Loyola, SIU, Pacific and Houston

[ACE]

I think we will need to win two of these four non-conference road games to even have a chance at an at-large bid.

[slu72]

I'd agree, Ace. In fact maybe even 3 of them if the conference RPI is not going to be good. We don't want the committee saying SIU, Pacific, Houston, Loyola beat the 2nd or 1st place team in the A-10. That will not bode well. Much better if they say, SLU beat these guys on the road.

[Milwaukee Billiken]

I'd agree too. However, if they only win 2 of those 4 tough ones on the road, winning 2 of the 3 tough non-conference home games is a must. (UNC, Mo. State, Ole Miss). This Loyola game is huge.

[brianstl]

I think if we finish .500 against teams on our schedule that make the tournament and finish second in the coference we are in. If we preform better our seed will only improve.

[Box and Won]

How's Pacific shaping up this year? They're usually pretty tough.

[Milwaukee Billiken]

They're looking weak.

2-3. Only 1 win over a division 1 opponent...a 1 point victory over UMKC at home.

[brianstl]

I know it is early, but they have a RPI ranking of 261. OUCH!!!!!

[ACE]

That game still scares me.

[Milwaukee Billiken]

They don't have anyone over 6'8 if it makes you feel any better. IV is going to dominate at Pacific.

[willie]

Lets face it any road game scares you. Untill we prove that we are an upper eschelon team that can win anywhere you have to be afraid. I do think our up tempo style may serve us better on the road. It doesn't make every single possesion as important, and will allow us to relax and play with less fear.

[DoctorB]

Latest AP Poll:

only SIU gets even a few votes, and they are about #35 based on those. The other teams have exactly the same number of votes that we do, which is zero.

That puts all of us outside the top 50 or so teams, currently.

Road game or not, these are the kinds of games that good teams, let alone really good teams, just need to win. I certainly hope we win at least 2 of them.

In fact, if we lose 3 or 4 of those games, perhaps we do not even deserve an at-large bid.

[brianstl]

It doesn't matter what the press vote or the coaches vote the only ranking the selection committee cares about is the RPI. In Ken Pomeroy's RPI SLU is 21, MSU 26, UNC 48, Loyola 51, SIU 54, Houston 115, and Pacific 261. In the conference XU is 4, Richmond 22, LaSalle 38, Dayton 126, Charlotte 128, GW 143, and UMass 145. It is early and there will be a lot of movement in these rankings.

[Milwaukee Billiken]

This time of year, the polls are much more accurate than the RPI.

I'd sooner look to the Sagarin Ratings than RPI at this point.

Sagarin has SLU at 74 and Loyola Chicago at 68.

Based on his rankings and system, Sagarin has tonight's game at 83-78, Loyola.

The Bills can definitely take this one.

Also of note, Sagarin has the A-10 #9, just ahead of C-USA at this point. That's higher, and in my opinion, more accurate than any other site I've seen so far.

[brianstl]

It is really to early to put any stock in any poll or rating. You have to wait till mid-Janury. Sagarin is really similar to the system sports books use to set the early Vegas line. If you know what you are doing you can win a lot of money at this time of year.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Agreed. I still expect a tough game in Stockton, CA. But it is a game that SLU can win if the Billikens bring their A game. UOP plays in a fairly modern 6,000 seat building.

I will know more re Pacific after tonight when UOP hosts USF. UOP has won the relatively weak Big West in recent years, but has lost a lot of its best players to graduation. UOP has a veteran coach that knows what he is doing.

SLU has always had trouble playing on the West Coast. I cannot remember a SLU win out here. I was at losses at Santa Clara (Melvin Robinson's last game under Coach Rich Grawer), at UCLA (even with Larry Hughes and Coach Spoonhour, the Billikens received a healthy portion of Pauley Pavilion home cooking and lost a close game on a Saturday afternoon), at USF, still under Spooon (that one in particular still stings; SLU blew a 14 point halftime lead); and at Cal under Coach Romar. SLU also lost at USC early in Spoon's tenure. Interestingly, SLU beat all of those teams except UCLA in the games in St. Louis, including blowout wins over USF and Cal.

SLU plays UOP on a Tuesday night, Dec. 12.

[billiken_roy]

we cant be talking 500 in the ooc games. we have to win. to insure an ncaa bid, imo we can only have 2 maybe 3 losses going into conference games and then we need to finish no worse than second in the a-10.

just scheduling a tough schedule doesnt put you in the tourney. you have to win as well.

[Box and Won]

You had to bring up the USF game - that one was really painful! I believe that was Justin Love's first season with the Bills, but he was still injured at the time.

We also lost to Washington in Seattle under Romar (although we beat them at home when Ross the Boss/Darth Varner dealt the final blow to win the game for us.)

[kshoe]

"It is really to early to put any stock in any poll or rating. You have to wait till mid-Janury."

So why did you, just two posts above, say the only thing that matter is the RPI and then proceed to list the RPIs of all our opponents. Maybe you didn't intend to do so, but by listing each of them you seem to give credence to them. One only needs to look at te top 10 RPI right now to know that it is complete bunk at this point:

UCLA

Butler

Wichita St.

Xavier

California

Arkansas

Texas Arlington

New Mexico

Ohio St.

San Diego St.

[Quality Is Job 1]

No. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt0607.htm That means that the Sagarin isn't an accurate measurement of THIS YEAR's teams and conferences.

[billiken_roy]

while that list might not be the real top ten this year, i bet almost everyone of them make the tourney this year. arlington is the only one i havent read about. the rest seem to be good teams. sounds like you buy into the espn version of tv greatness equates to deserving teams.

i have long believed that in reality the likes of butler and wichita actually belong but because they are the traditional powers everyone wants to pooh them. and then the world is all amazed at all the "upsets" in march. the truth is probably that many werent really upsets and deserved to be where they were.

[Bay Area Billiken]

That is correct re Justin Love. That was his first year at SLU, and he was unable to play in that USF game out here due to injury. I still don't know how we lost that game. We destroyed USF in St. Louis the year before, with Larry Hughes torching the Dons. And SLU completely dominated the first half out here.

Also, we lost at Gonzaga two years ago. So there's another one. It is time to win one out here.

[Quality Is Job 1]

The Billikens won at Washington in 2000-01. http://www.billikens.com/scores/2000-01.html The score was 69-61. I remember Jason Edwin's scoring 10 points in that game and finishing off the scoring (I think) with a dunk on a fast-break feed from Floyd McClain (who I think was getting his first bit of playing time).

[Box and Won]

For some reason, I thought we played them out there more recently than that, but I guess not.

[Bay Area Billiken]

That's right. So we did win one out here on the Left Coast.

But we still need to win one in California. This is the year.

[Quality Is Job 1]

You said, "Under Romar." Romar was the Bills coach in 2000-01. Romar has gone on record saying he would never schedule a game against SLU as long as Brad Soderberg is the coach, so there couldn't have been a game against Washington since Romar left.