The Wiz

Today's spread....VCU over The Bills by 0.255...so still even...not much happening in basketball to move the needle. There might be a little movement today with some key games being played.

Point of information to those who are uninformed or not paying attention... Here are some rankings from the only ranking system that matters or counts...The NET...the system that is used by the NCAA Selection Committee to determine who gets bids. While this isn't the only criteria that is used ...if you are above 50 and you don't have an auto bid...you ain't going nowhere. a/o 1/4/26 SLU...# 29 VCU...# 52 MO....#84 If there are any Michigan fans on board, I would be happy to discuss this further with you on private messaging. You at least have something to talk about.

Today's spread update ....VCU over the Bills by 0.251 pts....still even. Also , I have added an additional stat to the report card.....Team scoring margin....6th ITN

In a simulation of a 1000 games , about 2/3 of the games fall within a range of SLU winning by 3 to losing by 3 pts. Then another 20% show a range of 4 to 9 pts. So far it is mostly an even curve over zero. Then what usually happens is a flattening out on the outer ends of the curve. In this case though there is a strange twist at the outer end of the curve. At the 10 pts + mark there is a bump on the SLU side which shows SLU winning by 10+ pts by a margin 10% vs 2%. What this means is that it is showing as a close game BUT if it starts to open up and approach 10pts + the team most likely to do that will be the Bills.

First , a great game against...St. J ...we whupped them...probably a better phrase is...we wore them down. For a post game analysis check the St. J spread thread. And now down to new business.... Game preview... I don't know about you but I hate it when the spread comes out even. Pick a winner. So that's what I told the computer to do. The computer came up with ...VCU over The Bills by 0.209 pts and then the machine added ...I told you it was even. Computers...you can't live without them but you can turn them off....btw ...when it comes back on it says...I am still here. In any case, due to the closeness and importance of this game, I will do an updated spread every day over the next 3 days on this thread. This game will be our toughest game of the year....Both teams are grading out at A-. When you look at the report card below, you will see that VCU has good grades BUT SLU dominates in every category ...offense and defense. So how come we aren't favored . Two reasons...one it is an away game and two the computer doesn't like our SOS. Let me point out here that while our SOS is so-so D+... VCU is just a little above us at C+. So the combination of home court and SOS is just enough to wipe out our advantage. One thing the computer can't measure though is... we are playing as a team now. Starting with almost all new players this year, we have come along way since the summer . The good news is we don't need to have a great game to win...we just need to play a little above average and the game is ours. Let's see what the report card says... Report Card.... Ten A+ out of a possible 11 plus a B+....best ever Change from last card... Off...up....3P%....Dn...none Def...up..none.....Dn...PPG ................SLU..................VCU...................SLU........................VCU ...........................OFF...................................................DEF.......... PPG...........A+..4th ITN......A-.....................B+............................C FG%..........A+..9th ITN......B+....................A+..2nd ITN.............C+ 2P%..........A+..3rd ITN...B......................A+...4th ITN.............A- 3P%..........A+..20th ITN....A-....................A+...12th ITN.............D- FT%.........A+..16th ITN......B....................................................... Reb..........A+..3rd ITN.......C+....................A+..16th ITN...............C OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation ... SLU... FG%...Thames ...18th..dn....Brown..34th...up 2P%...Brown.... 15th...up...Thames...18th..up Stls/Foul...Thames...57th ...unch Stls...Thames...93rd...new True Shoot %.....Thames..10th..up.....Brown..18th..up.....Avila..82nd..up.....Green..97th..new eFG%...Thames...22nd..dn.....Brown...23rd..up.....Green...73rd..new........Avila..96th..new Team Scoring Margin....6th...up Team TS%...2nd...up Team eFG%...5th...up VCU 2P%...Hill...47th eFG%..Hill...55th TS% is a combo of 2P% , 3P% & FT%. Shows how effectively a player/team scores. Do they generate pts from all scoring opportunities......eFG%...Values 3s higher. Reflects greater scoring eff from the field. Showing smarter shot selection from the arc. I am showing these stats not only because we are doing well in them but because they are important to the Schertz system. Injuries... SLU...none VCU... Fermin ...11/22/25...out indefinitely...personal..no timetable to return. Okafor...1/3/26...undisclosed injury...questionable but will probably not play...this means even if he could play he probably won't. Keys to the game....Protect the ball, keep TOs down...make 3's- - our A+ in making 3s to their D- on defending 3s...rebound...our A+ to their C WWN2D2W.....Target slash...53/64/ 39 / 78... TOs =11... have less TOs than VCU .....Win the Reb battle by 7.. Hold their top 3 players to a combined 40 pts.... Bottom line... The Bills had a little Ram Whose fleece was white as snow And everywhere The Bills went The Ram was sure to go. Then one day, The Bills went to the arc Made some 3s and created a winning spark The Ram was down As the Bills left town VCU exclaimed We will be back ! The Bills replied See you at Shake Shack.

You play 23 more Stanford games starting the clock with 3 sec left in the game and the Bills winning by 3 and the Bills win them all. That is the reason the Bills intentionally fouled with 3 sec ...because Schertz knows that it is almost a sure win in that situation. Truly an anomaly.

2 records tonight... #1...The most 3PM in a game... #2...1st time I have ever posted on GDT during a game while at the game...to announce the 3PM record. This game showed we earned our grades on the report card. I think the 3P shooting will now come up to an A- which will leave only 1 category out of 11 below A...Opp PPG...We have a ways to go on that one...the target to get to the A- area will be 68 pts /gm for the remainder of the season. I think that is a doable goal. Let's take a look at today's game....Bolded statements from original post. The Bills over St. Joe by 21...Looks like the boys maybe checking out the spreads or it may be they are living up to their potential. I was pleased to be within 2 of the spread. When the target is wide it is tougher to hit. The good news here is that if we can get the opp PPG down i.e. defense...we have even more upside potential. Target slash...52/63/ 38 / 80...Actual slash...63/68/59/64...just 2 FTs short of making The Wiz slash...however still a successful slash...In the traditional 3 part slash ...a 180 is considered outstanding...this slash comes in at 186....A+ TOs = 10...We had 7...excellent...that little extra focus makes all the difference. Win the Reb battle by 7...We tied them...when you are making most of your shots, there just isn't as much to rebound. Hold their top 3 players to a combined 33 pts...47pts was the actual....the computer was figuring about 12 pts /player on their starting 5...4 of their 5 players scored 12...Glover scored 23...The good news for St. J is he replaced Deuce's missing points but what he couldn't replace is the missing depth. And therein lies the problem for St. J . They have 5 good starters but that's pretty much it. Did you notice how in the beginning of the game they were keeping up with us...people around me were going..."this ain't gonna be no 21 pt victory" . But as we got near the end of the 1st half the lead gradually increased...as they started to fade. The 2nd half was all Billikens...St. J was gassed. And here is the key stat...Bench pts.. Bills 44.. SJ 16..almost the same spread as the game. We have the right players, the right coach, the talent , the energy and the depth . Now all we have to do is execute...We do and we did. Bottom line...If the Bills can get to #80 Shake Shack Lane...then it will be a victory for the Bills to gain...We did and it was. I don't think we will get up to A for our overall game grade (we are close ) with this win but if we win our next game (@VCU) our toughest game of the year, we will be flying high. I am ready to write that VCU game right now BUT unfortunately I have to wait till next year (Jan 4) before I can run the numbers because VCU has a game with Duq on Jan 3. Until then think good thoughts. Go Bills

New 3PM record for the Bills

We are holding steady at A- and not too far from A. A win over SJ might be enough to get us to A. A- means we are in the running for a Dance bid and a grade of A will give us a lock. In any case, we start conference play in good shape. Our overall numbers are staggering (see report card below). In 9 of 11 key areas , we are 18th ITN or better. We are not only one of the top offensive teams ITN but also one of the tops on defense. While the schedule has been weak (D+ ), the computer has seen enough to know that we can play at a high/winning level in the A10. The following teams S Clara, Stfd, SF and GCany would all be top tier teams in the A10 (3-6th place). We have the right players, the right coach, the talent , the energy and the depth . Now all we have to do is execute. Or as Nike would say ...Just Do It. Game preview...The elephant in the room is the disappearance of star player Deuce Jones...SJ leading scorer. He was recently dropped from the team. This is not the place to go into details but if you are interested in the future of college basketball , then this article in the link following is a must read. In addition to understanding how the new world of CBB is colliding with the old...it will give you a better appreciation for Schertz and what he does. https://delgrecowilson.com/2025/12/24/the-deuce-jones-effect-a-cautionary-tale-for-the-transfer-portal-era/ Back to this game...Jones is gone and it will not be an easy hole to plug. What does the computer think? If you check out the spread that will tell all you need to know. So do we got this one?? We should ...but even without Jones this is not a cupcake team...currently C-. They have a weak offense ...they can't shoot 3s (4th WITN) and the only good thing on offense is FT shooting and some rebounding ... So do we got this?? Well they have a plan...they have a fairly good defense and the plan is to slow things down...the slower the game goes ...the less we score and if the game is closer.................. Let's see what the report card says... Report Card.... Change from last card... 9 A+ out of a possible 11 plus an A and B+....best ever Off...up....none....Dn...none Def...up...PPG...Reb....Dn...none ................SLU..................SJ...................SLU........................SJ ...........................OFF...................................................DEF.......... PPG...........A+..7th ITN.....D+.....................A-............................B- FG%..........A+..17th ITN...F+......................A+....3rd ITN.............B+ 2P%..........A+..5th ITN....C.......................A+...5th ITN.............B+ 3P%..........B+...................F-..4th WITN...A+...9th ITN.............B FT%.........A+..14th ITN....A....................................................... Reb..........A+..3rd ITN.....A.....................A+..18th ITN................D OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation ...or the Thames and Brown show SLU... FG%...Thames ...13th..up....Brown..37th...up 2P%....Thames... 19th...up...Brown...24th..up Stls/Foul...Thames...57th ...dn True Shoot %.....Thames...13..up....Brown.. 27th..up...Avila...89th...new eFG%...Thames...18th...up...Brown...36th..up Team TS%...7th...dn Team eFG%...11th...dn St. J FT%...Simpson... 64th TS% is a combo of 2P% , 3P% & FT%. Shows how effectively a player scores. Do they generate pts from all scoring opportunities......eFG%...Values 3s higher. Reflects greater scoring eff from the field. Showing smarter shot selection from the arc. I am showing these stats not only because we are doing well in them but because they are important in the Schertz system. Injuries... SLU...McCottry...Illness ...Questionable for Wed game Keys to the game....Can the Slow Mo of St. Joe catch the lightning fast Bills on the flow?...The computer says NO GO. WWN2D2W.....Target slash...52/63/ 38 / 80... TOs = 10.....Win the Reb battle by 7.. Hold their top 3 players to a combined 33 pts.... Bottom line...If the Bills can get to #80 Shake Shack Lane...then it will be a victory for the Bills to gain.

This is how the A10 looks as we get ready to start conference play. The numbers after the preconference grades are the change in grades ...e.g. The Bills have an A- so they have improved +1 from their preseason B+. The forecast falls into line with what I expected....about 80% (11 out of 14 ) within 1 notch of their original forecast. Looking at the 1 notch rule, we need to stay at A- to get a Dance bid. If we move up to an A ....we can lock down a bid. If we drop down to B+ we will be looking at NIT. We just need to keep doing what we have been doing...stay present and in the moment and we can win. Preseason........................Preconference 1. Bills....B+......................Bills...A-...+1 2. Day....B+.......................VCU..A-...+1 3. VCU...B+........................Day...B+...unch 4. GM....B...........................GM....B+...+1 5. GW....B..........................GW....B+....+1 6....Loy...B...........................RI....B.......+1 7...Duq....B-.........................Dav..B-...+1 8..RI.......B-..........................Duq...B-...unch 9..Rich...B-.........................Rich...B-...unch 10..St. B...B-........................St. B...B-..unch 11...St. J...B-........................Ford....C...unch 12...Dav...C+........................St. J...C-...-3 13...For...C............................LaS...D......-2 14...LaS...C-.........................Loy....D-...-7 Now let's look at some other preseason forecast I made.... Scenarios...preseason...yearly forecast..............Preconference forecast Best case.....29-2...............................................................29-2...unch Most probable ...25-6.........................................................28-3....+3 Worst case...21-10...............................................................26-5....+5 Scenarios....OOC preseason Best case....13-0 Most probable....12-1...............Actual 12-1 Scenarios...A10 forecast.................... Best case 16-2...1st pl............................................................17-1......+1....1st pl Most probable 13-5...1st pl.....................................................16-2....+3....1st pl Worst case...10-8...5th pl........................................................14-4...+4.....1st pl So what does all this mean? It means we have a great chance to win the conference and a good chance to win the A10 tourney. There are 6 teams battling for the top 4 spots. Teams generally only will move up or down 1 notch on their grades...so most likely the bottom 8 won't be in the running for any Dance Bids. The PIGs are also locked in ...the bottom 4 teams. One last stat.... Preseason ............................................Preconference Chance to Dance... 31%...................................55%....up 24% NIT Chance ...73%...........................................77%.....up 4% Bottom line... So far we are looking good...we have to stay healthy and continue to make 3s (38%)....in the end...I would rather be us then them.

We now have an answer to the question of what is "a lot"....81pts. Turns out that is a new Bills record...The old one was against Roosevelt in 1978-79 which was 69 pts. History made. Another record set today was most FGM in a half...old record was 26 against Tex St in 74-75.,,,Today 27 And finally the record for the most 3PA in a gm was tied ...39 vs Wake For in 94-95. In other happenings ...a shoutout to @Wendelprof who was visiting from LA and sitting behind me at the game. In the opening min of the game he asked ...what minute do you think the Bills will lock this game down...With the score 4-0...I answered ...right now. Glad to see you W prof. As expected, this game was a rout. And this game will not count in the NET. But it was a good warm up/ practice for conference play. Here are what some of the stats looked like... Slash....58/ 86 / 31 / 75....here is what it looks like in grade form....A+ / A++ / F+ / B+...Over all very nice ...An amazing day from 2P land ...33-38. 3P could have been better but when you are winning by 80+ pts you aren't always taking your best shot with your best people. On FTs we needed 1 more FTM to get an A+...close enough. Rebs ...64-21...another amazing stat. All in all, a nice finish to the OOC. Now bring on the real season.

'Twas the night before Christmas when all through the Fetz Nothing was stirring, not even the nets; The banners were hung from the rafters with care, In hopes that The Wiz would soon be there; The fans were nestled all snug in their seats; With visions of Bills wins, while they munched on their treats. And Mama in her sweatshirt, and I in Bills blue Had just settled in to watch a basket or two. When on Compton and 40 there arose such a clatter, I sprang from my seat to see what was the matter. Away to the window I flew like a flash And then flung open the door, in a very mad dash The moon on the breast of the new fallen snow, Gave the luster of mid-day to objects below; When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,, But a basketball team as quick as reindeer, With a little old driver, so lively and all biz, I knew in a moment it must be The Wiz. More rapid than eagles his coursers they came, And he whistled and shouted and called them by name: Now! Jones, now! Avila, now! Green, oh my gosh, On! Brown, on! McCottry, on! Sharma, and Coach Josh; To the top of Gate A ! To the top of the wall ! " Now dash away ! Dash away ! Dash away all !" As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly, When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky; So up to the arena top the coursers they flew, With a sleigh load of stats and The Wiz too: And then in a twinkling I heard on the floor The bouncing of b-balls making baskets galore. As I drew in my head, and was turning around, Down Section 104 The Wiz came with a bound: He was dressed all in Bills gear, from his head to his toe, And his clothes were all blue, he was ready to go; A bundle of spreads was flung on his back, And he looked like a peddler just opening his pack: His eyes- how they twinkled ! His dimples: how merry, His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry; His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow, And the beard on his chin was as white as the snow; The stump of a pipe he held tight in his teeth, And the smoke it encircled his head like a wreath. He had a broad face, and a little round belly That shook when he laughed, like a bowl full of jelly: He was chubby and plump, just like a Billiken, And I laughed when I saw him and thought Gee Williken; A wink of his eye and a twist of his head Soon gave me to know that The Wiz had a spread. He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work, And calculated point spreads, ; then turned with a jerk, And laying his finger aside of his nose And giving a nod,… BANG …up the concourse he rose. He sprang in the Chaifetz , to his team gave a whistle, And away they all flew like the down of a thistle: But I heard him exclaim, as he shouted out clear-- BILLIKENS WILL WIN, IT IS BETTER THIS YEAR To all that follow the Billiken Biz Merry Christmas to all , best wishes from The Wiz

Worst beat down in D1 history ...Utah over the Ms Valley St Delta Devils ...143-49...94 pts...2019 Biggest spread win in SLU history was over Roosevelt....130-61...69 pts...1978-79.

No spread for this one as D3 data does not compute. Here is the latest report card ...Bills only Report Card 1 up - 4 dn = -3 Off...up...3P%..Dn...FG%...2P% Def...up...none....Dn...PPG...3P%. ................SLU..........................................SLU........................ .....................OFF.......................................DEF.......... PPG...........A+..12th ITN........................B........................... FG%..........A.........................................A+....10TH ITN............. 2P%..........A.........................................A+...17th ITN............. 3P%..........A-........................................A................ FT%.........A+..11th ITN.............................................................. Reb..........A+..6TH ITN..........................A...............................F+ OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... FG%.......Brown..53rd...dn 2P%....Brown 35th..dn... Stls/Foul...Thames...55th ...dn True Shoot %......Brown.. 45th..dn...Green...86th...dn eFG%...Brown...60th..dn...Green...76th..dn Team TS%...7th...dn Team eFG team ranking...11th..dn Overall the report card is still good. The good news is we have the most A's of the season (11 of 12)....The bad news is we were down a net of 3 categories...Anytime your report card is down a net of 3 it wasn't a good game. The 2 main things that went wrong were 2P% Offense which also dragged down FG% and 3P% defense which also dragged down the opp PPG grade on defense. Also, Thames is missing from a number of the leader categories because he no longer has enough stats to qualify. Keys to the Game.... Win big WWN2D2W...Show up Bottom line...Do you want your burgers with or with out sauce.

Painful game as we struggled against a weak team. The underlying cause is we seemed to be out of sync...no rhythm...no tempo. Some of it was purposeful by NH...slow play, challenges, technical fouls, timeouts, fouls by NH on sure shots that the Bills had. Basically ...slow the overall game down. This is what the A10 will do to us....So a good learning experience. Let's look at the numbers to see what happened...Bolded phrases from the original post. The cautionary tale is if we don't play a good game this game could be much closer than the spread.... We didn't play a good game and it was much closer. New Ham is not the easiest team we have played. That team was Chi St with an F- and we beat them by 22....If the Chi St was a true measure and NH is a better team than C St, then theoretically this win should be by a smaller spread. BUT that doesn't make up for the fact we played a poor game. Target slash...52/63/ 38 / 81...Actual slash..45/50/39/74...And this is where the people who read the board have an extra advantage...The 2P% doesn't show up on a regular box score. I include the 2P% because it is important in Schertz's scheme. Looking at the 2 slashes you can easily see the problem...We missed five 2's we normally would make....add a couple of more FTs we missed that we don't normally do and you have an extra 2pts for a total of 12 more pts....adding 5 more 2s and 2 more FTs makes the normal slash....52/65/39/81... Poor shooting NH managed to shoot an A+ 40%from the arc...3 extra 3s above their normal game. We were 12 short ...they had an extra 9 ...adding those to the winning margin shows a spread of 26-35 pts in favor of the Bills. Bottom line...we had an off game ...they had a good game. TOs = 10...We had 8...This is one of things that kept us in the game. This is what winning teams do Win the Reb battle by 10...We won by 15 ...another excellent number that was important in the win. A lot of things went right in this game except for the 2s. I will consider this an anomaly that will correct itself and we can move on. As for the effect this has on the computer numbers and grades, it looks like we have slipped back a little to A-. It is not like this game had a big impact on our overall stats. We were a borderline A. I consider this a short term effect...Win the next 2 games (Principia doesn't count) and we will be back at A and an even stronger position. get some Shake Shack burgers for the fans...Not saying this was a vital component of the game BUT as the game was in the closing minutes, we seemed to stall out in the low 70s. As we approached the 80 mark we seemed to explode and leave them in the dust. A coincidence?? Players know that fans gotta eat. Bottom line...We are done with the Ham and ready for some prime cuts.