A-10 predictions for '10-'11

[bsheldon]

Here is another link that predicts how this guy thinks teams will finish in conference this season with a little synopsis of each team.

http://www.collegiatehoops.net/2010/07/a10-basketball-preview-and-prediction.html

He seems to have the same feeling that other predictors do--that somehow we will not improve over last year's team despite having essentially everyone back and a top-notch recruiting class. I tend to disagree with this view. Plus he never mentions a single player, just Majerus. Hopefully, at least a couple of our guys will really stnad out this year and get som national attention. KM obviously comes to mind.

Here is how I see the conference shaking out:

1 Temple

2 SLU

3 Xavier

4 Richmond

5 Charlotte

6 Duquense

7 Dayton

8 Rhode Island

9 George Washington

10 St. Joseph's

11 LaSalle

12 UMASS

13 St. Bonaventure

14 Fordham

The only lock in this group that I will gurantee is #14.

Temple returns two studs and with their D they are the team to beat.

I picked SLU second mostly out of optimism, but I do think they will be better than last year and we finished 4th last season.

The next two spots were kind of a toss up, but X always finds a way so they got the nod. They do have a couple of massive holes to fill though. Richmond has one of their own. Another reason I felt good picking SLU ahead of both.

Charlotte will fill the next spot--kind of the top of the second tier. They return their studs and I think Major will be the real deal.

I picked the Dookies next because they just weren't that bad last year and they return their main guns.

Dayton, well this is just kind of where they fit in. They may finish one, two tops, spots higher and may also finish one spot lower. I just don't see them being in the top 3 or 4 with their knack for under achievement or over hype--whichever year after year. Plus they have a few major holes to fill.

Rhode Island is another team that just kind of fit here in the standings. I don't see them winning close to the 26 games they did last year. They lost their studs. They have good recruits, but conference is too tough to win a lot of games with Freshman.

I think GW is best of the last tier of the conference. They weren't awful last year and seem to have the least amount of problems as the rest of the bottom of the conference.

St. Joe's is a team that is almost starting over. Really good recruiting class that I think is a year away.

LaSalle was desimated by injuries last year and this season is going to rely on youngsters.

Umass lost their stud and is rebuilding

St B similar to Umass, but not as good

Fordham, well its Fordham. They will be better than last year, but still in the cellar.

Teams with real shot to underachieve: Dayton--obviously, RI, and X--meaning they may not win conference.

Teams with real shot to overachieve: SLU--believe it, Charlotte, GW, and ST Joe.

[Billikenbooster]

Here is another link that predicts how this guy thinks teams will finish in conference this season with a little synopsis of each team.

http://www.collegiatehoops.net/2010/07/a10-basketball-preview-and-prediction.html

He seems to have the same feeling that other predictors do--that somehow we will not improve over last year's team despite having essentially everyone back and a top-notch recruiting class. I tend to disagree with this view. Plus he never mentions a single player, just Majerus. Hopefully, at least a couple of our guys will really stnad out this year and get som national attention. KM obviously comes to mind.

Here is how I see the conference shaking out:

1 Temple

2 SLU

3 Xavier

4 Richmond

5 Charlotte

6 Duquense

7 Dayton

8 Rhode Island

9 George Washington

10 St. Joseph's

11 LaSalle

12 UMASS

13 St. Bonaventure

14 Fordham

The only lock in this group that I will gurantee is #14.

Temple returns two studs and with their D they are the team to beat.

I picked SLU second mostly out of optimism, but I do think they will be better than last year and we finished 4th last season.

The next two spots were kind of a toss up, but X always finds a way so they got the nod. They do have a couple of massive holes to fill though. Richmond has one of their own. Another reason I felt good picking SLU ahead of both.

Charlotte will fill the next spot--kind of the top of the second tier. They return their studs and I think Major will be the real deal.

I picked the Dookies next because they just weren't that bad last year and they return their main guns.

Dayton, well this is just kind of where they fit in. They may finish one, two tops, spots higher and may also finish one spot lower. I just don't see them being in the top 3 or 4 with their knack for under achievement or over hype--whichever year after year. Plus they have a few major holes to fill.

Rhode Island is another team that just kind of fit here in the standings. I don't see them winning close to the 26 games they did last year. They lost their studs. They have good recruits, but conference is too tough to win a lot of games with Freshman.

I think GW is best of the last tier of the conference. They weren't awful last year and seem to have the least amount of problems as the rest of the bottom of the conference.

St. Joe's is a team that is almost starting over. Really good recruiting class that I think is a year away.

LaSalle was desimated by injuries last year and this season is going to rely on youngsters.

Umass lost their stud and is rebuilding

St B similar to Umass, but not as good

Fordham, well its Fordham. They will be better than last year, but still in the cellar.

Teams with real shot to underachieve: Dayton--obviously, RI, and X--meaning they may not win conference.

Teams with real shot to overachieve: SLU--believe it, Charlotte, GW, and ST Joe.

My biggest concern in the conference is that we have so many games against the big boys on the road this year, vs last year when they were at our house.

mhg

[bsheldon]

My biggest concern in the conference is that we have so many games against the big boys on the road this year, vs last year when they were at our house.

mhg

I agree--hence my optimism. But really you have to win on the road if you want to be considered a top team. That is what it takes. I think we take that step this year. Could we end up finishing 6th--it's possible, but so is finishing 1st as was suggested in the "best-case/worst-case" ESPN article. I will stay optimistic until the play on the court leads me to be otherwise.

[kshoe]

Here is another link that predicts how this guy thinks teams will finish in conference this season with a little synopsis of each team.

http://www.collegiatehoops.net/2010/07/a10-basketball-preview-and-prediction.html

He seems to have the same feeling that other predictors do--that somehow we will not improve over last year's team despite having essentially everyone back and a top-notch recruiting class. I tend to disagree with this view. Plus he never mentions a single player, just Majerus. Hopefully, at least a couple of our guys will really stnad out this year and get som national attention. KM obviously comes to mind.

Here is how I see the conference shaking out:

1 Temple

2 SLU

3 Xavier

4 Richmond

5 Charlotte

6 Duquense

7 Dayton

8 Rhode Island

9 George Washington

10 St. Joseph's

11 LaSalle

12 UMASS

13 St. Bonaventure

14 Fordham

The only lock in this group that I will gurantee is #14.

Temple returns two studs and with their D they are the team to beat.

I picked SLU second mostly out of optimism, but I do think they will be better than last year and we finished 4th last season.

The next two spots were kind of a toss up, but X always finds a way so they got the nod. They do have a couple of massive holes to fill though. Richmond has one of their own. Another reason I felt good picking SLU ahead of both.

Charlotte will fill the next spot--kind of the top of the second tier. They return their studs and I think Major will be the real deal.

I picked the Dookies next because they just weren't that bad last year and they return their main guns.

Dayton, well this is just kind of where they fit in. They may finish one, two tops, spots higher and may also finish one spot lower. I just don't see them being in the top 3 or 4 with their knack for under achievement or over hype--whichever year after year. Plus they have a few major holes to fill.

Rhode Island is another team that just kind of fit here in the standings. I don't see them winning close to the 26 games they did last year. They lost their studs. They have good recruits, but conference is too tough to win a lot of games with Freshman.

I think GW is best of the last tier of the conference. They weren't awful last year and seem to have the least amount of problems as the rest of the bottom of the conference.

St. Joe's is a team that is almost starting over. Really good recruiting class that I think is a year away.

LaSalle was desimated by injuries last year and this season is going to rely on youngsters.

Umass lost their stud and is rebuilding

St B similar to Umass, but not as good

Fordham, well its Fordham. They will be better than last year, but still in the cellar.

Teams with real shot to underachieve: Dayton--obviously, RI, and X--meaning they may not win conference.

Teams with real shot to overachieve: SLU--believe it, Charlotte, GW, and ST Joe.

I really don't think people are insulting us all that much when they pick us 5th in the conference but rather its a reflection of just how good the conference could be. In fact, I have no problem finishing 5th as long as the A-10 is good enough to send 5 teams to the dance.

As good as the A-10 was last year, as a whole the conference seems to be returning more of its core group of talent than most conferences which bodes very well for all.

[bsheldon]

I really don't think people are insulting us all that much when they pick us 5th in the conference but rather its a reflection of just how good the conference could be. In fact, I have no problem finishing 5th as long as the A-10 is good enough to send 5 teams to the dance.

As good as the A-10 was last year, as a whole the conference seems to be returning more of its core group of talent than most conferences which bodes very well for all.

I agree--5th is a real possibility, but that would probably mean that would had to have had an awesome OOC season with probably only one or two losses. Again that is totally possible. The only thing I am sure of is that it will be fun. 5 getting in would be great. 3 out of those five winning at least one game would be even better. 1 of those 3 making the sweet sixteen or beyond better still. Hopefully this is the season where the conference really takes a big step forward--building on last season's success and press. The biggest thing the conference needs is a team besides X to win a couple of tourney games.

[Cowboy]

-where is WH? his look is one i value

[slu314]

I don't feel SLU is being slighted by being picked 5th. However the writer seems to be crazy to think Majerus can win coach of the year if SLU finishes 5th. Why would Majerus get coach of the year this year for finishing 5th when the same team finished 4th last year. As someone else pointed out the writer does not even mention a single player's name. My guess is he read someone else's predictions and modified them slightly, with little to no research regarding SLU.

[slu72]

Last year we were picked about 11th by most and 9th as the best. How'd we do? Who cares what the gurus think. Most don't take the time to really study, except for WH, they A-10 in any depth. X sounds good because they're always there at the end and likely will be this year too. Temple, Dunphy's earned a good rep and deservedly so, they'll be tough. That said, if we've developed over the summer we can hang with either of them and lay some hurt on the rest of the conference.

[bsheldon]

Last year we were picked about 11th by most and 9th as the best. How'd we do? Who cares what the gurus think. Most don't take the time to really study, except for WH, they A-10 in any depth. X sounds good because they're always there at the end and likely will be this year too. Temple, Dunphy's earned a good rep and deservedly so, they'll be tough. That said, if we've developed over the summer we can hang with either of them and lay some hurt on the rest of the conference.

While I agree that a lot if not most pre-season picks/guesses end up being wrong, but I find them fun to debate and talk about--isn't that the point of this board? Yes, we did much better than the talking heads expected last season--lets hope they do it again this year.

I also hope that your last line is correct and that we do in fact lay waste to the rest of the conference. However, I am banking on a split with X this season. If this all holds true, we may be looking at the top 2 or 3 spots in the conference. Again, we won't know until it all happens. I think anywhere from 8th to 1st is realistic and most of those spots with relatively similar odds of happening.

Say maybe something like:

1st 5%

2nd 10%

3rd 15%

4th 20%

5th 20%

6th 15%

7th 10%

8th 5%

Looking at that, that might be skewed a bit to the low side for simplicity. Again, I think we will finish near the top of the conference this year. We do have a much harder conference schedule this year than last--having Temple and Richmond on the road and X twice.

[bauman]

While I agree that a lot if not most pre-season picks/guesses end up being wrong, but I find them fun to debate and talk about--isn't that the point of this board? Yes, we did much better than the talking heads expected last season--lets hope they do it again this year.

I also hope that your last line is correct and that we do in fact lay waste to the rest of the conference. However, I am banking on a split with X this season. If this all holds true, we may be looking at the top 2 or 3 spots in the conference. Again, we won't know until it all happens. I think anywhere from 8th to 1st is realistic and most of those spots with relatively similar odds of happening.

Say maybe something like:

1st 5%

2nd 10%

3rd 15%

4th 20%

5th 20%

6th 15%

7th 10%

8th 5%

Looking at that, that might be skewed a bit to the low side for simplicity. Again, I think we will finish near the top of the conference this year. We do have a much harder conference schedule this year than last--having Temple and Richmond on the road and X twice.

Having Temple and Richmond on the road this year really shouldn't affect our record-in fact it seems like it might even help our RPI- since our games against both those schools last year resulted in L's. Isn't a loss to a good team on our homecourt worse for RPI purposes than a loss on their homecourts? But recordwise, an L is an L.

[Westy03]

Having Temple and Richmond on the road this year really shouldn't affect our record-in fact it seems like it might even help our RPI- since our games against both those schools last year resulted in L's. Isn't a loss to a good team on our homecourt worse for RPI purposes than a loss on their homecourts? But recordwise, an L is an L.

We split with Richmond last year. Beat them at home and got slaughtered at Richmond

[bauman]

We split with Richmond last year. Beat them at home and got slaughtered at Richmond

You're right. I forgot that we played them twice last year. Thanks for the correction.

[bsheldon]

Road games are good for RPI. Playing good teams is good for RPI. Playing good teams at their place and winning is great for RPI.

The basic formula is 25% team winning percentage (WP), 50% opponents' average winning percentage (OWP), and 25% opponents' opponents' average winning percentage (OOWP).

For the 2004-05 season, the formula was changed to give more weight to road wins vs home wins. A team's win total for RPI purposes is 1.4 * road wins + neutral site wins + 0.6 * home wins. A team's losses is calculated as 0.6 * road losses + neutral site losses + 1.4 * home losses.

For example, a team that is 4-0 at home and 2-7 on the road has a RPI record of 5.2 wins (1.4 * 2 + 0.6 * 4) and 4.2 losses (0.6 * 7). That means that even though it is 6-7, for RPI purposes, it is above .500 (5.2-4.2).

This "weighted" record is only used for the 25% of the formula that is each team's winning percentage. The regular team records are used to calculate OWP and OOWP.

As always, only games against Division I opponents count in the RPI.

[BACKHANDtheRICAN]

Based on the news, Backhand is modifying this prediction:

14-12

[spider23]

SLU just jumped right over Richmond. Between your disgusting coach and the bad Karma surrounding your star players, I am not seeing this gap closed:

http://www.richmondspiders.com/sports/m-baskbl/recaps/013010aaa.html

I would like SLU if it wasn't for the disgusting coach.

[billikenbilly]

you came on our board to say that? there is bad karma at a lot of programs right now and our "disgusting coach" is the best in the a-10.

SLU just jumped right over Richmond. Between your disgusting coach and the bad Karma surrounding your star players, I am not seeing this gap closed:

http://www.richmondspiders.com/sports/m-baskbl/recaps/013010aaa.html

I would like SLU if it wasn't for the disgusting coach.

[spider23]

you came on our board to say that? there is bad karma at a lot of programs right now and our "disgusting coach" is the best in the a-10.

Sorry, I generally like SLU, but reading the threads about the alleged rape and the main concern seems to be to defend "our boys" and keep them eligible got me in a bad mood. It just seems that the main concern is the players eligibility. I guess that is to be expected on a basketball message board.

[bsheldon]

SLU just jumped right over Richmond. Between your disgusting coach and the bad Karma surrounding your star players, I am not seeing this gap closed:

http://www.richmondspiders.com/sports/m-baskbl/recaps/013010aaa.html

I would like SLU if it wasn't for the disgusting coach.

Before the "bad Karma" debacle--yes, I felt that SLU would do better than Richmond this coming season. Gonzalvez was a stud and he is gone. We split with you last year and finished a whole 2 games behind you. We had eveyone that matters back and added some studs. I didn't see any major holes in our team. Hopefully this "Karma," as you called it, doesn't affect that for us.

I still think Richmond will be near the top of the league and it will be tough games for the Bills for sure.

As for our coach, I don't know of another in the conference I would take over him.

[billikenfan05]

Sorry, I generally like SLU, but reading the threads about the alleged rape and the main concern seems to be to defend "our boys" and keep them eligible got me in a bad mood. It just seems that the main concern is the players eligibility. I guess that is to be expected on a basketball message board.

I don't give a ###### what you think or what kind of mood your in. Besides you seem to lack an understanding of what is going on around this message board.

[bsheldon]

Sorry, I generally like SLU, but reading the threads about the alleged rape and the main concern seems to be to defend "our boys" and keep them eligible got me in a bad mood. It just seems that the main concern is the players eligibility. I guess that is to be expected on a basketball message board.

Of course we want the boys to play--we also want the events to not have happened. If you really read the threads you would have seen that almost without exception, everyone said that IF there had been proof of wrong doing--which to this point there is none, we would like for them to be expelled. Also, "rape" was never used anywhere--even by the sensationalistic local news reports that used "sexual assault.

[bsheldon]

Before this gets ugly, let me be the first to say, welcome to our board.

[billikenbilly]

Your post above said you would like SLU if it weren't for our "disgusting coach." Now, you say you generally like SLU, but for the threads about an alleged rape. Which is it - the "rape" or the coach?

My main concern is that the right thing be done with this "situation." Based on what I've heard thus far, the right thing, in my mind, is for the players to continue playing. Unless I hear something new, I think the media and potentially the judicial board have blown something non-criminal (maybe gross and unappealing to many) into something that its not, and several people will feel consequences that are extraordinary given the circumstances.

Sorry, I generally like SLU, but reading the threads about the alleged rape and the main concern seems to be to defend "our boys" and keep them eligible got me in a bad mood. It just seems that the main concern is the players eligibility. I guess that is to be expected on a basketball message board.

[spider23]

Before this gets ugly, let me be the first to say, welcome to our board.

Thanks bsheldon. I really liked Soderberg and Lisch and Lidell as well. I thought Soderberg was a real stand up guy and a good coach. Unfortunately for him, he wasn't a strong recruiter. I don't like Majerus pompous attitude. I have read this board for years, and I know the dislike for Majerus was strong on here until last year also. If he can elevate SLU I think it will be good for the conference, though Majerus has been outspoken in his disdain for the A10. I guess another reason to dislike him. Good luck on the season. Hopefully the players involved did not do anything and can play, but seems like there was wrong doing if the school judiciary board has ruled against. As we can see from the MSU case, some prosecutors place an extreme on the burden of proof.

[Clock_Tower]

Thanks bsheldon. I really liked Soderberg and Lisch and Lidell as well. I thought Soderberg was a real stand up guy and a good coach. Unfortunately for him, he wasn't a strong recruiter. I don't like Majerus pompous attitude. I have read this board for years, and I know the dislike for Majerus was strong on here until last year also. If he can elevate SLU I think it will be good for the conference, though Majerus has been outspoken in his disdain for the A10. I guess another reason to dislike him. Good luck on the season. Hopefully the players involved did not do anything and can play, but seems like there was wrong doing if the school judiciary board has ruled against. As we can see from the MSU case, some prosecutors place an extreme on the burden of proof.

Spider. Normally, I'd welcome you, as I would others from other programs, to our Board with a friendly first post. Your comments, though, don't deserve such.

First, stop throwing around the term "rape". No player or student at SLU even had charges filed much less have a case proceed through the legal system. Instead, your reckless comments suggest that you have already convicted them.

Second, this Board is not defending illegal, inappropriate or bad behavior. If circumstances warrant, then I don't know a single poster on our Board who would suggest that our schools/administration turn a blind eye for the sake of winning a few more basketball games. To date, there is very little public and/or known factual information. So far, we know that no criminal charges were even filed and that even the student court (I did not know we had one and I don't beleive they should have jurisdiction in a high profile case like this) apparently doesn't think a rape occurred as they have not recommend expulsion.

Third, please list the names of other schools which would even conduct a proceeding to punish their 2 top players - for the season - after the legal system promptly refused to file charges. SLU appears to be setting a much higher standard than its fellow D1 NCAA schools -- hence the references to Craig Upchurch (a program changing player who was denied admission at SLU despite qualifying under NCAA standards). BTW, SLU has no Phys Ed major and refuses to accept many JUCO kids due to academics and the lack of Phys Ed/basket weaving type classes. Don't confuse discussion about whether SLU should have higher standards than the NCAA with the rampant cheating and criminal activity going on at other schools.

Fourth, the Board has generally been very supportive of RM though his mouth and actions have cause some to criticize some of his words/actions. You are flat out wrong by suggesting: "the dislike for Majerus was strong on here until last year also." That is not, and has not been, the sentiment of this Board and SLU fans. Unless I misreading you, you are implying that we did not support RM until he won 23 games and now we are starting to realize that he is not so bad.

Fifth, you obviously have a reading comprehension problem - and most likely as well as a burr up your a#$ - if you think RM has a disdain for the A10. Instead, he has praised the conference but doesn't think SLU should be part of it. If not part of the A10, the only other options would be a new midwestern "papal conference" should the Big East blow up or the Missouri Valley which is ranked below the A10.

[bauman]

Here is another link that predicts how this guy thinks teams will finish in conference this season with a little synopsis of each team.

http://www.collegiatehoops.net/2010/07/a10-basketball-preview-and-prediction.html

He seems to have the same feeling that other predictors do--that somehow we will not improve over last year's team despite having essentially everyone back and a top-notch recruiting class. I tend to disagree with this view. Plus he never mentions a single player, just Majerus. Hopefully, at least a couple of our guys will really stnad out this year and get som national attention. KM obviously comes to mind.

Here is how I see the conference shaking out:

1 Temple

2 SLU

3 Xavier

4 Richmond

5 Charlotte

6 Duquense

7 Dayton

8 Rhode Island

9 George Washington

10 St. Joseph's

11 LaSalle

12 UMASS

13 St. Bonaventure

14 Fordham

The only lock in this group that I will gurantee is #14.

Temple returns two studs and with their D they are the team to beat.

I picked SLU second mostly out of optimism, but I do think they will be better than last year and we finished 4th last season.

The next two spots were kind of a toss up, but X always finds a way so they got the nod. They do have a couple of massive holes to fill though. Richmond has one of their own. Another reason I felt good picking SLU ahead of both.

Charlotte will fill the next spot--kind of the top of the second tier. They return their studs and I think Major will be the real deal.

I picked the Dookies next because they just weren't that bad last year and they return their main guns.

Dayton, well this is just kind of where they fit in. They may finish one, two tops, spots higher and may also finish one spot lower. I just don't see them being in the top 3 or 4 with their knack for under achievement or over hype--whichever year after year. Plus they have a few major holes to fill.

Rhode Island is another team that just kind of fit here in the standings. I don't see them winning close to the 26 games they did last year. They lost their studs. They have good recruits, but conference is too tough to win a lot of games with Freshman.

I think GW is best of the last tier of the conference. They weren't awful last year and seem to have the least amount of problems as the rest of the bottom of the conference.

St. Joe's is a team that is almost starting over. Really good recruiting class that I think is a year away.

LaSalle was desimated by injuries last year and this season is going to rely on youngsters.

Umass lost their stud and is rebuilding

St B similar to Umass, but not as good

Fordham, well its Fordham. They will be better than last year, but still in the cellar.

Teams with real shot to underachieve: Dayton--obviously, RI, and X--meaning they may not win conference.

Teams with real shot to overachieve: SLU--believe it, Charlotte, GW, and ST Joe.

Wow what logic!

The "expert" picks us to be the surprise team in the conference and RM to be the A-10 Coach of the Year, all while picking us to finish lower than last year. I guess using his twisted logic, doing worse makes us a surprise team.

Having said that, if we lose 2 starters from the team (especially the two most of us won't name even tho we know who they are), we will struggle to finish in the top half of the league, even with RM at the helm.