ESPN Bubble Talk

[slu72]

Well we got mentioned, just barely. One promising note, if we win next two, they said it might be hard for the committee to ignore us. Hard maybe but easy to ignore as well to my way of thinking. Maybe 2 ws to close and a nice run to the tourney final might do it, still doubtful, but just might. I don't see where even that kind of run gets our RPI to the point where it warrants a selection as schools with lower ones would be howling.

[brianstl]

Root for the Illini to lose to Wisconson. That should clear a spot out for someone.

[slu72]

Root for the Illini to lose to Wisconson. That should clear a spot out for someone.

UW shouldn't have a problem. Big 12's getting 7 maybe 8. BE's the killer... 5 locks and 4 or 5 strong maybes w/ UL, MU, CT, SH, and ND. Jeez, 10 teams. I don't see it, but who knows. Really, it's all moot at this point. We've just got to find a way to win these next 2. Starts tonite.

[cheeseman]

UW shouldn't have a problem. Big 12's getting 7 maybe 8. BE's the killer... 5 locks and 4 or 5 strong maybes w/ UL, MU, CT, SH, and ND. Jeez, 10 teams. I don't see it, but who knows. Really, it's all moot at this point. We've just got to find a way to win these next 2. Starts tonite.

I will believe it when I see it that the B12 gets 8.

[cheesycow]

UW shouldn't have a problem. Big 12's getting 7 maybe 8. BE's the killer... 5 locks and 4 or 5 strong maybes w/ UL, MU, CT, SH, and ND. Jeez, 10 teams. I don't see it, but who knows. Really, it's all moot at this point. We've just got to find a way to win these next 2. Starts tonite.

ND-UCONN tonight could be a play-in game of sorts.

[bonwich]

My Badgers will set the table for my Billikens. Count on it.

[TheChosenOne]

I will believe it when I see it that the B12 gets 8.

The Big 12 will likely get 7 teams in and it looks like those 7 are fairly solid at this point with Kansas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor, Texas, Missouri, and Oklahoma State.

[brianstl]

The Big 12 will likely get 7 teams in and it looks like those 7 are fairly solid at this point with Kansas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor, Texas, Missouri, and Oklahoma State.

The Big 12 deserves 7. The conference was loaded this year.

[Quality Is Job 1]

The Big 12 deserves 7. The conference was loaded this year.

Okay, so why doesn't the A-10 "deserve" four or five this year? (Yeah, I know, they say they don't give conferences "slots.")

[kshoe]

Okay, so why doesn't the A-10 "deserve" four or five this year? (Yeah, I know, they say they don't give conferences "slots.")

The Big 12 deserves 7 because 7 teams have proved themselves to be in the top 40 at-large candidates with their performance all season.

Only 3 teams have proven it from the A-10 all year. Dayton and RI can still get in if they win out during the regular season and/or make a deep tourney run, but otherwise it will be, and should be, only 3.

[SShoe]

The Big 12 deserves 7 because 7 teams have proved themselves to be in the top 40 at-large candidates with their performance all season.

Only 3 teams have proven it from the A-10 all year. Dayton and RI can still get in if they win out during the regular season and/or make a deep tourney run, but otherwise it will be, and should be, only 3.

Right, there's too much talk about how many bids a conference "gets", as if the committee is allocating bids by conferences. Teams earn their bids, not conferences.

[moytoy12]

Right, there's too much talk about how many bids a conference "gets", as if the committee is allocating bids by conferences. Teams earn their bids, not conferences.

Really (not sarcastic)? I mean, you hear the committee and its representatives say this line a lot, but I just don't know if I believe them.

You and your brother seem to know more about this than I, but my initial response is that I don't believe that. I think somewhere down the road conference affiliation influences the committee's decision on certain teams.

[kshoe]

Really (not sarcastic)? I mean, you hear the committee and its representatives say this line a lot, but I just don't know if I believe them.

You and your brother seem to know more about this than I, but my initial response is that I don't believe that. I think somewhere down the road conference affiliation influences the committee's decision on certain teams.

Sure, conference affiliation could break ties or you could find an odd exception but the reality is the Pac 10 is only going to get one bid if Cal wins their tourney. This is a BCS conference that typically sends 4+ teams.

p.s. I do believe that in rare times the committee has kept teams out because of their conference affiliation (i.e. Missouri St. in 2004) and that ties typically go to the bigger name schools from bigger conferences. But there is no rule that conference XYZ has to get a certain number of bids.

[SShoe]

Really (not sarcastic)? I mean, you hear the committee and its representatives say this line a lot, but I just don't know if I believe them.

You and your brother seem to know more about this than I, but my initial response is that I don't believe that. I think somewhere down the road conference affiliation influences the committee's decision on certain teams.

I think generally speaking, yes, they don't just give conferences bids. Sure, there may be some fudging of the lines when it comes to giving a Big East team the benefit of the doubt vs. an A-10 or MVC team, but overall, I think it's about the teams. I just don't see it as strictly caps and quotas, which some seem to think is the case.

[moytoy12]

I think generally speaking, yes, they don't just give conferences bids. Sure, there may be some fudging of the lines when it comes to giving a Big East team the benefit of the doubt vs. an A-10 or MVC team, but overall, I think it's about the teams. I just don't see it as strictly caps and quotas, which some seem to think is the case.

Good points, I'd tend to agree with this (and Kshoe's post).

[cheeseman]

Sure, conference affiliation could break ties or you could find an odd exception but the reality is the Pac 10 is only going to get one bid if Cal wins their tourney. This is a BCS conference that typically sends 4+ teams.

p.s. I do believe that in rare times the committee has kept teams out because of their conference affiliation (i.e. Missouri St. in 2004) and that ties typically go to the bigger name schools from bigger conferences. But there is no rule that conference XYZ has to get a certain number of bids.

That year with SMS - they played themselves out of the tourney by losing early in the MVC tourney and by having Bradley go deep - they have only themselves to blame for their fate.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Sure, conference affiliation could break ties or you could find an odd exception but the reality is the Pac 10 is only going to get one bid if Cal wins their tourney. This is a BCS conference that typically sends 4+ teams.

p.s. I do believe that in rare times the committee has kept teams out because of their conference affiliation (i.e. Missouri St. in 2004) and that ties typically go to the bigger name schools from bigger conferences. But there is no rule that conference XYZ has to get a certain number of bids.

Don't count on the Pac-10 only getting 1 team. My opinion is that the Pac-10 will for sure get 2 teams, and has about a 50:50 chance of getting 3 teams.

1. I don't think Cal will win the Pac-10 Tournament at Staples Center in LA, which will be a de facto UCLA home court.

2. Right now Arizona State (RPI 53) is the second team out per the RPI. Don't believe that because per the RPI, Dayton and Rhode Island are in, and I don't think that is the case, at least not both of them.

3. Washington has talent. I could see either Washington or UCLA (de facto home court) emerging with the Pac-10's automatic bid, and Cal (for sure) and Arizona State (more dicey) getting at larges.

I know the Pac-10 has had a bad season overall and is only the 8th ranked conference. But there will be powerful forces at work, and UCLA's Dan Guerrero is the Chairman of that NCAA Tournament Committee. ...

[cheeseman]

Don't count on the Pac-10 only getting 1 team. My opinion is that the Pac-10 will for sure get 2 teams, and has about a 50:50 chance of getting 3 teams.

1. I don't think Cal will win the Pac-10 Tournament at Staples Center in LA, which will be a de facto UCLA home court.

2. Right now Arizona State (RPI 53) is the second team out per the RPI. Don't believe that because per the RPI, Dayton and Rhode Island are in, and I don't think that is the case, at least not both of them.

3. Washington has talent. I could see either Washington or UCLA (de facto home court) emerging with the Pac-10's automatic bid, and Cal (for sure) and Arizona State (more dicey) getting at larges.

I know the Pac-10 has had a bad season overall and is only the 8th ranked conference. But there will be powerful forces at work, and UCLA's Dan Guerrero is the Chairman of that NCAA Tournament Committee. ...

I hope you are wrong - giving the 8th ranked conf 3 bids but giving the 6th ranked conf 3 also makes no sense.

[kshoe]

Don't count on the Pac-10 only getting 1 team. My opinion is that the Pac-10 will for sure get 2 teams, and has about a 50:50 chance of getting 3 teams.

1. I don't think Cal will win the Pac-10 Tournament at Staples Center in LA, which will be a de facto UCLA home court.

2. Right now Arizona State (RPI 53) is the second team out per the RPI. Don't believe that because per the RPI, Dayton and Rhode Island are in, and I don't think that is the case, at least not both of them.

3. Washington has talent. I could see either Washington or UCLA (de facto home court) emerging with the Pac-10's automatic bid, and Cal (for sure) and Arizona State (more dicey) getting at larges.

I know the Pac-10 has had a bad season overall and is only the 8th ranked conference. But there will be powerful forces at work, and UCLA's Dan Guerrero is the Chairman of that NCAA Tournament Committee. ...

If anybody besides Cal gets an at-large bid from the Pac-10 then we will know this whole thing is rigged. You way overstate their chances of multiple bids, much less 3.

By the way, aren't your points 1 and 3 above really the same thing (i.e. Cal won't win the tourney)?

[Bizziken]

Arizona State is absolute garbage! Their best OOC win was vs. San Diego State, their next best win was actually a LOSS at duke by 11...

If they get an at large bid, I'm going to boycott the tournament!

[Postcard]

Arizona State is absolute garbage! Their best OOC win was vs. San Diego State, their next best win was actually a LOSS at duke by 11...

If they get an at large bid, I'm going to boycott the tournament!

I don't think we need to worry. I think Bay Area is looking through those Pac 10 glasses. No way they get 3. I suppose they could get two but we'll see.

[Bay Area Billiken]

If anybody besides Cal gets an at-large bid from the Pac-10 then we will know this whole thing is rigged. You way overstate their chances of multiple bids, much less 3.

By the way, aren't your points 1 and 3 above really the same thing (i.e. Cal won't win the tourney)?

I see your point re my points 1 and 3, except ASU could also win that Pac-10 Tournament, as could any number of other teams. I will be surpised, not shocked, but surprised, if Cal wins that Pac-10 Tournament.

I am not much of a Pac-10 fan or defender, as I would support the WCC over the Pac-10, and I most definitely support SLU and the A-10 over the Pac-10, or anyone else. But I also can see reality.

The Pac-10 is a major BCS conference, and the NCAA Tournament Committee Chairman is the UCLA AD.

Looking at the RPI, there's Arizona State sitting there at RPI 53, with a record of 20-9, 10-6 in the Pac-10, good for 2nd Place in the league, the 2nd team out of the NCAA per the RPI.

And there's Washington at 19-9, 9-7, RPI 56, 3rd Place in the league, the 5th team out per the RPI.

Along with Cal (RPI 21 and an NCAA lock), right there the Pac-10 has 3 potential NCAA teams.

Now what happens if UCLA wins that Pac-10 Tournament at Staples Center in LA and literally steals the Pac-10's automatic bid? The Pac-10 could actually have 4 NCAA bids, although my opinion is that the NCAA will give the Pac-10 3 NCAA bids, and in that scenario would have to pick between ASU and UW. Yes, I know that the NCAA says it doesn't pick by conferences. And if anyone actually believes that when it comes to the BCS leagues, then perhaps a bid should be made on the Golden Gate Bridge.

The NCAA could easily pick ASU and Washington over say Dayton and URI. And we can add St. Mary's (RPI 45) and Wichita State (RPI 50) to that list of suspects too.

And we still hear about Virginia Tech (RPI 52), Notre Dame (RPI 68) and even Illinois (RPI 72).

Now add to this the inevitable upsets in the mid-majors. NCAA bubble teams need Butler (RPI 17) to hold serve in the Horizon, where it has fallen before, Gonzaga (RPI 37) in the WCC, Northern Iowa (RPI 20) in the wide open MVC, and even Old Dominion (RPI 39) in the Colonial, and Siena (RPI 40) in the MAAC. If any of them lose in their conference tournaments, NCAA at large bids for others disappear, with the only possible exceptions being that Old Dominion and Siena might not get NCAA at larges. And add to that Utah State (RPI 32) in the WAC.

[Bay Area Billiken]

I don't think we need to worry. I think Bay Area is looking through those Pac 10 glasses. No way they get 3. I suppose they could get two but we'll see.

I don't wear Pac-10 glasses. I'm with you guys. If you only knew what it is like to be surrounded by all these Old Blues from Cal, when you know in your heart that SLU is really better than those Golden Bears.

Cal leads the RPI in protests. What does Cal know about sports? Coach Montgomery had to (successfully) beg and plead in the media last week to get full houses at the 2 games against the Arizona schools last week.

As a former Golden Bear cheerleader once told me, "But we're an academic school, Mr. (Bay Area Billiken)."

The Pac-10 has been getting ripped pretty good by the Left Coast Media.

However, I'm a Doubting Thomas on the Pac-10 only getting 1 bid.

I see 2 for sure, and maybe 3 NCAA bids coming out of the Pac-10.

[Postcard]

I don't wear Pac-10 glasses. I'm with you guys. If you only knew what it is like to be surrounded by all these Old Blues from Cal, when you know in your heart that SLU is really better than those Golden Bears.

The Pac-10 has been getting ripped pretty good by the Left Coast Media.

However, I'm a Doubting Thomas on the Pac-10 only getting 1 bid.

I see 2 for sure, and maybe 3 NCAA bids coming out of the Pac-10.

I just don't see either of these teams getting a bid. There are too many teams in front of them that are more deserving and I don't see them making up ground in the next week.

Per ESPN Bubble Watch:

Washington [19-9 (9-7), RPI: 53, SOS: 58] The Huskies remain a fringe bubble candidate at best after beating Washington State 59-52 on the road Saturday. With a 2-6 record in true road games and a middling computer profile, the Huskies will probably have to win the Pac-10 tournament to make the NCAA field. The Huskies have a couple of RPI top-50 wins, beating Texas A&M (home) and Cal (home). But Washington has very little else to show from Pac-10 play, other than so-so home victories over Arizona State and Arizona. The Huskies are 2-2 against RPI top-50 opponents and 6-5 against the top 100. They have four losses to teams that are ranked No. 100 or worse in the RPI ratings, and 13 of their 19 victories came against teams that are ranked No. 128 or worse. The Huskies close the regular season at Oregon on Thursday night and at Oregon State on Saturday.

Arizona State [20-9 (10-6), RPI: 54, SOS: 74] The Sun Devils' best chance at landing an NCAA at-large bid probably required them to win a share of the Pac-10 regular-season championship. Instead, Arizona State lost to California for the second time this season. The Sun Devils have one victory over an RPI top-50 opponent, defeating San Diego State 55-52 at home on Dec. 19. They have only two other wins over RPI top-100 foes, beating Washington (home) and Arizona (road). The Sun Devils are 1-5 against RPI top-50 opponents and 3-7 against the top 100. Arizona State closes the regular season with home games against USC on Thursday and UCLA on Saturday. Unless the Sun Devils win the Pac-10 tournament, they are probably bound for the NIT.

[Bay Area Billiken]

I just don't see either of these teams getting a bid. There are too many teams in front of them that are more deserving and I don't see them making up ground in the next week.

Cal leads the RPI in protests. What does Cal know about sports? Coach Montgomery had to (successfully) beg and plead in the media last week to get full houses at the 2 games against the Arizona schools last week.

As a former Golden Bear cheerleader once told me, "But we're an academic school, Mr. (Bay Area Billiken)."

So for what it's worth, based upon my observations of 25 years out here, my opinion is that Cal will not win the Pac-10 Tournament. As I often tell the Old Blues, "Cal is Cal," and they all know exactly what I mean.

Now this being said, I hope I'm wrong about what the NCAA does vis-a-vis the Pac-10 on Selection Sunday.

But if Cal falls in that Pac-10 Tournament, at least 2 NCAA bids come from the Pac-10 this year.