The Wiz Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 And thus begins a difficult road trip. St Joes is a B+ rated team and one of the tier 1 A-10 teams. Right now they are a better team then Dayton and playing them at their place will not be easy ....not to mention that bird is annoying. While we are not playing at our potential right now we are playing good enough to beat them. I think if we play focused for the full 40 min and take care of the ball we win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDG Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I'll take any kind of win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 We gotta at least split this road trip. I'm already a little on edge... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 We gotta at least split this road trip. I'm already a little on edge... Don't know if this helps any, but if we beat St. Joe we probably sweep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westy03 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Don't know if this helps any, but if we beat St. Joe we probably sweep.So I'm assuming you are showing St. Joe as the better of the two teams. Lasalle has a good record but their schedule has been abysmal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 So I'm assuming you are showing St. Joe as the better of the two teams. Lasalle has a good record but their schedule has been abysmal They are about equal. I am figuring a win over St. Joe will not only get us a boost in our ranking but some extra momentum to complete the sweep. Incidentally, a key matchup that same night....LaS vs Rich. .......LaS by 1 over Rich. You gotta love the parity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Pine Jim Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 We gotta at least split this road trip. I'm already a little on edge...Me too. I would take a split, delirious with a sweep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiseAndGrind Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The team is staying in Philly, so hopefully that helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDG Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I expect a sweep. I'd live with a split, but I think the team needs to show that it is the class of the league by making a statement in Philadelphia, the heart of the A-10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsrmajic Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 And thus begins a difficult road trip. St Joes is a B+ rated team and one of the tier 1 A-10 teams. Right now they are a better team then Dayton and playing them at their place will not be easy ....not to mention that bird is annoying. While we are not playing at our potential right now we are playing good enough to beat them. I think if we play focused for the full 40 min and take care of the ball we win. Question for The Wiz - is there a correlation between your spread and the expected winning percentage? In other words, would you expect a team favored by 3 to win 60% of the time, while a team favored by 10 should be expected to win 80% of the time. I'm curious because I keep thinking about those fans who say they "expect" us to win out because we will be favored in all games. That is a flawed argument, however, because even if you are expected to win 75% of the time, that means you are expected to lost 1 of 4 games. So a team with 7 games left, even if they are favored in all games, would statistically be expected to lose one or two of those games. Anyway, I am trying to determine the expected winning percentage when you post your point spread, if that is possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonka Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I think we'd all be happy with a split. Yet, I wonder how many people will say that and then when it happens have a complete meltdown over the loss? If we do lose one of the two, that means we can probably only lose one more in the remaining 5 games and if it's against anybody other than Xavier it could be bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I won't be happy at all with a split. These are teams the Bills should beat if we want to hear "Saint Louis" called on Selection Sunday. 1-1 is OK, but with Temple having an easier schedule this week, I think the Bills need both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I think we'd all be happy with a split. Yet, I wonder how many people will say that and then when it happens have a complete meltdown over the loss? If we do lose one of the two, that means we can probably only lose one more in the remaining 5 games and if it's against anybody other than Xavier it could be bad. I have a complete meltdown after every loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Question for The Wiz - is there a correlation between your spread and the expected winning percentage? In other words, would you expect a team favored by 3 to win 60% of the time, while a team favored by 10 should be expected to win 80% of the time. I'm curious because I keep thinking about those fans who say they "expect" us to win out because we will be favored in all games. That is a flawed argument, however, because even if you are expected to win 75% of the time, that means you are expected to lost 1 of 4 games. So a team with 7 games left, even if they are favored in all games, would statistically be expected to lose one or two of those games. Anyway, I am trying to determine the expected winning percentage when you post your point spread, if that is possible. Your reasoning is correct. The spreads can be tied to winning percetages. I don't have my probability/ percentage charts with me ( on my way to a bball game) but when i return on Tues. I will post them. Your percentage numbers on spreads are pretty close. Off the top of my head, Ithink St. J was about 63% and LaS about 60% so chances of a sweep are about 38%. Though as I said in an earlier post if we win the first we should win the second one. I am one of those people showing we will be favored to win all the remaining games. As you said though being favored in all the remaining games may mean we still lose some.of those upcoming games. Let's just take them one at a time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 And thus begins a difficult road trip. St Joes is a B+ rated team and one of the tier 1 A-10 teams. Right now they are a better team then Dayton and playing them at their place will not be easy ....not to mention that bird is annoying. While we are not playing at our potential right now we are playing good enough to beat them. I think if we play focused for the full 40 min and take care of the ball we win. Per Sagarin, SLU is a 1.7 point favorite at St. Joe's and a 1.67 point favorite at LaSalle, at this point. SLU is actually favored right now per the Sagarin system in all remaining regular season games: 13.17 over Richmond, 23.4 over Fordham, 15.05 at URI, 8.45 over Richmond, and 4.6 at Duquesne. Forget the split at this point, I say SLU goes for the sweep in Philly, just like SLU accomplished 2 years ago. SLU by the numbers: RPI: 35 currently; per rpiforecast.com: projected 33 overall, 32.0 Expected RPI Rank. Sagarin: 19 Warren Nolan (Nolan Power Index, NPI): 28 Pomeroy: 13 Massey: 39 Keep winning, and SLU dances in March. If there has to be a loss, it is better if it comes on the road, and not against URI. Let's run the table and win out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 St. Joe's is 10 and 1 at home, beating the likes of Penn State (65-47), Creighton (80-71), Villanova (74 to 58), Dayton (77-63) and La Salle (70-66). Their one loss was to, inexplicably, Charlotte. Hagan Arena is a pit and always packed with about 3K people. We have had some very good success there over our recent years. SJU will provide matchup issues. Theyhave four guys averagibng double digits and two -- Aiken and Roberts -- are those 6'8" or 9" atrhletic guys we have problems with. Langston and Jones are a nice pair of guiards -- Langston is the two, Jones is a 5'9" jet ala Chaz Williams at Umass. This game has problems written all over it., La Salle has yet to lose at home and has won on the road at Duquesne. The Philly papers are playing up their new-found confidence and belief in each other and the coach. Lots of pot-shots being taken at departed Huggins/WVA transfer Aaric Murray (Murray and Staten play for Huggy next year!). Gola Arena is another piece of crap high school gym. Seats abouty 2K. La Salles plays four guards although Pettis is 6'5". Ramon Galloway is their sole paint player right now at 6'8". We've swept Philly before. I would love to do the same this year but don't have a warm and fuzzy about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccarthyirish7 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 We've swept Philly before. I would love to do the same this year but don't have a warm and fuzzy about it. It's pretty safe to say (at least for me) that I don't get a warm fuzzy about playing anyone in the A-10. The parity in the league is unreal, and even when we are matched against the lowly of the A-10 this year, their players still present match-up problems. With that said, still LOVE our team and wouldn't trade our collection of guys for any other in the league... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HusakAttack Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I will be at the LaSalle game so that guarantees a win... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I won't be happy at all with a split. These are teams the Bills should beat if we want to hear "Saint Louis" called on Selection Sunday. 1-1 is OK, but with Temple having an easier schedule this week, I think the Bills need both. +1. We should be expecting this team to sweep. Anything less is a disappointment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'm not really worried about anyone's big man/men beating us. In our losses, it has been the guards that have killed us. Whether it was the quick darting guards for LMU and UNM hitting impossible shots, Dillard controlling the game in crunch time, or Temple and UMass' guards going off on us from 3 point range, we have been beat by superior guard play for the most part (Putney is the exception, although, he killed us from outside for the most part). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Nothing good about Philadelphia, except the Cheesesteaks. It's gonna be tough getting out of there w/ a sweep. And if the A-10s shown us anything this year it's a strong league from 1 thru 11. A sweep would be as good as the Gmen winning the SB. I can't expect 2 miracles in one week. I'll settle for 1-1, but picking which W is still tough to do. If we beat St. J's will that over confidence thing hurt us again, but if we do, RM will somehow dig deep and motivate them to beat LaSalle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 Question for The Wiz - is there a correlation between your spread and the expected winning percentage? In other words, would you expect a team favored by 3 to win 60% of the time, while a team favored by 10 should be expected to win 80% of the time. I'm curious because I keep thinking about those fans who say they "expect" us to win out because we will be favored in all games. That is a flawed argument, however, because even if you are expected to win 75% of the time, that means you are expected to lost 1 of 4 games. So a team with 7 games left, even if they are favored in all games, would statistically be expected to lose one or two of those games. Anyway, I am trying to determine the expected winning percentage when you post your point spread, if that is possible. To answer your question, the win probability % against St. J is 58%....against LaS it is 55%...so are chances of a sweep are aprox. 32%. As I said in an earlier post if we win against St. J we will probably sweep not only because of the numbers but the momentum too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsrmajic Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 To answer your question, the win probability % against St. J is 58%....against LaS it is 55%...so are chances of a sweep are aprox. 32%. As I said in an earlier post if we win against St. J we will probably sweep not only because of the numbers but the momentum too. Thanks - that also means a 19% chance to get swept and a 51% chance for a split. Like you said, let's get the first one tomorrow and see what happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 @ moytoy: Putney at Umass was considered and discussed by the Umass broadcast team as a "6'9" shooting guard." Huge match-up problem for us. Some consider CJ Aiken to be the best shot blocker in the nation behind the Kentucky kid. Galloway can go off and if he is going to go off, I would expect him to do it more in his friendly confines than anyone else's. So, if Aiken is dominating the middle, we will need to establish the perimeter game (i.e. take and MAKE our treys) ala Xavier. If that occurs, we can feed the beast inside. Shot blockers are susceptable to the pump fake, so Conk has to take his time and get in rhythem. If Roberts sneak over for help defense, the extra pass to Evans should work. He TOO has to get set and go up strong. Then, make the free throws. St. Joe's is far from deep. Getting them into foul trouble will hurt them substantially. Going to be interesting to see how the zebras react to the Frankenstein-monster look-alike prowling the St. Joe's coaching box. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archy McNally Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 @ moytoy: Putney at Umass was considered and discussed by the Umass broadcast team as a "6'9" shooting guard." Huge match-up problem for us. Some consider CJ Aiken to be the best shot blocker in the nation behind the Kentucky kid. Galloway can go off and if he is going to go off, I would expect him to do it more in his friendly confines than anyone else's. So, if Aiken is dominating the middle, we will need to establish the perimeter game (i.e. take and MAKE our treys) ala Xavier. If that occurs, we can feed the beast inside. Shot blockers are susceptable to the pump fake, so Conk has to take his time and get in rhythem. If Roberts sneak over for help defense, the extra pass to Evans should work. He TOO has to get set and go up strong. Then, make the free throws. St. Joe's is far from deep. Getting them into foul trouble will hurt them substantially. Going to be interesting to see how the zebras react to the Frankenstein-monster look-alike prowling the St. Joe's coaching box. I would think SLU would match up Evans against Aiken. He gives up a 4 inches but I don't know if that matters on the wing. Conk guarding Roberts. Still going to be a tough game. Bills can't let their guards get the better of them, which has happened too often in the A10 this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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