Old guy

The Bills win against VCU by 9 points at their home arena! Great, we are going to roll ahead and get lots of discussion and talk about the team. Well done! One hell of a tough game which VCU could have won be fouls at the end of the game. But despite all we won. Go Bills!

This is an incredible game, at the half with minuscule score on both sides but favoring St Louis 30 to 22. No idea what the second half will be like but we can win this one. Ii hope none of the players has a stroke or slips and breaks a leg during the half. The second half should be more of the same, hopefully with a similar outcome. Go Bills!

I have a story about horse racing. During my medical residence a friend in the program who was into horse racing, took me up to Pimlico to the horse races. We were in the general admissions area and of course, I lost all the $20 I brought to bet with. He made about $400 that day, and took me to dinner afterwards. Then he asked me what I had seen around me that determined the outcomes. I said horses, jockeys, colors music. He said I was missing the most important factor. So what is it? I asked, he said the people around you, the half eaten hot dogs dropped in the ground, the discarded betting slips. Well of course I had seen them but so what? He said the people around you know nothing about racing, they come and bet because the horse's name brings up some king of "lucky" memory and because they think they will be "lucky". They come with their pay from work and blow the money trying to become wealthy. I said, OK, so how did you manage to win $400 (which in those early 1970s days was a lot of money). The answer was "I study the Racing Form and know more than they do." The spread is, to a significant degree, determined by bettors who by and large know little to nothing about the game. They bet because they know VCU has always (not true) been better than SLU. I am not bragging to know much about basketball, or horse racing either, but I know probability, risk, and statistics, tools I used constantly to estimate future outcomes during my working life. I use this knowledge to guide me in many areas. I think the Bills have a good chance to win tonight. Go Bills!

@The Wiz Team Rankings spread increased to 2.5. From my point of view this increase of the TR spread is meaningless, but it reflects the fact that the betting public believes VCU will beat SLU today. I do not believe this is the case. We will see later on.

@The Wiz Team Rankings spread 1.5 pts in favor of VCU. No change any team can win this game.

This is good news now we must beat VCU to stay where we are. We know we can beat them. Go Bills!

It comes down to that with an emphasis on SLU being the winner.

At this time the only possible valid answer to this question is either team. For a solid answer you have to wait 2 days. My opinion is that this will be a tough game and we will win. Have faith. Go Bills!

Wiz, I have traded the stock market since 1972. When I started getting into AI trading I thought I had found the answer I wanted. However, I have become older and have I abandoned the mathematical approach to trading, I became convinced that finding long term trends through macros and commercial trading patterns worked better for me. Sports are different, but the trends are there and the individual characteristics of individual players and coaches can become clear. Individual characteristics are never as fixed as numerical data, they vary constantly. This variation can be compared in market terms to volatility and variation in aims and techniques used by traders. The fact that you found uncommon paths through which be could really hit VCU hard makes me very happy. As always, thank you for your excellent work.

Things are always changing and the current VCU coach is not Shaka. History is history, now is now. Can they beat us, yes, I think they can. Can we beat them, yes, I think we can. Go Bills!

VCU did not look like an insurmountable mountain to me in the game against Duquesne. They just could not keep a stable lead against Duquesne until they started fouling them in the last few minutes, before that their lead had been as low as 2.

@The Wiz I watched the game VCU vs Duquesne. VCU won by 13 pts, not much. The win could have been by a much lower number, with the exception that VCU started fouling Duquesne to wards the end of the game and Duquesne going to the foul line is like trying to get Hassahn French to score a free throw. This iis where stats and probability can misguide you. I think we will win this game and not by one or two points, This is an opinion, not a computational result. We may be neck and neck with them but I do not think that trying to foul us at the end of the game is a viable strategy against SLU.

Come on Willie, it is not a matter of buying tickets or not, the important thing is to feel good and proud of the way this season is looking for the Bills. We may or may not get where we want to go, but it is OK to feel good about it now.

Loyola Chicago vs Dayton was won by Dayton by only 2 pts, by the skin of their teeth. Interesting.

After the end VCU vs Duquesne I have to say that the only reason VCU won by 13 pts was that they started fouling Duquesne towards the end of the game. Watching Duquesne shooting fouls was like a review of Hassahn French at the FT line, they just could not get them to go in. VCU did not overpower Duquesne during this game. After watching the whole game I think we can beat them.