OT - Colby traded

[slufanskip]

So, you are going to quit the Cards because a manager, who has consistently won in this town, 'ran' an underachieving player out of town in an effort to make a post-season push? I am not sure we got equal value for Colby, but I think we made our team better for the stretch drive. It is easy to dismiss Edwin Jackson, but it is hard to find a young starting pitcher (still only 27) that has as much big league experience as him. While he has been somewhat inconsistent in his career, he also has an All-Star game appearance and no-hitter to his credit.

As of right now, he has pitched better than Westbrook or McClellan and makes the Cards staff a lot better immediately. Kyle gets to move to the bullpen, where he is very effective. Also, Jackson is pitching for a contract next season, so expect him to put in extra effort, especially against a weak NL Central. Another factor is that we got rid of ineffective lefties (Miller and Tallet) and picked up a highly effective one (Mark R.) Dotel might be old (37) but he has been very good this season and still can strike out batters. Probably a more effective option in the middle innings than Motte or the AAA picher of the week.

My favorite part of the trade is getting Patterson, because I think of Patterson everytime someone mentions all of the 'potential' Rasmus has. Patterson was another 5-tool OFer that everyone kept waiting on to become a star. Now, he is just a backup OFer who is a throw in on a trade.

Frankly, Jay was outplaying Rasmus and needed to be in the lineup. He is a better defensive player and is currently hitting over .300 with a higher slugging % than Colby. Despite the talk that Colby has more speed than Jay, Jay has shown far better range in CF than Rasmus.

What was the last year the Cards won a playoff game?

[jbizzle09]

except that Kemp had a pretty poor year last year and the same things being said about Colby being lacksidaisical were being said about Kemp in LA.

Kemp had 2 part time years at 21 and 22. He had a very good year with an ops of .799 at 23 as a full time player. The following year he had a breakout year with an ops of .894 at 24. Then all of a sudden had an ops of .760 at 25. He still hit with power but he had a poor ba and an even worse obp because he wouldn't take a walk. He was called lazy and it was said he wouldn't listen, so there are some comparisons. Will he be Kemp? I don't know ... probably not, but he does still have the potential to be a top 5 centerfielder. Without looking it up I believe he was 1st or 2nd in centerfielders in ops last year at 23.

As a full time player

Kemp

age 23 ops .799

24 ops .842

25 ops .760

Rasmus

age 23 ops .859

age 24 ops .753

Kemp is almost 2 years older than Colby and had his slump in what would be his 3rd year of playing full time and we see he came through it alright. Colby is having his in his 2nd year ... will he come through alright, who knows, but we do know if he does it won't be as a Card. Could we have gotten less for him next year? Probably not unless he had a career ending injury. Kemp and Colby's careers parallel more than you think

Couple of issues I have with how you are presenting your numbers. You are acting like this is only Colby's 2nd full season. His rookie year he played in 147 games, with 114 games started, and had 520 PA. That is pretty much the definiton of a full season and someone getting regular playing time. So let us not act like Colby was a part-time player in 2009.

Another thing is that Kemp never had the amount of hype coming from the minors that Colby did. Colby was rated as the #5 prospect by Baseball America prior to 2008 and then #3 prior to 2009. The expectation was that he was going to rake and be an impact player as soon as he came to the majors. Kemp didn't have those expectations while in the minors.

Kemp had to force his way into the starting lineup in LA by hitting out of his mind in 2007. Colby had the starting CF job handed to him in 2009 despite a poor 2008 AAA season due solely to his potential and talent. Colby was supposed to be All-Star caliber his rookie season and at least by his 3rd season. Last season, he was decent, but still inconsistent, not a good CFer and didn't utilize his speed on the basepaths. Nothing improved this season and many things got worse.

I see some similiarities in your comparisons on the two players, but from where I am sitting, I see a lot more differences and don't think you can accurately compare them. Probably better to compare with more heavily hyped OFers, such as JD Drew or Corey Patterson. Rasmus might be good still, but just don't think it was ever going to be in StL and the divorce needed to happen sooner rather than later.

[jbizzle09]

court, no disagreement that at this point in patterson's career he isnt a comparison anymore. but go back to 2002 when patterson became a starter through the next few seasons and cory's numbers are more similar to rasmus than what kemp's numbers are to rasmus.

no doubt at this point patterson is a throw in and will be a bench player and occasional weekend starter. no one believes patterson will be the cardinals full time centerfielder any more.

my only point was to say that kemp is no comparison and rasmus didnt deserve to be compared to kemp. at this point in his career, colby seems to be more on cory's career path. for colby's sake i hope that changes considering all the hype he came with.

Agreed. Comparisons to Patterson are more based on career expectations at similar points in their careers.

Edited July 27, 2011 by jbizzle09

[courtside]

court, no disagreement that at this point in patterson's career he isnt a comparison anymore. but go back to 2002 when patterson became a starter through the next few seasons and cory's numbers are more similar to rasmus than what kemp's numbers are to rasmus.

no doubt at this point patterson is a throw in and will be a bench player and occasional weekend starter. no one believes patterson will be the cardinals full time centerfielder any more.

my only point was to say that kemp is no comparison and rasmus didnt deserve to be compared to kemp. at this point in his career, colby seems to be more on cory's career path. for colby's sake i hope that changes considering all the hype he came with.

Why would I go back 9 years ago? Cards aren't getting Patterson of 9 years ago.

You are discounting that this is just Rasmus' third season. Many MLB players play their best from later 20's to early 30's. I have no reason to believe Rasmus won't be any worse any time soon than he is now, just starting as a 24 year old third year player...and I have every reason to believe that he'll at the very least get slightly a little better than that.

Cardinals are going all out to win this season. They are sacrificing 3.5 more years of low cost good value player in Rasmus for not a whole lot on paper in return...unless the lefty becomes a future year solid starter in rotation. It will also hurt the Cardinals financially to trade away a low cost decent value player. I think you underestimating Rasmus' current and future value. I'm not sold on him being a star player...but I do think he has potential to be a long term good solid player...if he were 30 plus years old that'd be different, and if he had a high salary.... his value such as OPS which I do care about is grossly undervalued right now.

The mgr doesn't like him. The GM is under lots of pressure to win today. The mgr won't be managing much longer etc...and this trade does help the team for the rest of this season to be a better team this year. At what cost? Time will tell.

[jbizzle09]

Why would I go back 9 years ago? Cards aren't getting Patterson of 9 years ago.

You are discounting that this is just Rasmus' third season. Many MLB players play their best from later 20's to early 30's. I have no reason to believe Rasmus won't be any worse any time soon than he is now, just starting as a 24 year old third year player...and I have every reason to believe that he'll at the very least get slightly a little better than that.

Cardinals are going all out to win this season. They are sacrificing 3.5 more years of low cost good value player in Rasmus for not a whole lot on paper in return...unless the lefty becomes a future year solid starter in rotation. It will also hurt the Cardinals financially to trade away a low cost decent value player. I think you underestimating Rasmus' current and future value. I'm not sold on him being a star player...but I do think he has potential to be a long term good solid player...if he were 30 plus years old that'd be different, and if he had a high salary.... his value such as OPS which I do care about is grossly undervalued right now.

The mgr doesn't like him. The GM is under lots of pressure to win today. The mgr won't be managing much longer etc...and this trade does help the team for the rest of this season to be a better team this year. At what cost? Time will tell.

I think you missed the point of comparing Patterson and Rasmus. Roy and I mentioned him because Patterson was also a heavily hyped OFer with worlds of talent and potential that never lived up to it. It has nothing to do with him being traded to the Cards or his role on this team. It has to do with seeing what Rasmus's career trajectory might be.

Going beyond comparisons and back to the point of whether this is a good trade or not, I think the fact that the Cards have Jay, who is currently outplaying Rasmus and is also cost-controlled for another year beyond Rasmus, played a big part. Rasmus was the better trade bait due to the potential factor and what still might lie ahead for him.

Like you said, the Cards are just trying to win now and deal with next year, next year. Rasmus was the best trade piece they had to obtain certain other pieces (starting pitcher, quality relievers) that they needed to win with right now. Better to trade on Colby's potential now and shoot for a pennant, as he is still seen as a potential star.

[courtside]

I understand quite well. Rasmus is in his 3rd season and you want to compare him to a guy in his 12th season?...?

Check back with me in 9 years for Rasmus if that is your comparison. Patterson will be a bench depth veteran outfielder who will play when guys get injured or need a day off.

[slufanskip]

Couple of issues I have with how you are presenting your numbers. You are acting like this is only Colby's 2nd full season. His rookie year he played in 147 games, with 114 games started, and had 520 PA. That is pretty much the definiton of a full season and someone getting regular playing time. So let us not act like Colby was a part-time player in 2009.

Another thing is that Kemp never had the amount of hype coming from the minors that Colby did. Colby was rated as the #5 prospect by Baseball America prior to 2008 and then #3 prior to 2009. The expectation was that he was going to rake and be an impact player as soon as he came to the majors. Kemp didn't have those expectations while in the minors.

Kemp had to force his way into the starting lineup in LA by hitting out of his mind in 2007. Colby had the starting CF job handed to him in 2009 despite a poor 2008 AAA season due solely to his potential and talent. Colby was supposed to be All-Star caliber his rookie season and at least by his 3rd season. Last season, he was decent, but still inconsistent, not a good CFer and didn't utilize his speed on the basepaths. Nothing improved this season and many things got worse.

I see some similiarities in your comparisons on the two players, but from where I am sitting, I see a lot more differences and don't think you can accurately compare them. Probably better to compare with more heavily hyped OFers, such as JD Drew or Corey Patterson. Rasmus might be good still, but just don't think it was ever going to be in StL and the divorce needed to happen sooner rather than later.

You're right on his stats, I don't know what I was looking at. It wasn't intentional, My bad. Regarding the hype, it may mean there is actually something there, but needs the right guy to coax it out and help him find some consistency. There is no doubt LaRussa has not been a Colby fan from day 1. It's more than just his ups and downs or his perceived laziness. If LaRussa decides he doesn't like you, it's over ... it won't change. The problem is with Pujols and Holliday getting big dollars kids will have to be a part of success and not all of them are going to fit into LaRussa's mold of a ballplayer and we can't juist throw away the talented ones that don't. That's what happened with Ryan and it's occurring again with Rasmus. Who's the next one?

[Box and Won]

I like it. Rasmus is a crybaby. Long live larussa. Best coach in the history of stl sports besides majerus.

++

I have to think they made this deal knowing that they would be able to re-sign Jackson next year.

The acquisition of Corey Patterson is the only part of this trade I don't like.

[jbizzle09]

I understand quite well. Rasmus is in his 3rd season and you want to compare him to a guy in his 12th season?...?

Check back with me in 9 years for Rasmus if that is your comparison. Patterson will be a bench depth veteran outfielder who will play when guys get injured or need a day off.

I am dropping this. Next thing I know we will be on page 8 of this discussion and I will want to hit my head against a brick wall.

[jbizzle09]

You're right on his stats, I don't know what I was looking at. It wasn't intentional, My bad. Regarding the hype, it may mean there is actually something there, but needs the right guy to coax it out and help him find some consistency. There is no doubt LaRussa has not been a Colby fan from day 1. It's more than just his ups and downs or his perceived laziness. If LaRussa decides he doesn't like you, it's over ... it won't change. The problem is with Pujols and Holliday getting big dollars kids will have to be a part of success and not all of them are going to fit into LaRussa's mold of a ballplayer and we can't juist throw away the talented ones that don't. That's what happened with Ryan and it's occurring again with Rasmus. Who's the next one?

I tend to believe that Ryan's line of .223/.279/.294 last season had more to do with him not being here than not getting along with TLR or some of the players in the clubhouse. When a player has an OPS of .573 it doesn't matter how well they field, they are hurting the ballclub with their bat. Even though he has improved this season in Seattle, he is still barely above replacement level (.264/.322/.342). He has a great glove, but that is about it.

[courtside]

I am dropping this. Next thing I know we will be on page 8 of this discussion and I will want to hit my head against a brick wall.

Only twice in his 12 year career has Patterson had an OPS as good as Rasmus for a full season. In 2002 which Roy mentioned, Rasmus had an OPS of 96 points higher.

Patterson is not anywhere near Rasmus' league.(12 years) That is the point. To lump them together as underachieving talent at this point is not something I'd come close to doing. Rasmus is at a higher level of production now and he's just etting started. If Rasmus cannot produce his current numbers moving forward then that'd be different. All Rasmus has to do is match his current numbers for xyz more seasons to be better than Patterson. He wouldn't have to improve at all to be better.

Hype? That doesn't do anything for me. Not interested. Irrelevant.

[For-DaLove]

Someone already compared him to JD Drew and that's the perfect comparison. Im glad we shipped Colby out of town. It's been well documented he can't be coached.

[slufan13]

I do think that some of Rasmus' problem was LaRussa, but Rasmus' dad was like his main hitting coach and that's not going to change. Pretty hard to coach a player like that.

[moytoy12]

I understand quite well.

It's obvious you don't.

[Box and Won]

Someone already compared him to JD Drew and that's the perfect comparison. Im glad we shipped Colby out of town. It's been well documented he can't be coached.

I think he's more Drew than Van Slyke, that's for sure. Actually, he's probably more Von Hayes than Van Slyke.

[moytoy12]

Someone already compared him to JD Drew and that's the perfect comparison. Im glad we shipped Colby out of town. It's been well documented he can't be coached.

Sorry, but trying to compare him to other players doesn't do anything for me. Not interested. Irrelevant.

[moytoy12]

Actually, he's probably more Von Hayes than Van Slyke.

He may run like Mays but he hits like...oh, different Hayes.

[Randy]

http://www.foxsportsmidwest.com/pages/video?UUID=7ec516f9-d5ca-4b1a-9610-6eceb0d35c85#

[jbizzle09]

Only twice in his 12 year career has Patterson had an OPS as good as Rasmus for a full season. In 2002 which Roy mentioned, Rasmus had an OPS of 96 points higher.

Patterson is not anywhere near Rasmus' league.(12 years) That is the point. To lump them together as underachieving talent at this point is not something I'd come close to doing. Rasmus is at a higher level of production now and he's just etting started. If Rasmus cannot produce his current numbers moving forward then that'd be different. All Rasmus has to do is match his current numbers for xyz more seasons to be better than Patterson. He wouldn't have to improve at all to be better.

Hype? That doesn't do anything for me. Not interested. Irrelevant.

You just had to pull me back in, didn't you?

First off, if you go to Colby's baseballreference.com page, and see who compares to thru age 23 (his last full season played), you would see that one of the 10 players is Corey Patterson. Another player that I noticed and found interesting is Oddibe McDowell, as like Patterson, McDowell was a highly touted OF prospect who didn't become the All-Star that many predicted. On the other hand, Colby also compares favoribly thru this age with Andre Dawson (HoFer), Bobby Bonds (multiple All-Star) and Roy Sievers (multiple All-Star.) Obviosuly, he can move in either direction.

But back to your thinking that it is silly to compare Colby to Patterson. Let us just look at the similarities first, shall we?

-Both players were first round draft picks.

-Both players were rated by Baseball America as top 5 prospects two years in a row (Patterson was #3 for 2000 and #2 for 2001; Colby was #5 for 2008 and #3 for 2009.)

-Both are/were centerfielders

-Using your favorite stat, OPS, Patterson's from 2002 (when he became the starting CF for Chicago at age 22) thru 2004 was .749. Colby's OPS from 2009 thru today was .777. Colby's is higher, but it isn't a massive difference. Also, most of that difference comes from Colby walking significantly more than Patterson, thus having a higher OBP. Patterson and Colby have nearly identical SLG% and HRs during those time periods.

-Despite being blessed with great speed, both were considered average to below-average defensive centerfielders.

-Eventually, the media and fans turned on both players and both teams traded them away.

Yes, the jury is still out on Colby. Sure, he might not end up being like Patterson or Oddibe McDowell (.753 OPS in first 3 seasons), two highly regarded talents that ended up fizzling out. He might still be a perennial All-Star. He could even be a future HoFer. It is still too early to say exactly what will happen. However, it is fair to compare his career trajectory with that of Patterson, because there are many similarities there. We know what has happened with Patterson, so that is one potential future for Colby.

[Billiken4life5]

In the short term the Cardinals have a better starting rotation, bullpen (getting McClellan back is huge), and a better defense. Jay is by far the Cards best defensive outfielder. While Colby's disagreements with larussa certainly accelerated his ticket out of town but he doesn't do a lot of the small things that help a team win. He is one of the worst situational hitters I've ever seen, rarely makes a throw on target, and absolutely refuses to hit the ball to left field. He's got all the talent in the world and very well may be an all star someday but it wasn't going to happen here because he wasn't in line with the Cardinals or TLR's philosophy. Miswell improve the team for this year's pennant run and even if the new guys leave the Cards get draft picks as compensation

[DeSmetBilliken]

I think any Colby Rasmus trade discussion needs to include this masterpiece from a couple years ago.

[thetorch]

I don't have a problem with trading Rasmus.I think the chances of him being an all star caliber player are about 20% at this point. It could happen but I'm not going to bet on it.

I do have a problem with LaRussa. His comments last night really forced Mozeliak's hand. LaRussa's actions caused the Cardinals to trade an asset for far less than what it was worth. If we wanted to maximize Colby's value we would have been much better off trading him in the offseason. In a situation like this Larussa had far too much power. He is a HOF manager no doubt, but 1 WS title doesn't mean he runs the organization. If he had 2 or 3, like he should have won, maybe but with his limited success he shouldn't be given the ability to pull strings like he does.

Colby as a player speaks volumes to the Cardinals farm system. It still isn't fixed. We cannot draft and develop quality players, this has been going on for 10 years. We'll continue to scramble to win a weak division, or worse not be competitive, unless this is fixed.

I give credit to Mozeliak. He was forced to trade Colby, basically today, and he still was able to make the team better for this year. Long term who know, but that goes for the whole organization as we have tons of contracts to negotiate in the offseason.

I really hope LaRussa is gone next year. Cardinals have been putting out high priced patchworked teams with serious flaws with the excuse of "winning now for Tony." This has led to a bloated salary structure and a depleted farm system that can't fill gaping roster holes. It will get worse before it gets better. As Cardinals fan I think we will look back on LaRussa's single WS title, and wonder whether it was worth it to send this franchise into a death spiral.

[For-DaLove]

I don't have a problem with trading Rasmus.I think the chances of him being an all star caliber player are about 20% at this point. It could happen but I'm not going to bet on it.

I do have a problem with LaRussa. His comments last night really forced Mozeliak's hand. LaRussa's actions caused the Cardinals to trade an asset for far less than what it was worth. If we wanted to maximize Colby's value we would have been much better off trading him in the offseason. In a situation like this Larussa had far too much power. He is a HOF manager no doubt, but 1 WS title doesn't mean he runs the organization. If he had 2 or 3, like he should have won, maybe but with his limited success he shouldn't be given the ability to pull strings like he does.

Colby as a player speaks volumes to the Cardinals farm system. It still isn't fixed. We cannot draft and develop quality players, this has been going on for 10 years. We'll continue to scramble to win a weak division, or worse not be competitive, unless this is fixed.

I give credit to Mozeliak. He was forced to trade Colby, basically today, and he still was able to make the team better for this year. Long term who know, but that goes for the whole organization as we have tons of contracts to negotiate in the offseason.

I really hope LaRussa is gone next year. Cardinals have been putting out high priced patchworked teams with serious flaws with the excuse of "winning now for Tony." This has led to a bloated salary structure and a depleted farm system that can't fill gaping roster holes. It will get worse before it gets better. As Cardinals fan I think we will look back on LaRussa's single WS title, and wonder whether it was worth it to send this franchise into a death spiral.

The only thing that will send the Cards into a death spiral is if they give Albert 30 mil a year.

I also don't realize how everyone can just give Colby a pass here. Everyone knows he would rather listen to his daddy than the coaches. He also requested to be traded last year. And as far as his trade value goes, it would have been higher if he would have produced better.

[Clock_Tower]

The only thing that will send the Cards into a death spiral is if they give Albert 30 mil a year.

I also don't realize how everyone can just give Colby a pass here. Everyone knows he would rather listen to his daddy than the coaches. He also requested to be traded last year. And as far as his trade value goes, it would have been higher if he would have produced better.

+1

And the team's collective IQ just went up 20 points with the loss of Colby.

[courtside]

You just had to pull me back in, didn't you?

First off, if you go to Colby's baseballreference.com page, and see who compares to thru age 23 (his last full season played), you would see that one of the 10 players is Corey Patterson. Another player that I noticed and found interesting is Oddibe McDowell, as like Patterson, McDowell was a highly touted OF prospect who didn't become the All-Star that many predicted. On the other hand, Colby also compares favoribly thru this age with Andre Dawson (HoFer), Bobby Bonds (multiple All-Star) and Roy Sievers (multiple All-Star.) Obviosuly, he can move in either direction.

But back to your thinking that it is silly to compare Colby to Patterson. Let us just look at the similarities first, shall we?

-Both players were first round draft picks.

-Both players were rated by Baseball America as top 5 prospects two years in a row (Patterson was #3 for 2000 and #2 for 2001; Colby was #5 for 2008 and #3 for 2009.)

-Both are/were centerfielders

-Using your favorite stat, OPS, Patterson's from 2002 (when he became the starting CF for Chicago at age 22) thru 2004 was .749. Colby's OPS from 2009 thru today was .777. Colby's is higher, but it isn't a massive difference. Also, most of that difference comes from Colby walking significantly more than Patterson, thus having a higher OBP. Patterson and Colby have nearly identical SLG% and HRs during those time periods.

-Despite being blessed with great speed, both were considered average to below-average defensive centerfielders.

-Eventually, the media and fans turned on both players and both teams traded them away.

Yes, the jury is still out on Colby. Sure, he might not end up being like Patterson or Oddibe McDowell (.753 OPS in first 3 seasons), two highly regarded talents that ended up fizzling out. He might still be a perennial All-Star. He could even be a future HoFer. It is still too early to say exactly what will happen. However, it is fair to compare his career trajectory with that of Patterson, because there are many similarities there. We know what has happened with Patterson, so that is one potential future for Colby.

Again one of the areas where we disagree is some sort "hype" that you have for players. Let me try to give you a different example and maybe it will help you understand my opinion.

College hoops team recruits a Scout/Rivals/ESPN or insert recruiting ranking service here ranks a recruit top 10 or top 50 etc...Nationally...doesn't matter to me the number. And they rank a second player nothing at all. Both kids go to one school. I absolutely will not have higher expectations for the top ranked recruit vs the non-ranked recruit. Once they get there it's all the same.

I don't sit around and talk about Albert Pujols being drafted in round 13 or Peter Kozma being drafted early in the draft. It's important to draft as well as possible in every round...and...its important sign free agents well and trade well etc...but once they are on the team or in the organization everyone is equal as a player in terms of opportunity.

Obviously there are differences between college and pro based on money, but the overall point remains.

If you have a player that costs money and that player is not performing, I'm not interested in playing that player just because they make more money or have more hype. The Cardinals are well known for playing underperforming higher priced players instead of others simply because of salary. That isn't something I'd do.

If the high draft pick can't make it out of the minors because he isn't good, then I'm not pushing him to the majors. And so on.

I'm not interested in hype. It doesn't raise or lower my expectations.