The Wiz

My computer is saying it thinks the 2nd game of the West Coast tourney will be Minn. Also in my preseason forecast I had us as most probable at 5 losses ...with best case at 2 losses.

I would say if we go 30- 0, we would be an A team and would be worthy of a bid in the Committee's eyes...even with the bias. In previous posts I have mentioned the "Colgate effect"...where a non basketball power was able to work the NET by playing an all cupcake OOC schedule and then then rolling through the Patriot conference with big scoring margins. You think the A-10 gets no respect...try playing in the Patriot conference. Yet they fooled the NET which had them as a top 10 team. Of course the Committee "punished" them with a 13th seed but I would take a 13th seed. We are in a much better conference and will play some very challenging games that can boost our NET ratings substantially with some wins. Schertz has a plan...trust the force.

To your point...there are other factors including PR....such as you get a few points for the AP polls or as you pointed out there may be a make up call for Schertz. Bottom line is we still have to win.

There has been some discussion recently about The Dance Selection with some saying it doesn't matter what we do... we are screwed and that the NCAA will only take the Big Boys while other say it matters and we have a chance with a good record and the right numbers to Dance. Let's break it down a bit. This is a 2 part question......Part 1 ....Is about the day before Selection Sunday....Part 2...Is about Selection Sunday The answer to the question is....Part 1 ....Yes....Part 2.... No Part 1.....Pre Selection Sunday Yes, the NET matters in part 1. This is the Evaluation Tool the NCAA ranks teams with. It is not an NCAA Selection Tool. The NET's job is to come up with suggestions for the Selection Committee to review and make a final decision as to who Dances. This is not a transparent process. Both the NET and the Selection Committee are shrouded in secrecy. Some say the NET formula is buried in Fort Knox next to the gold. While some say the gold may be gone , they are sure the NET is there. Be that as it may, we do have some facts. One is there are 31 conferences that get an auto bid. 68-31= 37 remaining bids. In addition, there are some teams who get in and don't win their conference tourney and yet are "deserving"....maybe they finished 1st in conf or a top 25 team(NET or AP) or they play in a P4 conf or maybe they play in a conference where everybody makes it in (SEC). These are called almost auto bids...no deliberation... it is an almost bid....Another fact is the Committee says it selects from the remaining teams 15-25 bids. So now we take 37- (15 to 25)= 12-22....So in summary ...we have 31 auto bids ....12-22 almost auto bids and 15-25 bubble teams who will make it in but only after deliberation. The reason Part 1 matters is for these 15-25 teams. Of course, it matters to the almost bids too so they can get their ranking. Which brings us back to the NET formula....What is known about the NET is that the most important part of the puzzle is scoring margins ( or Off efficiency). What ever you call it the more you win by the better your numbers will be. And the better opponent you beat (see Q1-4) there is a multiplier effect. Bottom line...If you want to be one of the 37 teams, win often and big especially against good teams. Now let's look at Part 2.... No, part 2 doesn't matter. I think this is the part that aggravates fans. The facts...The Committee says they throw away the NET after they have chosen their 50 or so teams. (13 more teams that are discussed but won't make it) Again if you want at least to be in the discussion you need to be one of the 50 teams. The selection of these teams is subjective...particularly the last 20 teams of this group. What happens here is the committee votes and those that get a majority are in ...those that are left go on to another vote ....those with little or no votes are also dropped.....and so and so on till the bracket is filled. One final note ....2 years ago Schertz at ISU finished at 29 on the NET and the Committee did not offer a bid. They talked about a weak schedule and kind of glossed over the NET rating...It reminds me of the cup of sugar..... Sam comes over to a neighbor's house to borrow a cup of sugar... Sam asks Joe...Can I borrow a cup of sugar? Joe...No Sam ...Why not? Joe ...Because it's raining? Sam ...What does that have to do with anything? Joe...Nothing ...I just don't to give you the sugar and that's as good as any reason. Bottom line....Just keep winning...big.

Thanks for the update.... Here is what I see for RI this year... A 7th-10th A-10 finish with a .500 record. RI holds the distinction of having the weakest SOS in conference....8th worst in the nation (yes ...worse than ours). Check back on Feb 15 when I will do a more detailed analysis on RI. In the meantime , good luck.

First the computer changed the spread about 10 hours ago to 7 pts...but that is still double what was predicted. Of course, the computer is greedy because of the scoring margin factor in the NET. The computer's answer is 14 is great but 21+ would have been even better. My take is Schertz should have left the starters in for 1 more basket. Why?... because With 3:28 left in the game we had a 78-53 lead. By going for the shake shack basket you would not only have pleased the crowd but would have held onto a larger scoring margin. How do we know this?... because I ran a simulation of the final 3:28 of the game. In that simulation we score with 2:40 left making the game 80 -53. At that point we put the subs in and play a little slower ...we don't score anymore and GC scores 6 more pts...Final 80-59 ...we win by 21 pts and the crowd is "shacking". In Schertz defense, he apologized to the crowd after the game saying he had a dilemma. He wanted to get the 80 but he also wanted to give the subs some playing time. The simulation shows how he could have done both. In addition , Schertz also said he thought we made 80 on the last play of the game on the shot Jaden Schertz took as time ran out. He thought there was goaltending on the play and probably should have had it reviewed. But all in all a great win for the Bills or should I say a Grand win. McCottrey was the star of the game with 20 pts shooting 61.5%. Brown was flying through the air with a staggering 15 rebs and Green had an amazing +26 plus/minus. Here is the simplest summary of the game.....Bills shooting slash....B+/ B+ / A / A+...GC slash ...F- / F- / F-/ A+ ...and if we grade the Bills slash minus the final 3:28 min...they finish with straight A+s. So back to your original question...does the computer like the outcome of the game. The simple answer is yes. For the next question ...How much will this help us? It should give us a nice boost. Enough to move us to an A- ? ...maybe but if not we will be a lot closer to it. For the final answer , we will have to wait till tomorrow. Our ranking, grades and spreads are not just dependent on our game but on all the other games played in D1. Everything is connected in the D1 Universe. In any case , we are in better shape now than we were yesterday. Just keep winning.

Update ...Looks like starting guard for G Cany Moore will not play...he was previously listed as questionable. The computer's current spread is Bills by 7.

The computer likes pi(e)

There has been some talk on this thread about the spread for this game only being 5 pts. The question then is...Why doesn't the computer drink blue Kool Aid. First, let me say that if we shoot like we did against Lindenwood we will easily win by double digits. The answer to the question as to why the computer doesn't show us any respect is SOS. SLU has an F- schedule in the first 3 games....2nd worst in the A10 and 9th worst ITN. (Fordham holds the distinction of having the worst schedule ITN) Basically, the computer just wants to "see" the kids play...someone decent. And it will on Sat night. If we do what we are supposed to do ...then the computer will give us our due.

In case of blue kool aid...take 1 or 2 Wiz posts before bed and call me in the morning..

GC is a good team...they grade out as a B...we are at B+...This will be the first real test for the Bills...if we shoot like we did against Lwood , we will win by double digits. For more info reread the original post in this thread.

Yes, PPP is part of the reason we got a C. I am trying to keep the report card simple so you can get the highlights quickly. You could argue we don't really need to add 2P% because it is included as part of the FG% but in the Schertz era close to the basket 2P% is an important part of the equation. It works out because nearly all 2P shots are close to the basket. When looking at shot strategy one of the goals is to balance 2s and 3s...ie multiplying 2% shots by 1.5 because 3s are worth 50% more. If you look at the Lwood game we shot 75% from the 2 area.....10.5 of 21 3PM would equal 50% from the arc a perfect match for the the 2s (50x1.5=75)...we shot 11 3PM... as close as you can come. The 2P% is rarely shown in the box score slashes and in most cases the FG% is good enough. The fact that we are 12th ITN in 2s is not an accident. Yes , we have good shooters but we are in the top 12 now (and at the end of the season.) because it is part of the strategy. I will continue to list the 2 shot in the report card and WWN2D2W and in the post game reviews. Btw, I expect us to be in the top 5 by the end of the season as some of the flash in the pan teams fade as the season progresses.

Well, we have had a few games to warm up. Now the real show begins. The Bills remain as a B+ team. We have come through the first 3 games unchanged. It is not that the computer was unimpressed with our start. To the contrary, the machine thought we were good from the beginning. So winning by big amounts was expected. The computers logic is I gave you a good grade from the start even though there were many unknowns and the Bills have done what they were supposed to do. Now show me something against a tougher team...which takes us to the game preview. Game preview... G Cany comes in as a B team. The Antelopes are a good team with some skilled players. This will not be easy BUT as you can see, the computer has faith in the Bills. One of the GC starters is injured (Moore) and is questionable for Sat but GC has pretty good depth. They don't have a lot of weaknesses EXCEPT defending the 3. If we can have a good day (or even an average day) from the arc, we should be able to beat them. One of their strengths is keeping the opponent from rebounding. Let's make our shots on the 1st try. Their key players are Henley ( a 6'7 guard who can shoot...I am not worried... he is a 6 - 7 )....Anane (a 180 player who is a double -double threat) and Williams (Their 3pt shooter). We have the players who can defend them. If we play our game minus a few TOs we should win. Now let's look at the Card and see what's up.... Report Card.... I have added a new line on the report card...2P%...The short 2P shot is important in the Schertz system so I have added it to the report card. We have a great offense that is better than the Lopes and a pretty good defense ...slightly better than the Lopes. ................SLU..................GC.....................SLU......................GC ...........................OFF...................................................DEF.......... PPG...........A+..18th ITN....B-......................C............................C- FG%..........A+..15th ITN....B+......................B-..........................C 2P%..........A+..12th ITN....B........................B.............................B- 3P%...........B+...................B-.....................B..............................D- FT%..........A......................A-....................................................... Reb............B.....................C.......................A...............................A+..9th ITN OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Tops In The Nation SLU... FTs....Jones & Otieno...1st ...tied with many players Stls.....Thames...36th Injuries... GC Moore...Questionable....Face injury SLU...none Keys to the game....Make 3s...GC is weak defending the arc....but they are good at keeping the other team from rebounding. Since this is a much better team than the ones we have so far played it is crucial to keep TOs down especially in the first half. WWN2D2W..... Target slash...55/ 60/ 40 / 80....Keep TOs down...12 would be good ...6 in the 1st half would set the tone....PF 17... Hold their big 3 (mentioned in the game preview) to 35 pts combined. Bottom line... Sung to the tune of Home on the Range.... Oh give me a home Where the Chaifetz all roam and the Bills and the Antelope play Where seldom is heard about the Dance bid word A win and we will be all on our way.

One of the things I have hammered away at this season is the importance of winning big/scoring margin/ offense efficiency. What ever you would like to call it ...it is an important calculation in determining the NET. Keep winning big and we will be there at the end.

From my Preseason forecast..... Let's take a look at the projected record.... Scenarios Best case.....29-2 Most probable ...25-6 Worst case...21-10 Chance to Dance... 31% NIT Chance ...73% And also from that same thread Right now we are 1 bid conference. The chances for a 2 bid conference would be 50%...3 bid conference 20%. For the Bills it shakes out like this.... Scenarios... Best case 16-2...1st pl Most probable 13-5...1st pl Worst case...10-8...5th pl