The Wiz

There is no question that the loss to GC was as painful as the loss to Stfd was the other day. . Both were losses on the final shot of the game with seconds left to go in the game. But there were differences in the 2 games and those differences are what made the Stfd game a freak and the other one a good chance for GC to win. In the Stfd game , Schertz was following "the book" which states that when you have a 3 pt lead with less than 5 sec to play ...you foul the other team. As I pointed out in the post game wrap up in this thread....if you played that same game 24 times...starting from 4.3 sec left...we win 23 times out of 24....a freak occurrence...everything had to be perfect for Stfd to win. In the GC game a year ago things were different. We were winning the game with 46 sec left to go. With 3 sec left and the Bills winning 72-71, we fouled the GC player setting up a 1 & 1. We didn't have to foul him but we did..... . unlike the Stfd game which was a planned foul. So now, if we play this game from the 3 sec mark and their player at the foul line...the probability is 55% that GC wins by making 2 FTs. If we play 9 games , in that scenario, GC wins 5 games on FTs...of the remaining 4 games GC would win 1 of 4....6 of 9 or every 3 games GC wins 2 starting at the 3 sec mark. So their win last year was not a freak. It doesn't change the fact that both games were painful. The difference is this years Bills team is much better than last year's team. Last years loss was one of a number of losses in the OOC. This year's team has 1 loss and that was a freak. The outlook for this year is much better than after last year's painful loss.

My secret identity is Not WUH.

A freak loss tonight. But you don't have to take my word for it. Let's ask the computer... The computer says ...if we played 23 more games against Stfd and the situation was exactly the same as tonight and we started each game at the 4.3 sec mark... we win the next 23 games. That is the definition of a freak occurrence. But as you realize, we should have probably won the game long before those final seconds. The non shooting stats were all pretty good...good enough to give us a chance to win...We won the Rebs by 5 and TOs and PF were all within 1 of Stfd. We even kept their star player to 17 pts (the target was 19) But this game was a lot like the SC game... non shooting stats were good enough to keep us close and even though our shooting was poor we pulled it out in the final seconds...except this time we didn't because of a freak occurrence. Again, we shot a dismal 25% from the arc and an F- from 2 range. What does this mean. It means we fell short of the target slash which is adjusted downward and is less than our actual average. Even with these lower targets we still fell three 3s and five 2s short of our target...3(3s) +5(2s}=19pts...ie had we played a more normal game we win by 18pts. Yet we lose on a freak play. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. If we shoot normal for the rest of the season we will win most of the rest of our games and this will just be a freak blip on an otherwise good season.

A great win against SC not because we beat them at the buzzer but because we shot poorly and still won the game. It is what good teams do...find a way to win even on an off day. As I mentioned in the post game post in the SC spread thread this will be a shortened analysis because I am on the move. The reports will return to normal once the Bills get back home. As far as the computer is concerned, its view is that we did what we were supposed to do. ...win a close game. Are overall numbers remain about the same. We continue at A-. As expected our offensive numbers have slipped a bit but still look pretty good...the defense held steady. One area that impressed the computer was our improvement in some problem stats....TOs and PF. We beat them by one in each category Better yet our numbers are good on their own. Even with some careless TOs 11 is still a good number (B). More importantly, it shows we can get through am entire game protecting the ball against a good team. That lower TO total allowed us to stay close against a good team till we could muster just enough offense to win. As for Stfd, they come into this game as a B . A very good team but a slight step down from SC. They played a game against Minn that was similar to ours. Minn led most of the way but they couldn't shake Sfd. And Sfd pulled away in the closing minute to win. In order to win our game we will need to shoot better. Stfd is also very good at protecting the ball so we will have to keep mistakes down too. Bottomline....If we can shoot better and match out TO total from SC we should win by 4. If we shoot closer to our average /normal, we could win by double figures.

I am on the move this week. I couldn't bring the HAL 9000 with me because it is too big... The HAL 900 and 90 couldn't get a wifi signal so I report to you on the HAL 9. The reports in the coming days will be abbreviated but I will have spreads. I will be back at full strength at the end of the Bills current road trip. While the computer had an uneasy feel about this game it picked us to win in a close game because in the end it thought we were the better team. Here is what the stats look like The rebs and steals were even... The problem areas... TOs & PF... We had 11 & 17 both good numbers and 1 better than SC in both cases. We had a bad slash line... They beat us by 6 FTMs... This could have been a game killer EXCEPT... we made 3 more FGM on 3 less shots. Those 3 shots made were two 2s and one 3...one more pt than the extra 6 FTM that SC sunk. This was an important win and a great win. A great win not because we pulled it out at the buzzer but because we shot poorly AND still won the game... It is what good teams do....Win games when they have an off night. It is a good omen. Even HAL Jr liked it.

I wasn't sure what you meant here (bolded phrase). At first, I thought you were talking about Taylor Swift. I think what you meant was an unstoppable force vs an immovable object...a mutually exclusive concept in physics. In any case, the idea of scoring margin that you refer to is one I have been harping on all season because of its importance in the NET. I have talked about it this season because we have an extremely weak schedule. When you are faced with an F rated SOS then you have to win big to hold your own in the NET. When playing a weak team, it is assumed you will win the game ...the only question is by how much. But things change when you play good teams. Winning is not a forgone conclusion. The first emphasis when playing highly rated teams is to win the game. Win a close game against Miss Valley St Delta Devils and you won't move up and might even move down. Win a game against Duke by 1 point and you move up a lot. Yes, scoring margin would move you up more but the idea is to win first and let the margin take care of itself. At least for the next 3 games , I am shifting to a ...just win philosophy.

They have a couple of guards that can shoot FTs (A+) including their top scorer Hammond....The forwards and centers like to watch them shoot FTs.

Of course our grade and rank depends not only on what we do but what every one else does too. But let's give it a shot... A dominant win over SC by 20 pts might be enough to get us to a grade of A. If we win out the remaining games in the OOC, I would say it would be a pretty sure thing we make the top 25. You might also want to check out tix at the Enterprise Center if that happens. We could be the next hometown heroes.

I think a good place to begin is an answer to a question from @Lord Elrond I wrote on a post game PFW spread thread. He asked ...was the computer impressed with the PFW win? I answered as follows... The answer is yes, the computer was impressed. Not that this was a great win.... great in this case meaning a big win over an important opponent. But this was an an important win. It was the win that has propelled us to A- for the first time this season. It was the previous win over GC that moved the needle and put us close to A- that allowed this step forward. This win over PFW by 31 was just enough to push us over the finish line. Again the significance of A- means we are worthy...Worthy of 1st place in the A10...worthy of winning the A10 tourney....worthy of getting a bid to the Dance. But it is only the first step. Step two is can we stay at A-. That question will be answered in the next game with Santa Clara. If we beat them then the answer is yes we belong. The goal for the season is to reach the end with at least an A-. The computer thinks we can do it but it wants the team to "show me". So now it was my turn to ask the computer a question. If we are an A- team and SC is a B+ and we have the better offense and at least as good a defense why is this game a tossup. The computer responded by saying it loved our team and that it thought we were a potential A10 champ and a likely Big Dance team BUT there were 2 things it didn't like ...both which will be resolved in the next 10 days. First was our SOS ...our grade on this category is an F. Our next 3 games will all be against high ranking teams (B to B+) on neutral or away courts. So no matter what... our SOS is headed up. We can win all 3 games. If we take 2 of 3 we are still ok. One of three means still have work to do. The second issue the computer is struggling with is TOs. We come in with an F- on TOs. (8th Worst ITN). So far it hasn't mattered because we have played weak teams. What concerns me is these bad TO numbers have come against bad teams. What happens against good teams? Some will argue that when you have a big lead you may not play as careful. On a positive note during the first 5 games we have had some 15-20 min stretches with no TOs ...so it shows we can play mistake free for long stretches of time. Playing at a high level mistake free will show that we can compete at an A level. Also playing together as a team against other good teams will show that we are ready for prime time. Game preview... WE are a much better on offense than they are. And they are about even with us on D. They have a 7 ft 1 guy who plants himself under the basket and makes bunnies but only grabs 2 rebs /gm. Their leading rebounder is a 6' 9 guard (8 reb/gm). SC can make 3s but only if no one is guarding them...bother them...They are F+ at the charity stripe. This game should be a close back and forth game EXCEPT... if we make shots (see target slash below) and we beat them on the boards ( we should) and keep the TOs down (hopefully) we can win this game by double digits. The best team we have played so far is GC. When we played them they were a B+ team. SC is a B+ team. We whupped GC...No reason we can't do the same against SC. We just need to keep doing what we have been doing. As Elvis use to say ...Taking Care of Business. Now let's look at the Card and see what's up.... Report Card.... Straight A's on offense and the Def is looking good too. Up ....Off....3P%...FT%...Rebs.........Def.....PPG...FG%...2P%...3P% Down....Off & Def...none ................SLU..................SC...................SLU......................SC ...........................OFF...................................................DEF.......... PPG...........A+..12th ITN....C+.....................B..........................A+..17th ITN FG%..........A+..18th ITN....C+.....................A+........................A 2P%..........A+..9th ITN.....B.......................A-.........................A 3P%..........A.....................D......................A-..........................B+ FT%.........A+..3rd ITN.....F+....................................................... Reb............A...................A-.....................B+...........................B+ OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Here is an interesting quirk... SC is 4th ITN in OFF Rebs and SLU is 4th ITN in DEF Rebs...should be a good battle on the boards Nice looking report card...Dean's list on Off and Honor Roll on Def Top 100 In The Nation SLU... FG%...Brown...25th...Thames ...59th 2P%........Brown 31st...McCottry...72nd 3P%....Avila....89th Stls...Thames...59th FT%...Jones...1st (100%)...tied with many SC... Off reb....Esminger...56th... Graves...77th FG%...Oboye...62nd Injuries... None reported for either team at this time...This is good news as McCottry had a leg injury in the PFW game and had to sit out the final minutes Keys to the game....Beat them on the boards...Make the slash...keep TOs down... WWN2D2W.....Target slash...53/65/ 40/ 80....Hold their top 3 players to 32 pts...Win the Reb battle...Keep TOs to 12..play at a fast pace but not at an out of control pace. Bottom line....We need to show the Broncos there is a whole new rodeo in town. "We win because we play together as a team"....John Havlicek...Boston Celtics

A very nice win... Let's see what happened...bolded statements are from the original post... Target slash...53/65/ 38 / 80... actual...51/ 60/ 42/ 94...this is a nice line...excellent Keep their top 3 players to under 40 pts combined...actual 35pts... again excellent Keep PF to 17...actual 11...exceeded...finally and we still played great defense Score 100 pts...don't take out the regulars till we get to Shake Shack...This is a pass...we didn't get the 100 but we delivered the burgers...that's always a win. A key factor in this game was our defense...especially from the arc...they shot a dismal 20.6% (7-34) . The computer had projected they would make an extra five 3s...That 15pts was the overage on the spread. Also the shutdown of their leading scorer Hadnot who averages over 17 ppg ...he had 3pts...he Hadnot pts against the Bills. Rebs...we out rebounded them 50-24...impressive...again a reason why we beat them And finally....keep TOs to 12 ...actual 16...this was a fail....this stat doesn't matter when you are playing cupcakes but will come back to haunt us when we play good teams. Bottom line..If we play our game, we can pound the Mastodons back to the stone age.....we did and we did

The answer is yes the computer was impressed. Not that this was a great win.... great in this case meaning a big win over an important opponent. But this was an an important win. . It was the win that has propelled us to A- for the first time this season. It was the previous win over GC that moved the needle and put us close to A- that allowed this step forward. This win over PFW by 31 was just enough to push us over the finish line. Again the significance of A- means we are worthy...Worthy of 1st place in the A10...worthy of winning the A10 tourney....worthy of getting a bid to the Dance. But it is only the first step. Step two is can we stay at A-. That question will be answered in the next game with Santa Clara. If we beat them then the answer is yes we belong. The goal for the season is to reach the end with an A-. The computer thinks we can do it but it wants the team to "show me".

I guess this is welcome to The Wiz Sports Book. Sports books and betting sites are always trying to even up the odds...so when you are looking at a spread theoretically you are looking at an even game when the spread is factored in. What is actually going on is the Book is trying to even up the bets....i.e. if everyone is still betting on SLU to win when the spread is 20.5pts then the Book will move it to 21.5 . If that is too much then more will start to bet on PFW and the spread will come down. The point is that betting spreads doesn't always reflect true scoring margins. On the other hand, my system is not dependent on bettors and tries to reflect the true margin of the game. It is similar to the stock market. The price of the stock is supposed to represent the value of the company but in real life the price can go up and down based on fear or greed. When that happens the price or spread moves up or down just like a sports bet. So where does that leave you on who to bet on? I usually tell people that when my numbers differ by more than 3 pts from the line there maybe an opportunity. The spread is 4.5 pts now. Is there an opportunity? Not in this case....because there is not enough data. As I have said in the past, I need 8 games to have a more accurate forecast. In this case, with the teams having only half the data the spread could have a variance of 7pts....i.e. the spread could be anywhere from ...Bills by 9 to Bills by 23. It doesn't look like an opportunity to me...kind of like betting on maiden races at the horse track...lots of excitement but not much data. But if you decide to bet be prepared to change your name to Crewscanlose. Good luck And as always ...Go Bills

They could both be practicing and still be questionable for Fri...He might consider saving them for the SC game.

Hmm...that might work in a basketball season where we only play GC and Pur FW. But in my system, all the games are connected. Since our last game our previous opponents have played a number of games and all their opponents have played a number of games. So there are hundreds of games that factor into the equation just since we played GC. It is kind of like 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon...everything is connected. That is why the computer likes to see 8 games. After 8 games everything is connected enough i.e. there is enough data to make more accurate spreads. Shoot well...score big...win by a lot

We enter this game still at the B+ level. But the underlying numbers have improved. The GC game was a booster. We are within striking distance of A-. Unfortunately, this game will not give us much of a jump. Possibly if we win by 26 and some other teams ahead of us lose ...it is possible to move to A- but not probable. PFW comes in as a D+ team. Not a full cupcake but a cupcake lite. The trouble is that if we take them lightly (or litely) we could wind up in a close game which is not a good thing if you want to keep moving toward A-. The A- level is key to the season. If we make the A- level we should win the conference. win the A-10 tourney and get a Dance bid. Game preview... The Mastodons can shoot. Their 3s look weak but that is deceiving. Their leading 3PA guy is their worst 3P% shooter. Meanwhile, their defense is missing in action. We need to not help them find it. This could be another triple digit game for the Bills. If we make our shots ...we win the game. If we shoot well, we win by a lot. Now let's look at the Card and see what's up.... Report Card.... Straight A's on offense and the Def is looking good too. ................SLU..................PFW...................SLU......................PFW ...........................OFF...................................................DEF.......... PPG...........A+..16th ITN....B+.....................C+............................D FG%..........A+..15th ITN....B+.....................A...............................F 2P%..........A+..7th ITN.....A-......................A..............................F 3P%..........A-...................C-......................A-..............................D- FT%.........A+..14th ITN....B....................................................... Reb............A-...................D-.....................B+...............................C OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... FG%...Thames ...62nd...McCottry...76th 2P%....McCottry...30th....Brown 86th Stls...Thames...33rd FT%...Jones...1st (100%)...tied with many PFW FG%...Duffy...81st 2P%...Duffy...31st PPG....Hadnot...73rd Injuries... Paul Otieno F Ankle Sun 16 Nov Ques Fri Otieno is dealing with an ankle injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against the Purdue FW on Friday. Kellen Thames G Undisclosed Sun 16 Nov Ques Fri Thames exited the game with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Purdue FW on Friday. Keys to the game....We need to make shots against a weak defense. If we slack on our defense it will be a close game. WWN2D2W.....Target slash...53/65/ 38 / 80....Keep their top 3 players to under 40 pts combined...keep TOs to 12 (we are currently 10th WITN)...Keep PF to 17(we are currently an F team in PF)...Score 100 pts...don't take out the regulars till we get to Shake Shack. Bottom line..If we play our game, we can pound the Mastodons back to the stone age.