Jump to content

The Wiz

Billikens.com Donor
  • Posts

    3,395
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    32

Posts posted by The Wiz

  1. Painful game to lose ...also a strange game.....painful because it was strange....Strange because we lost after the clock stopped (hold that thought)....Strange because nearly all the numbers matched....Here are just some of those numbers

    ....................SLU.......Mass

    FG%.............51%......52%

    3P%.............37%......35%...we stopped them here...good job

    FG/FGA.......30-59...29-56......1 extra shot made

    3P/3PA........7-19.......7-20....... shots made.... even...another plus

    Rebs.............31............30...fail...they made the expected number... we were 8 short....their baskets made would have been less (or maybe a few extra baskets for us) if we had grabbed  8 more rebs.

    2nd chance pts...13.........12.......

    Pts off TOs..........13........14

    Lead change...........26 times

    Score tied ...............15 times

    I could go on but you get the idea...everything was extremely tight....are you still holding the thought from above?  the one that said...we lost after the clock stopped....FTs......Our  strongest suit ...our strength....Our FT % was 90% (18-20) ...well, that's great even for a good FT shooting team. They shot 78% (26-33 not bad and better than they usually do...so what happened?  They had 13 extra FTA ...13  x  78% = 10 pts...take 10 off their score and we not only win but pretty much make the spread.  It wasn't just that they had the extra 13 FTA...BUT... they were 13 FTA above their season average.  Also, the 91 pts was 13 pts over their season average...you take off 10 pts and they are at a much more normal PPG ...within 3.

    So what does all this mean?...It means that this game was an outlier...a freak ...something out of the ordinary that allowed them to win...something that probably won't happen to them again this season.  (68% extra FTAs)   It means that the only way they could beat us would be for something weird or out of the ordinary to happen. And it did.  Looking at the stats you would think that a stat outlier would be something like Mass shooting 75% from the arc or The Bills having 25 TOs.  But no,  tonight it was FTAs.

    Bottom line....Unless lightning strikes in the same spot (or they bring their own refs), we should win on Sunday.

     

  2. 6 hours ago, someoneelse said:

    Does that move the Wiz Prediction line?

    Now that we know Linssen is available ....now is the time to answer the question ...will that move the Prediction line?...There is a rust factor that the computer builds in...  ie if you are out more than 2 weeks  then you have rust....So the answer still remains no movement in the spread ...the model is expecting him to score 5 pts or less and 2 rebs or less...if he does more than that in both categories than that would be a needle mover.

  3. 38 minutes ago, someoneelse said:

    Does that move the Wiz Prediction line?

    I ran it again today  .using conservative numbers plus a possibility of Linssen returning ... may be a game time decision...and the spread still comes to 5.

    The X factor in this game will be the UMass 3P shooting... If they get hot, we could be in trouble,  but if we can disrupt them like RI did we can win by double digits. Remember,   they have no defense...we need to take advantage of that.

  4. Chance to Dance
     
    SLU...52%...up
     
    Dav...53%...up
    VCU...50%...dn
    Day...49%....new
    No other A-10 teams that are at least 40%
    SLU and Dav up 1%...both did what they were supposed to do...VCU takes a hit after a pounding by the Bonnies ...down 7%. And Dayton's meaningful win over us pushes them into the picture....4 teams all around  50% ...Which means as of Jan 16 it looks like 2 teams will get in.
     
    This brings us to part 1 of a 2 game series with UMass...Thur is a key game,  the more difficult of the 2 because we start there.  A win at UMass probably means a sweep. But as you can see by the spread, this will by no means be an easy game.   The theme for this game will be ....It's all about the 3s.   UMass comes in as one of the top shooting  teams ITN ...#3.  They will be dropping bombs all night...They are 5th ITN in 3PM....45% of all their shots are 3s...they make only slightly more of their 2s than 3s...46%/41%.   But there is good news too.  UMass will be the worst team we face this year on defense. We will have plenty of open looks ..we just need to make shots  ...btw, they don't rebound.  Their philosophy will be ...we plan on winning by outscoring you in a high scoring game.
     
    Let's get to the report card and see what's happening...
     
    ...................SLU.....................Mass..........................SLU.........................Mass

    .................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

    PPG...............A........................B+...........................B-..............................F- 17th WITN

    FG%...............B.......................C.............................B.................................F- 6th WITN

    3Pt%.............A-.......................A+...3rd ITN...........B+..............................F

    FT%...............A.......................B.................................................................

    Reb...............A-......................D-..............................A-.............................C

     OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

    UP....Off...Reb.....Def.....PPG...FG%...3P%...Reb...a clean sweep on D ..all categories up

    Down....Off...PPG.....Def...none

    Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN

    FTM/gm....The Bills...3rd...dn

    FTA/gm....The Bills....9th....dn

    FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...4th...dn

    Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

    SLU

    Assts...Collins... 2nd... unch

    Stls......Collins....33rd....up...big jump from 66th

    FT%...Jimerson...71st ...dn...22 place drop for missing only 1 FT...no mercy for FT shooters

    Blks...Okoro...82nd...dn

    Mass

    Assts...Fernandes...28th

     

    Injury/ Illness

    Linssen...Ques for Thur...Ankle and Protocols...1/15/22......If he has no symptoms and his ankle improves  he may play...At this time it is undetermined whether he will face UMass

    Courtney...Out Indefinitely ...Illness...1/15/22...No date for return has been established.

    Mass

    CJ Kelly..Ques for Thur...Knee...1/ 15/22...has missed 2 games due to knee swelling...unknown at this time whether he will face us.

    Santos...Ques for Thur...undisclosed injury...1/15/22...has missed 4 games...undetermined whether he will face us.

    Walker...Out for season....Leg...1/6/22...Femur injury

    At this point , now that you have seen the report card , I would like to take a quick time out.  The computer has asked me to do a short rant for it.  There seems to be a discrepancy between what it is cranking out and what some board members perceive.  Some here think we have a horrible team and we have no Chance to Dance..in fact we shouldn't even show up because we are an embarrassment. Meanwhile the computer pours over data and says ...WHAT?...The difference between the board member and the computer is that some board members are looking at only the Bills through a microscope...The computer pours through the data of 358 teams   and says... Wow, this is a pretty good team... On offense we are only 1 letter grade away from the honor roll (Straight As)...We need 1 more basket every other game and we reach elite status (top 15% of all teams).... Meanwhile we have reached honorable mention on defense (Straight Bs) which puts us in the top 30% of all teams. In the A-10 , the computer doesn't see anybody that will dominate...our chances to Dance are as good as anybody.  This rant doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement...There is ...especially on TOs ...The computer sees this as an area that can derails us...also inconsistency ..the inability to make our numbers all the time because of wild swings in different categories.  Finally, the difference between me and the computer is I can take 1 paragraph to rant  ...the computer would take 300 pages (all numbers) and if anyone disagreed with it  it would crank out another 300.  I just punch in Go Bills and it shuts down....Rant over ...we now return to the UMass report....

    Keys to the game... The keys is the 3s....We will need to use all of that B+   3P defense to contain them from the arc....If CJ Kelly (there are 2 Kellys) doesn't play it will be a minus for for Mass as he is one of their gunners. The bad news is even if he doesn't play they have 3 or 4 others that can pop from the arc....3 key players to watch ...Fernandes...leads the team in PPG...Assts...FG%...Stls... Buttrick...Reb and Blks ....R Kelly (no relation)...52% from 3....18th ITN

    WWN2D2W....Since we don't know if CJ Kelly will play let's do this...hold their top 3 scorers to 33 pts.......48/38/77...we will have some good looks...make the shots.......80 pts...this is doable against a bad D...the closer we get to 80 pts the better our chances will be to win....keep TO to 11...they will not force TOs .  Fham was a B+ in forcing TOs ...UMass is a D+ ... if we have a high number of TOs then that is on us. ...Reb ...win the battle by 8+...this is an important stat...the last thing we want to do is give them extra chances.

    Bottom line...We are the better team ..on offense and defense.  A win at Mass is worth 2 as we will be favored by much more than 5  coming back with a victory....Let's make short work of them...It should only take a Minute Man.

  5. First a trivia question....Why would a team that was losing by 16 pts with 36 seconds left in the game intentionally foul?  Because they wanted to mess up The Wiz's perfect spread.

    On a more serious note, I wanted to start off the post game analysis with some excerpts from a thread I created earlier this week....WWN2D2W ...I think they are apropos in light of today's  game.

    What do we need to do to win this season?

    We need consistency.

    This Sat  we will play Fordham...not the greatest in the conference. We will have a double digit spread in our favor.  We can win by doing less because Fordham is less of a team...BUT that doesn't mean we should.   We need to make our numbers regardless of the opponent. If we make our numbers we will win 95% of the games..

    How do you develop consistency?  Focus...play basketball for a full 40 min, leave nothing on the table...Confidence...You can play basketball at a high level all the time...and Teamwork...where the sum of the parts is greater than the whole.

    And inconsistent we were today.  But in the end, while it wasn't pretty, we did make our numbers.   And where we missed, we made up for it elsewhere...which is why we made the spread. You may say, we were horrible...  but we did what we were supposed to do. We didn't just win but we won by the right margin.

    Let's see what happened today....bolded statements are from the original post in this thread.

    Make the slash...48/ 38/ 77...if we do, we will win... Actual  45/50/77... This translates into the following ....we made one extra 3 and missed one extra 2...FTs were  right on the money....variance 1 extra pt....So we did what did what we were supposed to do...just not smoothly.

    Out rebound them by 3... We did and then some...48  to 26...This stat was a game saver...This helped offset the next set of numbers.

    Win the TO battle by at least 1... This was a disaster. We lost the TO battle 20-10... There is an old adage in baseball ...give up 10 walks and you will lose most games.... 20 TOs is similar to giving up 10 walks ...It is almost a sure loss. ...except we didn't lose this game. Why? Reason 1...Points off of TOs...for Fham...12 pts...for SLU...9 pts...We had 10 extra TOs yet the Rams only scored 3 pts extra pts...This was huge in letting us equalize those extra  TOs...Was it poor play by Fham or our excellent defense? We played pretty well  on defense...Rams slash...28.6/ 25/50...I will say it was our good D.  But neutralizing the extra TOs would have just made it a close game...we won by 18...What else happened?...Reason 2...as mentioned above we had 22 more Rebs than they did...That's a lot of extra rebs... enough to create an extra 18 pts.

    Hold Quisenberry and Chuba to 25pts...Actual...23Pts...Bingo...we have a winner...There is that good defense.

    The Rams are now essentially a 2 player team...Quissenberry and Chuba....After that ...all the rest of the players are averaging 2 PPG or less  and less than 10 min/gm..... another Bingo...The rest of the players averaged 2.75pts and the bench average play was 7 min.


    We need to hold them as a team to under 70 pts...given their circumstances  it should be closer to 60pts...Defense again....see Rams  slash above... we shut them down and held the spread.

    If we Rubba Chuba out, we can be Ram tough and win....We did Rubba him out...What I didn't mention in the original post was he came into the game shooting 53%...we held him to 31%...Great job.

    Finally ...Grats to Okoro  with another double -double and Jones who missed a d-d by 1 pt...still 10 rebs is amazing.

    Again, it wasn't pretty , but I will take wins on every game like that... especially by 18 pts.

  6. 16 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

    This is the best 3 pt shooting Davidson team since they've been in the A10.  They're 42% from 3.  Crazy.

    Dav...2nd ITN...41.9%

    UMass...3rd ITN...40.7%

    Last 3 games UMass...43.7%.....Dav...39%

  7. 3 hours ago, Littlebill said:

    Yep. This one should have been a rout even if Daye was playing. I know Fordham isn't as bad as they usually are, but this is still a team outside the top 150

    Before Daye quit For was a C- team....With his departure this takes them back to D where they have been for quite awhile.

  8. 48 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

    I'd imagine Josh Colon gets more minutes with Daye gone.  He's the guy currently averaging 15 mins, but averaged almost 30 mins last season.  He's 5'10" compared to Daye 6'3", so I do think there defense may suffer with less size.  Daye led the team in scoring, but also led them in assists at 3.3 per game.  Colon is 6th on the team in assists 1.2 this season, but was 2nd with 2.8 last season.  Colon is more of a 3pt threat than Daye, but Daye was much better finishing at the rim & drawing fouls.

    I know Fordham has played a zone in the past against us, but I'm not sure what Neptune is running this year.  If they play man, I'd imagine Colon will guard Collins because he's doesn't have enough size for other guys.  That's a huge advantage for SLU vs having a bigger guard on Yuri.  It's also a big advantage not having to defend Daye because Daye was really good at drawing fouls.

    We need to absolutely crush Fordham to boost our NET.  No mercy & no letting up if we get up big.  I'm fine getting starters some rest, but the subs shouldn't be in there just running clock.

    Colon will not only get more minutes but he will probably start and therein lies the problem...In addition to Colon they will start Chuba, Quisenberry, Charlton and Rose.  After that ...all the rest of the players are averaging 2 PPG or less  and less than 10 min/gm.

    Strategy...Run on them...mid way through the second half blow it open....Anytime there is a substitution...blow it open...

  9. 44 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

    SLU needs to enhance its "adjusted efficiency rating," a key component of the NET.  Per The Wiz, a big margin of victory helps there.  I'm not sure if the margin of victory enhancement cuts off at 10 points, or goes beyond that.

    There is no more scoring margin...it is hidden in the NET Efficiency rating....the largest component of the NET ratings....The 10 pt limit was under the old system... now you can run the score up as much as you want and it helps your overall rating.  It is what allowed a team like Colgate to be a Top 10 team last year. The Selection committee prays that these "mistakes"  will all get auto bids (which Colgate did) and the Committee won't have to suffer the embarrassment of "fixing" things. 

  10. 12 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

    Fordham goes six deep, meaning double digit minutes.  Two more players have been in all but one game. (Covid might mess up any straight comparison of games played.)  Ten players have been in 10 or more games (of 14 played).

    Four starters average over 30 minutes and a fifth 28.  So staying out of foul trouble is critical to the Rams.  Fordham is listed as 2.3 years of experience.  We are at 2.1 years of experience, so pretty even there.

    Fordham currently has 3 players averaging 30+ min/gm...1 player with 28...1 with 15min and all the rest with under 10.....

    No Depth= Trouble

  11. Chance to Dance
     
    SLU...51%...dn
     
    VCU...57%...unch
    Dav...50%...dn
    No other A-10 teams that are at least 40%
     
    Well the big news is Fordham loses their top player...Daye.  He leaves tonight for personal reasons.  A huge blow to For...the equivalent to The Bills losing Perkins except worse because For doesn't really have any depth. This is a shame for the Rams...In the preconference analysis, I mentioned that For was the most improved team in the A-10.  Now that is lost and they are back where they have been for years...bottom feeders. Daye got the winning shot on Wed against Duq. To make matters worse they will have no time to make any adjustments as they leave for St. Louis on Fri.  The thread title reads 16 pts but it could be a lot more.  The Rams are now essentially a 2 player team...Quissenberry and Chuba Ohams...who for the rest of this post will be only known as Chuba.
     
    Let's get to the report card and see what's happening...
     
    ...................SLU.....................For..........................SLU.........................For

    .................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

    PPG...............A........................C+...........................C..............................C

    FG%...............B.......................D-............................C+............................C

    3Pt%.............A-.......................D-...........................B..............................B

    FT%...............A.......................B-.................................................................

    Reb...............B+......................B..............................B+.............................D

     OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

    UP....Off....3P%...Reb.....Def......none

    Down....Off...Reb.....Def...FG%...3P%

    Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN

    FTM/gm....The Bills...2nd...dn

    FTA/gm....The Bills....6th....dn

    FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...3rd...dn

    FTA / Offensive play...The Bills........9th...dn

    Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

    SLU

    Assts...Collins... 2nd... unch

    Stls......Collins....66th....dn

    FT%...Jimerson...49th ...up

    Blks...Okoro...68th...up

    For

    Reb...Chuba...4th

    Blks...Chuba...36th

    Injury/ Illness

    Linssen...Ques for Sat...Ankle...1/11/22...it is undecided if he will face For

    Courtney...Ques for Sat...Illness...1/11/22...it is unclear if he will be ready to play against For

     

    As you can see the offensive numbers for For were weak to start...now you can just take those grades and drop them down a letter. Defense will stay about the same with fill-ins.

    Keys to the game

    We need to get offensive and I don't mean that in a bad way.   We need to make shots.... Chuba translates into Rebs and Blks...we need to control him.

    WWN2D2W....

    Make the slash...48/ 38/ 77...if we do, we will win.  Out rebound them by 3...Win the TO battle by at least 1...Hold Quisenberry and Chuba to 25pts...We need to hold them as a team to under 70 pts...given their circumstances  it should be closer to 60pts.  

    Bottom line...

    We need to win this game...BIG.  No excuses ...just do it....If we Rubba Chuba out, we can be Ram tough and win.

  12. What WNeed 2 Do 2 Win.

    For those that follow me, this is a familiar sight. It is at the bottom of every spread thread, I write.  It refers to the specifics of that particular game and what we have to do to win it....FG% , Rebs, TOs etc...Make those numbers and we will win 95% of the time.. In fact not only will we win,  but we will make the spread.

    This thread though is not about a specific game. This thread is about the season.  What do we need to do to win the season?

    What will it take to win the conference? What will it take to get a bid?  What do we need to reach those goals?  We need consistency. We have a team that came within 2 seconds of beating the 4th rated team ITN. That says to me, we are not lacking in anything except consistency.  We have had in specific games... over 50 rebs ...less than 10 TOs...last night we shot 56% from the arc....we have shot over 50% FG% a few times...96% FTs (25-26) etc.  I could continue to list stats to the bottom of the page as to why we are a good team.  Unfortunately. we have also reb under 30 in a game,... TOs of 19.....FG% of  under 40% ...3P% in the low 20s. Needless to say , the first set of numbers are all A+....the 2nd set are all F-.  That is quite a spread. What is the issue?...consistency.

    Bill James, the father of Sabremetrics (the mathematical and statistical analysis of sports teams) said that the difference between championship teams and teams that finish out of the money is that the winning teams are 5% better than the losing teams. So does that mean they win 5% more games than the others. No, it means they are 5% better every game and therefore have the possibility of beating every team they play  every game. The Bills don't need to play at a superhuman level. They don't need to shoot 56% from the arc every game.  They need to shoot Bills numbers ...good numbers that they can do all the time....50/38/ 77. ...Rebs around 40...TOs 11. And they need to do all things all games.  This is not a basketball smorgasbord where you can pick and choose.   You need to to do all things well(not perfect) all the time...with little variance. 

    This Sat  we will play Fordham...not the greatest in the conference. We will have a double digit spread in our favor.  We can win by doing less because Fordham is less of a team...BUT that doesn't mean we should.   We need to make our numbers regardless of the opponent. If we make our numbers we will win 95% of the games.. We will beat  the good teams (good for the selection committee) and run the score up on the bad teams,  which for the NET followers, is a good thing  for our NET efficiency rating.

    One last thing...How do you develop consistency?  Focus...play basketball for a full 40 min, leave nothing on the table...Confidence...You can play basketball at a high level all the time...and Teamwork...where the sum of the parts is greater than the whole.

     

     

  13. A tough loss because this was a winnable game.

    Let's take a look and see what happened.  Bolded phrases are from my original post.

    Their home field advantage is best in the A-10 with an added 4.72 pts....This wasn't the only reason we lost but it matches up nicely with the even spread and a 5 pt loss.

    TOs ...We need to make sure they have more TOs than us by forcing them to turn it over....We didn't...lost the TO battle 15-12...We also have to protect the ball...we didn't... the main issue is that we not get careless and give it away...we did...4+ TO diff and we win....instead we had 3 extra TOs  and lost...so what does this mean?...we get 10pts on TOs...they get 17 pts on TOs...7pt diff in a 5 pt loss

    46/36/77...actual slash 42/ 56/83...this is actual worse than it looks...the actual 2P% shooting was 36%...44.5%  or less is F-....we needed 3 more 2PM to get up to F-....6pts in a 5pt loss.

    They will try to keep the score low...score at least 70....the more we go over 70 the better chance we have to win. ....needed 7 more pts in a 5 pt loss

    Hold Holmes, Camara and Smith to 24pts. ...we fell a little short here ...they scored 30....6pts  extra in a 5pt loss

    we need to beat them on the boards even if it is just by 1. ...reb was weak...we lost the reb battle 34-28...3 extra Off rebs and 3 extra Def rebs for Day...whether that meant 3 extra chances for them or 3 extra for us ...let's look at 2nd chance pts ...Day 11pts..The Bills...2pts....9 extra pts for Day in a 5 pt loss.

    And that's why this was a tough loss...not just 1 chance to win but many.

    But it wasn't all gloom and doom...we saw the return of the 3 pt bomb led by Jimerson (23pts) and Hargrove(14pts) who had a stunning shooting night from the arc combining for  78% (7-9)...Okoro got 8 reb and Yuri got 9 assists....again these were all good things ...we just needed 1 more good thing ....choose from the list above.

    Dayton did not win this game...we lost it.   Can we fix 1 of the above by Feb 5 ( Flyers  at the Fetz that day) ?  If the answer is yes , then we will win...if we fix more than 1 thing, we can whup them.

     

  14.  
    Chance to Dance
     
    The Bills...52%...dn
    VCU..........57%...up
    Dav...........51%....dn
     
    Yes, we slipped back a little on the Dance Chance.   Also, we slipped a little on our grade...Back to B+....Why? ...A closer than expected win at home against a B team.    A win against Day will fix Dance Chance and our grade.
     
    Just the same, it was still a great win against a very tough Iona  defense.  If you want to know the how and why of that victory there is plenty to read in the post game analysis on the Iona spread thread.
     
    Next up Dayton...Day  matches our B+... thus the close game.   Day, historically, is one of the most difficult venues coming in at #48 ITN in difficulty for visiting teams....Their home field advantage is best in the A-10 with an added 4.72 pts.  And yet we are even...says a lot about the Bills.  As expected we will have no room for error.  I have added an addendum to the report card to clarify what we are up against. ...Opp def rebs  and shooting  2P%.  These 2 categories that Day excels in are closely tied together. If they make most of their shots then there are less rebs.   So we have our work cut out for us.
     
    Let's move to the report card.
     
    ....................SLU.....................Day..........................SLU.........................Day

    .................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

    PPG...............A........................D+...........................C..............................B+

    FG%...............B......................A..............................B-..............................C+

    3Pt%.............B.......................D+.............................B+.............................C

    FT%...............A......................C-.................................................................

    Reb...............A-......................C-..............................B+.............................A+ 7th ITN

    Addendum to the report card....

    Day...2P%...A+...13th ITN

    Day...Opponent Def Reb...A+...6th ITN

     OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

    UP....Off....FT%...Reb.....Def....FG%...3P%

    Down....Off...FG%...3P%.....Def...none

    Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN

    FTM/gm....The Bills...1st...up

    FTA/gm....The Bills....4th....dn

    FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...2nd...unch

    FTA / Offensive play...The Bills........5th...unch

    Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

    SLU

    Assts...Collins... 2nd... dn

    Stls......Collins....46th....dn

    Dou Dou...Collins...94th ...dn

    FT%...Jimerson...63rd ...up

    Blks...Okoro...86th

    Day

    FG%,,,Holmes...22nd

    Stls...Smith.......68th

    Assts...Smith...72nd

    Blks...Holmes...31st


    Injures/Illness

    Linssen...Ques...Ankle...1/8/21...unknown at this time if he will be ready to play  on Tues @ Dayton

    Courtney...Ques...Illness...1/8/21...unclear at this time if he will be ready to play on Tues @ Day

    Day...no injuries or illness

     Welcome to the list... Okoro as he breaks through with blocks and a big jump up for Jimerson on the FT side.  Yuri drops back to 2nd in assts but remember that he is 2nd out of all D1 players...not too shabby.  As for the report card ...offense slipped a little as was to be expected when facing a great defense. But the improvement on defense is a pleasant surprise that hopefully will continue. Good D can help make up for bad shooting nights.

    Keys to the Game

    Smith is their Yuri but to a lesser extent....Assts , stls and scoring.... plus a couple of big guys upfront... 6'10 Holmes and 6'8 Camara...lots of tip ins , dunks and put backs is what helps make them  6th ITN in 2s.  The  key to this game ...and Dayton's weakness is TOs...they are vulnerable....we need to take advantage of that while protecting the ball.  Another key is 3 pt shooting....we have an advantage over them from the arc. If we make some shots...we win

    WWN2D2W

    TOs ...We need to make sure they have more TOs than us by forcing them to turn it over. We also have to protect the ball. Smith can take some away but the main issue is that we not get careless and give it away...4+ TO diff and we win.  Rebs will be harder to come by in this game...we need to beat them on the boards even if it is just by 1.   46/36/77...make some shots especially 3s.  They will try to keep the score low...score at least 70....the more we go over 70 the better chance we have to win. Play D...like we did against Iona. If we do that ...it will also be a winner.  Hold Holmes, Camara and Smith to 24pts. 

    Bottom line...If we force some TOs  (+4), make some 3s (36%) and grab at least as many boards as they do  then we will ground the Flyers.

     

  15. 1 hour ago, Lando Griffin said:

    A couple of points here. There are some diversions that the NCAA is using...Look over here ...not there.  Nah, the NCAA would never do that.

    Take for instance , we have done away with scoring margin....What does that mean?  Doesn't that mean that scoring  margin doesn't matter anymore. You would think so . But instead they have buried it in the Net Efficiency ...the most important factor in the formula.  Want to increase your Net Eff...the easiest way is to run up the score. Well nobody is for running up the score.  So why don't we hide it under that rock labeled Net Efficiency and tell everyone we have done away with scoring margins.

    Well then how about that part about all games being equal. Well that sounds pretty good compared to that old stuff where you weight the last 10 games heavier. Well, yes the NET does weight every game equal until it doesn't. After the the NET spits out the final ranking...the Committee takes that ranking and starts to work their magic on the final 15-30 teams that are under review. One of the factors   the Committee looks at when it trying get things right (fix things---yes fix has a  double meaning here) is the final 10 games of the season....how is the team finishing...are they limping to the finish line or are they sprinting...The Committee likes sprinters.

    The NET's primary purpose is to  seed  the teams that have been selected to Dance.  If it can contribute in some small way to the selection process than that is a bonus. 

    Bottom line....The teams that understand what is going on work the NET to their advantage.

     

  16. 18 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

    it bothers me that so many are saying the billikens didnt play well if not the whole game part of the game last night.   imo, it wasnt the billikens playing bad it was just how tough iona was.   imo, the billikens should be tremendously commended for taking the punches they did, hand on and come out on top.   i am very encouraged by the game last night.  show heart doesnt even come close to describing the billikens last night. 

    I agree it was a very good win....Iona is not the best team we will play this year ...not even in the top few teams....BUT they are the best defensive  team we will face this year.  As good as they are on D,  they played over their heads according to the numbers.  Imagine a great defensive team that has a great night (well above average). That's what you saw last night.  They just kept coming at us and we didn't fold.   And that 's what made it a great win.

  17. The adjusted net efficiency(offensive efficiency-defensive efficiency= Net efficiency) is the most heavily weighted part of the of the NET formula, so running up the score can have a significant effect on NET rankings. This why you see strange stuff on the NET tracker.  For instance, last year Colgate was a top 10 NET team....Give me a break.  But Colgate usually plays a weak OOC schedule running up the scores . Then they play in the weak Patriot league again running up the scores. Playing weak teams doesn't help much but running up the score makes up for it. Our win over Iona by 1 was a wash ....a win by 7 would have helped a little...a win by 20 would have been a big help. You may not like it but that is the way the Net works.

    The Mid Majors have an advantage in the OOC as they are able to run up scores on weak opponents or beat or come close on good opponents. Once the season starts  the advantage shifts to the P5.  Where good teams are only playing good teams....6-8 bids in a conference.  Meanwhile mid majors can't make up ground because they are generally playing weaker teams. Their leagues will just get the 1 bid. Some of the higher mid majors may get an extra 1 or 2 bids to fill out the Dance card.

    If you ask the Committee, they say the NET is only a part of the process. They take the AQ first. Then take the Top 25 that didn't AQ.  Then they look at the NET for the final openings....And then they start a mysterious process where they "fix" the "mistakes" of the NET. After the deliberation, they select the final few teams ...which may or may not fit into the NET in the right places.

    BTW...I do have the Net Efficiency formula if anyone is interested.  In reality, it is something only a computer would be interested in.

×
×
  • Create New...