat SLU in the welding competition.

[MB73]

C'mon, Waldo, we're not losing to ST. Bs this year.

Maybe not, but don't underestimate those jagoffs in their own building.

If anything, they can beat SLU in the welding competition.

Do not make fun. We need welders.

People that make things, fix things, help people.

Welders welded together the whole goddam Labadie boiler plant that provkides your electricity from Ameren. We need fewer bankers, middlemen like that... wtf do you do?

I bet you will wish you had a skill in a few yrs... like welding... when computers eliminate the need for your job.

[Cowboy]

-only appropriate for MB to post in a thread with the title 'A Little Dose of Reality'

[moytoy12]

-only appropriate for MB to post in a thread with the title 'A Little Dose of Reality'

+1

[MB73]

-only appropriate for MB to post in a thread with the title 'A Little Dose of Reality'

Yes, I get it, Bania.

Well the initital post is like, "no sh*t". Like it was some big revelation.

Yep, we are about the same as last yr, IMO a bit behind, but we need to finish strong and get into the dance. Road wins the key.

Who would have thought?

[The Dude]

So how many teams make it from the A10? Three? Four?

[Duff Man]

URI - W

@Duquesne - W

@St Bona - L

Butler - W

Dayton - W

@Fordham - W

@Richmond - L

Charlotte - W

VCU - W

@Butler - L

SJU - W

@GW - W

@Xavier - L

La Salle - W

Do this, then win 1 game in the conference tourney, and I think we're a lock. Despite the fact that our best road win would be GW.

No team is a lock for the dance if their only road wins all season are @Duq, @For, and @GW. Honestly, I can't understand how anyone would project SLU to lose all 3 games at Bonnies/Richmind/Xavier and then turn around and beat VCU at Chaifetz. That VCU game and then @Butler are the 2 toughest remaining matchups.

11-5 - provided it's a top 4 finish - plus a win against the 5 or 6 seed to advance to the A10 semis should be enough - but that's cutting it close. If 3 or 4 teams finish 11-5 and SLU is forced to play an extra game before heading to Brooklyn, at a minimum they need to win that A10 quarterfinal showdown against a team that's seeded higher than them. This is not a desirable scenario. Given how deep the conference is, they do not want to head to Brooklyn with 'work to do'.

Butler and VCU are making the dance barring a disastrous turn of events. Temple is looking good. SLU needs to stay a cut above the mess of teams that finish 5-9 in the standings. That means beating those '2nd tier' teams head to head and avoiding road losses to bottom half teams.

SLU has always stuggled in Olean, but this will be by far the best and most experienced Bills team that's made the trip facing the worst Bonnies team they've had in years. They have got to win that game. Richmond worries me, but again SLU is significantly better and they are significantly worse than the last time we made the trip.

13-3 or 12-4, with a Butler split, holding serve at home against the fringe NCAA contenders (Dayton, St Joes, La Salle, Charlotte?), and "quality losses" to VCU and/or @Xavier would put us in the field, no doubt.

[Duff Man]

So how many teams make it from the A10? Three? Four?

I think there's a scenario for 5 at-large bids plus a 6th if a dark horse runs the table in Brooklyn. La Salle, UMass, St Joes, Charlotte, even Xavier all could still play themselves into an at-large bid without necessarily dragging down Butler/VCU/Temple/SLU.

More than likely though, those 2nd tier teams will beat up on each other, all finish with 1 or 2 too many blemishes and end up on the outside looking in. That's why it's so critical for SLU to stay out of that bunch.

[Taj79]

@duff man -- sorry. No way until hell freezes over that the A10 gets six bids. EVER. Five is pushing it as well. The only way you get five is if the expected rank and file teams win their conferences with no upsets and some of the supposed high-major, BCS conferences are down. Way down. For example, the ACC is a mess. Only teams of high class note seem to be Duke and NC State. Maryland was held to 14 points at half in Miami Sunday night. Florida State started out ranked. UNC is as blue as blue blood gets. Elsewhere, Texas A&M crushed Kentucky at Rupp. We crushed Texas A&M. What they did to UK will matter more latere there then our assciation to what we did to TX A&M. That's the way it goes.

Of your list of five A10 suspects, only Xavier has a chance if you ask me and that's only because of their recent bloodlines. And if any of the others are in the regular season running, then some of the so-called top four will most certainly be dragged down. I think four is the A10 limit --- just my opinion. Yaeh, yeah, we got ofur last year but one (STB) was due to the autobid. Adding Butler and VCU means six but I just can't see the simpl emath of four plus two equals six happening.

[slu72]

Clarke of Butler is going to miss two games. He'll be back when they come to SLU. That W just got a whole lot harder. But agree we've got to hold serve on our home turf. Yes, we could get bit by a St. B or Richmond on the road. But I think these guys know how important every conference game is. The two most important keys right now are seeing KM get back to his old self assured self and CE to break out of his 3 pt slump. Right now, JJ and RL are carrying this team.