b.hayes Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Nate Silver & Co. have SLU at the following: 57.693% to win their first game 12.030% to make it to the Sweet 16 04.160% to make it to the Elite 8 01.642% to make it to the Final 4 00.610% to make it to the championship game 00.226% to win the national championship. http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b.hayes Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Also of interest on his post - he lists the 5 teams in each region that he thinks are the most likely to advance to the Final 4. In each region, the 1-4 teams make his list, but in no region does the number 5 team make the list. In the south it is #6 Ohio State, in the East it is #6 North Carolina, in the West it is #9 Oklahoma State, and in the Midwest it is #8 Kentucky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlhoops Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Via Ken Pomeroy... Seed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1W Arizona 95.8 70.8 55.5 40.2 24.9 15.9 6 1S Florida 95.7 71.6 51.2 35.7 22.6 12.9 8 4MW Louisville 87.3 71.5 44.3 31.5 19.7 12.3 8 1E Virginia 96.7 77.4 52.9 35.4 21.2 11.5 9 1MW Wichita St. 95.4 68.1 36.8 24.4 13.9 8.0 13 2E Villanova 92.3 62.3 41.3 21.0 10.8 5.0 20 3W Creighton 87.0 59.1 36.1 16.6 7.6 3.6 27 2S Kansas 88.2 58.1 34.5 16.1 8.0 3.5 29 3MW Duke 84.6 53.5 33.2 14.1 6.8 3.2 31 4E Michigan St. 84.3 51.4 22.9 12.5 5.9 2.4 41 2W Wisconsin 82.2 53.3 29.0 12.4 5.3 2.3 43 2MW Michigan 91.3 60.9 31.2 11.7 5.0 2.1 47 3S Syracuse 83.6 48.4 25.2 10.5 4.7 1.8 55 5S VCU 73.0 42.5 16.8 8.9 4.1 1.6 62 4S UCLA 73.4 39.7 15.0 7.6 3.3 1.3 79 6S Ohio St. 66.7 35.5 17.6 7.0 3.0 1.1 93 3E Iowa St. 73.2 41.2 18.6 7.4 3.0 1.0 96 4W San Diego St. 72.6 43.7 14.5 7.0 2.6 1.0 97 9S Pittsburgh 71.5 23.0 11.9 5.9 2.5 0.9 10811MW Tennessee 40.9 20.8 11.9 4.5 2.0 0.9 117 8MW Kentucky 64.9 23.1 8.9 4.4 1.8 0.7 139 7E Connecticut 63.2 25.7 13.7 5.3 2.0 0.7 145 6E North Carolina 59.4 32.0 13.6 5.1 1.9 0.6 157 5E Cincinnati 56.3 26.8 9.9 4.6 1.8 0.6 162 8W Gonzaga 50.6 14.7 8.4 4.1 1.6 0.6 163 9W Oklahoma St. 49.4 14.1 8.0 3.9 1.4 0.6 178 7S New Mexico 56.9 24.0 11.1 3.8 1.4 0.5 222 5W Oklahoma 63.3 32.3 9.3 4.0 1.3 0.4 223 7W Oregon 60.0 27.2 11.8 3.9 1.3 0.4 233 6W Baylor 58.9 24.0 11.2 3.7 1.2 0.4 25312E Harvard 43.7 18.3 5.8 2.4 0.8 0.2 43811MW Iowa 26.2 11.3 5.6 1.7 0.6 0.2 451 5MW Saint Louis 57.1 14.4 4.3 1.7 0.5 0.2 638 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NextYearBill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 We took Michigan State to the brink in 2012.... and we shot like crap. We are giant killers, just not Oregon killers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 We took Michigan State to the brink in 2012.... and we shot like crap. We are giant killers, just not Oregon killers. 4 seed SLU was favored against 12 seed (NCAA later admitted underseeded) Oregon. I always like the Billikens in the role of the underdog dragon slayer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I would assume SLU to be damn near a pick em with either NC State or Xavier. Maybe a bit of a dog to Xavier at this point, but who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On the other hand, Manhattan lost early in the season at home to Cross-Bronx rival Fordham ... Holy hell...ouch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clock_Tower Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 So Iowa and nc state get in over SMU, Minnesota, Florida st and St. John's (the top nit seeds) and you allege some sort of big conference bias? Any other black helicopters we should look out for? Seems like those are all big conferences to me (except for maybe SMU). Louisville deserved so much better than a 4 seed its comical. There are other factors then the rpi. If it was just rpi why even have a committee to make these decisions? Shoe. So which is it? RPI alone like you told us last week regarding Butler when you said that the Committee based its seeding of Butler last year on their RPI without looking at the "other factors then the rpi" (such as my suggestion that the Committee did factor in Butler's last decade of success, including its back-to-back Finals appearances, in developing a "name" among NCAA Tournament fans/followers) or that RPI is good a starting point before the "other factors then the rpi" are then considered? Last week, rpi alone supported your argument for Butler and now this week rpi alone has led to a comical 4 seeding -- that deserved a much better seed than a 4. Good stuff!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b.hayes Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Damien Lillard and Anthony Davis have faith in us: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/03/how-nba-all-stars-filled-out-their-ncaa-tournament-bracket/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DD3 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Nate Silver & Co. have SLU at the following: 57.693% to win their first game 12.030% to make it to the Sweet 16 04.160% to make it to the Elite 8 01.642% to make it to the Final 4 00.610% to make it to the championship game 00.226% to win the national championship. http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions/ So you're saying we have a chance.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
For-DaLove Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 MB, I hope you read this...Ben W. just tweeted that according to Todd Fuhrman (I'm assuming you know who he is since you're such a big Vegas guy) Louisville would be a 7.5 point against us. Hmmmmmmmm I believe that's exactly what I said, isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFan Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I love reading all of the national articles today about how SLU must beat the ACC Player of the Year. We're the 5 seed here, and oh don't forget we have the A10 Player of the Year. I'm waiting for someone nationally to say that the Wolfpack must beat the A10 Player of the Year. With Jett at 95% or better healthwise, NC State needs to watch out for the A10 Player of the Year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I love reading all of the national articles today about how SLU must beat the ACC Player of the Year. We're the 5 seed here, and oh don't forget we have the A10 Player of the Year. I'm waiting for someone nationally to say that the Wolfpack must beat the A10 Player of the Year. With Jett at 95% or better healthwise, NC State needs to watch out for the A10 Player of the Year. Wow I didn't catch that juxtaposition until right now! those ing ers and their parents! A10 player of the year getting zero respect! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aibhilin Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Dayton and Harvard!!!! my 5-12 picks in several brackets both did it. All 6 brackets have Harvard. Easy upset to pick. GO A10!!!! Let Coach K talk his smack all he wants. Now go get em tonite Bills!!!!! Eliminate your ACC opponent that K snuck in the back door! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NextYearBill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I only care how my bracket is doing. thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Dayton and Harvard!!!! my 5-12 picks in several brackets both did it. All 6 brackets have Harvard. Easy upset to pick. GO A10!!!! Let Coach K talk his smack all he wants. Now go get em tonite Bills!!!!! Eliminate your ACC opponent that K snuck in the back door! Dayton wasn't a 12. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I only care how my bracket is doing. thanks I dont even care about my own until the sweet 16. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 MB, I hope you read this...Ben W. just tweeted that according to Todd Fuhrman (I'm assuming you know who he is since you're such a big Vegas guy) Louisville would be a 7.5 point against us. Hmmmmmmmm I believe that's exactly what I said, isn't it? MB? Dayton? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aibhilin Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Dayton wasn't a 12. OOPS, still a huge upset. Didn't shock me as Dayton has been playing lights-out lately and they got to play OSU. Huge motivator. Win that game Bills!!!!! Win that game! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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