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St. J over the Bills by 18


The Wiz

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So close...yet so far on the Dayton game...If you want to see why we lost ...check the Dayton spread thread.

On to the St. J team. Another A- team...another tough game. We just faced one of the best defensive teams in the A-10. Now we move on to a team that is just as good defensively. In fact, you could make a pretty good case that St. J is better on D. Dayton 3pt defense was rated as D+....St. J 3pt defense comes in as A+....8th in the nation. With our 3pt shooting coming in below Prairie View A&M lately, this is not a good combination.

For Sunday, one of their regulars , Oliva is questionable. He missed last night's game with the flu. Also we have 2 players to stop ....Miles and Bembry...their go to guys.

The Bills (still D+ ) will need to regain their shooting touch. Also, the careless passes will have to disappear. St. J is not a team that needs to be given free points. Reducing TOs and better shooting will also remove the dead zones.

Here is what we need to do to win....

St. J

Slash................38/28

Miles pts............,.14

..."......reb...............6

...".....FG%.........under 50

Bembry pts..........13

.....".......reb...........6

Players w/10pts....2

The Bills

Slash.................44/33/72

TOs.........................12

Players w/10pts........3

Dead zones .............0

Pts in half..................30

Bottomline.....Looks bleak coming into this game...BUT...we just played an A- team even... forcing them into OT and losing in the final seconds....playing with horrible offensive numbers. If we can have a "normal" game (or even a good game) offensively and cut down the mistakes, it could be a close game. Avoid the DZ and we have a chance to win.

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-in our last 10 games our 3pt% is 30.7, 5 at home it is 33.0, 5 away it is 28.3

-according to stats @ espn.com the 175th ranked 3pt team (the median) shoots 34.6 (and UD is 174), 33.0% ties for 246th, 30.7% would be 318th and 28.3% would be 347 out of 351

-our season 3pt% of 31.3 gets us in at 309th, in conf games we shoot 31.6% from 3 so actually better, by the slimmest of margins

-avg for the season we hoist 18.6 attempts per game

-those are some bad numbers

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-in our last 10 games our 3pt% is 30.7, 5 at home it is 33.0, 5 away it is 28.3

-according to stats @ espn.com the 175th ranked 3pt team (the median) shoots 34.6 (and UD is 174), 33.0% ties for 246th, 30.7% would be 318th and 28.3% would be 347 out of 351

-our season 3pt% of 31.3 gets us in at 309th, in conf games we shoot 31.6% from 3 so actually better, by the slimmest of margins

-avg for the season we hoist 18.6 attempts per game

-those are some bad numbers

Anyway you cut it, it comes up F. That's why I have been using Prairie View A&M (worst shooting 3pt team) as a marker. Unfortunately we had a number of games below their 25.8% average. You never want to below PVAM.

Interestingly, EWU is 18th in the nation in 3's....led by none other than McBroom.

And the clock winds down....tick , tick, tick..........

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I feel like the program has hit "Transformers" level and our character is named "the Fallen." Just received email notification that the alumni reception at St. Joe's in Philly has been cancelled. Lack of interest/participation/tickets sold. Now my game tickets are coming via FedEx. This sucks because it really scrambles things --- do I want my cheesesteaks from Jims? Pats? Genos? Johns? But more importantly do I now chow down before the game? Or after?

Before -- could toss my cookies if the Bills get hammered. After -- may not have an appetite if the Bills get hammered. See, if you just talk this out you see the answer appear miraculously in front of you --- right before your eyes!

'Get hammered' it is!

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I feel like the program has hit "Transformers" level and our character is named "the Fallen." Just received email notification that the alumni reception at St. Joe's in Philly has been cancelled. Lack of interest/participation/tickets sold. Now my game tickets are coming via FedEx. This sucks because it really scrambles things --- do I want my cheesesteaks from Jims? Pats? Genos? Johns? But more importantly do I now chow down before the game? Or after?

Before -- could toss my cookies if the Bills get hammered. After -- may not have an appetite if the Bills get hammered. See, if you just talk this out you see the answer appear miraculously in front of you --- right before your eyes!

'Get hammered' it is!

Take a shot every time we miss a three. At least you'll have one "make"

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Interesting sidenote about Prairie View A&M. They finally fired their 10+ year head coach after a 1-18 start this year. How they kept that guy who started the season 65 games below .500 I'll never know. Since he was canned, they've gone 4-3, winning 4 of their last five. A case in point of who is in the head coaching chair matters. Time to give Crews the pink slip.

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Interestingly, EWU is 18th in the nation in 3's....led by none other than McBroom.

And the clock winds down....tick , tick, tick..........

Yes, 'dat true'. What else is true is that EWU's Big Sky Conference is 28th out of 32. Using RPI numbers, SLU slips in 3rd place in the Big Sky. I don't think the competition is all that tough for young Mr. McBroom.

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brownie -- Blue Cross Arena. Why are you guys driving over 100 miles to play a "home" game? Is this a first? You'll need the whole student body to go and it still will fill only a third of the venue. Who's genius was this?

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What's even more amazing than our terrible 3-point shooting is our lack of offensive rebounding. When you miss a 3-pointer I would think you have a better chance to get a rebound since blocking out isn't as important and since the shooter usually can anticipate where his missed shot is going. We take so much pressure off the defense by running back as soon as one of our players shoots, They also can relax when we shoot free throws since we have no one in the lane to try to rebound a missed shot. What is amazing is that we we do this against ALL teams acting as if they are all great in transition. Changes need to be made.

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What's even more amazing than our terrible 3-point shooting is our lack of offensive rebounding. When you miss a 3-pointer I would think you have a better chance to get a rebound since blocking out isn't as important and since the shooter usually can anticipate where his missed shot is going. We take so much pressure off the defense by running back as soon as one of our players shoots, They also can relax when we shoot free throws since we have no one in the lane to try to rebound a missed shot. What is amazing is that we we do this against ALL teams acting as if they are all great in transition. Changes need to be made.

And even with this "strategy", we gave up 90+ points to GMU. A ridiculous strategy by Crews.

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What's even more amazing than our terrible 3-point shooting is our lack of offensive rebounding. When you miss a 3-pointer I would think you have a better chance to get a rebound since blocking out isn't as important and since the shooter usually can anticipate where his missed shot is going. We take so much pressure off the defense by running back as soon as one of our players shoots, They also can relax when we shoot free throws since we have no one in the lane to try to rebound a missed shot. What is amazing is that we we do this against ALL teams acting as if they are all great in transition. Changes need to be made.

You are correct. Our Off reb is abysmal....5.7/ gm ...an F- ....345 out of 351...totally unacceptable. An extra few O-reb /gm could make a huge difference.

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You are correct. Our Off reb is abysmal....5.7/ gm ...an F- ....345 out of 351...totally unacceptable. An extra few O-reb /gm could make a huge difference.

Hard to get an offensive rebound when every player takes off for the defensive end as soon as a shot is released. At the end of the last game without about 45 seconds left in OT and us down we let a shot go and the same thing. Everybody was heading to the defensive end when the shot was released instead of crashing the boards and going for the offensive rebound. I understand Crews' strategy. We suck at rebounding so its better to get back and stop the transition game since we're not likely to get the rebound anyway. But as Majerus used to say, play time and score. If you're losing with 45 seconds left, go for the offensive board. That would take a change in coaching philosophy. Our players are taught to concede rebounds on the offensive end. Hence, no players on the lane when we shoot free throws and the immediate retreat when we get off a shot.

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Hard to get an offensive rebound when every player takes off for the defensive end as soon as a shot is released. At the end of the last game without about 45 seconds left in OT and us down we let a shot go and the same thing. Everybody was heading to the defensive end when the shot was released instead of crashing the boards and going for the offensive rebound. I understand Crews' strategy. We suck at rebounding so its better to get back and stop the transition game since we're not likely to get the rebound anyway. But as Majerus used to say, play time and score. If you're losing with 45 seconds left, go for the offensive board. That would take a change in coaching philosophy. Our players are taught to concede rebounds on the offensive end. Hence, no players on the lane when we shoot free throws and the immediate retreat when we get off a shot.

This is one of the reasons I never list Off reb in my spread threads. Even though it is a weak area and even though it could lead to more pts and wins, I don't lisit it because it is not something we try to improve on. If you don't try to improve then you won't.

If you don't, you won't....4, 3, 2, 1....

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Well even though the Bills ( D+ ) were way out matched by St. J ( A- ) playing in enemy territory, we had a chance to win this game. We didn't need a season high performance... just a good, average, decent game. Those projected numbers I put up before every game are not once a season happenings but doable numbers...doable every game...if we play closer to our potential ...if we focus for 40 min ...if we don't make mistakes. If you are overmatched and want to win, you can't make mistakes.

Let's see what happened......

St. J.........................projected.......................actual

Slash..........................38/ 28.........................48/ 25.....Fail/ Pass

Miles pts.......................14...............................18.........Fail

.........reb........................6.................................4..........Pass

.........FG%.................under 50%.....................54%......Fail

Bembry pts....................13...............................27........Double Fail

.............reb......................6................................8.........Fail

Players w/10pts...............2................................2.........Pass

Bills

Slash..........................44 /33/ 72....................45.5/ 26.9/ 50....Pass/ Double Fail / Double Fail

TO..................................12.................................14.................Fail

Dead zone.......................0...................................1.................Fail

Players w/10pts...............3...................................2.................Fail

Pts / half...........................30................................32/31..........Pass

Looks like the inability to stop Bembry and Miles coupled with the Bills poor shooting from the arc and the charity stripe did us in. To make numbers, we needed 2 more 3s=6pts + 3 more FTs =3pts + 2 less TOs =5pts....6+3+5=14pts...The game spread

Bottomline.....tick..tick...tick....3...2...1

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