LaS over the Bills by 7

[The Wiz]

I think there were a number of Fetz records set at the last game...none of them good ...so we will move on. If you need to be punished more then read the wrap up on the RI spread thread.

The good news is that it is only a single digit spread. The bad news is we have fallen back to F+ (cupcake status) and we are playing a B- team...a team with a hidden weakness below that shiny B- grade

Last game I started the thread with a question that wound up defining the game.....Let's do that again.....

What happens when one of the worst offenses in the nation (the Bills...F-...) meets one of the worst defenses in the nation ( LaS....F- ..)  Yes it is true...below the surface of the stats lies a team that plays little defense....And this is where our chance lies . If we can take advantage of this...avoid a dismal shooting night ...we can win this game.  The operative word here is ...IF. Time for another question....If a team left us alone ,.would we be able to score?  Before you answer ..NO ...I am not looking for a fabulous night ...just a decent night ...say 42/ 35/ 68 with 12 TOs. That line is good enough to win and is doable 

So then you ask,  where does the LaS   B- come from?  Hmm...This must mean they have a pretty good offense and you would be correct....Their B+ Off against our C- Def.  So how does a LaS offense work...If you can spell guard them you have unlocked the secret.  You have to stop a team of guards.  Their top guy is Johnson...ave nearly 20 pts /gm....with an impressive slash line...50 /42 / 85...this guy can shoot plus leads the team in reb with nearly 7 /gm.  But wait their is more...2 more guards in double figures every night...Pierce and Powell.  OK , that's enough ...not yet....What about Roberts ?    Who??    Another guard who comes off the bench and is 10th in the nation from the 3pt line with a whopping 61% from the arc....This is how you overcome having a terrible defense.

Bottomline....Have a decent shooting night...they will dare us to shoot..... and also  play some tight D ..don't leave them wide open.  If we leave them wide open.....blowout.   We can do this ...if we try.

[Old guy]

This is purely conjecture of course, but  let's say that some team that will play SLU checks out the videos of prior games, the game against RI would be all they need. They would know that Crawford is not a real scoring threat, so they can leave him less well covered. They would know Welmer, Roby and Agbeko are real threats so they would try to double team them whenever they get close to the hoop. They know Gillman and Neufeld are not to be taken seriously and can be poached upon. So, who is left, Johnson, Moore, and Hines, Bishop is not playing at this time. They know Hines is a walk on and both Moore and Johnson are Freshmen and still testing the waters out. So, you fashion a defense based upon blocking Welmer, Roby and Agbeko, give some coverage to Crawford, and not worry much about the other three. The three guys they want to block can get double teamed most of the time. We have NO threats left in the bench and our three guys will become very tired and hurt from constant bumping by the end of the game. Does this sound like the RI game to you? I think we better memorize this because we are going to be seeing variations of this theme for the rest of the season. Unless constant practice can get Moore, Johnson and Hines up to speed as proficient D1 players, we are cooked, and all that constant practice will do is tire and depress the kids.

[cheeseman]

First of all, not many teams we will be playing have the talent that RI has.  Those teams will not be able to defend and rebound the same way nor drive the basket or hit 3s like RI did.  Second, that being said, we have to be on our game against any opponent given or talent level.  Third, Moore and Johnson can score if they are forgotten - enough to make up for Crawford's horrid shooting and slow drives to the basket - who knows.  Third. FT shooting has to improve and when a player like Crawford misses 3 in a row we are in trouble.  Moore can shoot FT but he does not get to the line enough at least not so far.  Finally, what choice does Ford have - take it easy on them the rest of the year and let things get even worse or try to improve those who will be here next year so they can be ready to run the kind of system he wants next year.  I think he has only one choice and that is the latter.  As far as the team being demoralized - too much is being made of all that - these kids know they are not good so if Ford gives up on them then they will feel even more worthless.  

[willie]

Ford has not given up. I thought he was the most antimated Friday as he has been all year. Threatening his team with after the game practice is not a coach who has given up. 

[Soderball]

On 1/1/2017 at 11:57 AM, willie said:

Ford has not given up. I thought he was the most antimated Friday as he has been all year. Threatening his team with after the game practice is not a coach who has given up. 

I think he is trying to cling to his attitude and persona at this point.

 

He suffers with us. One of us, one of us.

[billslasttermdropout]

Yes we are worse than DePaul (by a good deal, even).  No we won't give up.  The schedule will be followed in its entirety, so help us, God. 

[MusicCityBilliken]

6 hours ago, billslasttermdropout said:

Yes we are worse than DePaul (by a good deal, even).  No we won't give up.  The schedule will be followed in its entirety, so help us, God. 

Leitao has them improving. I think it was a good move by DePaul to bring him back.

Now pre-Leitao, especially when they had Wainright, it's similar.

[The Wiz]

7 hours ago, billslasttermdropout said:

Yes we are worse than DePaul (by a good deal, even).  No we won't give up.  The schedule will be followed in its entirety, so help us, God. 

DePaul is a C+ team . The Bills are an F+ team.  If we played DePaul and beat them, it would be considered an upset  ( 2 full letter grade difference) If DePaul was in the A-10 , they would be ranked 12th.  It gives you a sense that even with a much improved team next year, how far we meed to go to be competitive. 

[MusicCityBilliken]

7 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

DePaul is a C+ team . The Bills are an F+ team.  If we played DePaul and beat them, it would be considered an upset  ( 2 full letter grade difference) If DePaul was in the A-10 , they would be ranked 12th.  It gives you a sense that even with a much improved team next year, how far we meed to go to be competitive. 

Wiz, today you have LaSalle as a B-. What were they last year when they saved us the embarrassment of being the worst team in the A10?

Being that the good 'foul mouth' doctor no world beater and LaSalle has some of the worst facilities in the A10, they were able to improve to competitive level with transfers. Should give us some hope.

[The Wiz]

12 minutes ago, tarheelbilliken said:

Wiz, today you have LaSalle as a B-. What were they last year when they saved us the embarrassment of being the worst team in the A10?

Being that the good 'foul mouth' doctor no world beater and LaSalle has some of the worst facilities in the A10, they were able to improve to competitive level with transfers. Should give us some hope.

LaS finished last year at D.....This year they are at B- ...a big increase...almost 2 letter grades..  The A-10 is generally a B+ league.  In order to be competitive , you need to be at least a B- team. B- doesn't mean you are doing post season.  It means you will be favored in most home games and a number of away games. A  C+  would probably have us as favored in half the home games  and maybe a fourth to a third of the away games.

A full 2 letter increase is about as much as you can hope for. Even with an entire team turnover , there are still other issues as many have mentioned. ...melding new players together as a team ...adapting to college play....learning a new system...etc

Is it possible we could go higher than C+ next year...yes but it would be unusual. Also the A-10 varies a bit from B to A-...so even if we come in at C+ that might be competitive if the A-10 has a down year.

Bottomline...We will be better next year...we will win more games...maybe even be competitive ...Remember the changes may not yet  be done...so it is hard to forecast  the future until we know what the final picture will look like......

Tick ... tick...tick...10 months to go

 

[MusicCityBilliken]

Thanks Wiz, always enjoy your analysis.

Teams have done it, even mid season. Since we mentioned DePaul one has to notice the metamorphosis happening at St John's. I used to follow them in my youth.

Last year in the Big East they were 1-17. This year so far lost early to such  notables  (being sarcastic) as Delaware State, LIU & Penn State. Another lost season? Last week and 1/2 they beat Syracuse at the Carrier convincingly, Butler and DePaul at DePaul.

I would say they would deserve a couple grade raise.

[Cowboy]

19 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

LaS finished last year at D.....This year they are at B- ...a big increase...almost 2 letter grades..  The A-10 is generally a B+ league.  In order to be competitive , you need to be at least a B- team. B- doesn't mean you are doing post season.  It means you will be favored in most home games and a number of away games. A  C+  would probably have us as favored in half the home games  and maybe a fourth to a third of the away games.

A full 2 letter increase is about as much as you can hope for. Even with an entire team turnover , there are still other issues as many have mentioned. ...melding new players together as a team ...adapting to college play....learning a new system...etc

Is it possible we could go higher than C+ next year...yes but it would be unusual. Also the A-10 varies a bit from B to A-...so even if we come in at C+ that might be competitive if the A-10 has a down year.

Bottomline...We will be better next year...we will win more games...maybe even be competitive ...Remember the changes may not yet  be done...so it is hard to forecast  the future until we know what the final picture will look like......

Tick ... tick...tick...10 months to go

 

-my anticipation for next season is that we have some bumps in the road in the non-con and the first few conf games as the coaches and players figure out what we have and get everyone in their correct role but by mid January we are becoming a team that makes us almost able to forget this season

[The Wiz]

24 minutes ago, tarheelbilliken said:

Thanks Wiz, always enjoy your analysis.

Teams have done it, even mid season. Since we mentioned DePaul one has to notice the metamorphosis happening at St John's. I used to follow them in my youth.

Last year in the Big East they were 1-17. This year so far lost early to such  notables  (being sarcastic) as Delaware State, LIU & Penn State. Another lost season? Last week and 1/2 they beat Syracuse at the Carrier convincingly, Butler and DePaul at DePaul.

I would say they would deserve a couple grade raise.

C- to B...  a move of a grade  and a third. The BEast is an A conf...so DePaul is borderline competitive.

With the big test tomorrow...Creighton

I have Creighton as a 6 1/2 pt favorite... A win by St. J or even a loss by 2 or 3  pts would indicate to me that they have arrived ...It would move them to B+  and they officially would be a competitive team.  A loss  by 6 1/2 or more means they are close but still have a ways to go.

[The Wiz]

23 minutes ago, Cowboy said:

-my anticipation for next season is that we have some bumps in the road in the non-con and the first few conf games as the coaches and players figure out what we have and get everyone in their correct role but by mid January we are becoming a team that makes us almost able to forget this season

Agree...plus you have hope for 2018-19 ...where if we can take another step it would probably mean post season play.

[Old guy]

As per team rankings the Vegas implied scores for tomorrow's game against LaSalle are as follows: SLU 68.8, LS 78.2. The spread is 15.4.

[The Pelican]

19 hours ago, Old guy said:

As per team rankings the Vegas implied scores for tomorrow's game against LaSalle are as follows: SLU 68.8, LS 78.2. The spread is 15.4.

The line as of now is SLU +14.5; o/u 140. Sounds like the over is in order. 

[Littlebill]

Bills by 3

[The Wiz]

Not much to say...

I have noticed a new TO problem....it is not only the number of TO's but the spread. RI is 9th in the nation in TOs with 10.4  and LaS is a top 50 team with just under 12. Yet when they play us they have 8  & 9 TOs respectively. They go from very good to super...When you have 9 TOs or less in a game you are playing at record levels. Notre Dame leads the nation with 9.3/ gm.  Even when we cut our TOs to 15 it is still a differential of at least 6....a 12 pt starting spread before you even do any other numbers.

I won't prolong this.....

Bottomline ...we just don't have enough talent to compete...Next and only  win coming up...Feb 4......Next winning season ...Nov...............tick...tick...tick

[Soderball]

3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Not much to say...

I have noticed a new TO problem....it is not only the number of TO's but the spread. RI is 9th in the nation in TOs with 10.4  and LaS is a top 50 team with just under 12. Yet when they play us they have 8  & 9 TOs respectively. They go from very good to super...When you have 9 TOs or less in a game you are playing at record levels. Notre Dame leads the nation with 9.3/ gm.  Even when we cut our TOs to 15 it is still a differential of at least 6....a 12 pt starting spread before you even do any other numbers.

I won't prolong this.....

Bottomline ...we just don't have enough talent to compete...Next and only  win coming up...Feb 4......Next winning season ...Nov...............tick...tick...tick

Could the Billikens actually lose on Feb 4?

[The Wiz]

5 hours ago, Soderball said:

Could the Billikens actually lose on Feb 4?

It's possible but I will be picking The Bills to win.  Our weakest opponent  so far has been Chicago St (F) ...NC A & T is worse.

At this point in the season, most teams are set ....in other words not much variance.  However over the last few weeks we have been trending down.  That usually means one of 2 things...turmoil or injuries..  In this case I think it is injury.  We miss Bishop. He is our best player.  No matter what everyone thinks about him , we miss his points. Plus with no depth his absence creates a void.

In this game I tried to narrow the spread . The 1st numbers I ran came out to a 17 pt spread....I spotted the weak LaS defense....and weighted a little heavier.  narrowing the spread to 7. The question I asked in the original post ...can we shoot if they leave us alone ...was actually answered with  a yes. The above projected slash line was 42/35/ 68 ...we actually came in at 42/ 39/ 70.  But the extra TOs alone cost us 12pts. The point is ...it is hard to close the spread  with this team as their is no room for error...no depth. Perhaps when Bishop comes back we may see some closer losing spreads with maybe a surprise win.