The Wiz Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Spending some time in Vegas this weekend and thought I would give an update of what the oddsmakers at the Sports Book are thinking. At this point in time there is not much money flowing into bet on CBB. So it is "the experts" trying to handicap the teams. While things will change between now and November it is interesting to see what the thinking is at this point. In the A-10 ...Top 3 ...The Bills, StJ and X The Bills will be Dancing again with an even chance to win the first game. (so a possible 8 or 9 seed again) Other interesting tidbits.... The Final Four will be Ind...Lville ....Ky....and one of these 3 teams.....Mich St...Mich...Kan Upcoming A-10 members....VCU is ranked higher than us ...Butler even with us Other familar faces....Memphis...rated ahead of us....New Mexico behind us...Wash .behind us ...Temple and Dayton ...well behind us And finally for those looking for a little betting action....Bills 80-1 to win National Championship. Go Bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Spending some time in Vegas this weekend and thought I would give an update of what the oddsmakers at the Sports Book are thinking. At this point in time there is not much money flowing into bet on CBB. So it is "the experts" trying to handicap the teams. While things will change between now and November it is interesting to see what the thinking is at this point. In the A-10 ...Top 3 ...The Bills, StJ and X The Bills will be Dancing again with an even chance to win the first game. (so a possible 8 or 9 seed again) Other interesting tidbits.... The Final Four will be Ind...Lville ....Ky....and one of these 3 teams.....Mich St...Mich...Kan Upcoming A-10 members....VCU is ranked higher than us ...Butler even with us Other familar faces....Memphis...rated ahead of us....New Mexico behind us...Wash .behind us ...Temple and Dayton ...well behind us And finally for those looking for a little betting action....Bills 80-1 to win National Championship. Go Bills Good to hear from you, Wiz. Thanks for the info! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Isn't VCU actually the conference favorite? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 Isn't VCU actually the conference favorite? I think you are correct. I asked them about this at the Sports Book and they said they were still showing VCU joinining in 2013.. VCU has just recently moved their A-10 join date to this year and the Sports Book hadn't updated their records. The reason for this is the only bets they are taking is for the Nat Chmpshp.....no conference champships at this time. So updating things... Vegas agreed ...VCU wins ...we finish 2nd....The Bills and VCU both Dancing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 F$^k VCU. We're winning the A-10. Suddenly Shaka Smart is smarter than RM? I don't think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Metzinger Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Nobody beats the Wiz! We're all standing in the shadow of a Billiken giant here, folks. Great stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iggy Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 I've got a ticket from Flamingo with the Bills at 150:1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 F$^k VCU. We're winning the A-10. Suddenly Shaka Smart is smarter than RM? I don't think so. FUOK THEM UP THEIR STUPID ASSES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU21 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 http://deadspin.com/5851837/the-man-who-bet-the-cardinals-at-9991-when-they-were-out-of-the-race-is-looking-smart-and-rich-right-now 80-1 makes us basically a lock to win it all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Not to dampen any one's spirits, but what are their odds of making the final 4? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted May 22, 2012 Author Share Posted May 22, 2012 Not to dampen any one's spirits, but what are their odds of making the final 4? The last team projected to make the final 4 (Mich, Mich St or Kan) has 12-1 odds to win the entire tournament. Their chances of making the Final 4 would be about 7-1. Based on that, I would estimate the Bills chances at 50-1 to make the Final 4. This is a far cry from last May when we were not on the radar at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 I must be missing something about MSU. Didn't they lose their top 2 players? Either they've got one hell of an incoming class, or they had a lot of talent sitting on the bench against us that didn't play. We get the right seed in the right bracket, I could see us making the final 4 next year, assuming we get some decent play on the inside. And that's not made after drinking a spiked bottle of Billiken Blue Kool Aid. I base it on we've got one of the best and deepest backcourts in the land, a couple of bigs that cause matchup problems, we're defense oriented, and a coach who's one of the top 10 in D1 hoops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 and a coach who's one of the top 10 in D1 hoops. -who may or may not coach next season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 I must be missing something about MSU. Didn't they lose their top 2 players? Either they've got one hell of an incoming class, or they had a lot of talent sitting on the bench against us that didn't play. We get the right seed in the right bracket, I could see us making the final 4 next year, assuming we get some decent play on the inside. And that's not made after drinking a spiked bottle of Billiken Blue Kool Aid. I base it on we've got one of the best and deepest backcourts in the land, a couple of bigs that cause matchup problems, we're defense oriented, and a coach who's one of the top 10 in D1 hoops. I heard we were ranked 122....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 The last team projected to make the final 4 (Mich, Mich St or Kan) has 12-1 odds to win the entire tournament. Their chances of making the Final 4 would be about 7-1. Based on that, I would estimate the Bills chances at 50-1 to make the Final 4. This is a far cry from last May when we were not on the radar at all. Wiz, are you sure that a team with 12-1 odds to win it all would be at 7-1 for the final 4? Seems like they should be 3.25-1 as there are 4 times as many teams and only 1 can win (this presumes all 4 12-1 teams have an equal chance of winning). Put another way, why in the world would anybody bet on a team at 12-1 to win it all when they could have 7-1 to just get to the final 4? To put that in context for the Billikens, if we are 100-1 for the title we should be approximately 25-1 for the final 4. Of course people should remember that Vegas takes a huge spread on these futures bets and you'd have to spend like $225 to guarantee yourself a $100 payout so its not fair to say SLU is expected to make the Final Four 1 out of 26 times. In reality, its higher than that (i.e. 1 out of 50 times or something like that) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 -who may or may not coach next season Not funny, Cowpoke®. We've heard whispers about him not looking too good these days, and he missed the banquet because of "personal" reasons. My hope is he's in a phat farm and losing about 40. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 To make the Final Four, you have to make the tournament and win 4 games. To win it all, you have to make the tournament and win 6 games. Winning it all is not 4 times as difficult as making the Final Four. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted May 22, 2012 Author Share Posted May 22, 2012 Wiz, are you sure that a team with 12-1 odds to win it all would be at 7-1 for the final 4? Seems like they should be 3.25-1 as there are 4 times as many teams and only 1 can win (this presumes all 4 12-1 teams have an equal chance of winning). Put another way, why in the world would anybody bet on a team at 12-1 to win it all when they could have 7-1 to just get to the final 4? To put that in context for the Billikens, if we are 100-1 for the title we should be approximately 25-1 for the final 4. Of course people should remember that Vegas takes a huge spread on these futures bets and you'd have to spend like $225 to guarantee yourself a $100 payout so its not fair to say SLU is expected to make the Final Four 1 out of 26 times. In reality, its higher than that (i.e. 1 out of 50 times or something like that) The only thing out now are the odds to win the NC....no Final 4 , Sweet 16, etc...so it was just an estimate and judging by your own logic it looks like you agree at the end.(50 to 1) Odds don't always follow an exaxt pattern because it gets much tougher to to move up each rung of the ladder which brings me to slu72. Could we have made the Final 4 last year? There was a chance. Could we make it this year? There is a chance. But I think you do need to drink some blue Kool Aid at this point to be a Final 4 believer. Last year, I had the Bills at 15th which means we had a pretty good chance to make the Sweet 16....and we almost did. A shot or 2 here or there and we beat MSU. But in order for us to get to the Final 4 we would have needed to beat one of the Final 4 to replace that team (in this case Louisville) Our chances of beating one of the Final 4 teams so we could have made the Final 4 were as follows....Ky..8%...OSU....12%....Kan...14%....Lville...16%. So yes we could have made the Final 4 last year but it would have taken a miracle. This year's estimates are just that at this point. Nothing is meaningful till after Thanksgiving. 80 to 1 at this point just means we have a pretty good shot to make the Big Dance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 To make the Final Four, you have to make the tournament and win 4 games. To win it all, you have to make the tournament and win 6 games. Winning it all is not 4 times as difficult as making the Final Four. Well, since only 1 of the 4 teams that make the Final Four can win the national championship it could be argued that it is 4 times as hard. In any given year there are 4 times as many Final 4 teams as there are national champions. Winning the national champioinship is twice as hard as simply getting to the title game (i.e. there is a 50% chance you win the game). Making it to the title game is twice as hard as getting to the final 4. And on down the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted May 22, 2012 Author Share Posted May 22, 2012 Well, since only 1 of the 4 teams that make the Final Four can win the national championship it could be argued that it is 4 times as hard. In any given year there are 4 times as many Final 4 teams as there are national champions. Winning the national champioinship is twice as hard as simply getting to the title game (i.e. there is a 50% chance you win the game). Making it to the title game is twice as hard as getting to the final 4. And on down the line. That assumes you have a 50% chance of winning the game. Ky was favored to win every game...e.g. they had a 70% chance of beating Lville.....which is why it more than twice as hard getting to the title game and why the odds are skewed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 That assumes you have a 50% chance of winning the game. Ky was favored to win every game...e.g. they had a 70% chance of beating Lville.....which is why it more than twice as hard getting to the title game and why the odds are skewed. Agreed, which makes my original point about a 7-1 odds teams for the Final 4 not being right for a 12-1 national champion even more on target. A 7-1 odds teams for the Final 4 isn't even the favorite in their regional so there is no way they would be the favorite once the final 4 begins. Put it this way, if I could go long a team at 7-1 odds for the Final 4 and short the same team at 12-1 for the national chamionship I'd make a lot of money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Well, since only 1 of the 4 teams that make the Final Four can win the national championship it could be argued that it is 4 times as hard. In any given year there are 4 times as many Final 4 teams as there are national champions. Winning the national champioinship is twice as hard as simply getting to the title game (i.e. there is a 50% chance you win the game). Making it to the title game is twice as hard as getting to the final 4. And on down the line. My mistake, you are correct. The reason the odds to win the championship are not 4 times longer than the odds to make the F4 is because the games are not exactly 50%. If a team is 7 to 1 (12.5%) to make the F4, and 12 to 1 (7.7%) to win 2 more games and win the title, they need to be at least 75% to win in both the semifinals and finals, which is way too high for games against other Final Four teams. Then again, for a 1 or 2 seed (a national title contender), 7 to 1 to make the F4 is way too long. It should be more like 2 to 1 or 3 to 1. Kentucky was about even money (50%) to make the F4 this year, which is extremely high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 I must be missing something about MSU. Didn't they lose their top 2 players? Either they've got one hell of an incoming class, or they had a lot of talent sitting on the bench against us that didn't play. We get the right seed in the right bracket, I could see us making the final 4 next year, assuming we get some decent play on the inside. And that's not made after drinking a spiked bottle of Billiken Blue Kool Aid. I base it on we've got one of the best and deepest backcourts in the land, a couple of bigs that cause matchup problems, we're defense oriented, and a coach who's one of the top 10 in D1 hoops. I agree with you but then again I dont know enough about them to make a judgement call. That said, I dont think the odds makers do either. Im betting that MSU is picked that high for 2 reasons: 1. izzo 2, Because the front of their jerseys says this You put the same team in a Northwestern jersey and they arent getting the love. Its the same reason Duke will always be in the top 15 and ND football will always have a top 10 recruiting class. I like Duke basketball and ND football but I dont like teams being ranked because of the name on the jersey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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