The Wiz Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 SLU's defensive woes compounded by inability to force turnovers Stu Durando Jan 26, 2024 On Jan 26 at 851AM I put up the UMass spread thread on this board. My lead topic as always was "General Outlook" where I discuss things going on with the Bills team that need extra emphasis. In that post , I explained the problem of TO spreads particularly are inability to force opponent TOs. Later in that same day the above headline appeared in the St L Post Dispatch. Either great minds think a like or it was just a coincidence. In any case, Stu brings this up to Ford ...and Ford agrees that this is part of the defensive problem that needs to be fixed. This is good because in order to fix a problem you first have to acknowledge it. Of course those who are regular readers of my posts know that I have been harping on this stat for weeks. TOs are always in my forecast because they are an important stat. But I only harp on a stat when it consistently affects our ability to win over time. And this stat does that this year. After the UMass game, we are now 14th worst ITN for the season and 4th WITN in the last 3 games in opponent TOs. This issue is about TO spreads...the difference between your TOs and the opposing team's TOs. Usually, the problem is a team is not protecting the ball or being careless with passes and their own TO count is high. But in this case, the issue is we don't force TOs which is creating a negative spread. The problem came to the forefront against La Tech when you had a black swan event(a black swan event is a term used in statistics meaning an extremely rare event or anomaly) . In that game Tech had NO TOs ...something that might happen once in a decade or so. From there on we have just continued to trend down. How does this affect the game? TO spreads affect point spreads. This is different from the stat that is labeled points off TOs whereby you take possession of the ball and you score on a TO. The magic number in a TO spread is 2.25 pts. This calculation takes into account not just points that could be scored on a TO but the lost opportunity from the team that turned it over. The rough breakdown is the the opponent gets 1.25pts for the TO and the team that lost the ball loses an "opportunity point". The numbers are based on the teams shooting percentages and generally vary between 2 and 2.4 pts. But generally it gravitates to around 2.25. So how does this work? Let's look at the UMass game. In that game, we had 12 TOs and UM had 7....TO spread= 5....TO spread factor...2.25.... 5x 2.25pts =11pts....the exact difference in the game. Coincidentally, UMass points off TOs was 11pts...that number doesn't take into account points Bills scored off of TOs or lost opportunities on the 12 Bills TOs. So the TO spread is a better indicator of game outcome. How does this affect games... When the Bills lose the TO spread...there is an 82% chance of a loss. Conversely, when they win the TO spread they win 55% of the time. This means when you lose the spread it is almost a sure loss ...if you win the spread you have a chance to win. In other words, winning the spread you still have work to do (like making the slash) but it gives you a chance....Losing the TO spread is almost a certain loss regardless of what else you do. At this point I pushed the computer and asked ...what would it take to win the game in a losing spread? The answer for the Bills would be to shoot 54%+ from the 3P line....Not likely very often. Bottom line....Close the TO spread...win games. CenHudDude likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 -thanks Wiz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 So we’ve solved the riddle, Stu Durando is The Wiz!! I used to think The Wiz was Jeff Sagarin but not the case after all. BrettJollyComedyHour likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 With all due respect to the Wiz I think he is using a Comadore Computer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettJollyComedyHour Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 20 minutes ago, billikenbill said: So we’ve solved the riddle, Stu Durando is The Wiz!! I used to think The Wiz was Jeff Sagarin but not the case after all. I feel like Stu is too busy to be the Wiz lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 37 minutes ago, billikenbill said: So we’ve solved the riddle, Stu Durando is The Wiz!! I used to think The Wiz was Jeff Sagarin but not the case after all. Perhaps The Wiz is with Dorothy.....Follow the yellow brick road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 26 minutes ago, willie said: With all due respect to the Wiz I think he is using a Comadore Computer. That would be a Commodore 64...with a souped up 8 bits willie likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 20 minutes ago, BrettJollyComedyHour said: I feel like Stu is too busy to be the Wiz lol. I feel like I am too busy to be The Wiz. Fraz, Bay Area Billiken, SLUMedBilliken15 and 3 others like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I feel like you’re too busy to be Stu Durando. The Wiz and NextYearBill like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: Perhaps The Wiz is with Dorothy.....Follow the yellow brick road. Minutemen, Explorers, and Spiders, oh my. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, billikenbill said: Minutemen, Explorers, and Spiders, oh my. Oh Bills, I don't think we are in Chaifetz anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thetorch Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Our TO differential has been garbage all season. It wasn't very good last year. We are actually creating slightly more steals this year than last but we are still in the bottom 10% in the country. The difference between last year is our rim protection. We clogged up the middle and made opposing teams take bad shots at the rim and we forced more outside shots. This year we have no rim protection and our block numbers and FG% defense are at the bottom of the NCAA. Anybody who looked at our roster this season could see this. We had a weakness, steals and didn't improve it, and our strength, rim protection is all but completey gone thanks to our roster construction. This isn't some new thing, I've been preaching this since July. willie and Pistol like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Totally agree with this. Our lack of rim protection makes a bad defensive team totally inept. Playing TJ at the 5 only makes a bad situation worse . Before Brad got cleared I thought Bruce was the best bad option but all options are bad. Roster construction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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