The Wiz

Stanfd win over Colo cancels out the San Cl loss to Loy-C. A fantasy game between SC and Stnfd shows even.

Actually, we continue to hang onto A by a thread. While the Santa Clara loss to Loy was a costly one , it was pretty much canceled out by a decisive Stanford win over Colo.

First, let me say that with a 30 pt spread (Bills over NH by 30) I am confident we will win the game easily. With that said I decided to have the computer play a fantasy game.....Loy-Chi(F+) vs New Ham (F). Loy wins by 1. Further, Santa Clara came into the Loy game as a B+....So F+ beats B+. Tomorrow's game is A vs F so a little more leeway BUT a reminder that you can't mail the results in. You have to show up and play the game. The only surprise I want to see tomorrow is that we beat NH by more than 30.

As I look over the only rating/ poll that matters/counts, the NET shows us at 21. We are now ahead of Fla, Ky, Tenn and St. John's. The only Big East team ahead of us is UConn. Hey, if UConn leaves the BE, we could slide into that #1 spot in the BE and make a nice replacement. The world is a changing fast.

The key to that Hydro Bot post was the advice that...."you need to be real with yourself" My computer said it didn't understand what that meant.

The attendance at Principia in your example was equal to 1/3 of the student body...but they weren't necessarily students. So using your same scenario... SLU has 13307 students .....SLU vs SF at Chaifetz... 1 week ago....attendance 5814....5814/13307= 44% 44% > 33%....SLU >Principia

You did it...With the Loy Mar big win ....it pushed The Bills up just enough to go from A- to A and you did it with minutes to spare. But beware...the Bills are right on the cusp...a loss by a past Bills opponent could push us back down. We will just need to win big on Sunday against New Ham to lock down that A.

Nice win over Be Cook. For a post game analysis check out the BC spread thread. The Bills remain at A- because we did what we were supposed to do ...beat BC by a lot. Even though we remain at A- the underlying numbers continue to strengthen and we are now close enough to A where we might make it to that level before we play NH ...either because our past opponents continue to win or teams ahead of us slip down. Game preview...We move from the D+ of Be Cook to the grade F of New Ham. AND New H is not the easiest team we have played. That team was Chi St with an F- and we beat them by 22. So NH is better than Chi St yet the spread for this game is more? How does that work? It could be 2 things...we didn't have our best game or we have gotten better. It is probably a little of both. We had an average game on offense against Chi St and played a poor game on defense (86pts). On the other side of the coin , we have become a much better team especially on defense. The cautionary tale is if we don't play a good game this game could be much closer than the spread. Play Bills ball and we win. Report Card.... Change from last card... some nice improvements on an already high report card. Eight A+ out of a possible 11 plus an A and 2 B+....best ever Off...up....FG%...3P%..Dn...none Def...up...PPG...2P%...3P%...Reb....Dn...2P% ................SLU..................NH...................SLU........................NH ...........................OFF...................................................DEF.......... PPG...........A+..10th ITN.....F+..................B+............................B- FG%..........A+..16TH ITN...F....................A+....7TH ITN.............C 2P%..........A+..12th ITN....F.....................A+...11th ITN.............C+ 3P%..........B+...................F+..................A+...16th ITN.............C FT%.........A+..7TH ITN.....D+....................................................... Reb..........A+..7TH ITN.....C+.....................A...............................F+ OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... FG%...Thames ...23rd..up....Brown..39th...up 2P%....Brown 21st...up...Thames...43rd..up Stls/Foul...Thames...53rd ...up True Shoot %.....Thames...31st ..dn....Brown.. 35th..up...Green...40th...up eFG%...Thames...44th...up...Brown...48th..up...Green...52nd..up Team TS%...4th...up Team eFG%...9th...up Since we have 3 players in both TS% & eFG%...TS% is a combo of 2P% , 3P% & FT%. Shows how effectively a player scores. Do they generate pts from all scoring opportunities......eFG%...Values 3s higher. Reflects greater scoring eff from the field. Showing smarter shot selection from the arc. I am showing these stats not only because we are doing well in them but because they are important in the Schertz system. Injuries... No injuries reported for either team Keys to the game....Play Bills ball and we win big WWN2D2W.....Target slash...52/63/ 38 / 81... TOs = 10.....Win the Reb battle by 10.. hold them to 60 pts...get some Shake Shack burgers for the fans Bottom line...The Shack called and said they are running out of burgers. Let's trade in the New Ham for some New Burgers.

Winning is the only answer....assuming we finish out the schedule strong this year...next year's schedule will be better.... Gonz doesn't seem to have a problem scheduling ...nether does Dayton. Everything is in place to have a successful program....Facilities, Coach , the players, a good game strategy , multi -dimensional team --playing good offense & defense and finally winning. We just need to keep doing what we have been doing and the SOS will start to climb too. We could have success as soon as this year. If we build on that (Schertz has a long term contract), we then can have long term success. Back in Oct when I made my preseason forecast . I stated that the best case scenario for this year was 29-2....The computer figured 13-0 OOC and 16-2 in conference. That was the best case...however as of today we are on pace for that 29-2 season. Yes , it is far from a done deal but the point is that it is also not just a pipe dream. Most probable is up to 27 or 28 wins. I think most fans last year looking forward would have been excited for 27 or 28 wins. Bottom line...After a decade of limited success, the ship has started to turn around ...and it is turning around fast. Patience will now be measured in months not years.

I agree with you ...instead of complaining we need ideas ...which is why I listed a few in the 3rd post of this thread. 1...Weighting the non conference schedules differently...Q2 and Q3 carry more weight especially when you play at their arenas. 2....Financial incentives for P4 schools to play Q2 and Q3 at a mid major arena. Have the NCAA kick in money when a P4 school plays away. 3...And the obvious one...create more bids...96...128 etc. This would generate more interest and money throughout the season as well as post season....some of that money could pay for the financial incentives in #2 above.

Maybe ...maybe not...We have not won all of our games to this point and and not all of the P4 teams have passed us. In the opening post of this thread , I said we are in a good place now AND if we stay where we are ( #22) we will get a Dance bid. Does that mean we need to win all our conference games ....maybe ...maybe not. How do we get the bid?...By winning 1 game at a time. Want that bid ...beat NH and then go from there.

The simple answer is yes. 1...More quality win opportunities...If your conference has lots of Q1 teams then you will have more chances for Q1 wins. 2...Losses count for less...Building on the above statement...If you have quality losses they hurt you less. 3...SOS is better...If your conference is mainly Q1 then you will have a better SOS....again 1 & 2...Wins help your SOS more and losses hurt you less. 4...Bubble advantage...If you are a mid major with a better record than a mid level P4, you could be beat out by the mid level P4 that has just a few Q1 wins. Some ideas to equalize things a bit. 1...More emphasis on non conference schedules. Playing schools that were strong ....want to strengthen those ratings ...play them at a mid major arena. Give little weight to Q4 wins and more to Q2 and 3. 2 Financial incentives provided by the NCAA to play at mid major arenas...P4 schools claim they lose money when they play mid majors. 3...More NCAA bids to Dance...would create more opportunities outside of P4. Also expand play-in format...take 14-16 seeds and have them do a play in with teams on the bubble....24 teams total....again more opportunity. If they don't make changes ...they will kill the golden goose. If they make changes they can make the goose more golden.

The computer thinks that a team with a NET rating of 25 or better will receive a Dance bid even after the Committee review. Currently, the Bills are ranked 22 on the NET. Of course this means nothing in Dec EXCEPT if the Bills can stay the course i.e. stay at 22 they should get a bid. Further , even though the Bills have more upside potential , the current NET shows at this point in time they are good enough to be Dancing. BC coach said after the game we are the best team they have played....and they have played Auburn, Dayton, Miami, Indiana and Mizzou. If we play like we did against BC we can beat anybody on the NET. As for my computer, the numbers continue to improve. But the grade remains at A- . While this is not good enough on my system to get an at large bid (we need an A) it is good enough to win the A10 conference as well as the auto bid for winning the tourney. I have noticed the data has been bouncing around a lot recently but in a general up pattern. On the Be Cook game, I actual changed the spread after I posted it, something I rarely do. The spreads are always changing but they generally stay within a point of the original post...this time it moved 4 points in a matter of days. I thought at first the spread had widened because BC lost to Mizzou by a wide margin. But upon closer examination BC's numbers dropped only slightly and not enough to push our spread a lot in a short time. We have been moving up not only because we are winning ...and winning by big margins...but for the most part our past opponents have been doing well too. Their grades /rankings have generally improved since we have played them. BC may be a good example of this going forward. Even though they are only a D+ team in a weak conference, they are picked to win the SWAC which means more wins for them which in a small way will help the Bills. Added to other opponents who do well....this is how you get to a 22 rating. On my grading system, we are so close to A that it is possible we may make it before the NH game because of past opponent wins or teams ahead of us that slip back. It is time to play... name that NET... The following teams are all AP ranked teams with their rankings... Tex Tech...19 Tenn ........20 Auburn.....21 St. John's...22 Fla........... 23 What do these teams all have in common? They are all ranked below the Bills on the NET. Seems like we should be looking at 18 on that next AP poll. We win because we play together as a team....John Havlicek

A historic game...First time in Bills history that a team scored 100 pts 4 times in one season. A full out beat down. I mentioned in one post that if we could have 2 good halves in the same game we could see how good we can be. This is it. Yes, I know it was BC but BC has played a lot of good teams this year and their Coach said after the game...The Bills were the best team they have played. Let's see what happened...bolded items from the original post.... Warning...an important caveat...this was the Auburn scare...BC almost beating Aub in OT....Coach mentioned this during practice and the team took it to heart...result--40 min of well played basketball...offense and defense. Make some shots especially 3s. Good time to work on improving this stat...We did and we did....and then some. Target slash...51/62/ 38 / 81...Actual...63/ 66/ 59/ 65 ...an amazing slash except for the FT shooting. Missed 4 extra FTs tonight. Here is an odd stat. Had we made 2 more 3s...the first 3 numbers of the slash would all have been 66 and the FT mark was only 0.3 away from 66. Speaking of slashes, we need to also take a look at the BC slash. Remember, BC is a pretty good shooting 3 team.....27/32/ 17 /69....Great offense and defense by the Bills. Keep their top 4 players to 40 pts combined... We were close on this one ...44pts ...but the real significance of this stat was...the whole rest of the team scored a total of only 9 pts. Here is the way the score sheet looked at it....Bench pts...Bills 48 ...BC 16...this is impressive but I like my way better. TOs = 11... We had 2 extra TOs but it worked out because we had an 11 extra points on the TOs. Win the Reb battle by 7... We crushed them on the boards...by 19. This was a big part of a big win. The Bills over Be Cook by 21...We made an extra seven 3s plus an extra 2pt shot plus 11 pts more on TOs = 34pts over the spread. Subtract those 34pts and we are pretty close to the spread. What was the difference? An extraordinary game with focus and great shooting and rebounding. An unrelenting tempo and a punishing defense. An we didn't even have Thames. The Shack should be shaking on Wed...As well as Thurs when the fans storm it .

I ran the numbers again tonight and the computer saw something it liked in the Mizzou game and is now showing the Bills over Be Cook by 21.