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slu72

Around the A10

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Watching it. Not sure Davidson's got the guys to muscle up to Auburn. Do we? 

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Goodmundson has 1 pt tonight. Grady's got like 4. 

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Frampton is the man for Davidson. Our Jimerson? 

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Oh yeah, don't foul Davidson. 

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9 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Watching it. Not sure Davidson's got the guys to muscle up to Auburn. Do we? 

Simple but effective defensive gameplan by Bruce Pearl.  Clamp down on Jon Axel and make the other guys beat you.  They've got a lot of shooters but Jon Axel is the creative force on that team.

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3 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Simple but effective defensive gameplan by Bruce Pearl.  Clamp down on Jon Axel and make the other guys beat you.  They've got a lot of shooters but Jon Axel is the creative force on that team.

You can't ignore Frampton. Kid can shoot it. 

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Davidson playing rattled right now. 

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Auburn's very athletic and strong. They pass the eye test, i.e. Bulked the eff up! 

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Auburn by ten 76 to 66.  JAG with six or seven; ditto Grady.

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mason up 3 at under 12 over longwood.    vcu up 10 over north texas w/15 to go.  richmond down 2 at half to st. francis, pa.  the bonnies down 4 at half to vermont.  all home games.

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Davidson did not look good. Grady and Godmundson did not look great. Frampton is a shooter. 

Auburn is athletic and strong (muscle), and experienced. Can we take them in their home country? Probably not, but we are a WIP. We'll see. 

Really surprised at how Grady and Godmundson looked tonight. Blah. 

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I wonder if we will slow the tempo and play lock down defense against Davidson. Similar to what we did last year. 

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Mason wins 76 to 65.

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Bonnies will lose again at home this time to Vermont.

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Richmond erases a 10 point deficit with 1:21 to go and are now tied with 27 ticks left.

And takes it to OT.  St. Francis is out of gas.

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Just now, Billfan7 said:

VCU is only up 3 against North Texas with about 3 mins left

Was just about to post this.

Get your sh*t together VCU!

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VCU survives 59 to 56.  North Texas didn;t get a shot off in the last ten seconds.

Richmond now up three with ten ticks left.

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Richmond pulls it out 100 to 98.

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Looks like a number of the A10 teams are really having close calls and winning by a couple of points. Even worse, some of the teams they are playing are much lower in the rankings than they are. For example VCU was ranked 33, N. Texas was ranked 167 prior to the game. VCU was expected to win it by 15 pts, but the best they could do was to squeak a win by 3 pts! Richmond was ranked 83, St. Francis 239 prior to the game. Richmond was expected to win by 10.9 pts, but the best they could do was to squeak a win by 2 pts. St. Bona was ranked 153, UVM was ranked 92 prior to the game. They were expected to lose by 3.5 pts, and lose they did by 2 pts. All the numbers and ranking were from teamrankings from today, before the games were played.

St. Bona improved a little bit on the expected results against an opponent ranked higher than they were. This was not a terrible outcome for them, except that with a 0-2 record overall they go to the bottom of A10 (not for long I assume). The other games with their really close wins against opponents with a lower ranking in both cases do not look very good for either VCU or Richmond.

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7 hours ago, Old guy said:

Looks like a number of the A10 teams are really having close calls and winning by a couple of points. Even worse, some of the teams they are playing are much lower in the rankings than they are. For example VCU was ranked 33, N. Texas was ranked 167 prior to the game. VCU was expected to win it by 15 pts, but the best they could do was to squeak a win by 3 pts! Richmond was ranked 83, St. Francis 239 prior to the game. Richmond was expected to win by 10.9 pts, but the best they could do was to squeak a win by 2 pts. St. Bona was ranked 153, UVM was ranked 92 prior to the game. They were expected to lose by 3.5 pts, and lose they did by 2 pts. All the numbers and ranking were from teamrankings from today, before the games were played.

St. Bona improved a little bit on the expected results against an opponent ranked higher than they were. This was not a terrible outcome for them, except that with a 0-2 record overall they go to the bottom of A10 (not for long I assume). The other games with their really close wins against opponents with a lower ranking in both cases do not look very good for either VCU or Richmond.

Early on in the season the defenses are usually ahead of the offense.  Another good reason to lead with defense in the nonconference schedule.  It's your best chance to steal a win against a higher-ranked team.

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3 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

Early on in the season the defenses are usually ahead of the offense.  Another good reason to lead with defense in the nonconference schedule.  It's your best chance to steal a win against a higher-ranked team.

To 3 star, thank you for your commentary above, it is very useful to my early season thinking.

Now, to follow up to my prior post. VCU went down from 33 to 48 after the win by 3 pts, much worse than the 15 pts expected, last night over N. Texas. N. Texas, who managed to hold VCU down to a 3 pt win, went up from 167 to 144.

Richmond went down from 83 to 97 after the win by 2 pts, much worse than the 10.9 pts expected, last night over St. Francis. St. Francis, who managed to hold Richmond down to a 2 pt win, went up from 233 to 223.

St. Bonaventure went down from 153 to 154 after the loss by 2 pts,  just a bit less than the 3.5 pts expecte,) to Vermont. Vermont who won against St. Bonaventure by 2pts, a bit lower than the 3.5 pts expected, also went down in the rankings from 92 to 94.

All the rankings and movement in the rankings posted above are from Teamrankings.

This type of early shuffling of rankings at the beginning of a season has always fascinated me. Of course, as the season progresses the movement in the rankings will become less marked. What this early action shows me (and I may be wrong in this regard) is what teams were under rated and what teams were over rated before the season started.

Now, jumping to optimism here, I  am very optimistic about the Bills this season. Unfortunately, we had a prior commitment for tonight and will not be attending the game tonight. Go Bills!

I want to clarify the "optimism" designation I used above. It means that, at least to me, the early indicators for a very good Bills season are there, but not yet the confirmation by actual facts and statistics. This is not a willy-nilly assessment coming out of the clear blue sky, it is based upon a largely intuitive (due to the huge number of unknown factors involved) early probabilistic conceptualization of the Bills for this season. This early "optimism" has to be confirmed by actual wins before it becomes a reality. Dealing with the market is similar to this type of assessment I am making about the Bills at this early stage. It is early and things can still go wrong, that is correct, but I am very optimistic about this season.

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I would resist the temptation to read too deeply into Bayesian numbers.  Last year's numbers really don't tell us anything about what will happen this year.

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