The Wiz

Reports from a number of sources are saying the NCAA has agreed in principle to a 76 team format for next year. They still need to take a final vote on the proposal but the 76ers think they have enough votes. The way this would work is there would be 52 auto bids plus 24 play-in bids. The 24 play-in teams would play 12 games at 2 sites. For those not following along...52 ABs = 12 PIG games(24 teams) = 76 teams....12 PIGs eliminated= 64 team bracket In some ways this will change things , in other ways not so much. The good news is more teams will be able to have a Chance to Dance. The bad news is the NCAA is still in charge. Let's take a look at an example.. Coming into this year, my data is showing the A-10 is a 1 bid league. Now let's assume hypothetically, the new 76 rules come into effect this year instead of next year. My computer is showing the A10 would be eligible for 3 bids...1 auto and 2 play-in bids (eligible means you are in the discussion).....And yes SLU would be one of the 3 teams. But then comes the NCAA cloud of uncertainty. Let's assume SLU finishes with a NET of 52. ...looks like a chance for an at large bid if we don't win the A10 tourney or at least a good shot at a play-in spot. ...right?...Time for a trivia question...Do you know a coach who recently had a 29 NET and whose team was shunned by the Committee?....Hint...his initials are JS. So the problem for SLU is still the same...does the Committee go with SLU with a projected NET of around 60 this year or choose an SEC bottom feeder like South Carolina with a NET in the upper 80s? Enquiring minds want to know. For me, the new format would change my Madness predictions. For those who have followed me for awhile, you will remember that if I gave a team a rating of B+ they would have about 1 chance in 3 of making the Dance. With recent changes (NIL , NET and Portal) you now need an A- to have an 80% chance to Dance. If the Madness expands to 76 teams then a B+ will have about a 75% chance. But again , your conference may be more important than your NET. Let the fun begin...Just a couple more weeks to my Pre Season forecast.

Soccer is a little out of my league but it looked to me like the the key moment in the the LaSalle game on Sat was near the end. With 2 min and 5 sec left in the game , SLU was winning (2-1) when the ref awarded LaS a penalty kick. For the uninitiated (like myself) here is a breakdown of the play. The LaS player is 36 ft from the goal in the middle of the field. He is facing the SLU goalie Grad Student Jermi Abonnel (6 ft tall)....The goal is 8 ft tall and 24 FEET LONG. There is nobody between him and the goal. Time out here for some background. We have just sat through 88 min of laborious play...victory is so close and now it looks like the win will be snatched away. There are whisperings in the crowd about the curse. Some in the crowd are holding their breath ....some head to the garage to get a quick start on the traffic(don't you just love these fans) A hush comes over the crowd. The LaS player fires a rising rocket shot headed for the corner area of the goal....When all of sudden in a burst Abonnell explodes and goes flying through the air for a miraculous save ....The crowd goes wild...people come running back from the garage to see why soccer fans are going wild. And SLU goes onto win the game. And a pissed LaS team starts a brawl at the final buzzer. It ain't basketball but it was a fun time.

I like this post. It was made to poke fun at our weak schedule (and rightfully so) BUT it is actually something we should strive for every year...ie to be our toughest opponent. Imagine if we had a difficult schedule made up of all 1s and 2s. And then make the statement we are our toughest opponent. If our toughest opponent is us then we should go on to win all our games. If we win all our games then next year we will have a better schedule because good teams want to play good teams. And then again next year, you would want us to be our toughest opponent leading to another schedule upgrade and so on. To paraphrase Pogo...We have met the opponent and he is us.

Billikens looking good. This practice was a big improvement over the July practice. Still some rough edges but a lot of them are smoothing over. The team is starting to gel...they aren't yet gelled but they are getting there. A few sloppy TOs and a few missed FTs , spacing not quite right...BUT a lot to like. Some razor sharp passes on cuts to the basket ...a few alley-oops converted into slam dunks and a few back door passes converted into easy lay ups. Oh yeah, there was defense too. Random observations... This team is better than last year's team...they will win more games. Biggest difference....depth Biggest change in the team play (as a result of the depth) ...speed of the game...This team looks different from last year, not just because of personnel changes but in the way they play...that passing around the outside of the arc looking for a shot has given way to run and gun...the 3 is still important but the tempo is different...faster....and that is a good thing. We will be harder to defend and we will wear teams down... AND with the extra depth we have more energy to defend and bother teams. Best pleasant surprise...Coming off knee surgery , Brown looks good. He hasn't lost a step in 8 weeks. Passing ...shooting ...defense ...all there. He will be a difference maker. Other difference makers...last year's team...Anya, McCottry and Thames...all playing a step quicker and all of them doing what they do a little bit better. Finally Dunlap, he too will make a difference shooting and passing. Stand out player....Diakite...Agressive on rebounding , defense and going to the basket. What to look forward to...In addition to the players I have mentioned above , there are 5 other players who could be star of the game on any given night. Cold start on 3 P shooting and then we started to hit.... a lot of outside threats. With so many who can hit from the arc there should always be someone to make 3s. Bottom line...Should be a better year than last year AND more entertaining and exciting to watch. The clock is now ticking again...38 days to go...tick..tick..tick

It is interesting to note that in its post conference tournament hype, the A-10 in listing the attributes of Pittsburgh (this year's host of the A10 tourney) mentions that Pittsburgh is the geographic center of the A10 conference. It makes you pause and go...Hmmm.

Rivals review........ PG Jermel Thomas played a flashy game. He had very good floor vision and was able to throw passes from multiple angles at each level of the floor. He was exciting in transition and touched the paint in the half-court. While he popped with the ball in his hands, the most interesting part for me was his on-ball defense. The 6-foot-0 PG guarded with a great motor....... Looks like a good get.

@Old guy...that was Dion Brown...expected back late Sept. Over all impression of practice. ...We are starting to gel but still have a ways to go. We are starting to play as a team but are still rough around the edges. Passing was not crisp or accurate.(mainly long passes)...there were though some excellent assists on cuts to the basket. There was some good shooting by Jones, Sharma and Green but others are still trying to find the range. Otieno looked good around the basket ...both finishing and rebounding. Avila looked like Avila but not quite ready for prime time yet but will be ready by Nov. McCottry playing some nice D. ...needs to work on finishing. Kerr looks like he is auditioning for the part of Avila. Taller and more athletic ...just needs some more experience. Dunlap looked good in the first practice and kind of disappeared in this one....Green is looking good both ball handling and shooting. Players of the night ...Sharma & Otieno & Jones...good all around game Upside potential guys...Laczkowski, Kerr and Diakite. Bottom line...If this team tonight had played the March 2024-25 Billikens it would have been pretty close. The difference going forward is this team has a lot more depth and upside potential. The questions are how much of that potential will be realized and how quickly will the team gel....If the answers are ..a lot and soon then this could be a very good year.

Here is my take...We are bigger... more aggressive...more physical ...faster...more athletic....We are still rough around the edges(they have only practiced a couple of weeks) but are looking good at this point. Players to watch... Best additions ...Otieno and Dunlap Nice looking shot...Sharp Shooter Sharma Healthy player...Thames played a lot of minutes with no seeming problems. Best freshman in a while...Kerr and Laczkowski...thin big guys who are athletic and can shoot. Knows what he is doing...Brown...has good floor sense and can shoot. Most improved from last year...Anya and McCottry...both more aggressive and playing more defense. Lost weight and is in better shape...Avila...he can still shoot and pass. Big difference maker...Jones....he can do it all Best Kwamain Mitchell impersonator...Green...he has that potential Bottom line...This will be a better team than last year and should win more games...check back with me on the first week in Nov. Go Bills

That is what the NCAA says it is trying to prevent. Swope mentioned in this article in the NY Times about college eligibility for athletes. He is one of 137 players seeking extra time after running out of eligibility. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6338236/2025/05/08/mens-college-basketball-eligibility-transfer-portal/ If the link is blocked you should be able to google the article and it will let you read it.

And now for our next 2 players... Brady Dunlop and Ishan Sharma... On Brady Dunlop there is not much to see. He played 2 seasons at St. Johns and does not have a full sample size...even if I combine the 2 seasons. So nothing to really grade out. He has 3 issues to overcome to be successful at SLU....1) Injuries...2)Layoff...3) Limited stats...Let's look at each... 1) Injuries...In the last season he had 2 major injuries both resulting in surgeries. A UCL injury on the thumb last Dec which took about 6 weeks to heal up. Even though he healed he was never really able to test the hand in a game because he had an abdominal tear which shut him down for the rest of the season. The ab surgery was in Feb. He began light workouts in March and will be able to do full workouts starting in June. So after these 2 surgeries will he be able to preform at the same high level as beforehand. Which leads us to #2... 2) Layoffs...His last game was Dec 18 , 2024. Between Mar 2024 (end of freshman year) and Nov 2025 he will have played 165 min (10games). Not much playing time over 19 months and 2 surgeries...Will he be able to come back and preform at a high level? 3) Limited stats...The data is not just limited but erratic. In his freshman year he had a small sample size...If I had to grade that it would have been an F....His soph year ...the injury year...the data size went from small to miniscule. Again if I had to grade it ...it would have been an A. .... small sets of data at opposite ends of the spectrum. Bottom line.... While there isn't much to go on the hope is he will be able to recover and preform at a high level given that he will have a full summer and fall to practice and get back into shape. The one really positive sign is his numbers between Freshman and Soph vastly improved. And while it is a small sample size it is still a positive trend. Final grade = H...for hopeful. Ishan Sharma Again a player with not a whole lot of stats. While he played 29 games, he averaged just under 13 min a game. A couple of things stand out in his stats...First he is a 3P shooter ...80% of his shots are 3P shots. Unfortunately only a third go in which grades him out at a C. Hopefully, under the Schertz system he will get better looks and take better shots and move that average up a little bit. Very doable. The second thing that stands out to me is the Asst/TO ratio....He grades out at A+ AND this is not a small sample size. Many on this board have clamored for ball handling skills and playmaking. Nothing better epitomizes those 2 attributes than the A/TO ratio. This may be the ball handler and playmaker we are looking for. This looks like a good get. The picture is starting to clear.

I think the go to stat on your question is Ast/TO ratio....important to ball handling and creating offense. His numbers are pretty good here...1.73...generally 1.6 to 2+ is an A. For some context ....SLU finished at 1.16...A C+. An even ratio(1-1) is a D+ . So in addition to the slash line the A/T ratio looks good and throw in 3.7 rebs and he looks very good.

You would think so. But that's not the way it works. This is somewhat of a quirk for a few reasons. One is the sample size for 2P shots is not full size. The second reason is the weightings of the 2 variables are disproportionate (twice as many 3PA as 2PA) . So then if you move in closer to the basket on 2s and take the same amount of shots , you will make a few more 2P shots and because of the small sample size the 2P % will move up quicker but not enough to make an A+. Finally, 2P shooters generally shoot higher % than 3P shooters and historically 3P shooters have a lower FG% because they are taking more 3s. Bottom line...The grading of the 2 categories(2s and 3s) are done separately unlike a box score where you would add the 2 together to come up with a FG%(which is also calculated separately). You get separate grades that won't add up when put them together. I think when analyzing a player it gives you more information.

This is a little out of the box for me...ie giving a review of a player who has neither committed or visited yet BUT he has listed us as a top 5 finalist and there is something interesting in his review. First let's look at his report card... ..........................FG%....3P%....2P%...FT% Pjay Smith..........D+.......A+........D-.....A+ A couple of notes here ...the 2P stat is not a full sample size (about 2/3) . That is because this guy is a 3P shooter...ie he makes more 3s than 2s. Another note is his FG% and 2P% are poor because he takes a number of long 2s. He only takes about four 2s per game( he takes twice as many 3s). If he could up his 2P% he would have a pretty flashy report card. "What if"... The computer wanted to keep going and do a "what if".... What if Pjay had played under Schertz last year? Here is what his report card would have looked like.... ..........................FG%....3P%....2P%...FT% Pjay Smith..........B+.......A+......A+.......A+ The computer took Pjay's shot chart and the average Schertz shot chart and overlaid it on to Pj's. It took away the long 2s and that small change not only changed his report card but upped his average from 17.6 to 18.6 PPG. It showed he made an extra 2 every other game. A very small change but a big difference. Who knows whether he will sign with us but the point is that Schertz doesn't need the best players...He needs the right players. Players that can fit into his system. The "what if" also showed his assist total going up too. The "what if" example shows how Schertz can fix players and what the results might look like. Bottom line...This guy would be a good get...but even more important is that it is all about finding the right players.

Congrats Steve...You are like the Florida of this bracket winning a close one at the buzzer....I guess that makes me Houston. The computer doesn't get its Data-bytes treat tonight.

I usually wait till a player commits before I do a review. But I think when somebody from the portal visits I will do a review. So today we will look at Jamir Simpson from So Utah (WAC). UT is a D- team and has a C SOS. As a reference The Bills are B & B, so this is a step up for him. Let's look at his slash..... FG%.....3P%...2P....FT D- / C / F / A+ A couple of points here....First ..Why don't I use the efficient FG% stat which might be better than using FG%. eFG% is definitely an improvement over just using FG%. BUT it is not an improvement over using 2P% and 3P% which give you more info. The reason there is an eFG is because many times the 2P% is left out of the slash. By listing the 2 and 3 pt shots you get more info especially related to Schertz teams. Most fans outside of Schertz world say...his teams are the 3P shooters. While that is definitely an important part of the game what many don't realize is Schertz teams have lead the nation in 2s. Last year ISU was #1 in 2P%...this year The Bills were # 3. Which bring us back to Simpson ( and Green in the earlier post above). Simpson's numbers on FG and 3P are 41.5 and 33.9%...a D- & C. If we look at the eFG it is 46.3%...which grades out at F....The higher number looks nicer but in reality grades out worse. ( a C grade would be around 50.5) So not flashy report cards BUT there is a striking similarity not only between Simpson and Green but in other Schertz recruits.. He is not looking for that hot player (although he will take them if he can get them)...he is looking for someone with a lesser line who can be "fixed". Of course all coaches think they can fix players but with Schertz it is different. Part of the "fixing" is fitting into his system. That is, shooting 2s closer in. It is just logical that when you take closer in shots you will make more of them. And the pattern of the fixed players has been their 2P% goes up which in turn pushes up their FG% which in turn opens up 3 P opportunities, which increases scoring. This is a simplified version of what he does but this is the basic premise. Many of the players with weaker numbers take many mid and long range 2s. Majerus used to say the long 2 was the worst shot on the floor. In the end, not ever player can adjust to this system but the ones who do find success. So in terms of analysis , it comes down to whether Schertz can find the right players for his system....ones who can adapt. History says yes he can...we will find out in the coming year whether history repeats itself.