kwyjibo Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 This is the review of the 43 bracketologists who have updated in the last 2 days. SLU is still a consensus 4 pick but moving down a little (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/): 2 5%3 26%4 51%5 16%6 2% The Dance Card (regression analysis of ALL the profile factors; also note they got every team right last year) says SLU is BETTER than its RPI a touch. That is SLU according to the Dance Card is currently a 3 seed (10th in DanceCard rank with 11th RPI). This is good news as the impact of undefeated last stretch, 10-0 on the road, a 4-2 current record against the top 50, and 1-0 against top 25 has made SLU's profile a positive. This makes all projections a little bit more optimistic. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm But even though SLU is currently a 4 seed they will more likely end up somewhere else. I looked at all the regular season and conference tourney possibilities and mostly used RPIforecast (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Saint%20Louis.html) to figure out the probabilities of getting a particular seed. The chance of getting a 2 seed is roughly one in 6 right now (a one seed is technically possible but it means winning out AND having other top teams lose). Even if SLU goes 2-2 down the stretch they would have a lot of different possibilities depending on how A10 tourney goes (they could still be a 3 seed by winning the tourney but likely still a 6 if they were to crap out on Friday). The 7 plus seeds are related to losing more games down the stretch and crapping out in Brooklyn. Bottom line is that SLU right now has a greater than 60% chance at being 4 seed or better. 2 15.6% 3 30.7% 4 17.4% 5 20.9% 6 12.6% 7+ 2.9% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Thank you for the update. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DD3 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Lunardi still has SLU as #4 seed, with opening round games now in Spokane. He's also moved us out of the Midwest region into the East region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 At the beginning of the season I asked on here what we'd have to do to top last season's year-end ranking and tournament seed. I didn't think either would be possible without at least one win against Wis/Wich, but amazingly enough we've already managed one and are well on the way to at least a 3 seed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DD3 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Sorry...here's the link: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology Looks like he has 5 teams each from the A-10 and Big East. Mizzou on the bubble. Richmond and Dayton both in his "First Four Out." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 -thanks kwyjibo, this is great info every week -let's just keep winning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidnark Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The goal should be at least a 3 -- means only having to play a 6 or worse to get to the sweet 16. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The goal should be at least a 3 -- means only having to play a 6 or worse to get to the sweet 16. +1 Agreed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 SLU is moving up closer to a consensus 3 seed with the last 81 bracketologists to update (Monday on): 2 5%3 27%4 60%5 7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Would love to be in the bracket where WSU is the #1. We got them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slubilliken09 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Would love to be in the bracket where WSU is the #1. We got them. Yep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 kwyjibo, it all depends on how well we do in the remaining games, including the A10 tournament. If we can beat VCU and UMass we should go much higher, particularly if we repeat these results in the tournament. I am talking a 2 seed, or even a 1 if we remain unbeaten in the remaining play plus A10 tournament. We might as well enjoy this to its full extent as it is happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DD3 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 In his latest board (2/27), Lunardi has SLU a #4 in the midwest region where Wichita St. is #1. Early games in Spokane. Can you imagine Belmont, UCLA, SLU and Minnesota (or St. John's) in Spokane? I'm guessing there will be some ticket availability. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DD3 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 In that Lunardi bracket, WSU's second game would be against the winner of Memphis and Pitt. That would not make me too comfortable if I was a WSU fan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 kwyjibo, it all depends on how well we do in the remaining games, including the A10 tournament. If we can beat VCU and UMass we should go much higher, particularly if we repeat these results in the tournament. I am talking a 2 seed, or even a 1 if we remain unbeaten in the remaining play plus A10 tournament. We might as well enjoy this to its full extent as it is happening. My post at the top summarizes the possible seeds given the variety of endings to the season. Right now winning out would most likely get SLU a 2 seed but that starts changing when teams ahead of us start losing. SLU has to have a better profile than the best 4 teams in the country (some of those ahead of us may falter a bit but at least 4 will finish fine) for it to be a one seed and it is not realistic to forecast so many top teams losing several games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken class of 15 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 All roads lead to the National Championship Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 kwyjibo, it all depends on how well we do in the remaining games, including the A10 tournament. If we can beat VCU and UMass we should go much higher, particularly if we repeat these results in the tournament. I am talking a 2 seed, or even a 1 if we remain unbeaten in the remaining play plus A10 tournament. We might as well enjoy this to its full extent as it is happening. Exactly. The @ VCU, Dayton, @ U Mass final three conference games are going to be difficult. All three opponents are far more motivated than us. We will be a 6-7 point dog at VCU. And the A-10 Tourney... # 1 seeds get knocked off all the time in conference tournaments historically. rpi forecasts do not take into consideration letdown games. A loss or two really hurts us as a mid major with an RPI SOS of 80. smith said "at least a 3 seed"? kyyjibo and smith do not understand these sophisticated dynamics at all, jabbering about our NCAA seed prematurely. We need to win all our games for a 4, it is possible that might get us a 3, no way a 2. If we lose a few, we go to 5-6-7. Generally speaking, it is better to get a lower seed, but the luck of the draw, who you play and where, are sometimes random, so a seed a little higher or lower is not always a true difference maker. Old guy is right, we need to win these games and IMO it will be a significant challenge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
For-DaLove Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Exactly. The @ VCU, Dayton, @ U Mass final three conference games are going to be difficult. All three opponents are far more motivated than us. We will be a 6-7 point dog at VCU. And the A-10 Tourney... # 1 seeds get knocked off all the time in conference tournaments historically. rpi forecasts do not take into consideration letdown games. A loss or two really hurts us as a mid major with an RPI SOS of 80. smith said "at least a 3 seed"? kyyjibo and smith do not understand these sophisticated dynamics at all, jabbering about our NCAA seed prematurely. We need to win all our games for a 4, it is possible that might get us a 3, no way a 2. If we lose a few, we go to 5-6-7. Generally speaking, it is better to get a lower seed, but the luck of the draw, who you play and where, are sometimes random, so a seed a little higher or lower is not always a true difference maker. Old guy is right, we need to win these games and IMO it will be a significant challenge. If we win the rest of our conference games, we will likely move up to a 3. Win the conference tournament and that could become a 2. Realistically, I expect us to trip up along the way and get a 4 or 5 seed. Edit: After re-reading your post I realize we don't disagree as much as I thought. Bottom line, we need to win tonight and then come out strong on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 kwyjibo, it all depends on how well we do in the remaining games, including the A10 tournament. If we can beat VCU and UMass we should go much higher, particularly if we repeat these results in the tournament. I dont believe it. I think they will move up by getting blown out the rest of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLUfan_42 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 At this point it's not whether or not we're Final Four bound, it's just what road we take Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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