The Wiz Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 A great game against LaS in terms of coming from behind and closing it out (twice). For the post game review see post #3 on the LaS over the Bills thread..... Some interesting numbers. Speaking of numbers, the Bills numbers have improved a lot since the win yesterday (and siince Dec...so yes we are still trending up) . And while we are still listed as a D team (hard to move after 27 games) a win over Duq ( C- ) will move us up to D+. Conversely, a loss by Duq will drop them to D+. In addition the fact that the spread is 5 indicates that this is a random game ...ie determined by luck due to the closeness of the spread. It is even more important that we closed LaS out for a win...... a little more experience in tight games. Anyone though that thinks this will be a cakewalk because they are a C- team will be in for a rude awakening. Duq is coming off a big win against Day. Duq is one of the best shooting teams in the A-10. In addition, Colter is 4th in the nation in 3pt% with a staggering 46.7% shooting average. And then there is Mason who is shooting a measly 41.9% from the arc....plus they have others who are gunners too. Well, yoiu get the idea. So if they are so good why are they only C-...and why do they have a losing record? Because they have a stinky defense. And that is what we have to exploit. So here is what we need to do to win..... ....................................#s to win Offense Slashline.......................45/ 35 / 70 FGM...............................23 Assists............................13 TO...................................12 Ash Y...............................13 pts Defense FG%.................................43 3 pt %...............................1/3 Tot Reb.............................35 Assists...............................14 Colter & Mason FG%........40 .... "............"......pts............11 Bottomline.....Can their stinky defense hold our stinky offense? Can our good defense contain their good offense? The answer will be in how we approach this game. If we let up because they are an easier team (we tend to play to the level of our competition ) we will lose. I would like to see us get off to a good start...come out with energy....knock them back on their heels. Play the first 2 minutes as though it was the final 2 minutes. If we play them with the same intensity that we did against LaS...we win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 We owe them one on their court after last year. I say we get another win Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 We owe them one on their court after last year. I say we get another win Wednesday. Yep...They were the ones who broke our 19 game winning streak last year. We were a heavy favorite in that one. Also an addendum to my original post...... For all Duq's fire power on offense....they are one of the worst FT shooting teams in the nation (5th worst) . Could be a factor in a close game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 fan Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yep...They were the ones who broke our 19 game winning streak last year. We were a heavy favorite in that one. Also an addendum to my original post...... For all Duq's fire power on offense....they are one of the worst FT shooting teams in the nation (5th worst) . Could be a factor in a close game. Are they still mainly playing a zone. We've only played against 2 zones, as I recall, and we shot the ball well both times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Are they still mainly playing a zone. We've only played against 2 zones, as I recall, and we shot the ball well both times. They employ a special defense only used by the bottom 10% of all defensive teams..... The L H T M defense Let's Hope They Miss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLUfan_42 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Wiz- what would you say our chances of not playing that first game on Wednesday in Brooklyn are? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Wiz- what would you say our chances of not playing that first game on Wednesday in Brooklyn are? It is possible but not probable. First, we will not be favored in any of the remaining games. But we have a chance to win 3 of the last 4. If we do , then St. J would have to lose 3 of 4. So a lot of things would have to go our way. Bottomline...Don't bet the ice cream money on not playing Wed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FromDaEastSide Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 What does the crystal ball say about other 6 games on the A10 docket Wednesday night? Would assume all home teams are favored. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It is possible but not probable. First, we will not be favored in any of the remaining games. But we have a chance to win 3 of the last 4. If we do , then St. J would have to lose 3 of 4. So a lot of things would have to go our way. Bottomline...Don't bet the ice cream money on not playing Wed. the st joe part will be easier than our task. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmbilliken Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 With all their 3point shooters, will we play our normal help defense with our off side guards sagging to the lane leaving their guys wide open at the 3 point line? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 the st joe part will be easier than our task. I think you are correct. I went back and ran the numbers on St. J and it shows they will not be favored the rest of the way. That changes the equation a bit. IF St. J goes 0-4 the rest of the way we would only need to win 2 of the last 4. IF we beat Duq, we actually would be favored in the GM game giving us a chance. Also with a win over either Duq or GM we would still be alive with a decent chance to beat St. B. So alma you are correct the St J part of the equation will be easier as they are supposed to lose out the rest of the way. Our end will be tougher in that we have to beat Duq or St. B (assumes we will beat GM) neither of which we will be favored. ( but the spreads will be close..5 for Duq. and about the same for St. B.) And finally getting back to SLUfan42's original question in post #6....It is still a long shot to get the day off but not as long as it seemed at first glance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenboy Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Good...we stand a chance to pull out another win. Lets go Bills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yep...They were the ones who broke our 19 game winning streak last year. We were a heavy favorite in that one. Also an addendum to my original post...... For all Duq's fire power on offense....they are one of the worst FT shooting teams in the nation (5th worst) . Could be a factor in a close game. Didn't they go 13-31 from the FT line here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Didn't they go 13-31 from the FT line here? You are much too generous....13-34....38.2%....horrible even by Duq FT standards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 What does the crystal ball say about other 6 games on the A10 docket Wednesday night? Would assume all home teams are favored. Here you go............. VCU (A) over Rich ( B+ ) by 1 Dav (A) & RI ( A- ) even UMass ( B ) over St. J ( C ) by 9 LaS ( B ) over Ford ( C- ) by 5 GW ( B+ ) over St B ( B- ) by 7 Day ( A-) over GM ( C- ) by 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 While Richmond has already won at VCU this year, and it is their cross town rivalry game, VCU is looking for revenge. Richmond is also short Alonzo Nelson-Ododa. While Nelson-Ododa is not a huge game-changer, I think his absence will be enough of a short bench to handicap the Spiders. The key will be making VCU play a traditional half-court game which they seem to be more akin to do what with Weber gone. Truly a pick 'em game but I think VCU wins. If I don't get the Bills game here, I am hoping I do get the Davidson/Rhode Island game. I think the Rams win that at home but Davidson is tough. Rhode Island to keep pace with VCU. I expect Umass to keep the Biliken "Just Say No to Wednesday" hopes alive and beats St. Joe's. I think Fordham can easily beat La Salle if they continue the play they exhibited against us at Rose Hill. Kind of like we beat La Salle, Fordham beat us so Fordham beats La Salle. And La Salle's only real road win was at VCU which might have been a fluke. Fordham wins again? Surely global warming has an effect here. GeeDubya is in an enigma stage right now. They should win at home, right Steverino? The Buff and Blue is fading fast. Going to have to win out in Brooklyn to make dance now. Dayton will wax Mason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Duquesne by 7, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Backhand defeats the wiz again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Ha, yeah you were SO much closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 26, 2015 Author Share Posted February 26, 2015 A great game against LaS in terms of coming from behind and closing it out (twice). For the post game review see post #3 on the LaS over the Bills thread..... Some interesting numbers. Speaking of numbers, the Bills numbers have improved a lot since the win yesterday (and siince Dec...so yes we are still trending up) . And while we are still listed as a D team (hard to move after 27 games) a win over Duq ( C- ) will move us up to D+. Conversely, a loss by Duq will drop them to D+. In addition the fact that the spread is 5 indicates that this is a random game ...ie determined by luck due to the closeness of the spread. It is even more important that we closed LaS out for a win...... a little more experience in tight games. Anyone though that thinks this will be a cakewalk because they are a C- team will be in for a rude awakening. Duq is coming off a big win against Day. Duq is one of the best shooting teams in the A-10. In addition, Colter is 4th in the nation in 3pt% with a staggering 46.7% shooting average. And then there is Mason who is shooting a measly 41.9% from the arc....plus they have others who are gunners too. Well, yoiu get the idea. So if they are so good why are they only C-...and why do they have a losing record? Because they have a stinky defense. And that is what we have to exploit. So here is what we need to do to win..... ....................................#s to win Offense Slashline.......................45/ 35 / 70 FGM...............................23 Assists............................13 TO...................................12 Ash Y...............................13 pts Defense FG%.................................43 3 pt %...............................1/3 Tot Reb.............................35 Assists...............................14 Colter & Mason FG%........40 .... "............"......pts............11 Bottomline.....Can their stinky defense hold our stinky offense? Can our good defense contain their good offense? The answer will be in how we approach this game. If we let up because they are an easier team (we tend to play to the level of our competition ) we will lose. I would like to see us get off to a good start...come out with energy....knock them back on their heels. Play the first 2 minutes as though it was the final 2 minutes. If we play them with the same intensity that we did against LaS...we win. I will try to make this short and sweet.... Let's look at the numbers....... .......................................................#s to win...............actual #s Offense slashline%..................................45 / 35 / 70............42.9 / 28.6 / 63.2.....fail fail fail ...though not by much...2 more 3s & 2 more 2s and we make the slashline = 8pts FGM..................................................23...........................24........................pass Assists..............................................13............................17........................pass+ TOs....................................................12............................11.......................pass+ Ash.....................................................13pts.........................4......................double fail overall offense.....C Defense FG%.....................................................43%.........................44.8................fail 3pt%......................................................1/3...........................39.3%............fail-...prevent 2 threes and we pass both categories=6pts Tot reb....................................................35...........................36...................fail Assists.....................................................14...........................19..................fail- Coilter FG%.............................................50............................30.8..............double pass .....".....pts.................................................11............................12..................fail Mason FG%..............................................40...........................70..................double fail ....."......pts.................................................11............................20..................double fail Overall Defense.....D BTW.......Duq (5th worst shooting FT team in the nation) had one of their best nights of the year...a whopping 80% Bottomline.......Bills slashline...should have 8 more pts and Duq shooting categories should have been 6 pts less ...8+6=14pts and that covers the margin of defeat...so yes, the game was winnable. Nothing more to see here ...move on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Agree Wiz, this game was winnable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Duquesne by 7, Didn't you call for a blowout in another thread? Covering all your bases, I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Didn't you call for a blowout in another thread? Covering all your bases, I guess. My spread was 7. I did think that the Bills would score some unneeded buckets at the end for the score to look closer than the actual game. A 7 point loss but the game would never be close. I've got a 4 game winning streak going over the Wiz. Don't hate on success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 nm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 My spread was 7. I did think that the Bills would score some unneeded buckets at the end for the score to look closer than the actual game. A 7 point loss but the game would never be close. I've got a 4 game winning streak going over the Wiz. Don't hate on success. The Wiz predicted LaSalle over the Bills by 7. You conspicuously refused to offer a spread in that thread, saying only that of course SLU would not be favored in any of the remaining games, as we were clearly the "bottomfeeder" of the A-10. So it's interesting that you're now claiming to have somehow "won" that game over the Wiz when he was predicting a fairly close game and we ended up winning... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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