The Wiz
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17 hours ago, kshoe said:If we land the majority of the ISU players, why would we expect anything other than to have a NET similar to what they had last year? They had a NET of 28 last year, only Dayton would have been higher. Not sure why you'd sell SLU short by lumping us in with teams 2-4 in the A-10 that had NETs in the 70-90 range.
I agree. A few weeks back , I responded to the question ...How would ISU do in the A-10? (and conversely , how would SLU do in the MVC). In the simulations, it showed SLU finishing 2nd to Day. In those simulations where we played Day twice, we split with Day and tied for the conference championship. (and SLU finished 2nd from the bottom in the MVC)
To the uncertainty question, there is always uncertainty BUT there are 2 things that are clear...Successful coaches have 2 qualities...they win games and they have a system. That is Schertz. Will we get 1 ISU player or 5? It doesn't matter. This was the guy that recruited and put "the five" together. Whatever he brings over, he will be able to fill in the pieces and make it work. With better facilities , more NIL money and a higher profile, he should be able to make it work even better.
And yes... there are no guarantees. In Schertz's first season, where he truly started from scratch, he was 11-20. For the fans, that didn't throw in the towel, he rallied the next year with a 23-13 record. And finally for the ..."yeah but" fans he finished this year at 32-7.
Of course, to those who say this is different...this is SLU....all we have to do is look back a decade and remember the hiring of HOF Coach Majerus...a coach who had never had a losing season. First season...12-19. Of course the naysayers were there with the..."I told you so". I remember early in the next season the computer started flashing red(as in big change) and I posted the highly controversial statement...we are a top 20 team. The naysayers said that I was way off...80 or 90 at best. And as the season went on the doubters would bend a little and say 60 or maybe 50 and when we finally made it 20 and below those posters disappeared (as they always do). I am sure that if we hired UConn Coach Hurley, there would be posters that would say....so he has back to back National Championships... "yeah but" can he win in the A-10.
Bottom line...Doubters gonna doubt. Winners gonna win. Schertz is a winner....and he is gonna win.
CenHudDude, BuiltFordBills, Billikitty7 and 9 others like this -
Great game... I like the EVEN call even post game. Could have gone either way but at least the outcome didn't matter for Bills fans.
This game was decided at the charity stripe.... 90s were wild.. ISU showed why they are 3rd ITN in FT% with a 90%...And SH showed why they are 11th in FT% matching the Trees with 90%...The difference... SH had 90% more FTA... Those extra 9 shots led to an extra 7 pts. ... That was huge in a close game.
Back 3 weeks ago the computer said... Nothing happens till ISU loses... And that would probably be the 1st week in April. The computer would like to remind those without a calender that we are talking about between now and Sun (Apr 7).... Translation... New Coach by Sunday.
Tick.. Tick... Tick
CenHudDude likes this -
Different song same lyrics.
Has the computer become lazy? Rather than go through the numbers , is it just spitting out EVENS. So I push the computer for an answer. It comes back and says ....ISU by a 1/16 of a point against UT and a 1/3 of a point against Seton Hall. It then asks ...What part of EVEN do you not understand? The computer did say that if ISU had 20+ FTA against UT the spread would swing in favor of ISU. In this game, the program says if ISU makes its slash (51/39/ 80) and /or wins the reb battle, the spread will swing to the ISU side.
For Bills fans, it really doesn't matter...it is D Day...Decision Day. I found myself rooting for ISU. The computer's mantra has been ...nothing happens till ISU loses= nothing happens till the 1st week of April. So I resigned myself to the fact it was going to be a long tourney. It has been fun to watch a good coach with good players beat good teams. Of course , this just makes the NCAA look silly. They said that ISU played a weak schedule. Yet their own computer (NET) had ISU at 29th ITN. Ah, but they knew better. How did that work out?
Before Selection Sunday, Schertz said if they made the Dance , it would prove they are a deserving team. If they didn't make the Dance, they would prove they were a deserving team. I guess he showed them
BTW, even though the NET is shut down, my computer continues to spin. On selection Sunday , my computer had ISU at 52% chance to Dance. 50% is good enough for a P5 school to make it. An at large non P5 school needs 70%. 70% is the new 50% for non P5 schools who don't have an auto bid. Today ISU reached 72% ...in other words, the NCAA would select them today. It ain't easy being a mid major.
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6 minutes ago, BrettJollyComedyHour said:
Or Shirtz
Ok ...i have fed this into the computer and here is the starting 5....
Schenk
Schenck...Captain because he has an extra C
Shirts...he is the clean player
Shirtz...he is the dirty one
Shotz....As a beer baron...he could not only play but sponsor the BVF...if you are puzzled by this choice ...ask Laverne or Shirley.
And coming off the bench Schertz...our secret weapon...the one no one has heard of.
laker119 and billikenbill like this -
I think this sums up the game....
from the post above....
Bottom line....Because this game is EVEN , the computer thinks that it may be decided at the FT line...If ISU gets 20+ FTA then the game starts to swing toward ISU.
They had 20....If you take FTM... it was ISU 14 to UT 5...pretty much the difference in the game.
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Just now, White Pelican said:
Wow, so there's TWO of 'em?
And don't forget the "Shirts".
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3 minutes ago, BrettJollyComedyHour said:
Right? Who the f is Schenk?
Wait...which Schenk are you talking about ...1 "c " Schenk or 2 "c" Schenck?
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2 hours ago, slufan13 said:
SLU could compete with Utah
The Bills playing Utah tonight at Hinkle...UT over the Bills by 11 and that assumes SLU is able to force 9 TOs.
If you want to extrapolate that...UT by 11 over Bills....ISU over UT by 10...ISU over the Bills by 21...and one last one...24-25 Bills over 23-24 Bills by 21
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1 hour ago, ACE said:
The official line is ISU by 3.5. I hope the Utah bigs can get Avilla in foul trouble. The wait has been long enough. Let's start a new era tomorrow. A lot of work to do.
I asked the computer about the 3.5 line. It said that ISU might be able to cover it after the OT.
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On 3/30/2024 at 6:58 PM, White Pelican said:
Hey Wiz, did your computer have anything to predict regarding the Illini vs UConn? My goodness.
The computer thought the Illini were lucky to beat Ia St.
Illni vs UConn? The computer said ...No Champagne
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1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:
System coaches need the right personnel to run their system. That's why Majerus couldn't win here until he had his guys in place. Schertz runs his offense through the 5. Not only did we not have a 5 that is a high level shooter and passer, the rest of the team was the worst collection of passers in decades.
Hopefully CJS turns into the next RM. Schertz does have 3 advantages over 1st year RM. First is, he is bringing some of his own players...players who know, understand and have executed his system. Second, their is the portal where he can bring in players that fit his system. The portal is more valuable when you know exactly what you need as opposed to...this guy seems pretty good. And finally NIL...Again, instead of just throwing money at players...pay just for what you need.
Will things work out this way? We will know in a few days....tick ...tick ...tick
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9 hours ago, Old guy said:
Wiz, you are giving, at least the current generation of AI, a power that it plainly does not have. The current AIs have a great deal of capability doing surveillance and marketing guidance towards specific goals determined by the AI company, rather than by the user. I consider them primarily a marketing tool /surveillance tool.
I really do not think it is a matter of the AI machines becoming smarter than us. I think it is more of a surrender by people of the power of their own thinking, and choosing instead the easy advice provided by the machine. In other word we, the people, are abandoning our ability for original thinking and seeking for solutions to actual problems. and following the advise provided by the machine, We are becoming stupider than the machines, not the other way around. And yes, as long as people follow the advice of the AI they will slowly become dumber than the machine, and will be easier to predict and get them to buy specific products.
Your example of continuing to do the weave every new season hoping to get better results somehow is a prime example of stupidity. This is something that a coaching AI programmed after Ford's coaching would be likely to do because that is what he did. Of course, your computer would find it easier to predict outcomes for a team using this "Ford" AI as long as the team continues doing the weave and hoping for the better every season. As far as an OG AI goes, I do not think such an AI will be programmable to reproduce my thought patterns, although it may copy my writing style. I
The ChatGPT AI is artificial but it is not intelligent or capable of original thought. However, it is effective as a marketing and surveillance tool.
Ah...OG pooh poohing AI when he (and we) may just be the just the latest iteration of AI. Kind of like Pacman and Mario Brothers trying to figure out the world.
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13 hours ago, Old guy said:
Wiz, computers work processing data which is actually defined by prior events and actions. People do not, people have a conscious part, which is what determine actual events, and a vast subconscious part which determines how to define what is passed down and creates the conscious level. We, people living in a conscious world, have little knowledge of what is going on in the subconscious. However the subconscious is the determinant part of our perceptions and knowledge. What we consider reality, is only real up to a point.
Read "Incognito" by David Eagleman. He is a neuroscientist at Baylor and leads the Laboratory for Perception and Action as well as the Initiative on Neuroscience and Law. Very interesting, this short book really raises questions about how people make up their minds about everything. This is NOT the concept that people act to improve their lives, what determines how people believe and act like is done in a very different and hard to understand subconscious manner. Cheap read, $15 in paperback, Vantage Press, very worthwhile read.
You are right ...computers use past data to make forecasts. And people tend to do the same things over and over hoping for different results. After awhile the changes become predictable too....Let's keep the weave going a little longer and see if we can generate some more offense. As the computer gathers more data on players and coaches, games become more predictable. Once I have 8 games under my belt, I can start to zero in on outcomes.
As for the "people" part, that will become less important as Artificial Intelligence reaches singularity and the machines become smarter than us. Machines may be the Coaches of the future. But even before that happens , AI will take over the message boards. There will be an AI Old Guy. It will study the thought patterns and writing style of Old Guy and then produce OG posts ...nonstop... causing all AI MBMs to put AI OG on ignore.
Of course, there could be an AI Wiz ...or has that already happened.....HAL is that you??
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11 hours ago, slufan13 said:
Who wins more games this past season
Schertz with SLU's roster
or
Ford with ISU's roster
I was going to let this slide by as I thought why beat on Ford anymore. And then I thought it might be a good idea to show the upside of Schertz.
So the simply answer is Schertz wins more games...but you knew that already. But as I know, the computer never gives simple answers. And it is the additional info that is interesting.
First interesting fact was the computer thought that at the beginning of the season the BIlls had the better team ...not because we were great but that ISU was just a so so team.
Point 1...Schertz takes a so so team and moves them to NET 29
Point 2...In the 1st game of the season , I have SLU play ISU...Bills over ISU by 3 on a neutral court.
Point 3...I have SLU play ISU today....ISU over The Bills by 11 on a neutral court.
I could stop here but let's keep going...
Point 4...Coaches now switch teams...a lot of ifs here but in the end the Coach is responsible for whatever happens...even things beyond his control.
Point 5...ISU starts off promisingly with CTF but the season starts to fade due to a variety of reasons...some explainable ...some not. (not the least of which we are living in an alternate universe) ...ISU finishes 10th in MVC ahead of Valpo and UIC...no post season but Ford says he has a plan.
Point 6 ... The Bills have a lot of promise and start the season well but have some things go wrong ...players missing... injuries...but continue to hang on and win some close games that don't seem winnable.(in another universe they are not winnable) KenPom adds an extra margin to the Bills spread calling it the "luck " factor. Bills finish the season in 1st place AND go on to win the A10 tourney too and get the auto bid...the NCAA still gives an at large bid to Dayton (because they can)...Bills receive a 7th seed in the bracket.
Point 7...Back to the original question...who has more wins...Schertz...
Bottom line... The preceding was a series of simulations. You may agree with all of it ...some of it... or none of it but in the final analysis the computer says ....we are getting a better Coach.
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36 minutes ago, TaLBErt said:
C of C will be in the A10 in the next 3 years. You heard it here first.
That sounds pretty good.....Hopefully they will be taking our place as The Bills move on to the Big East.
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1 hour ago, ACE said:
This is an interesting match-up. Utah is a very big team. Wiz can you crunch some numbers and rate the Indiana State starters defensively? I recall you said they are average defensively as a team, but interested if any of them are plus defenders. With the eye test, Julian Larry might be in my very limited viewing.
Here is the report card for the game. Since the starters play 182 min/gm (91% of the entire game) if you look at the defensive side of the report card you are essentially looking at the the starters.
.................ISU............................UT................ISU...................UT
...........................OFF..................................................DEF..........
PPG............A+..8th ITN............B+...................C-.....................C-
FG%...........A+..3rd ITN.............B+..................C+.....................B
3P%...........A+..11th ITN............C-...................C.......................C
FT%...........A+..3rd ITN.............F-..16th WITN.............................
Reb...........C+............................A-..................A.........................D+
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
So basically, ISU has the better Offense (A vs B ) and the better Defense (B- vs C)...So why is this game EVEN? Because Utah has an A- SOS and ISU has a B-. Both teams overall are A- teams thus the game is EVEN.
Bottom line....Because this game is EVEN , the computer thinks that it may be decided at the FT line...If ISU gets 20+ FTA then the game starts to swing toward ISU.
The game is EVEN
That is what they say
No matter who wins
Schertz is coming our way.
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21 minutes ago, MusicCityBilliken said:
How would they handle Dayton if they could only qualify for a play-in game?
Good question...Dayton has an exemption...If they were the play in team ...they would also be the home team. ...
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7 hours ago, juniorbill76 said:
Does the computee consider this a quasi-home game for ISU?
No ...this is considered a neutral game. In order to be considered a home game you have to play in the venue 3 times in a season. An extreme example of this would be if The Bills would play at The Dome at America's Center (the old Rams hangout) or the Enterprise Center (Blues) it would also be considered a neutral court. The "advantage" has to do with different sight lines, a player being "more comfortable" at home , etc. This is not some algorithm the computer invented but is a rule that the NCAA came up with for March Madness in the 1980s. The rule was put into place to prevent a team in the first 2 rounds from gaining home field advantage. Using the hypothetical from above in a real life example...The first 2 rounds of the 2026 NCAA tourney will be held at the Enterprise Center. When The Bills get their Dance ticket with CJS they will be able to play at the Enterprise Center because they will not have played a game there during the season...If they even played 1 game at the EC, the Bills would have to be put in a different venue ...because after they beat UConn in game 1 , the second game against the Illini would be considered game 3 at the EC and therefore not allowed to be played at that venue.
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Down to the wire....As the computer predicted before the NIT started...we wouldn't get an answer to our coaching question until the first week in April. This is the Battle for 2 days... it will be over on Tues or next Thur. After over a 2 week wait another couple of days won't matter. Doesn't this seem like it has been 2 months.
The computer thinks this game may go into OT....2 A- teams that should have been Dancing will try to move into the Championship game with a victory on Tuesday.
The finish line is in sight.
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2 hours ago, Aquinas said:
I dont know anything about Mugassa shooting. Brad is definitely not a stretch 5. I dont see him fitting at all.
I wonder what his computer will say if the Wizz asks Ehat current Billikens players fit Schertz system?
I could have fed individual players in to the computer but instead I fed the whole roster in....
There were 6 players that the computer said could play on a Schertz team...3 sure players and 3 maybe/bench players.
Of course the player it liked the best was Parker but reports say he is not coming back. Another player the computer thought would be good was Hargrove...and we know he is not coming back . Finally, there is Jimerson. If Schertz brings 5 players Jimerson and a few other ISU players might get a few min less /gm which isn't necessarily bad. If he brings 4 then Jimerson and the other ISU players could play their usual mins.
On the maybe / bench players(getting about the same min they got this year).....Hughes(he would need to improve shooting inside the arc)...Thames (he would need to improve FT shooting)...Curcic (he would need to get a few more rebs)
Bottom line...1 player (Jimerson) could make the cut from the entire existing roster....3 could be maybe/bench players...Thames...Hughes...Curcic....the others would not make the cut.
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It looks like the next piece of the puzzle is this game. While it would be interesting to see VCU play against ISU as a gauge against A-10 competition, it really isn't necessary. ISU just beat Cinn ...a team that the computer sees as an equal to Dayton...that should tell you all you need to know about ISU players competing in the A10.
As I mentioned in the Cincy spread thread, ISU and Cinn (and Dayton) are both A- teams. This should also answer any NCAA questions (although a bit too late) about ISU having too weak of a schedule to be a Dancer. Schertz mentioned before Selection Sunday...if they went Dancing it would prove they belonged...if they were not selected he would use the NIT to prove that the NCAA was wrong.
Finally, I am glad ISU won last night. While it seems Lville has moved on ...a loss might have given them a chance to circle back. Adding another week on not only discourages them from pursuing further but it keeps other poachers at bay also. Teams thinking about swooping in on Schertz will now think that if The Ville couldn't sign him, maybe we should look elsewhere as he seems to be taken.
Bottom line...As the computer forecasted, there wouldn't be a coaching decision until the first week in April. In any case, we should have a new coach in the next 6-8 days.
Tick, tick...tick...the finish line is in sight.
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It sounds like Lville is under pressure to hire a coach. Schertz probably told them "nothing happens till ISU loses" because Schertz reads "The Wiz" threads. Lville then sees (they too read The Wiz) that ISU is favored yet again to win tonight. We (Lville ) are not going to wait a week ...we need an answer now....they don't get an answer and decide to move on to Pitino ...a popular name in the Ville.
I think at this point it would be better for ISU to win tonight....A loss might reopen the door tonight for a Cards signing. A win not only forces Lville to move on BUT also sends a hands off signal to other teams in the meantime....Other teams ..."wow this Schertz guy didn't sign with U of L we better look else where".
Tick...tick...tick
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16 minutes ago, willie said:
Unless they have changed the rules this currently would be illegal. Schools can not directly give money to the players.
Not sure how the money will flow...but things will change. Just think back a year or 2 ago and how difficult it was to transfer...In the next few months anybody will be able to transfer at anytime to anywhere..
Pooled money....this too will change
The Wiz's Post Season Review 2023-24
in Billikens.com Main Board
Posted
This review will be a little different than past years because a lot has happened. In the D1 universe you have the twin effects of NIL and Portal. And we are still in the beginning stages of both. NIL continues to spiral upward like an out of control inflation that is turning college sports into Pro sports. And the Portal will soon crack wide open too. Next month, the Portal goes to court to finish what it started...unlimited transfer...anybody can transfer anywhere as much as they want....just like a regular student.
Amid these twin tornadoes, the Billikens seem to be rising from the ashes. The coaching change was more than a regular coaching change...this was more like a paradigm shift. Upping the NIL so that we can compete in the portal....a coach with a different philosophy and a plan....The world has changed ...the coach has changed ...the model has changed.
Of course there will be the doubters...you know them...the "Yeah, but" people. The Eeyore types who say ..."it isn't easy being a Billiken.. something always goes wrong". A decade ago we had a shift with Majerus. A shift can happen quickly, but it needs to go on long enough to become permanent. Sadly in the case of Majerus, he didn't/couldn't stay long enough to make the change a lasting one. I think another couple of years might have been enough. But Majerus was never a long term solution. Hopefully, Coach Schertz will stay long enough to make a permanent difference.
Let's now move on and take a last look at this season. Again , I will take an out of the ordinary detour first...looking at some ISU data . Not only because our future is intertwined with theirs but because they were also a mid major that had issues dealing with the NCAA. ISU finished with a 28 NET....no bid. Yet on Selection Sunday, I had them as a 52% chance to Dance...essentially a coin flip. You would think 28 would be a shoo-in. The NET is just a ranking tool. It doesn't know how many teams are going to be in the selection pot. It doesn't understand how the auto bids affect the discretionary bids. It leaves all that to the humans. My computer tries to calculate the auto bids and then figure out what the chance for a team to get bid after the Selection Committee twists things around. The computer like everyone else has picked up the P5 bias. ..or as the computer calls it ...the P5 effect. The way the chance indicator is supposed to work is that if you have a 50% chance to get in, you should have a decent shot at a bid. Enter the P5 effect...If you have a 50% and are a P5 school...you do have a good chance to get in. But if you are a mid major or lower you need a 70% to have a coin flip. So here is an interesting observation. You remember, how the Committee said they were excluding ISU because they hadn't played a tough enough schedule. I think they met that requirement when they made it down to the final minute of the NIT. Nobody would say the teams they played were weak. ISU proved they were worthy of a bid. On Selection Sunday, the NCAA turns their computer off. I leave mine on. You remember earlier I said ISU chances were a coin flip (52%). I ran the numbers today which included all the games since Selection Sunday and they show ISU with a 61% chance to get in. Should be an easy pick for the Committee. But because ISU is a mid major, the computer shows that the Committee would reject ISU again today. What is the purpose of this discussion? This year's ISU could be next year's SLU...in more ways than one.
OK time to get to the report card...A-10 pre conference forecast vs the finish.
..................Pre conf.............Finish
1. Day..............A......................A-.........-1
2. St. J............B+....................B...........-1
3. GM..............B+....................B..........-1
4. Duq.............B+...................B+.........even
5. VCU.............B.....................B...........even
6. St. B.............B.....................B..........even
7. Rich..............B.....................B.........even
8. UMass.........B.....................B.........even
9. GW...............B-....................C-......-3
10. Dav.............B-....................B-......even
11. Loy..............B-....................B.......+1
12. LaS............C+....................C.......-1
13. SLU............C......................C.......even
14. Fham.........C-.....................C......+1
15. RI................D+....................C......+2
Looks like the key word is parity.
What I look at here is how close did I come to the forecast ..with in one is good.
With in one...87%...13 of 15
A hit (even)...47%...7 of 15
4 teams did a little worse than expected
1 team much worse...GW
1 team did better than expected...RI
2 teams did a little better than expected.
Parity = 9 teams within 1 notch of B (B+ to B- ) ...good but not good enough
...........= 5 teams within 1 notch of C (C to C- ) average....no one wants to be average
Speaking of average....Guess which team is in the exact center of the D1 universe (#181) on my computer....The Bills....Were we good or bad this year?...It was 50-50.
Bottom line...What better way to end the bottom line but with the bottom line of the Billiken Xmas poem....12/24/23
But I heard him exclaim, as he shouted out clear--
BILLIKENS WILL WIN, IT WILL BE BETTER NEXT YEAR
Is it Christmas in April?.....Hopefully a bit of prophesy.