The Wiz

Yes ...81%...A+

I think you are correct...The 3P numbers were good most of the game and faded at the end when we had a big lead. The real concern, I have at this point is the TOs. But I think these will get better too as we settle down and the team learns to play together.

A nice win last night. For a wrap on the game, see the SEMO spread thread. Before we get into the Chi St game , let me digress for a bit.... There was a lot of chatter on the SEMO spread thread about scoring margin. Let's take a moment to talk about spreads and the NET. The important point here is that when you play Q4 teams (weak teams) it is difficult to move up in the NET no matter how much you win by( more is better but it helps in small amounts). Our pregame grade was B+. An A- gives us a chance to Dance as an at large bid. Also A- gives us a better chance to finish 1st in conference and to win the A-10 tourney. A- means we are playing winning ball. We are not yet there but we are close. So we beat SEMO by 25 pts. We whupped them . Did that have any effect on our NET standings or grade? Very little. We are still a B+ team. As far as the NET is concerned there was little effect. Yes, I know there is no NET at this time but I have a NET tracker program that I use mainly at the end of the season to gauge our post season chances. But at this early stage that program indicates that our NET improvement was negligible. We improved about 1.5% in the NET standings. What does this mean? It means we would have to play 13 more SEMO type games (beating weak Q4 teams by 25 pts. )to improve our chances to reach A- and a worthy NET. Fortunately, we will not be playing all Q4 teams. In the OOC schedule , we will have chances to improve our standing against Grand Canyon, SF and probably Minn.,,,and of course the A10 will be better competition too. We just need to keep winning and things will work out. Game Preview.... We win again. As you can see by the spread there is not much to analyze. Chi St is an F- team (5th worst in D1) We are still a B+ team. Do what we did against SEMO and win by more. Bottom Line... If we play our game, we can blow the Windy City team back to Chicago. We win because we play together as a team.... John Havlichek

A good 1st game. Was it perfect...no. Why?... because it was a 1st game with almost all new players. The important take away is ...we did what we needed to do. Let's take a quick review of what happened and look at some strong and weak spots. Starting with the slash...Here is what it looked like this game....A+/ A+/ F+ / A+...The F+ is 3P shooting. We didn't need it tonight but we will. The other shooting categories were strong enough to overcome the weak 3P shooting (31%) but in the future this team needs to shoot in the upper 30s. TOs...15-9.... We had the 15....not good...nether the 15 nor the 6 TO differential. We gave up an extra 10 pts on TOs not to mention some lost opportunity points. But again it didn't matter because of the next stat. Rebs...We out rebounded them 54-29...As Rammer would say...BALL GAME. This is what not only won the game for us but made up for any weaknesses we showed during the game. Defense was good...here is the SEMO slash...F-/ B+ /F-/ D- plus the rebs mentioned above. We can do a little better near the basket but overall a good first showing Bottom line....The weaknesses ..weak 3P shooting, TOs , some bad passes were a combination of first night jitters and some chaotic play. I love the up tempo pace but there were times we got out over our skis. We need to play fast AND disciplined. This will come with time. We looked better than we did in practices over the summer and fall. We have not yet jelled as a team but we are jelling. We scored 92 pts and we could still improve a lot. Once we do, we could be a very scary team. It looks like there will be many Shake Shack games.

I wanted to respond to IsaacR (the SEMO fan) First, let me say that SEMO has a much larger problem than SLU. Isaac doesn't dispute that we are the better team and that we will win the game. He just doesn't like the big spread...His position is that the Red Hawks are better than we think...they will not be an easy out. It is possible he has had a little too much of the Red Hawk Gatorade. Here are the fact as I see them. As I stated above SEMO is a D team in an F+ conference. What this means is that the OVC will get ONLY 1 bid no matter what happens. That bid will be tied to their conference tourney. The outcome of the SLU game will make no difference in SEMO's chance to dance. The bigger problem for them is Little Rock. I am showing they are the class of the OVC (C+) and should take 1st place easily. If LR was in the A10, they could finish as high as 12th. Meanwhile, I am showing SEMO bunched together with 3 other teams...SIU-e, Tenn St, and S Ind.....meaning that SEMO could finish somewhere between 2nd and 5th place in the OVC. Here is what really makes it look dim for them....The difference between 2nd place and last place in the OVC is SMALLER than the distance between 1st and 2nd place. As for SLU, as I noted above , a win by a big amount will be a little help.....a win by a smaller amount will be no help...this is the problem with playing Q4 teams. As for IsaacR, I hope his team wins all their games after Nov 3. That would be a bigger help than our victory over SEMO.

As @WUH mentioned earlier, I discussed this briefly earlier in the thread but will go into a little more detail. No, the NET doesn't take the spread into account....But there is a ghost spread. The NET does not have a spread because it does not have to bet. However the data to create a spread is there. The weighting and ranking of the data and the teams means that there is an invisible spread. If I had the NET program, my computer could take that data and produce a point spread. What the NET does is take the data and put weightings on each team. It creates the equivalent of an imaginary spread. In the above example , I use Houston and Chicago St. as an example. If The Bills were to play both teams and beat them both by 10 over the Vegas spread the NET would value the Hou win a lot more than the Chi St. win. Thus because of this weighting / imaginary spread, it is more important to beat the poor teams by bigger margins. The reason we are discussing this topic is because of the plethora of poor teams on our schedule this year. Bottom line...BBTB...Beat Bad Teams Big

They are somewhat similar. They use efficiency as the underlying calculation. They both come up with Off Eff and Def Eff which leads to Net Efficiency. And then the NET adds its secret sauce....the adjusted net efficiency. That adds strength of opponent and game location across all games. The NCAA tightly guards the recipe for that algorithm. Two things are for sure about the Adj NET Eff. One...it is the most heavily weighted part of the NET formula and Two...running up the score can have a significant effect on the NET rankings. One last thing. The Adj N Eff is a relative term . If you are playing a strong team you don't need to do much to "run up the score" Say you are playing Houston ...if you beat them by 6 that might be the same as beating Chicago State by 35. Bottom line...The NET is murky...on purpose...and then the Selection Committee does what it wants.

Let's assume from your example, that the next 3 games are all 19 pt spreads in favor of the Bills and we win each of those games by 29. If the 4th game was a 19pt spread, it would still be just as difficult to score 10 over the spread. The 19 indicates that it is the same difficulty between the 2 teams. We may be getting better each time but so might the opponent(s).

No it not a thing in the NET . I was just answering @Lord Elrond that it might be more meaningful to a NET computer if we beat a team by 10 over the spread rather than just 10 pts. If we are supposed to win by 19 and win by 10 the NET would like us less.

What would be impressive to a NET computer would be to beat the opponent by 10 or more points...over the spread.

We win!! That could be the end of this report. The difficulty in analyzing this game is not who will win or lose but how much we will win by. We should win by a lot. The computer is being conservative. Does it really matter whether we win by 19 or 25 pts. In the old days ...no, it didn't matter. But in the NET era the answer is yes. When RPI was the barometer (sorry @billikenfan05) there were built in safeguards to keep the scores from being run up. After you had a 10 pt lead, the scoring margin algorithm put in a diminishing return until you reached 20pts. After 20 pts, there was no additional advantage to running up the score. With the arrival of the NET, the scoring margin algorithm disappeared. BUT it was buried in the new code under Offensive Efficiency...OE is the ghost of scoring margin. Scoring margin is still in the formula but it is hidden. Why is it hidden? Because the NCAA didn't want to encourage schools to run up the score. However, the fact that it is hidden doesn't change the fact that it is even more important. It makes up approximately 60% of the NET score. Running up the score helps your NET score ... a lot. This is called the "Colgate effect". That is because at the beginning of the NET, Colgate figured it out and proceed to pound bottom feeders in bottom feeding conferences. When the top 20 NET standings came out you would see teams like Duke, Michigan, NC and Colgate. So why am I discussing this in a game analysis about SEMO. Because this is a way out if the dilemma SLU face as a mid major. While it would be nice for the Dance to expand or we make a move to the Big East, the real answer is to play Q1 teams. Instead of lamenting the poor schedule we have this year (and it is a weak one) we need to not only beat these teams but pound them. That would improve our NET and maybe get us an at large bid ...BUT more important... by winning big we could become a Q1 team and then be able to schedule other Q1 teams next year and thereafter. Let this be the start of a series of big point spread wins. Game Preview The Bills start the year as a B+ team. If we want to Dance we will need to get that up to at least an A-. Very doable at this point. The A10 also comes in as a B+ conference . Over the years the A10 has generally ranked between B- and A- . Meanwhile our opponent SEMO grades out at D in an F+ conference (OVC). We could talk about their players or what defense the Red Hawks will play but I think the point spread says it all. WWN2D2W... We just need to do what we have been doing in the scrimmages and we will be fine. I would like to see us cut down on TOs but that will come. I think our depth will lead to the big point spread. We have subs who can play at a high level/start and are trying to earn extra minutes. Even if the game is decided early, players should keep the intensity high as they look for more playing time. Higher intensity for more time equals bigger point spread wins. Bottom line... If we play our game...we will SEMO wins for The Bills.

Now that we have taken a look at the Bills preseason prospects , let's zoom out and look at how The Bills fit into the A10. Again we will have a better understanding after all the teams have played 8 games and we have some real data to work with but for now let's see what it looks like. Here is what the A-10 looks like preseason. Teams with same grade are essential equal so you can swap teams in the standings with the same grades. 1. Bills....B+ 2. Day....B+ 3. VCU...B+ 4. GM....B 5. GW....B 6....Loy...B 7...Duq....B- 8..RI.......B- 9..Rich...B- 10..St. B...B- 11...St. J...B- 12...Dav...C+ 13...For...C 14...LaS...C- A few observations here.... The first word that comes to mind is ...parity. There isn't that much difference between most of the teams. One thing at least at this point is we start with NO true bottom feeder. Yes, there will be a last place finisher but this is one of the few times where the A10 has started with no Ds or Fs. And this is also a much smaller number below B- (only 3). So the A10 has improved from the bottom up. It is also one of the few times where there haven't been any A teams to start. The computer does think that any or all 3 of the top 3 teams could become A- or higher. Right now we are 1 bid conference. The chances for a 2 bid conference would be 50%...3 bid conference 20%. For the Bills it shakes out like this.... Scenarios... Best case 16-2...1st pl Most probable 13-5...1st pl Worst case...10-8...5th pl Now let's look at some early indicators...other teams we have played /scrimmaged with and did well against. Iowa....A- ...would finish 1st in A10 Bradley...B....would finish 7th in A10 Finally, lets look at the A10 opponent exhibitions and see what their grades are and where they would hypothetically finish in the A10 ....................................................................non A10 team and their A10 finish St. Joe 64, Seton Hall 59................................B..............................6th Dayton 78, Penn State 62...............................B..............................4th DePaul 92, Loyola 90 OT...............................B+.............................3rd Georgetown 73, George Washington 64.......B................................5th Villanova 70, VCU 51.....................................A-................................1st Richmond 63, James Madison 58................C+................................11th Duquesne 83, Virginia Tech 81.....................B+................................5th Bottom line...So far so good...The computer thinks that The Bills have a chance to be the class of the A10.

Yes that is one way to look at it. As long as it is blue(Bills)berry pie.

They are not cumulative probabilities. They are separate calculations and can't be added together. Let's look at an example. Let's assume Schertz was coaching ISU...let's further assume he had a NET of 29 at the end of the season and does not have an auto bid. His chances of getting a Big Dance bid are around 60%. In a separate calculation his chance of getting an NIT bid are around 90%. As it turns out he doesn't get the 60% Dance bid. The NIT bid then kicks in at 90% and he is off to the NIT. These are sequential but separate events. ISU did not have a 150% chance of post season play BUT they did have a 90% chance for post season play. Applying the above to the Bills this season...the Bills have a 31% chance to Dance and a 73% chance for post season play....same as my original post but said differently. Why didn't I say that to begin with? Because I think fans would like to know their chances for each option. Hmmm....Probably not a good idea. If we turn the Armory into a Wiz/ Billiken data center the AI will demand a 9 figure NIL contract....while The Wiz works for Good Post points.

For the newbies on the Board...... Those that have followed me over the years, know that a key game for me is the 8th Div 1 game of the season. It is after that game that I not only have enough information to make more accurate game forecasts but season forecasts. I will make another Bills season forecast after the 8th Div 1 game...LMU on Dec 2. In the meantime, I will continue to show spreads using Bayesian models transitioning into real data for the 1st 8 D1 games....e.g. ..after 2 games 25% real data mixed with the Bayesian model....after 6 games 75% real data mixed with the Bayesian forecast. So the question is ...why do a preseason review?....The answer is the Bayesian model has been surprisingly good and since this is not an either or situation , we can do both. Before we get to the meat of the review , let's look back at an updated chart...The Schertz 3 year college records.... ..................Lincoln Mem U..........Ind St U...........SLU 1st yr.............14-14.......................11-20................19-15 2nd yr...........20-10......................23-13.................? 3rd yr............27-2........................32-7...................? Based on these previous starts, it should be a good year. Now let's look at the practices. I was at both of the official practices and you could see a big jump in improvement from July to Sept. More importantly, you could see a quantum leap between last year and this year's team. While you could look at various characteristics (better defense, more shooters, quicker play) the underlying improvement in all areas ties to more depth. Everything is better with more quality players. Talk of red shirting uninjured players who could have easily started in previous years is a good sign...both in depth and quality players. And with few players back from last year, the fact that the team seems to be coming together quickly is a good omen. As for the practice games, we had a good showing against Iowa (A- and a potential Dance team) and Bradley (B...tied with Belmont for the projected MVC title and another potential Dancer). Now, let's see what the computer sees for The Bills in it opening salvo of the 25-26 season. First, it is showing that the Bills come out of the gate as a B+ team. This is good news and bad news. The bad news is that in order to be a Dancing team in March you should have an A-. The good news is that in preseason analysis the leeway is 2 notches in either direction. So in this case, The Bills have upside to A (A- and A...2 notches up). In addition, they are tied with VCU and Dayton at B+. So there is no team in the A-10 that is better than The Bills at this point in time. Positive signs for the Bills chances. Let's take a look at the projected record.... Scenarios Best case.....29-2 Most probable ...25-6 Worst case...21-10 Chance to Dance... 31% NIT Chance ...73% Finally, I want to deal with some things that the computer doesn't know how to deal with because it really doesn't understand...which is why it is called artificial intelligence. First there is the gel... if that doesn't confuse the computer ...it certainly does when I make it a verb...gelling. It thinks I am talking about a chilled see through dessert. The other item is chemistry. It wants to know what a science course has to do with basketball. Now that the machine is turned off , we can talk amongst ourselves. Chemistry has everything to do with gelling. The good news is that in the early going it looks like the team has good chemistry. A tip o' the cap to Coach for melding those players quickly. The gelling is starting to happen. Bottom line...If we continue to gel and can stay healthy, good things can happen... watch this space after Dec 2nd for an update. We win because we play together as a team.....John Havlicek...Boston Celtics