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The Bills over GM by 2


The Wiz

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Yes, you read it right...we are favored for Sun. Enjoy it ...it won't happen much this season.

This will be the battle of the slightly below average. ...both teams check in at C-

GM is not a very good shooting team from anywhere on the floor including FTs. It is possible we could see a dueling deadzone game where both teams go into a funk and not score for 8+ min.

The BIlls show up as Dr Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Which one will it be or will it be both (again)

What we need to do to win

'

The Bills

TOs...12

FGA...More than GM

Slashline....45/35/72...even if we don't make these numbers we need to come close...this line has been very inconsistent...at least one number way out of whack each game.

Deadzones....None...play 40 min

Reb...35

GM

Livingston & Moore...pts...single digts

Thompson...No double double...btw this guy is a bad FT shooter..41.8%..don't be afraid to guard him

Also keep him under 50% FG...shoots 57% from field

Tot pts... less than 65

Reb 37

Bottomline....Even though we are favored this is not a gimme game as you can tell by the spread. GM comes in with a 4 game losing streak...they will be hungry. If we go into a deadzone again we will lose. We don't need to do anything fancy to win. Just play steady and consistent...avoid mistakes...Relax and play like the end of the Duq game. If we play a full 40 min we can blow this team out. I will take the win in any form.

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GW seems to be the only team we match up fairly well against, God only knows why.

George Mason, on the other hand, poses a problem.

You may be right in that we match up better with GW. But GW is a much more talented and skilled team than GM. Given a choice, I would rather play GM ( C- ) than GW ( B+ )

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GW seems to be the only team we match up fairly well against, God only knows why.

George Mason, on the other hand, poses a problem.

This is true. We've been terrible against Mason in the brief time they've been with us in the A10.

But they're having a similar season to us on paper. 6-11 overall. 5 players averaging between 8.8 and 11.7 PPG. They have a couple surprising wins - Ole Miss and Oklahoma State - but equally surprising losses - Colgate, Mercer, Manhattan, Towson, James Madison. They've been beaten soundly in every A10 game so far.

They're a very poor shooting team by every measure. However, they're a very good rebounding team.

They have a really unusual roster, with almost all players either freshmen or seniors. They have no sophomores, and only two juniors who play (and one walk-on). It's tough to get a team together when they're split so dramatically between veterans and newcomers, all playing for a new coach.

Fun fact: Therence Mayimba - who chose Mason over SLU - trasnferred to Northwest Florida State College to play Juco ball this year. He redshirted his freshman season at GMU and an issue arose about a foreign transcript that the NCAA wasn't clearing in time for him to play this season. So he left. Not sure what this means for his D-I future. He's averaging 6.1 PPG for NWFSC.

Anyway, on paper, we aren't going to have many (any?) A10 matchups closer than this one.

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Kenpom only has us nine spots ahead of La Salle.

Plus the Bills have lost to your spreads again the last two games, so if they lose the GM game it seems there would be very little room to stay C+.

Point of information...I have the Bills at C-

You are correct in that if the Bills lose they will probably fall back to D+....If Mason loses by more than 5 there is a good chance they slip back to D+ also.

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If they beat us by 28 again, would we fall all the way to D?

Probably not...It is hard to move much with 1 game at this point. It would be damaging though and we would definitely fall to D+. Also, after a 15-20 point margin the computer scales back the impact of the extra points...diminishing returns.

I think this will be an interesting game.....with 2 evenly matched teams playing each other it will become apparent who is over or under rated.

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Not to nitpick, but It's not really the over-under; that would be the total points scored in the game - say, 140.5 for a given game.

I know. I had made a point to pick "over", meaning that I always expected us to lose by more than we were predicted to lose by Wiz's calculator.in keeping with that, I had to switch it up and say "under" because in my book, losing counts as winning by less than 2.

This will be the battle of the slightly below average. ...

We're slightly below average????

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