BillsBeliever!!! Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Now that 2 teams have clinched a seed in the tournament ( SLU at 11 and Dayton at 1), I have decided to make this topic as a place to talk about what we think will happen, what does happen, and thoughts in general. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 With one game left the seeding looks like this 1. Dayton (clinched) 2. VCU 3. Richmond 4. Rhode Island 5. Bonaventure 6. George Washington 7. Mason 8. LaSalle 9. Davidson 10. Fordham 11. Saint Louis (clinched) 12. UMass 13. Saint Joseph's 14. Duquesne Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 Some stuff to know: 1) We play loser of Duquesne vs Saint Joseph's 2) Had we beaten Fordham, we could've had a shot at the NINE seed if we beat Richmond and LaSalle lost on saturday 3) Bills play 3/8 at 8:30 against 14 seed on ASN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glorydays2013 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said: Some stuff to know: 1) We play loser of Duquesne vs Saint Joseph's 2) Had we beaten Fordham, we could've had a shot at the NINE seed if we beat Richmond and LaSalle lost on saturday 3) Bills play 3/8 at 8:30 against 14 seed on ASN Wait so if the above is correct for 1, will we then play George Mason? That could be very beneficial for us. Kind of like a lesser Rams vs Seahawks matchup we have going this season with them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 7 hours ago, Glorydays2013 said: Wait so if the above is correct for 1, will we then play George Mason? That could be very beneficial for us. Kind of like a lesser Rams vs Seahawks matchup we have going this season with them We would of play George Washington, unless GW loses and Mason wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 7 hours ago, Glorydays2013 said: Wait so if the above is correct for 1, will we then play George Mason? That could be very beneficial for us. Kind of like a lesser Rams vs Seahawks matchup we have going this season with them If the tourney started today we would play the 14 seed Duquesne. The second game would be against the 6 seed George Washington. The third game would be against the #3 seed Richmond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 Just now, kshoe said: If the tourney started today we would play the 14 seed Duquesne. The second game would be against the 6 seed George Washington. The third game would be against the #3 seed Richmond. Yeah they were asking who we would play second Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 It's nice to have a decisive game for last place. Not often you get the 13 and 14 teams playing each other on the last weekend with the same record. It's also nice to know we have the loser of that one. I think I'd rather have St. Joe's than Duquesne, though, since we've already seen the Dukes twice. It's also nice to have an exact date and time set for our first game. As for who the 6-seed (which we'd play in the second round) will be, it should probably be George Washington, but St. Bonaventure, George Mason, and LaSalle have outside chances. GW is behind St. Bonaventure, and even though GW has the head-to-head tiebreaker, their last game is against Dayton and the Bonnies finish with UMass at home, so it's unlikely GW will catch them in the standings. GW is tied with George Mason at 9-8, but went 2-0 against GMU in head-to-head play. GMU finishes at VCU, so with both 9-8 teams playing the top 2 A10 teams to finish, they'll probably end up tied at 9-9. LaSalle is 8-9 and finishes at home against 7-10 Fordham. So if LaSalle wins and GW and GMU lose as expected, things get interesting because there's a 3-way tie at 9-9. The rule is that you take overall record against the group, which means GW is 2-1, LaSalle is 1-1, and GMU is 1-2 - even though LaSalle has the head-to-head against GW, GW would take the highest seed because they beat another 9-9 team twice and have the best overall group win percentage. But here's where things could get really weird: Davidson upsets URI on the road, which could give us a group of four 9-9 teams. In that scenario, group records are GW: 3-2, GM: 2-2, LaSalle: 2-1, and Davidson: 1-3. The league rule is that "the higher win percentage will prevail" so in this case, LaSalle is .667, GW is .600, GM is .500, and Davidson is .250. - and LaSalle gets the 6-seed. In short, if things play out as expected, it's going to be GW. If UMass, Davidson, and/or George Mason pull off unexpected upsets, things could get chaotic. Possible 6-seeds: St. B: 10-7. Final game: vs. UMass (4-13). To get 6-seed: Lose vs. UMass and GW wins vs. Dayton. GW: 9-8. Final game: vs. Dayton (15-2). To get 6-seed: St. B wins vs. UMass and Davidson loses @ URI or St. B. wins vs. UMass and GW loses vs. Dayton and GMU loses @ VCU GMU: 9-8. Final game: @ VCU (13-4). To get 6-seed: Win @ VCU and GW loses vs. Dayton LaSalle: 8-9. Final game: vs. Fordham (7-10). To get 6-seed: Win vs. Fordham and GW loses vs. Dayton and GMU loses @ VCU and Davidson wins @ URI Here's the bracket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Well, of course our lock of the 11th seed may depend upon other factors like who wins and who loses the final game of the season. I really do not think that we have a good or even mediocre chance of beating Richmond Saturday, but who knows? Who knows what will happen if Fordham loses the next game. Could we go up to the 10th seed. Any thoughts in this regard? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Old guy said: Well, of course our lock of the 11th seed may depend upon other factors like who wins and who loses the final game of the season. I really do not think that we have a good or even mediocre chance of beating Richmond Saturday, but who knows? Who knows what will happen if Fordham loses the next game. Could we go up to the 10th seed. Any thoughts in this regard? No, our 11-seed is locked. We can't catch Fordham and UMass can't catch us. The Richmond result won't matter for our seed, and Fordham's result has more of an impact on potential tiebreakers for the possible 6-seeds than it does for our standing. There can still be movement in the 2-4 range, but Richmond is still locked into the double bye range of 1-4 seeds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Thank you Pistol, the way seeds are chosen is and remains a puzzle to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Seeds are base don overall conference records. Ties between two teams are usually broken by head-to-head results. That is simple if you play once. If you play twice and split, you then go to the top of the rankings and see who beat the highest ranked team. Anybody beating Dayton would have that tiebreak. If not Dayton, then VCU. And so on until the tie was broken. Which could be a coin flip eventually. In the event of multiple team ties (say three or four teams all at 9 and 9) you take the four teams and see how they fared against each other. Bets winning percentage wins. Once the top of the four is determined, you wind it up and do it again for the now-tied three teams. An existing tie in that case resorts to the top-down comparison noted before. Once you seed the third team, the tiebreak is back to head-to-head with the two remaining teams and then down the list you go if still tied. Yes, it complicated to the novice but SOP almost across the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, Taj79 said: Yes, it complicated to the novice but SOP almost across the board. It's complicated to a non-novice, too. Even when you know the rules, the possible scenarios are many. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 I hope we get LaSalle as the 6 seed and the Hawks as the 14 seed. I think that gives us the best odds to play the 3 seed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Thank you too Taj, very nice explanation of the ins and outs of seed selection, and still complicated to me. I appreciate your and Pistol's effort to increase my knowledge base. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 I just found this site but it is pretty cool. I backed it off, but simply hit Submit and the current bracket comes up. I wish I had found this earlier. It bases the final bracket on anticipated results and lists all the tiebreakers. Or you can select upsets, for example click on SLU instead of Richmond, hit Submit, and get new information. http://bball.notnothing.net/atlantic10.php?sport=mbb You can also go to any conference, men or women. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: I just found this site but it is pretty cool. I backed it off, but simply hit Submit and the current bracket comes up. I wish I had found this earlier. It bases the final bracket on anticipated results and lists all the tiebreakers. Or you can select upsets, for example click on SLU instead of Richmond, hit Submit, and get new information. http://bball.notnothing.net/atlantic10.php?sport=mbb You can also go to any conference, men or women. Great find. Thanks for posting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 hour ago, HoosierPal said: I just found this site but it is pretty cool. I backed it off, but simply hit Submit and the current bracket comes up. I wish I had found this earlier. It bases the final bracket on anticipated results and lists all the tiebreakers. Or you can select upsets, for example click on SLU instead of Richmond, hit Submit, and get new information. http://bball.notnothing.net/atlantic10.php?sport=mbb You can also go to any conference, men or women. Whoa! This is really cool. Favorites are based on Sagarin. Looks like home teams are on the left. I think the toughest game to call is the 13-14 match between St. Joe's and Duquesne. So the biggest question is who we'd play first. If all else goes as expected, we'd have GW as a 6 and Richmond as a 3. Fordham-LaSalle is the next tough one to call. But the funny thing is, regardless of who wins that, if all other favorites win, they'll play each other in the second round (first game for them) either as 8-9 seeds or 7-10 seeds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 38 minutes ago, Pistol said: Whoa! This is really cool. Favorites are based on Sagarin. Looks like home teams are on the left. I think the toughest game to call is the 13-14 match between St. Joe's and Duquesne. So the biggest question is who we'd play first. If all else goes as expected, we'd have GW as a 6 and Richmond as a 3. Fordham-LaSalle is the next tough one to call. But the funny thing is, regardless of who wins that, if all other favorites win, they'll play each other in the second round (first game for them) either as 8-9 seeds or 7-10 seeds. I think the Wiz needs this! I do like the simple breakdown of tie breakers too, and how they change when you change an outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 2008 SEC tournament proved anything is possible in March https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_SEC_Men's_Basketball_Tournament Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 3 hours ago, HoosierPal said: I just found this site but it is pretty cool. I backed it off, but simply hit Submit and the current bracket comes up. I wish I had found this earlier. It bases the final bracket on anticipated results and lists all the tiebreakers. Or you can select upsets, for example click on SLU instead of Richmond, hit Submit, and get new information. http://bball.notnothing.net/atlantic10.php?sport=mbb You can also go to any conference, men or women. I played around with the Big Ten. It looks like the Illini are in at 8 or 9 and playing Iowa. Win against Rutgers and beat Iowa, a good chance they are in the NCAA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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