The Wiz Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 A nice win tonight to complete the set. I liked the opp 3 pt shooting % at 31%...keep it under 35% . The overall defense was excellent. . This set of 6 was unusual for me ...predicting 6 wins in a row at one time. I like to to take the games one at a time but the numbers just came together. At the time we were 3-3 and some felt the season was slipping away.... At 9-3 not so much. We were B+ at the start and we are still B+ now. We weren't terrible before and we aren't elite now. We are just a very good team that can get better from here (maybe reach elite if we can gel) A win over New Mex would probably push us to A-. I haven't crunched the numbers yet for the spread but it looks like the Bills will be favored Monday. Yes, some will argue the set of 6 were cupcakes and not only easy to predict but also not very meaningful for the Bills. I would take issue with that. There were some cupcakes but they weren't all that way . Here is what the past 6 look like now........ Valpo...B N Tex...D+ UT-M....F EIU.......F Loy-M...C- SIU-E....D- Valpo a nice win and Loy not a cupcake. These 6 games were resume and confidence builders ...and remember we did the first 5 without KM ...JJ &MM played some long minutes in those games....nothing to apologize for. Also of interest are some of are other past opponents...SC has moved up to a B+ team...and SIU-C has moved up to a C+ (they were an F when we played them) When are opponents improve it is a positive for the Bills. Unfortunately, UW has slipped to C+. They are the weakest team we have lost to at this time. If C+ is your worst loss that's not too bad as long as you don't keep doing it. It beats losing to SDak St. Also the TAMU win is still a decent win with the Aggies checking in at B-. A win over NM might continue the streak for awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Wiz- Way to predict us winning the last 6 cupcakes...who had us losing any of them? Owned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Wiz- Way to predict us winning the last 6 cupcakes...who had us losing any of them? Owned. So I guess based on my 3rd paragraph....where I say those who thought these were easy to predict also thought these were not meaningful wins for the Bills. I trust you fall into the camp that thought the last 6 wins were meaningless. Possibly you missed the South Dakota St (D+) win the other night over our next opponent New Mex.(A-) ...just another cupcake for New Mex. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schasz Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Surely, at the beginning of the season most if not all Billiken Fans had Santa Clara marked down as a win. That did not work out to well for us, but Santa Clara is looking like they will be a real factor in their league. Just curious Wiz where you rate them now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheOldie Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The sun in the tropics must be blinding you. He had them as a bplus Ps. Jake the snake passed away two notes ago. Check Liston fb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 With the win over Cinn , New Mex moved up to A- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonwich Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 With the win over Cinn , New Mex moved up to A- When you gonna post the spread? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NashvilleBilliken Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Why anybody takes issue with the Wiz's numbers is beyond me. The guy picks winners time and time again. He has been here for years and is right 90% of the time...not only with the winner but with the spread. I'm guessing he hasn't worked in years with this system. I'd bet the farm... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Why anybody takes issue with the Wiz's numbers is beyond me. The guy picks winners time and time again. He has been here for years and is right 90% of the time...not only with the winner but with the spread. I'm guessing he hasn't worked in years with this system. I'd bet the farm... Those that take issue are usually those that don't understand numbers, statistics or probability.. The cumulative probability of picking those 6 games correct (just picking the winners ..forget about the spreads) was 64%...very high but far from a sure thing....it was high enough though to predict a 6 game win streak. And yes, I still do work (with numbers) and supplement my income with Vegas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 When The Wiz picks winners against real point spreads, wake me up. Otherwise, it is like those NFL pre game show knuckleheads picking 49ers tomorrow over Arizona. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastsidejoe Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Wiz, you are losing your influence, you need to get on a streak to build that confidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlumniFan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 When The Wiz picks winners against real point spreads, wake me up. Otherwise, it is like those NFL pre game show knuckleheads picking 49ers tomorrow over Arizona. Yeah, but you're obviously still watching those "knuckleheads" and making them rich in the process... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iggy Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Hey Wiz. If you had bet on SLU in Vegas with the line every single game over the past several years how would that have worked out? Is that even something you can get at. It seems like we would have done well. Not sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 When The Wiz picks winners against real point spreads, wake me up. Otherwise, it is like those NFL pre game show knuckleheads picking 49ers tomorrow over Arizona. I may have to put a warning label on these forecasts. ..... Beware of side effects.... Probability may cause dizziness, stats may make you feel uncomfortable and numbers may cause nausea. If you are suffering any of these symptoms you need to step away from Billikens.com. If these symptoms return upon future use you must not click on posts that say The Wiz. If symptoms persist please stare at a picture of "Easy Ed" going to the hoop for at least 5 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Hey Wiz. If you had bet on SLU in Vegas with the line every single game over the past several years how would that have worked out? Is that even something you can get at. It seems like we would have done well. Not sure. I think overall we would do pretty well....more wins then losses. Now if I get to pick and choose a little rather than do every game...we would do real well....Some on the board have told me they are using my numbers and making some money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Pelican Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 When The Wiz picks winners against real point spreads, wake me up. Otherwise, it is like those NFL pre game show knuckleheads picking 49ers tomorrow over Arizona. Perhaps you should pay attention to the spreads The Wiz gives in relationship to the Vegas spreads. Historically, The Wiz gives the spread 3-4 days before Vegas and is spot on. If you gamble with any frequency, you would find these numbers by The Wiz as close as you can get to having a crystal ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010andBeyond Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Wiz, any idea why our rpi forecast took a dive after last nights game even though our probabilities for winning future games seems to have went up slightly? Also, our forecast was trending up even through the eiu and utm games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Wiz, any idea why our rpi forecast took a dive after last nights game even though our probabilities for winning future games seems to have went up slightly? Also, our forecast was trending up even through the eiu and utm games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Wiz, any idea why our rpi forecast took a dive after last nights game even though our probabilities for winning future games seems to have went up slightly? Also, our forecast was trending up even through the eiu and utm games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Perhaps you should pay attention to the spreads The Wiz gives in relationship to the Vegas spreads. Historically, The Wiz gives the spread 3-4 days before Vegas and is spot on. If you gamble with any frequency, you would find these numbers by The Wiz as close as you can get to having a crystal ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Wiz, any idea why our rpi forecast took a dive after last nights game even though our probabilities for winning future games seems to have went up slightly? Also, our forecast was trending up even through the eiu and utm games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="NashvilleBilliken" data-cid="333697" data-time="1356798015"><p> Why anybody takes issue with the Wiz's numbers is beyond me. The guy picks winners time and time again. He has been here for years and is right 90% of the time...not only with the winner but with the spread. I'm guessing he hasn't worked in years with this system. I'd bet the farm...</p></blockquote> Nashville- Backhand knows the wiz and is sarcastic. That said, backhand could write a better algorithm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The Wiz just predicts the point spread a few days early, right? So if he says "SLU by 3 1/2" over NM, then the Vegas / offshore lines come out a few days later, it will be, say, 3, 4, 4 1/2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
For-DaLove Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I could be wrong but I think the wiz gives us a true point spread prediction, not a line to try to even out the bets. Which makes his spread useful if you're a betting man Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I could be wrong but I think the wiz gives us a true point spread prediction, not a line to try to even out the bets. Which makes his spread useful if you're a betting man Nope. Think. How does that help? He is just predicting the point spread based on published power ratings from Vegas and other gambling sources. If you look at one gambling type power rating system (below), SLU is 81, NM is 82. Then give SLU 4 pts for home court. So SLU - 3. So The Wiz says SLU by 3 1/2. Great. There are a few different ones, they are all pretty close. The line Monday will be SLU by 3, 3 1/2, 4, 4 1/2, or so barring injuries etc. SLU is perceived as a good home team by the public and a lot of gamblers will expect a letdown by NM after their big win, so the bookmakers will vary a bit. Again, The Wiz saying 3 1/2 does not help, he is just predicting the pointspread. Now, if he says SLU by 10, or NM by 7, then he is doing something. Anyone can look up the LV power ratings and give out an approximate point spread 3-4 days before the game. Vegas gambling power ratings have been available for decades... now all over the web. http://www.statfox.com/cbb/power/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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