Old guy

I know statistics and and probability but I do not know enough about basketball to criticize what Schertz is or is not doing. One thing I do know is this: at the start of conference play there were 6 teams in D1 that remained undefeated, and 17 teams including SLU with a single loss. Considering that our single loss was by 1 point only and was the result of a Hail Mary shot at the very last seconds of the game, I would think we are in a very nice spot at this time. The issue appears to be, as far as I am concerned, how we are going to stay where we are during the conference play portion of the season.

We plan to be watching the VCU vs Duquesne game on TV coming Saturday. I just want to watch them play to form an idea of how tough our game against them may be.

Thank you.

This is question unrelated to this game. I was checking out the Bills roster and came up with two team member names that I do not recall having seen actually playing this season, not even at times when the walkons were playing. The two players are Badara Diakite, and Luke Lackzkowski. Has anyone seen these two playing in any of the games so far?

The second half was something else, we won by 23 points, made the spread and reached again our highest score in the A10. Fine game, fine play. Now let's go do a real job on VCU. Go Bills!

So far this game has been tougher and closer than I thought it would be. I think we will win but I do not think we will make the spread. Go Bills!

This is what Team Rankings shows today in their overall D1 Rankings and Projections list: Rank Rating Team Proj W Proj L NCAA Bid Champ 32 15.3 Saint Louis (12-1) 27.0 4.0 52.3% 0.1% 46 12.5 VCU (9-4) 22.5 8.5 52.4% 0.0% This is the current (5:40P) Rankings and Projections page. The A10 projected results is separate and different, not directly comparable to their overall projections. Please note that TR projects SLU losing 3 conference games, and VCU is projected to lose 4.5 games. There is no significant difference as of now in the probability of each of the teams getting a bid for the NCAAT. However, and I will be the first one to agree this is a miniscule difference, SLU is given a 0.1% chance of winning the NCAAT, VCU is currently given 0.0% chance. One of the errors lots of people fall into is what I call shopping for the best projections available, this eliminates all the comparability between projections. If you want to make valid comparisons use one system. This way you can compare apples with apples. We will have a chance to compare SLU to VCU directly, at the VCU home coming right after St J's game. I am really interested in seeing how this game develops, and I do think we have a chance to win. We will see soon.

Ok, so you believe that everything is the way it should be. You seem to think that all officials follow the rules they are supposed to be following, like the NET. As far as I am concerned, as long as you limit these beliefs to basketball and other sports, no one gets hurt unless you like to bet.

I think basketball was not invented or used widely at the time of the Civil War. This was a time for wholesale killing, not for new sports. That came later with peace.

Whatever the NET does or is supposed to do, we all know that the Selection Committee will pick a Power Conference school for the at large slots in the NCAAT ahead of school like SLU. So independent prediction systems using different sets of data are more accurate in calculating the probability for a school to get a slot at the Dance, than the NET score taken by itself. So, the NET is broken, if you wish to say so, or it is just not the data used by the selection committee in their choices. This is the way it is, there is no mathematical or factual basis to think the NET determines who who is invited and who is not invited. I think we have a chance to get in if we keep on winning like we have so far.

@The Wiz As I have mentioned before when two totally different prediction systems both using different sets of data come veery close to each other, this closeness adds significant validation to both systems' results. After the game with Principia, whether it was due to the Principia win or not, Team Rankings upped SLU's ranking to 31 from 35. Your system improved SLU's chance to go to the NAACT to 55% at the end of OOC. Team Rankings improved SLU's chance to go to the NCAAT at the end of OOC to 54.3% which gets SLU, for the first time this year, to go above VCU's probability to go to the Dance. VCU went down today to 53.3% which is not a very significant difference against SLU's probability to go. However, the fact that SLU went above VCU for the first time this season is good news for us, and so is the closeness between your results and Team Rankings Thank you for your excellent work and detailed reasoning for the constant changes required for systems like these. I think if is wonderful to be able to provide independent validation of both systems. Go Bills! leave VCU behind.

We all know that the Selection Committee has bounced schools from non power conferences from getting a possible at large slot to the NCAAT and given the slot to power conference schools with worse NET scores. This means that NET scores are not necessarily a way to get an at large slot. SLU has 12 wins and one loss, and has 5 wins with a score over 100. Our ranking has not changed after today's game (not yet) and remains at 35. I have no idea if it will change by tomorrow or not. However as of now VCU's ranking has gone down from 44 to 47. Is this significant? perhaps, I do not know.

I know there has been some discussion about whether or not this game counts for the OOC. I really do no know for sure BUT Team Rankings added this win to our list of wins and losses in the OOC. As per Team Rankings we have 12 wing (this includes today's win) and 1 loss in the OOC. Our ranking prior to today's game (Team Rankings) is 35. We will have to wait until tomorrow to find if we went up or down in ranking because of this win. So far, I believe this game counts a an OOC game for us.

There was no doubt that we would win this game and win we did. We could have made 30 more points but we played the walk ons for a fair amount of time. Anyways we are ready for conference play. Go Bill!

The Principia game is schedules for this Sunday starting at 2:00 P is an excellent time to bring little kids to watch a real college basketball game with cheerleaders, a good band, lots of noise and little games like the golf challenge. If you want to bring your kid with a few of his friends, all of which like basketball, this may be the game to go to. So, the price per seat may be OK for some people.