3star_recruit
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Posts posted by 3star_recruit
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18 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:
Nobody is doubting this. But if it's the case, the deeper pocketed teams will simply pick up the transfers. So it's either get deeper pockets, be superior at identifying talent, or convince guys to stay. Those are the three paths to success.
If you want SLU to finish between 4th and 8th in the A-10 every season, this is the path: constantly reshuffle the lineup, bury guys on the bench who might be able to play and want to stay, and fail to bring in any top 100 talent.
The reason Josh Schertz is our coach is because he did a good job of identifying talent in the portal that fit his system and developing a talented freshman. He appears to be following the same blueprint at our beloved SLU.
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2 hours ago, Crewsorlose said:
There's no 10mpg for Schertz. You are either one of the 6-7 rotation guys or you play zero minutes. Multiple games last year he made zero second-half subs.
Coach Schertz has been a head coach for 17 years. Some of those years he plays short rotations, some of those years he plays longer rotations. What are the chances that he plays a short rotation in any given year? I'd say it's 50/50.
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1 hour ago, okay said:
I liked Pikaar but I understand him leaving. Two of the incoming freshmen are also skinny tall builds. Even with a depleted roster he still didn’t see much play time
Every freshman that doesn't play has the same decision to make. Is it worth it to me to fight for 10 minutes a game as a soph or do I just move on? If you can go to another team, put up numbers and move back up with a signing bonus, there's a strong financial incentive to move on.
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15 minutes ago, slu72 said:
On transfers even after being observed in practice, I offer the warning, Beware the Vashon Newborne Syndrome. Folks who observed him at practice said he was can’t miss. Sadly, he didn’t even know where the target was.
Newborne was a two-star recruit out of high school who averaged 11 points a game at juco. The fact that he excelled in practice tells you a lot about where our talent level was back then.
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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:
I no longer have confidence in the prevailing status of college basketball to "develop" players. With free agency in full mode if you don't play them and they have talent it seems too many will move on. The opposite also appears to be true. You don't play them and they think they should have played more they will move on more times than not.
I don't either. But injuries happen. Players get exposed during conference play. That's how McCottry got into the rotation as a freshman. Now we're talking about him as one of our core players when practically no one was talking like that when we signed him.
Kerr or Pikaar have to be ready when the opportunity presents itself.
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2 minutes ago, ACE said:
Pikaar is not going to be the Robbie back-up. We have two more scholarships to give - what positions would you target?
Best player with size available. If he's another 6'8 forward, so be it.
Landing a 6'10 player in the portal with a pulse is tough. If he has decent numbers, the high majors want him. If he never got off the bench, then he's probably not better than what we already have.
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5 minutes ago, ACE said:
Schertz describes Max as more of a wing and not a big... Kerr, I have no idea. I just would rather never count on freshman bigs to contribute in thier first seasons and then hope to be surprised - with 2 to fill, I'd like to see another big in the mix - hopefully a better version of Brockhoff. Competition for playing time is good - use all the scholarships, create competition and depth at every position.
I understand your reticence to depend on a freshman or a sophomore who has barely played for quality minutes. But this is the perfect situation for Kerr or Pikaar. We're not asking them to start or play 20 minutes a game. We just need for one of them to give us 10 minutes a games off the bench.
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1 hour ago, gobillsgo said:
Hopefully a bonafide star. Surely we can afford at least one. Optimistic about the transfers so far but I don’t think we’ve found our Jimerson or Swope yet.
Jimerson wasn't a star when we signed him and Swope wasn't a star when Coach Schertz got him in the portal at Indiana State. The only way the A10 can hang onto relevance in the long term is to excel at talent evaluation and fit.
The way this plays out is exactly what we've seen -- two guys with impressive stats moving up and two guys with middle of the road stats moving down. Let the high majors overpay for the most desired players in the portal. Hopefully some of them will spend themselves into oblivion.
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51 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:
I have fought this good fight before, and evidently have finally lost it, but when did SLU and the A10 become "mid-major?"
Both were once High Major, No Football. The line of demarcation was a mid-major was a one bid league. Regrettably, that is what the A10 has become, Juan Bid in 2 of the last 3 seasons, more by the war of attrition with the Big Five and Football Power 4 with its infamous rigged NET, than by what the A10 has done and not done.
Next question: What is the line of demarcation between a mid-major and a low con? Where do the MAC and MAAC fit in those categories? The MAC was Conference NET #23 of 31 and the MAAC was Conference NET #26 of 31.
A low-major is a program that plays in a glorified high school gym and operates on a shoestring budget. If most of the programs in your conference look like that, you're in a low-major conference.
The A10 has been a mid-major for most of the years we've been in it. A strong mid-major can produce 4-5 bids when its hitting on all cylinders. In this new era of the rigged NET, that will fall to 2-3 bids at best. In some years it will be Juan Bid. In those years, we're spending a lot more money than low-majors without anything to show for it.
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40 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:
And that leads to my question, who is going to sit next season. Does it even make sense to fill all 15 scholarship players, via the portal, or does Schertz give one or two to a "Walk-On". Robbie went 34 mpg, Jones 35 mpg, and Otieno 31 mpg. We have no idea if Jones or Otieno will adapt to Schertz' system, but assuming they do we are already at a crunch for minutes. We all assume McCrotty will be in the high 20's. Not much PT left. As you state, Schertz won't go 9 deep on his primary rotation. He had the option to go 9 deep this season, but elected to keep Brockhoff on the bench. By my definition, Pikaar's minutes didn't qualify as rotational.
(BTW, did you see who lead the NCAA in minute played? Drake's Stiritz at 39.2 mpg followed by his Drake teammate Mascari at 38.3 mpg. Gibson was 3rd.)
There's no downside to filling out all 15 scholarships. There's plenty of kids out here who will happily accept a one-year scholarship at a mid-major to avoid playing at a low-major. They can always move down at the end of the year if it doesn't work out. The low-major is the eternal safety school.
- ACE, billiken_roy and TheA_Bomb
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3 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:
In some way this offseason is a lot like that Moneyball scene where they are trying to replace specific numbers. Personally, I don't necessarily want 2 guys of Swope and Jimerson's scoring #s, I want 4 guys that can replace those points. Really would like to see a deeper rotation around 8-9 guys on a given night.
I think you'll be waiting a long time. I don't believe Coach Schertz has ever had a 9 player rotation in his college coaching career.
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1 hour ago, jonny karate said:
Is it unusual noone else has announced they are transferring?
We usually have 2-3 players transfer out each year. How many transfers were you expecting?
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8 minutes ago, Taj79 said:
Can't seem to find it but where is it explaining just who is setting these so-called portal prices? Where is the rationale?
The best you're going to get are the charts at the bottom of each player profile. I think Mr. Kalinowski is more interested in assigning what a player's value SHOULD be based on his predictive models, not what that player is actually being paid. He could easily sell his services to the schools themselves if his models turn out to be accurate.
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18 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:
Here is where I found it.
Thanks. Appears to be a young data scientist and basketball fan just starting out his career:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-kalinowski1/ -
1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:
https://nkal11.shinyapps.io/portal_database/
Interesting information. (Scroll down to Otieno.) Not sure if he gets $600K from SLU.
Whose site is this?
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12 minutes ago, WUH said:
For some, this is true.
For some, this is entering the work force.
Exactly. Kriisa was a double figure scorer at West Virginia before his disastrous season at Kentucky. If he's willing to move down, he can still make six figures as a starter at a mid-major. Go get that bread, young man.
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27 minutes ago, ACE said:
He’s not a stretch big - only made 12 3s - of course on his highlight video, 2 of those were against us - ha! He seems very much like Anya, but perhaps two biggest differences- 81% from the free throw line.. and perhaps a bit of a better finisher. His video shows a lot of cuts to the basket- something it seemed Schertz said Anya was not a natural at - the way Kent was for him the year before.
Nice breakdown. It's the little things that make the difference between being an offensive asset vs. an offensive liability.
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1 minute ago, WVBilliken said:
But the power schools get mid-major stars who have proven their worth in the college game. The mid-majors get wannabes .... kids who might have a HS pedigree but were not able to prove it at the power conference level and can't get the minutes to show their worth/potential. So why do you think Schertz is looking at D2 stars? I get it.
We're on day 2 of the portal. We can revisit this conversation in a month when more of the players we're recruiting become public knowledge.
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3 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:
I would argue that the metrics by which teams are rated/ranked are actually to blame. It’s no coincidence in my opinion that the mid majors have dwindled since the Quad System was introduced
That too.
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14 minutes ago, ACE said:
And yet only one of those players even played in a Tournament game and no "mid-majors" even made the Sweet 16. Hard to see how the portal and free agency have not adversely affected mid majors, but I'm all ears.
I've already demonstrated that the portal is a two-way street. I'd argue that the gradual disappearance of mid-majors from the NCAA tournament has more to do with the increasing tendency of high-majors refusal to play mid-majors. If they only have 1 or 2 Quad 1 opportunities before conference play, there's not a lot mid-majors can do.
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53 minutes ago, willie said:
Question for 3* I think. Just saw that 37.5% of the starters in the sweet 16 came from lower programs. I believe in the past you told us that the portal would work both ways. That high major recruits who didn't make it at the higher level would move down to the mids and would thrive. You may have some names of this happening but it seems to me it's been players like Casey. I don't think it's been a two way street.
A third of the players on A10 all-conference teams started at high-major programs. About 15% were lateral moves from mid-majors. Swope and Cheeks started out at low-majors. The rest were homegrown.
All-Conference First Team
Reed Bailey, Davidson
Jalen Haynes, George Mason
Xzayvier Brown, Saint Joseph's
Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph's
Gibson Jimerson, Saint Louis
Max Shulga, VCU
All-Conference Second Team
Nate Santos, Dayton
Rafael Castro, George Washington
Jayden Dawson, Loyola Chicago
Erik Reynolds II, Saint Joseph’s
Robbie Avila, Saint Louis
Joe Bamisile, VCU
All-Conference Third Team
Enoch Cheeks, Dayton
Darius Maddox, George Mason
Rahsool Diggins, Massachusetts
Sebastian Thomas, Rhode Island
Melvin Council Jr., St. Bonaventure
Isaiah Swope, Saint Louis -
31 minutes ago, gobillsgo said:
Think the bolded is incorrect. Fair enough on other points. I guess I should say nothing would really surprise me these days transfer wise.
Coach Schertz spent a year recruiting Pikaar while at Indiana State and had him on campus for a visit two months before he took the SLU job. I think it's a reasonable assumption that Pikaar followed Schertz here.
Portal - 2025
in Billikens.com Main Board
Posted
Most teams don't have more than one portal commit yet.