The Wiz
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That is what the NCAA says it is trying to prevent.
Swope mentioned in this article in the NY Times about college eligibility for athletes. He is one of 137 players seeking extra time after running out of eligibility.
If the link is blocked you should be able to google the article and it will let you read it.
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And now for our next 2 players...
Brady Dunlop and Ishan Sharma...
On Brady Dunlop there is not much to see. He played 2 seasons at St. Johns and does not have a full sample size...even if I combine the 2 seasons. So nothing to really grade out.
He has 3 issues to overcome to be successful at SLU....1) Injuries...2)Layoff...3) Limited stats...Let's look at each...
1) Injuries...In the last season he had 2 major injuries both resulting in surgeries. A UCL injury on the thumb last Dec which took about 6 weeks to heal up. Even though he healed he was never really able to test the hand in a game because he had an abdominal tear which shut him down for the rest of the season. The ab surgery was in Feb. He began light workouts in March and will be able to do full workouts starting in June. So after these 2 surgeries will he be able to preform at the same high level as beforehand. Which leads us to #2...
2) Layoffs...His last game was Dec 18 , 2024. Between Mar 2024 (end of freshman year) and Nov 2025 he will have played 165 min (10games). Not much playing time over 19 months and 2 surgeries...Will he be able to come back and preform at a high level?
3) Limited stats...The data is not just limited but erratic. In his freshman year he had a small sample size...If I had to grade that it would have been an F....His soph year ...the injury year...the data size went from small to miniscule. Again if I had to grade it ...it would have been an A. .... small sets of data at opposite ends of the spectrum.
Bottom line.... While there isn't much to go on the hope is he will be able to recover and preform at a high level given that he will have a full summer and fall to practice and get back into shape. The one really positive sign is his numbers between Freshman and Soph vastly improved. And while it is a small sample size it is still a positive trend. Final grade = H...for hopeful.
Ishan Sharma
Again a player with not a whole lot of stats. While he played 29 games, he averaged just under 13 min a game. A couple of things stand out in his stats...First he is a 3P shooter ...80% of his shots are 3P shots. Unfortunately only a third go in which grades him out at a C. Hopefully, under the Schertz system he will get better looks and take better shots and move that average up a little bit. Very doable. The second thing that stands out to me is the Asst/TO ratio....He grades out at A+ AND this is not a small sample size. Many on this board have clamored for ball handling skills and playmaking. Nothing better epitomizes those 2 attributes than the A/TO ratio. This may be the ball handler and playmaker we are looking for. This looks like a good get.
The picture is starting to clear.
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46 minutes ago, TheA_Bomb said:
How do you grade ball handling, and creating in the offense?
I think that's his primary role.
I think the go to stat on your question is Ast/TO ratio....important to ball handling and creating offense. His numbers are pretty good here...1.73...generally 1.6 to 2+ is an A. For some context ....SLU finished at 1.16...A C+. An even ratio(1-1) is a D+ . So in addition to the slash line the A/T ratio looks good and throw in 3.7 rebs and he looks very good.
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1 hour ago, CenHudDude said:
Maybe it’s a little too early in the morning for me. If his 2p% and 3p% would both be A+, why would his FG% be “only” B+?
You would think so. But that's not the way it works. This is somewhat of a quirk for a few reasons. One is the sample size for 2P shots is not full size. The second reason is the weightings of the 2 variables are disproportionate (twice as many 3PA as 2PA) . So then if you move in closer to the basket on 2s and take the same amount of shots , you will make a few more 2P shots and because of the small sample size the 2P % will move up quicker but not enough to make an A+. Finally, 2P shooters generally shoot higher % than 3P shooters and historically 3P shooters have a lower FG% because they are taking more 3s.
Bottom line...The grading of the 2 categories(2s and 3s) are done separately unlike a box score where you would add the 2 together to come up with a FG%(which is also calculated separately). You get separate grades that won't add up when put them together. I think when analyzing a player it gives you more information.
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7 hours ago, SLURadioBoy said:
SLU has contacted Furman transfer Pjay Smith, Jr.
https://x.com/247hshoops/status/1910082100268556689?s=46&t=rMmnhMrNHm9bTsU51oiTsQ
This is a little out of the box for me...ie giving a review of a player who has neither committed or visited yet BUT he has listed us as a top 5 finalist and there is something interesting in his review.
First let's look at his report card...
..........................FG%....3P%....2P%...FT%
Pjay Smith..........D+.......A+........D-.....A+
A couple of notes here ...the 2P stat is not a full sample size (about 2/3) . That is because this guy is a 3P shooter...ie he makes more 3s than 2s. Another note is his FG% and 2P% are poor because he takes a number of long 2s. He only takes about four 2s per game( he takes twice as many 3s). If he could up his 2P% he would have a pretty flashy report card. "What if"...
The computer wanted to keep going and do a "what if".... What if Pjay had played under Schertz last year? Here is what his report card would have looked like....
..........................FG%....3P%....2P%...FT%
Pjay Smith..........B+.......A+......A+.......A+
The computer took Pjay's shot chart and the average Schertz shot chart and overlaid it on to Pj's. It took away the long 2s and that small change not only changed his report card but upped his average from 17.6 to 18.6 PPG. It showed he made an extra 2 every other game. A very small change but a big difference.
Who knows whether he will sign with us but the point is that Schertz doesn't need the best players...He needs the right players. Players that can fit into his system. The "what if" also showed his assist total going up too. The "what if" example shows how Schertz can fix players and what the results might look like.
Bottom line...This guy would be a good get...but even more important is that it is all about finding the right players.
- BuiltFordBills, billikenbill, Zink and 3 others
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2 hours ago, SluSignGuy said:
Dumb luck, and I beat the Wiz by picking one more first-round game correctly than he did.
As I cannot give myself more reactions as a prize, all Billikens.com users get 3 more reactions in a collective victory.
Congrats Steve...You are like the Florida of this bracket winning a close one at the buzzer....I guess that makes me Houston.
The computer doesn't get its Data-bytes treat tonight.
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I usually wait till a player commits before I do a review. But I think when somebody from the portal visits I will do a review.
So today we will look at Jamir Simpson from So Utah (WAC). UT is a D- team and has a C SOS. As a reference The Bills are B & B, so this is a step up for him. Let's look at his slash.....
FG%.....3P%...2P....FT
D- / C / F / A+
A couple of points here....First ..Why don't I use the efficient FG% stat which might be better than using FG%. eFG% is definitely an improvement over just using FG%. BUT it is not an improvement over using 2P% and 3P% which give you more info. The reason there is an eFG is because many times the 2P% is left out of the slash. By listing the 2 and 3 pt shots you get more info especially related to Schertz teams. Most fans outside of Schertz world say...his teams are the 3P shooters. While that is definitely an important part of the game what many don't realize is Schertz teams have lead the nation in 2s. Last year ISU was #1 in 2P%...this year The Bills were # 3.
Which bring us back to Simpson ( and Green in the earlier post above). Simpson's numbers on FG and 3P are 41.5 and 33.9%...a D- & C. If we look at the eFG it is 46.3%...which grades out at F....The higher number looks nicer but in reality grades out worse. ( a C grade would be around 50.5) So not flashy report cards BUT there is a striking similarity not only between Simpson and Green but in other Schertz recruits.. He is not looking for that hot player (although he will take them if he can get them)...he is looking for someone with a lesser line who can be "fixed". Of course all coaches think they can fix players but with Schertz it is different. Part of the "fixing" is fitting into his system. That is, shooting 2s closer in. It is just logical that when you take closer in shots you will make more of them. And the pattern of the fixed players has been their 2P% goes up which in turn pushes up their FG% which in turn opens up 3 P opportunities, which increases scoring. This is a simplified version of what he does but this is the basic premise. Many of the players with weaker numbers take many mid and long range 2s. Majerus used to say the long 2 was the worst shot on the floor. In the end, not ever player can adjust to this system but the ones who do find success.
So in terms of analysis , it comes down to whether Schertz can find the right players for his system....ones who can adapt. History says yes he can...we will find out in the coming year whether history repeats itself.
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Time for the year end review. Probably the best way to do this is go back to the beginning...my beginning of the season review done in early Dec.
The bolded statements are from that early season review.
For The Bills, the addition of a new coach on top of almost a brand new team creates a lot of turmoil. One of the effects of big change is inconsistency. ...I could have written this today but it was written 4 months ago.
Now is a good time to probably discuss expectations. Change always brings excitement and hope until the season starts. Then stuff happens. Let's look at some numbers from Coach Schertz.
..................Lincoln Mem U..........Ind St U...........SLU
1st yr.............14-14.......................11-20................6-3 (so far)
2nd yr...........20-10......................23-13.................?
3rd yr............27-2........................32-7...................?
Strange but impressive numbers.... There are those on this Board who are ready to move on from Schertz. If history is any guide then that would be a mistake. It takes time for Coach to work his magic. Judging by GDTs and posting in general, patience is not a virtue of this Board. Should we give the Coach more time? Yes.....How much ?..more than 1 year to see results....3 years to see great results. Is this a lost year? No We could still see good things this year if we get some players back and stay healthy...Again, I could have written this today but since I didn't this now seems like sage advice.
Bills forecast...We now have 8 D1 games under our belt. For my system 8 is a magic number. It is not an ideal number but the minimum number of games to play where there is enough data to make some observations and forecasts. We currently are 6-3 (8 D1 games) with a C+ rating on a C- schedule. As conferences go, the A-10 is a B conference. If we are to compete this year will have to get better in a fairly short time...as in getting our team grade up to B...Looking back at the season, we did get better...C+ to B. I think Schertz did a good job under the circumstances. ....a new team (only 1 player from last year played the whole season...plus our depth disappeared to the point where we were playing mainly a starting 5. So the point of getting to grade B is so that we could be competitive in the A10. We got to B and we were competitive. The goal after getting to B at the start of conference play was to then get to B+ where we could finish Top 4...We never made it to either (B+ or Top 4)...close but short...let's look at the rest of the forecast....
Here is what the computer sees at this time for the Bills....
................................Over all.................A-10
Best Case..................20-10..................12-6
Most probable...........17-13....................9-9
Worst case.................12-18...................4-14
A few notes here ...a 12-6 record would be enough to get a top 4 finish for the A-10 tourney. A finish of 16-14 would be Schertz 's best 1st year start... The Bills finished at 19-15 and 11-7 in conf. We missed the best case scenario by 1 more win both in overall and A-10. The 12-6 to get into the top 4 was right on. For 1st years this was easily Schertz's best start which if history is a guide this bodes well for The Bills future.
While all conference games are important, the computer sees 8 league games as crucial to getting to post season play...Day (2), VCU (2), Loy (2), RI and St. B. If we win 5 of those games, we are in good shape... Unfortunately we only won 4...again falling 1 win short.
Now let's look at the A-10 forecast...beginning vs the end of the season...The difference is the letter grade difference so in the case of the Bills a C- to B would be a diff of +2
Beg of season....End of season.....The diff
1...Day...A...............B......................-3
2...Loy...A-..............B.....................-2
3...RI.... C+............C+.................correct
4...St. B...B+............B-..................-2
5...VCU...B+............A-..................+1
6...Dav.....B.............C+..................-2
7...GM......B.............B+..................+1
8...St. J....B.............B.....................correct
9...Bills...C+............B.....................+2
10...GW... C+...........B-...................+1
11...LaS...C+............C-....................-2
12...Duq...C.............B-....................+2
13...Ford...C............C-....................-1
14...UMass...C-.......C....................+1
15...Rich.....D+.......D+...................correct
Results......................Past history
With in 2...93%............80-87%
With in 1....53%............53-67% (includes correct)
Exact hit....20%...........13-20%
Changes......
One change I will make for next year is what it will take to make the Big Dance. For years , I have always talked about reaching B+ as a minimum to make the Dance. If you finished the season with a B+ you had about a 1/3 chance of Dancing. If you graded in at A- about a 90% chance to Dance. As a result of The NET, those days are over. B+ will be for NIT only now with about an 18% chance to Dance if you get an A- or a B. The NCAA need to expand the Dance but that topic is for another thread.
Another change was one that I made as the season progressed ... POTs...Points Off Turnovers. I always mention TOs in game forecasts and the importance of matching or beating the opponent. It is not just that you lose an opportunity to score but you give the opponent an extra chance. Not a good thing in an era of parity. During the season, I noticed a disturbing TO trend. It wasn't just that we were giving up extra TOs but that the other team was scoring more points per TO than we were. In other words our TOs were more damaging. I noticed during the season had we matched POTs with the other team we would have had 3 more wins....finishing 14-4 in 2nd place with a double bye. The Loy game in the A10 tournament was a good example of this. We had 1 more TO than Loy but they had 8 more POTs than us....the difference in the game.
Bottom line....History has shown that Schertz always does significantly better in his 2nd year and the 3rd year is gold. Let's hope history repeats itself.
- Adman, billikenbill and Fraz
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1 hour ago, VeniceMenace said:
Wiz, if those were “iffy” minutes for Green, then how did he earn Big East all-freshman team honors?
I will let the Xavier athletic dept. explain it.....
Green, who led Xavier with a game-high and career-high 23 points in the win at Providence on Jan. 13 on the strength of a career-high five 3-pointers, has hit at least one 3-pointer in 22 games, including 15 BIG EAST games. He has hit at least two 3-pointers in eight BIG EAST games and 10 games overall.
Basically, he had an amazing game against Providence plus a good Xavier Athletic PR dept....Without that Prov game he shoots 30% and winds up with an F- for the year.
It reminds me of the old sales joke...
Bob...How did Joe win Salesman of the year?
Steve...He lost money on every sale but he made it up in volume.
Bottom line...He had a D in his freshman year in 3 P shooting...In his soph year he had an A in a small sample size ( 9 of 24 from the arc) in 9 games....will he pan out ??.. maybe he will meld into the Schertz system and have an A year ...he has the potential...At this point he is "iffy".
- CenHudDude and VeniceMenace
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1 hour ago, Dr. Holly Hills said:
So Green’s fr year he went 38-118 from 3, for 32% and that’s a D?
Yes...He was 32.2%....D = 32.1-32.6%
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55 minutes ago, brianstl said:
A 35% from the 3 is a D+ for Brown?
Green had a higher eFG than Brown last season, but Brown gets a C+ and Green gets an F for FG%?
Weird.
On the Brown 35% from 3....I had the 2P and 3P grades turned around. It was in fact 3P...B- and 2P D+ with a ? because of a small sample size which makes it less meaningful. I had it right on my stat sheet but in the transfer to the post it was reversed. But the narrative was correct in regards to Brown fitting in better with the Schertz system. His 2P% was down because he took longer 2s. With Schertz he should be able to take shorter shots which in turn should boost his 2P% and his FG%.
As for Brown getting a higher grade on FG% than Brown...The answer is you really can't compare the two. I listed the 2 together in the post because they both signed at the same time but as I pointed out above it is not real meaningful because Green has a small sample size (only 40% of a full size). It is also why I listed 2 years of Green data to give a little better picture but even with 2 years it is still sketchy.
Bottom line ...we are not sure what we are getting with Green...Brown looks promising if he can adjust to the Schertz system.
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Let's take a look at the newest additions... Dion Brown and Trey Green...These will be a little more complicated then the first 2 signees.
? = small sample size... less or not meaningful. After the question mark I will list the the % data I have compared to a full sample size. I have added that to the Otieno's profile in the original post above.
First , we have D Brown....
.....................FG%....2P%.........3P%.................FT%...
D. Brown.......C+........B-..........D+ ? (75%)........A-
A quizzical line for sure. A couple of key points here...1st he took a big step up this last season from UMBC in the AEC (if you don't know what these letters mean...that is part of the problem) to Bos Coll in the ACC. In the year before BC, he was an A+ from 2P range. The other key point is he may fit into the Schertz system better than in Boston. While at BC he took more mid and long 2P shots. As we all know there are no mid and long 2P shots in the Schertz system. If Brown does take shorter shots, his 2P and FG% should go up and make him a good player at SLU.
If you thought that player was a bit confusing , we will move on to a more complicated one. Green just finished his 2nd year at Xav. Unfortunately, he only played in 9 games. To make matters worse, while he played a full season he only averaged 13 min/gm. ...and those weren't great minutes. I am going to list both years to try and make a little sense out of it. Again, the % represent amount of data collected
..............................FG%...................2P%.....................3P%..................FT%
T Green.....Fr........F-.. ?(65%)............F- ?(27%)..........D.....................A+ (Fr & Soph combined)
...............Soph......F..?(40%).............F..?( 5%)..............A..?(36%).......A+ (Fr & Soph combined)
An iffy pick...the question will be can he turn the ?s into +s...especially from the arc... we will know with another 64%.
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In an effort to take a closer look, I thought it would be interesting to grade our new transfer players. A question mark next to the grade indicates a small sample size and may not be a meaningful grade. After the question mark I will list the the % data I have compared to a full sample size.
....................................FG%......................2P%......3P%......FT%........Overall.........Misc
Otieno ...Qpac.............A+ (42nd ITN).......A+..........A ? (48%).......A+..............A+.............Blks (22nd ITN)
Q Jones...NIU..............B............................B.............B+........A................B+..................
Looks like we are off to a good start.
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14 minutes ago, OkieBilliken said:
This was AD malpractice for sure. Re-reading Stu's articles pre-selection sure don't read like a team that is dying to get after it one more time. We were playing starters 35+ minutes per game almost the entire season. Schertz said after the Loyola game that several of his players were beat up. It was pretty clear we were lucky to get in the NIT field so very little chance of a home game. Not sure what the payout was for that game but I dont think it was worth it.
$4000
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The Final GATTPOW & TOPO
19th in all time 3PM is pretty sweet including passing Curry at 21. And unless Lville makes it to the championship game he should be able to stay ahead of Smith in the 28th spot.
19 Gibson Jimerson 422 2020 2025 Saint Louis 20 Akeem Richmond 416 2010 2014 East Carolina 21 Stephen Curry 414 2007 2009 Davidson 22 Curtis Staples 413 1995 1998 Virginia 23 Jack Leasure 411 2005 2008 Coastal Carolina 24 Keith Veney 409 1993 1997 Marshall 25 Andrew Rowsey 404 2014 2018 Marquette 26 Joseph Girard 402 2020 2024 Clemson 27 Doug Day 401 1990 1993 Radford 28 Gerry McNamara 400 2003 2006 Syracuse Reyne Smith 400 2022 2025 Louisville Finishing at 112 on the all time points list...Nice...If Lville can knock off Creighton and hold Kalkbrenner to 16 he should be able to hold on to 112. Great job GJ
110 Steve Alford 2438 1984 1987 Indiana 111 Dallas Moore 2437 2014 2017 North Florida 112 Gibson Jimerson 2428 2020 2025 Saint Louis Charles Jones 2428 1994 1998 Long Island University 114 Kevin Foster 2423 2009 2013 Santa Clara 115 Gay Elmore 2422 1983 1987 Virginia Military Institute 116 Carlos Yates 2420 1982 1985 George Mason 117 Ryan Kalkbrenner 2411 2021 2025 Creighton 118 Keith Lee 2408 1982 1985 Memphis 119 Charles Williams 2404 2017 2020 Howard 120 Malik Sealy 2401 1989 1992 St. John's (NY) 121 Phil Sellers 2399 1973 1976 Rutgers 122 Todd Day 2395 1989 1992 Arkansas Jayden Gardner 2395 2019 2023 Virginia 124 Lindsey Hunter 2393 1989 1993 Jackson State 125 Kyle Singler 2392 2008 2011 Duke 126 Dell Curry 2389 1983 1986 Virginia Tech -
Disappointing end to the season.
I will try to make the wrap short and sweet.
Bolded statements from the original post above.
beat them on the boards...no 2nd chances...POTs...even...they already get plenty of extra chances don't give them any freebees...This is the quickest summary of what happened. These 2 stats (rebs and TOs) alone gave ArSt an additional 19 pts almost the spread of the game and we haven't even mentioned shooting. ASU shot around 60% for most of the game ...nearly double their season average. They had twice as many 3PM as we did...8 vs 16 (24 extra pts for ASU). We are 27th ITN in 3PM so to double us is quite a feat. Many of the forecasters will say this is an anomaly ...No question , any way you look at it ...it was an outlier. They would say , the Wolves had a great game (they did ) and tip your cap to them. (we did ...in the Schertz post game interview).
The above paragraph is the how....and that is where most sports writers will leave it. For most games , that is what I would do too.. e.g. we missed the target slash by 2 three pt shots and that's why we lost by 6 ...etc , etc. But I think you need to look at the why in this game. It wasn't just me being way off in this game but Vegas and sports betting services across the nation were all off by 20+ pts. Again it wasn't just that ASU shot a little better ....they had their best game of the season...for them a perfect game. Why? The answer is Jonesboro...Imagine for a moment that the NCAA announced that they would play the Final 4 in Jonesboro . Well that will never happen. But what did happen is the NCAA decided to play the NIT ASU game in Jonesboro...maybe the biggest sporting event to ever take place in Jonesboro. The town and the team were ramped up for this "major sporting" event. Most teams in the NIT knew they weren't going to the Dance...others were close and just missed. ASU was one of them. They lost to Troy in the final minutes of their conference tourney and were out. This first NIT game for them wasn't about a 2nd chance to play some more bball or a chance to redeem themselves for their near miss....This was about playing in a "major" sporting event IN THEIR HOMETOWN. Did you see the way the players danced around after making plays. Some would call this show boating ...the players would say they were celebrating. Did you see how the players mingled with the crowd after the game...more celebrating.
Across America the NIT is a footnote in the sports news. This game was just a dot on the i in that footnote ( there are 2 i's in the word ...Billiken) ...and while most sports fans will never hear about this game in Jonesboro the players, the college and the city will never forget the day the NIT came to town and they won.
This is what college basketball is all about...amateurs who play their heart out because they love the game ...and the fans who follow them. Sadly , this is what we are losing with NIL and the Portal. But for "one shining moment" (not our shining moment ...ours is still coming) we saw that excitement and celebration wash over college basketball again.
That wasn't really short nor what I was planning to write but it seemed to put things in perspective. It also shows the vulnerability of using just computer analysis. The computer looked at this game and saw a 2.5 pt home court advantage. It would never understand the concept of a 20 pt home court advantage. Just like it wouldn't understand why if you took the money out of basketball ...why humans would still follow and be excited for the game. That is why it is called Artificial Intelligence.
Go Bills
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5 minutes ago, Minerva N. Owl said:
Could this be a redemption game for GJ? That last game against Loyola would have been a pretty tough way to end his career. 0 for 5 from 3. 4 points total for GJ in the recent loss. How much of that was due to Loyola's defense (in response to GJ going lights out on Mardi Gras Saturday at Chaifetz)? I assumed that would be the last game of the career for Swope and GJ, and it was one of the worst I remember for GJ. Redemption?
Wiz - You show ArkSt as A+ ... 14th ITN defending the 3. But that's against lesser competition. What are the prospects of finding a way to get GJ in the game more this time -- either cutting to the basket or somehow getting some 3s to drop this time so that he is closer to his normal offensive contribution? Winning would be very nice, as would making a run in this (diluted?) NIT, but it would also be nice to see a better version of GJ to rinse out that sour taste.
As you know, GJ plays almost every min of every game...something few players do. To do it in back to back games is going to take it's toll even on a player use to playing lots of minutes. I think he along with the rest of the team will be in better shape with the few days off. Three point shooting can be streaky anyway particularly when you are on the road in new surroundings. Hopefully he will have his touch back tomorrow. I am sure he was disappointed after his great final game at Chaifetz. He will probably be a little more focused for this game so that he can end on a high note.
The improvements the Bills have made since Dec have shown they have many ways to score. In addition, their defense is much better. If you pressure a weak shooting team like ArSt they could become rattled and make mistakes. I think it would help if we play up tempo too.
In the end the game will be about extra chances...rebounding and TOs....don't give extra chances to a team that can't shoot. The Bills don't need a great shooting night to win ...they need a normal shooting night without giving away freebees.
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NIT tourney ...who'd thunk it. We give thanks to the teams that dropped out of the NIT. The biggest surprise is not us making it in but that they took St. B too. The NIT took the top 6 teams in the A10 after VCU....plus 3 other Bills opponents. ...The A10 & Friends tourney....Since we were 3-9 against these teams maybe we could call it the Revenge Tour.
First up, Ark St. ...24-10 ..1st in the Sun Belt...which raises a number of questions ...who , what and where. The Red Wolves are located in Jonesboro (NE corner of Ark) They finished 1st in conference but lost to Troy in the Championship game. (ArSt was an auto bid)...ASU is a 3rd seed in this tourney.
Now let's get to the nitty gritty. First, we are the better team. Let's look at some of the facts. ASU has a SOS of 177...we have a 98...The level of competition isn't close. They have one claim to fame. They beat Memphis back in mid Dec... Not much has happened since then. Yes , they did win the Sun Belt conf...Sun Belt ??...This conference is one notch above the Moon Belt conf. Eight of the 14 teams in the Sun Belt would have finished last in the A10...some not winning any games at all. So whether you are looking at games won or stats you have to look at it through a 177 looking glass.
Game preview...
So does that mean we win...the spread says hold on .... the game is pretty much even...the home field advantage is the difference. Had this game been played at Hinkle with the other games we would have been favored.
So what are we dealing with here. An age old problem...the unstoppable force (The Bills...when they are right) vs the immovable object (ASU defense ). ASU has a bad offense. They have this small problem ...they can't shoot. But they have one of the better defenses in country. When you look at the report card below, there are some things that don't make sense at first glance...You see the poor shooting but then you see they are a fairly high scoring team (B+ ). What gives? They can rebound. When you miss a lot of shots, if you can rebound (6th ITN) , you get a lot of 2nd chances. (FGA...6th ITN). To win, take away 2nd chances.
For The Bills , the target slash will be important. They need to make shots. While ASU has a good Defense, again, remember the 177...much of that was done against weaker teams. They will bother us but we have been bothered before. Make shots and rebound and we win.
Contrary to the fact , I have poked fun at ASU , they are a B team , the same as us and this should be a good game.
One last thing. We have had a few days rest which is a good thing. ASU will be off for 8 days which means they could be cold on shooting...hmmm ASU cold on shooting...I think that is what they call an oxymoron...like jumbo shrimp.
Play Bills ball and we win.
Let's look at the card
Report Card....
Report Card change....none up...4 dn...5 unchanged = -4...I think we were fatigued in that last Loy game which caused us to fade especially on defense.
UP.....OFF....none...DEF.....none
Dn....OFF...Rebs....DEF.......PPG...FG%...3P%
................SLU...........ArSt...................SLU....................ArSt
.........................OFF..............................................DEF..........
PPG...........C+...............B+.........................B-..............................B-
FG%..........A-................F+..........................B+............................A...20th ITN
3P%..........B..................D-..........................B-.............................A+..14th ITN
FT%..........D-.................C+............................................................
Reb............C................A+..6th ITN..............D...............................F
OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU...
2P%....Team...........3rd.......up
PPG....Jimerson... 71st.....dn
Asst....Swope........90th.....up
3PM......Jimerson...13th...unch
..............Swope.......24th...up
Reb....Anya............84th...dn
ArSt...
Asst...Ford..58th
Rebs...Nelson...42nd
FG%...Nelson...100th...he and a couple of other bigs are looking for put backs
Injuries
SLU...
Casey & Dotzler...OFTS
Thames...Out Indefinitely....3/2/25...undisclosed
ArSt...
None to report
Keys to the game.... Make some shots ...reb...get off to a good start ...get the lead and then close strong
WWN2D2W....Target slash 48 / 61 / 36 / 73 ...This is always important but especially in this game....Rebs...this will also be an important stat...beat them on the boards...no 2nd chances...POTs...even...they already get plenty of extra chances don't give them any freebees. Nelson is their main rebounder.. keep him at 6....hold the Red Wolves to under 70 pts.
Bottom line...
The Red Wolves are from A S U
Let's beat them up... make them black and blue.
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The NIT features the top 6 teams in the A10 after VCU. Day #1 seed...GM #2 ...St. J #3...St. B #4 ...SLU and Loy unseeded...but we were ranked ahead of Loy. If we get to the Championship game , we would play either Day or SF. In addition we could play Santa Clara and Wichita St . We have played 12 games (36% of our season) against teams in this NIT. This will be like a redo of the season without the bad teams. Why didn't they just call this Tourney..A-10 plus Friends. As Yogi Berra use to say...it is deja vu all over again.
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3 extra NIT bids open up as S Carolina, Ind and Wake turn down bids
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9 minutes ago, thunderdan said:
Coach says he thinks there’s a 50-50 chance for an NIT invite. Sadly, I don’t think there‘s anywhere near that much of a likelihood.
It will come down to how many auto bids are handed out for the Big Dance and the NIT. The Bills have a chance...just not a good one...I am showing the chances for an NIT bid are 43%. And I think the 43% is being generous...The NET shows 4 teams ahead of SLU after the NCAA bid is given out just in the A10 alone. I have 3 teams ahead of SLU in the A10.
To @brianstl point about teams turning down bids because of players moving to the portal and teams not having enough players ....we might be one of those teams. I think where Schertz gets the 50% is ...68 NCAA teams plus 32 NIT teams equals 100 and we are close to 100....NET 101...KenPom 106....there are 5 other rankings figured into the NIT to come up with an average score.
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12 hours ago, Minerva N. Owl said:
When is the last time the A10 was a one bid league? If VCU loses, do they get a dance invitation? A loss by VCU to Mason would leave them with a record of 26-7. VCU has lost just twice in 2025 (to SLU and Dayton, and to the Bonnies on New Year's Eve). But VCU had a soft non-conference schedule, with just one quad one win the entire season. VCU's rankings:
- NET: 31
- KenPom: 30
- BPI: 33
- Torvik: 28
- KPI: 38
- SOR: 48
- WAB: 54
I have VCU as an A- team....converting that to a ranking would put them at 44 with a 61% chance for a bid. I mentioned in an earlier post that they were the only team that had a chance for an at large bid. I didn't say they would have a good chance but a chance. A VCU loss to GM would put them close to 50%. Then it would depend on how many automatic bids there were...ie teams that couldn't qualify on their own that wound up earning a bid. Ironically, a VCU loss to GM would create 1 less position. In addition, the Committee looks down on 1 bid leagues where their may be an incentive for the league to have the favorite lose and create a 2nd bid... not that the A10 would ever do that...but it is a warning shot to leagues that might try that. Again, one of the pitfalls of being in a mid major conference.
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The Spirits are busy today...There is only time for a spread, NCAA bid strategy and a curse....
Play like yesterday and we win....
5 step plan to make it to March Madness
Step 1...Win....Complete
Step 2 ...Win
Step 3 ...Win
Step 4 ...Win
Step 5...Go to NCAA tourney
Short and simple
Curse...
Ramble on to a loss Loyola or other wise I will turn you into a wildcat or a bobcat or was it a cougar...oh no , I am starting to ramble...Be gone Billiken curse and win today.
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Bolded and(Parentheses) statements from original posts....
Our last game with Dav a couple of weeks ago was away and I had the game as even...we won by one. Now being on a neutral court we should be able to win by more. Plus they had a tough, tight game against Rich yesterday...another edge. Finally, Dav is a poor 3P defending team yet we only shot 33% last time. If we have a more normal game this time we can beat the spread.. This all worked out right.
Mr. Davidson is Bailey. He is 18th ITN in scoring and leads the team in most other categories...beat him and beat Dav. Yes we did. Hold Bailey to 15 pts...Excellent ...we held him to 14. (Bailey is now 39th in PPG...Let's hold him and Kochera to 14pts this time)... This too is a check mark...The goal was to hold Bailey and Kochera to 14 pts a total of 28 pts ....we did it... Bailey 10 and Kochera 18....last game the 2 of them scored 37 pts ...so we did 9 pts better this time...or 1 pt more than the margin of victory.
They also have a 3 shooter, Durkin, who we need to keep an eye on. Durkin...limit to two 3PM....Check...he had two 3PM. (Let's do it again)...We did even better this time...NO 3PM...0-5...excellent
(keep a lid on the POTs...keep them even.) ...This didn't work but came out OK because we did what we did last time which did work. ...Had 4 more TOs than Dav which led to the same extra 4 pts... 13-9... what are he odds of having exactly the same POTs in back to back games against the same team....put your calculators down...it is very small.
Target slash 48 / 61 / 36 / 73 ...and here is the real winner of the game...57/74/44/65...and we were only 2 FTs short of making the target. It is OK ...i will take this slash every time.
Bottom line...Make 3s to see victories...We did and we did.
GDT: Open Practice
in Billikens.com Main Board
Posted
Here is my take...We are bigger... more aggressive...more physical ...faster...more athletic....We are still rough around the edges(they have only practiced a couple of weeks) but are looking good at this point.
Players to watch...
Best additions ...Otieno and Dunlap
Nice looking shot...Sharp Shooter Sharma
Healthy player...Thames played a lot of minutes with no seeming problems.
Best freshman in a while...Kerr and Laczkowski...thin big guys who are athletic and can shoot.
Knows what he is doing...Brown...has good floor sense and can shoot.
Most improved from last year...Anya and McCottry...both more aggressive and playing more defense.
Lost weight and is in better shape...Avila...he can still shoot and pass.
Big difference maker...Jones....he can do it all
Best Kwamain Mitchell impersonator...Green...he has that potential
Bottom line...This will be a better team than last year and should win more games...check back with me on the first week in Nov.
Go Bills