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The Bills over SFA by 7


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Sorry, this will be a shortened report due to the short turn around time. .  Not enough time to do a full report on a work day.

Good game against ISU....we did pretty much what we were supposed to do...check the ISU spread thread for the game wrap.

The Bills continue to hold onto the A- grade which is a good thing....shows that we are on target for an NCAA bid. The next 3 games will complete the data set necessary to verify that bid projection....Translation.... 3 more games to find out if we are for real.

SF Austin is a B-  team with above average offense ...they have a defense but would rather focus on the offense. Another team that will try to out score us by playing only offense.

They have a more spread out offense  than our last 2 opponents ...that is their scoring is not concentrated in just 2 or 3 players. They are led by Kensmil  who is their big scorer.

WWN2D2W....Contain Kensmil...hold him to 14 pts.....no more than 2 players in double figures...TOs  will be important in this game because they are susceptible to them and we need to cut down on them.  We need to win the TO battle....have at least 2 TOs less than SFA. ...out rebound them ...Our target slash ...50/40/ 80  and last but not least they can't shoot FTs...think F-. ... FTs could be a deciding factor in this game.

Bottom line... SFA is a good team that we can and should beat....Let's cut the Lumberjacks down to size...A win would be a Super Fine Achievement.

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There is not much confidence on SLU after last night's win. Vegas line is 4 pts in favor of SLU, TRs confidence rating is only 2 stars out of 5. As I explained elsewhere, I take the TR rankings and the Vegas line as sentiment indicators. Sentiment indicators are used widely in market trading, why  not in sports betting? I fully agree with your analysis. We would have done much better last night if we had controlled TOs better. Same goes for tonight. Last night against IL St. I think the street (Vegas) was questioning our ability to perform, tonight I think the street (Vegas) is pretty well convinced that we should probably win but the likelihood for this to happen is small. By the way the confidence rating given by TR for the IL St. game was 2 stars, the same we are getting tonight but with a much lower Vegas spread in our  favor this time. Frankly, I think we may surprise the street tonight and win over the Vegas line, we will see.

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Another good game....some may disagree with this assessment, but my criteria may differ from theirs. 

Let's start with the spread...I was pleased to see that the Bills lead  was at or around 7 for nearly the entire 2nd half. It shows my metrics are rounding into shape. When I saw that 3pt stuff from the "experts" I knew there was going to be some easy money made on this game.

So what was the difference in this game?  

Let's review the WWN2D2W to get a better answer...

Contain Kensmil...hold him to 14 pts.....Pass...held him to 11...excellent...This made a difference

TOs  will be important in this game because they are susceptible to them and we need to cut down on them.  We need to win the TO battle... Neutral.....I mention in the original post in this thread that we needed to get TOs down... We didn't ...For the 2nd night in a row we had 16 TOs and for the 2nd night in a row it didn't matter because for the 2nd night in a row our opposition had 16 TOs...another wash game...TOs again, no effect.

out rebound them...Pass ...36-28...excellent ...this made a difference

Our target slash ...50/40/ 80...I am going to give this a pass ...while at first blush the numbers seem to be off... on closer inspection we pass...We miss the exact slash by the following ...we needed 1 more 2PM.... 1 more 3PM and we made 1 extra FT....so we were 1 off the entire slash...that's a pass

they can't shoot FTs...think F-. ... FTs could be a deciding factor in this game....this is a pass but not as big a pass as you may think...First, we made an extra 11 FTs not because of FT% but because they were hacking us heavy and we went to the line extra times. The reason it was not as significant was because they shot much better than usual...74% vs low 60s plus they too had a few extra shots...meant an extra 6pts....a net gain of 5 FT pts for the Bills...still significant.

The winner for most significant is ...3P defense...A weak spot for us this season ...it was good tonight....2-12 =16.7%...this cost the lumberjacks 9 pts as they are a decent shooting 3 team.

One last observation...We do need to get the TOs down...the last 2 nights it didn't matter but if they stay up this will come back to bite us.  Our target should be 11 /gm,,,,11 instead of 16 could make a difference of 10 pts / gm

Bottom line...another good game...another learning experience....presses , zone D , double teaming...and we are learning these lessons while gaining wins not to mention the experience players are picking up ....plus throw in some additional gelling and it could be a special season.

 

 

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As you know, everyone sees things the way they want to see them, this is also similar to the way the market works. The point is that we won this game despite poor scoring in the second half, poor refs, and a physical team incessantly hacking at us. As you say, we won because of many factors coming together. I thought it was a very good win against a tougher than expected team intent in beating us. As I have been posting, I am looking at the Vegas line and TR rankings as "sentiment" indicators of the street/Vegas expectations. We beat the Vegas line by close to 2X against SFA last night and still did not go up a single spot in the TR rankings. SFA lost the game by about double the Vegas line and went up in the TR rankings from 178 before the game to 174 after the game. My guess is that whoever is doing the odds at TR was not impressed with our win, but was impressed with the way SFA played. This is very interesting. It goes to show, again in comparison to the market, that sentiment indicators are subject to a lot more personal bias either way than numerical indicators (averages, RSI) and are.

Be what it may, we won this one against SFA and that is very good. Boise State comes next.

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20 minutes ago, Old guy said:

As you know, everyone sees things the way they want to see them, this is also similar to the way the market works. The point is that we won this game despite poor scoring in the second half, poor refs, and a physical team incessantly hacking at us. As you say, we won because of many factors coming together. I thought it was a very good win against a tougher than expected team intent in beating us. As I have been posting, I am looking at the Vegas line and TR rankings as "sentiment" indicators of the street/Vegas expectations. We beat the Vegas line by close to 2X against SFA last night and still did not go up a single spot in the TR rankings. SFA lost the game by about double the Vegas line and went up in the TR rankings from 178 before the game to 174 after the game. My guess is that whoever is doing the odds at TR was not impressed with our win, but was impressed with the way SFA played. This is very interesting. It goes to show, again in comparison to the market, that sentiment indicators are subject to a lot more personal bias either way than numerical indicators (averages, RSI) and are.

Be what it may, we won this one against SFA and that is very good. Boise State comes next.

Basically we won the first half by 11 and played the second one to  a standstill.  Not sure it was all that poor second half scoring.  The other team has something to do with that.

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40 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Almost strange to say this, but our performance at the FT line sealed this game.  Hitting on 29-35 for  82.9% is pretty spectacular for the Billikens.  SFA was 20-27 for 74.1%. Jimerson 7-8, Linssen 9-12, Collins 7-8, Jones 5-5 and Thatch 1-2.

This is the most refreshing stat I’ve ever seen.

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47 minutes ago, Old guy said:

As you know, everyone sees things the way they want to see them, this is also similar to the way the market works. The point is that we won this game despite poor scoring in the second half, poor refs, and a physical team incessantly hacking at us. As you say, we won because of many factors coming together. I thought it was a very good win against a tougher than expected team intent in beating us. As I have been posting, I am looking at the Vegas line and TR rankings as "sentiment" indicators of the street/Vegas expectations. We beat the Vegas line by close to 2X against SFA last night and still did not go up a single spot in the TR rankings. SFA lost the game by about double the Vegas line and went up in the TR rankings from 178 before the game to 174 after the game. My guess is that whoever is doing the odds at TR was not impressed with our win, but was impressed with the way SFA played. This is very interesting. It goes to show, again in comparison to the market, that sentiment indicators are subject to a lot more personal bias either way than numerical indicators (averages, RSI) and are.

Be what it may, we won this one against SFA and that is very good. Boise State comes next.

We went  to Cancun ranked 92 on KenPom, won 2 games, came home ranked 91.

Our rankings there worsened after beating IllSt by such a close margin, then improved by besting SFA by 11.

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20 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Up to 46 in Sagarin.

This is more in line with what I am showing. I  have us at 44...A- and in line for a Dance bid.  The problem is that we fall into the NCAA cloud. ...that place where all the numbers are thrown out and "they" decide if we are "worthy".  Think last year.

The good news is there is a long way to go and we have many chances to solidify our position. The next 2 games will be important as far as stats and rankings are concerned in my model.  In 2 games , I will have a big enough sample  size to verify the trends that are now showing.  If we can stay at A-....read that as win the next 2 games.. we will then be validated as a real contender...a team to beat.   After that , the next marker is 5 additional games  (end of OOC )  At that point the model will start to narrow our upside and downside and start to lock us in for a bid if we are worthy.   I would like to see us move up a couple of places to avoid the "cloud hell" we went through at the end of last season.

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1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

This is more in line with what I am showing. I  have us at 44...A- and in line for a Dance bid.  The problem is that we fall into the NCAA cloud. ...that place where all the numbers are thrown out and "they" decide if we are "worthy".  Think last year.

The good news is there is a long way to go and we have many chances to solidify our position. The next 2 games will be important as far as stats and rankings are concerned in my model.  In 2 games , I will have a big enough sample  size to verify the trends that are now showing.  If we can stay at A-....read that as win the next 2 games.. we will then be validated as a real contender...a team to beat.   After that , the next marker is 5 additional games  (end of OOC )  At that point the model will start to narrow our upside and downside and start to lock us in for a bid if we are worthy.   I would like to see us move up a couple of places to avoid the "cloud hell" we went through at the end of last season.

All this stuff about deciding if we are "worthy" or not is straight bias, or sentiment about how we are doing. This is what I am attempting to get a handle on by the Vegas line analysis plus TR rankings. The feeling is not favorable at this time, it seems. I think it was favorable before the Memphis game, though. These "feeling" and "expectation" issues tend to change very quickly and for what can be considered, very slim reasons.

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41 minutes ago, Old guy said:

All this stuff about deciding if we are "worthy" or not is straight bias, or sentiment about how we are doing. This is what I am attempting to get a handle on by the Vegas line analysis plus TR rankings. The feeling is not favorable at this time, it seems. I think it was favorable before the Memphis game, though. These "feeling" and "expectation" issues tend to change very quickly and for what can be considered, very slim reasons.

Then there is the infamous, ad hoc "eye test," which is thrust upon non-Power 5 + 1's like SLU, which no doubt played a role in last year's NCAA Tournament snub in which SLU became an NIT #1 seed despite its very NCAA worthy NET of 43.  The Power 5 are the Big Ten, Big XII, ACC, SEC, and Pac-12.  The +1 is the Big East.  The bottom line is room has to be made in that NCAA field for so many Power 5's, worthy or not.  Room is made by subtracting (sending to the NIT) otherwise NET qualifying teams from below the Power 5 + 1 Conferences.  A Power 5 or Big East school with a NET of 43 on Selection Sunday is extremely unlikely to be snubbed.

The only sure solution is to win the A10 Tournament and snare the A10's automatic bid.  Otherwise, win, win, win, get those Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins, avoid bad Tier 3 and below losses, and make the Committee's task that much harder to snub you.

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