The Wiz Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 " B " as in grade B. There was no sugar coating the numbers this year. We finished at D-. The purpose of this post is to show that we are not that far from being a B team (approx top 100). First let's see where we trended this year We started Nov down. It is hard for me to tell whether we trended down or we were down from the start as Nov is my data collection month. In any case we bottomed on Dec 9 in the loss to SDakSt. After the 9th, we started to trend up till Jan 23, the 1st VCU game...a game that slipped away at the buzzer. That is where I am showing we peaked. We had come from deep in F territory to D. A win in either of the next 2 games would have pushed us to D+ and possibly to continue trending up for a nice season finish. But the win never came and we stalled out, moving sideways from Jan. 23 to Feb22 (the Lasalle game) After that win something happened. I don't what it was but the numbers took a steep downturn. Generally, something like that happens when there is a key injury to a star player. That doesn't seem to be the case in this instance. Perhaps some on here know the trigger event. But in any case the season ended after the LaS game. So here we are ...just completed a D- ,just barely passing, sub 500 season . Now what? I think we should try to get on the Honor Roll ( B ) A B grade is a good season (around a top 100).... Not Dancing material but usually NIT. I am showing that had we been a B team this year our record would have reversed. (11-2, 9-9=20-11) Btw, I am not advocating we should shoot for NIT long term...we are talking about just next year. I think that is a reasonale goal. So how do we get there? First ...the players...Who wil we have? ...Who knows? Let's deal with what we know. Assuming Welmar will be as good or better than Manning , the question is will Neufeld be better than Glaze. The answer is an easy yes as Glaze didn't play this year. So next year we will, at a minimum, have better depth...add that to weght room and another year of experience and from a team aspect we should be better. So how much better do we need to be? ...Let's look at the numbers...Here is what we need to do to become a B team. I have tried to use general box score categories so it is easy to follow. Offense FGM...1 more basket /gm 3ptM...1/2 more/gm...ie an extra 3pt basket every other game. FTM....1 more /gm TOs.....1 1/2 less / gm....if we got rid of the bad games ( 18+ ) we are there Tot Reb...4 more/gm Blks.....1 more/gm Steals..1 more /gm Assists...1 more/gm Defense FGM.........1 less basket/gm 3ptM..........1/2 /gm...ie 1 less every other game Opp Tot Reb...1 less /gm TO Opp......same Blks (by opp)...1 less/gm Steals(by opp)...1/2 /gm...ie 1 every other game So there you have it. Do these things and make the Honor Roll and reverse the record. There will be those who say...what about player transfers,.. what if ...what about..etc I am telling you it doesn't matter ...unless you think the whole team is leaving than that's another story. Bottomline....The point of this post is that we are not that far away...the numbers for next year are very doable. Let's get on the Honor Roll next year. . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLUfan_42 Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Screw a B, what happened to the A+ days I used to know? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoBill Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Thanks for doing this. They way you presented it it seems like this is doable as you said. I think the hardest things for us to improve on are the +4 rebounds/game, and the +1 blocks/game. Just my two cents. Hopefully EW and Nuefeld can be bangers not afraid of contact to snag some defensive boards. I dont see AG fulfilling that role even with added muscle. Hopefully he proves me wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMouthBilliken Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Screw a B, what happened to the A+ days I used to know?Id settle for a C after that train wreck of a season. Wiz, if it wouldn't require too much extra work on your end, what would we need theoretically to be a B+ or A- team? Much appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Wiz, I know you have a program or system that somehow numerically gives the team a D minus. But my goodness, we lost nearly 2/3 of our games, we finished dead last in a rather pedestrian conference and most of the teams we DID beat were cupcakes. I sat through all the homes games and saw many of the others on the tube or computer. Our defense was bad, our rebounding was almost non-existent and the offense WAS non-existent. I gotta give this year's team an F. EDIT to add: the coaching left a lot to be desired too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 14, 2015 Author Share Posted March 14, 2015 Wiz, I know you have a program or system that somehow numerically gives the team a D minus. But my goodness, we lost nearly 2/3 of our games, we finished dead last in a rather pedestrian conference and most of the teams we DID beat were cupcakes. I sat through all the homes games and saw many of the others on the tube or computer. Our defense was bad, our rebounding was almost non-existent and the offense WAS non-existent. I gotta give this year's team an F. EDIT to add: the coaching left a lot to be desired too. I know it seems like an F especially after 3 great years but it could have been a lot worse. Ask San Jose St and Grambling St who didn't win any games. We won 11 and battled a lot of A and B teams close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 I know it seems like an F especially after 3 great years but it could have been a lot worse. Ask San Jose St and Grambling St who didn't win any games. We won 11 and battled a lot of A and B teams close. Yeah, I 'm mostly just ranting a bit. It was a tough season to endure and I guess there isn't too much difference between D minus and F anyway. And you're right, it somehow could have been even worse. Here's to hoping we've hit bottom and the future will be much better! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 We're 5ppg on offense and 2 ppg away on defense from being a .500 team in the conference next year. If the freshmen and sophs develop incrementally and Neufeld is serviceable at center, we're there. We don't need any great breakthroughs from individual players to be decent next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 14, 2015 Author Share Posted March 14, 2015 Thanks for doing this. They way you presented it it seems like this is doable as you said. I think the hardest things for us to improve on are the +4 rebounds/game, and the +1 blocks/game. Just my two cents. Hopefully EW and Nuefeld can be bangers not afraid of contact to snag some defensive boards. I dont see AG fulfilling that role even with added muscle. Hopefully he proves me wrong. Manning had 2 blks /game...plus the 4 we need to add= 6 so ithe 2 new guys plus a full year of RA ..he only had 3.5/gm for the year ( much more year end) ..we should be able to make the +4. As for the blocks ...Manning had 0.9 blocks/gm ..so we need 1.9 more next year...I am sure with the 2 new guys plus some others adding an occasional block we should be able to make that stat also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 14, 2015 Author Share Posted March 14, 2015 Id settle for a C after that train wreck of a season. Wiz, if it wouldn't require too much extra work on your end, what would we need theoretically to be a B+ or A- team? Much appreciated. It does take some time to set up because it is not what I normally do. And I don't want to bite off more than the Bills can chew. This would be a nice swallow for next year. I don't know about the rest of you, but I would be pleased with a 20-11 record, a top 100 team and most of the projected stats above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 I would be pleased with a 20-11 record next year, provided we get more wins against conference teams than we did this year. I think this is doable but first the issues that plagued the team after the LaSalle win must be identified and corrected, otherwise I am afraid we may not do very well once more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Wiz- At one point last season you had us at an A-. This roster will not be a top 100 team next year. We have a lonnngggg way to go and I don't think crews will get us there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 14, 2015 Author Share Posted March 14, 2015 Wiz- At one point last season you had us at an A-. This roster will not be a top 100 team next year. We have a lonnngggg way to go and I don't think crews will get us there. I guess it depends on what you mean by "a lonnngggg way to go." This year we missed 29 shots per game. At least one of those shots every game was a "bunny"...layup or 1 or 2 footer. I remember Conklin's first year. He missed a bunch of "bunnies"...it was very frustrating. Then after that year he didn't miss them. Remember in the above example , we need 1 more 2 pt shot made per game. Also, this year, we missed 7 FTs per game. We need 1 more per game ...If we get that extra 1 pt it will only bring our FT% up to 70%...not great but a difference maker. On defense, we gave up nearly 23 FG / game.. We need to stop 1 of those....Have we given the opponent any open looks in a game or an extra TO that lead to a free basket. Again 1 basket on D is a difference maker. As for Crews "getting us there". It isn't up to Crews, it is up to the players. Is Crews going to make that extra FT. Well then how will we get it. A player will have to go and make some extra FT practice shots. ..all the players...and a lot of FT shots. I know you don't always agree with my game forecasts but one thing that is hard to disagree with is the section in each thread that has " #s to win" In almost every case this year had the Bills followed "The Formula" they would have won the game. In this thread I have created a season long formula for next year ...if they follow it ...they will have the 20 wins ...the top 100 ...the B grade. Again, the point of this thread is to show that we are not that far away from being a good team. Those numbers are all very doable. Do we have a "lonnngggg way to go". I guess it depends on whether you see the glass as being 3/4 full or 1/4 empty. I see the cup as 3/4 full. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schasz Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 I guess it depends on what you mean by "a lonnngggg way to go." This year we missed 29 shots per game. At least one of those shots every game was a "bunny"...layup or 1 or 2 footer. I remember Conklin's first year. He missed a bunch of "bunnies"...it was very frustrating. Then after that year he didn't miss them. Remember in the above example , we need 1 more 2 pt shot made per game. Also, this year, we missed 7 FTs per game. We need 1 more per game ...If we get that extra 1 pt it will only bring our FT% up to 70%...not great but a difference maker. On defense, we gave up nearly 23 FG / game.. We need to stop 1 of those....Have we given the opponent any open looks in a game or an extra TO that lead to a free basket. Again 1 basket on D is a difference maker. As for Crews "getting us there". It isn't up to Crews, it is up to the players. Is Crews going to make that extra FT. Well then how will we get it. A player will have to go and make some extra FT practice shots. ..all the players...and a lot of FT shots. I know you don't always agree with my game forecasts but one thing that is hard to disagree with is the section in each thread that has " #s to win" In almost every case this year had the Bills followed "The Formula" they would have won the game. In this thread I have created a season long formula for next year ...if they follow it ...they will have the 20 wins ...the top 100 ...the B grade. Again, the point of this thread is to show that we are not that far away from being a good team. Those numbers are all very doable. Do we have a "lonnngggg way to go". I guess it depends on whether you see the glass as being 3/4 full or 1/4 empty. I see the cup as 3/4 full. Good to see there isn't just doom and gloom posted on the board and that there may be hope for next year. Lots of work by the players and coaches to get back on track. The fire Crews threads are stupid because it ain't happening after just one bad year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basketbill Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Watch some of the GW RI game and what struck me was how physical both teams were. We all know they need to hit the weights and add muscle and strength, but it will pay dividends in unforeseen ways. it made a huge difference for Evans....It will be huge for MB, AG, BJ, MC, and MR. Davel seems like he is half way there. I look forward to seeing their growth! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 I guess it depends on what you mean by "a lonnngggg way to go." This year we missed 29 shots per game. At least one of those shots every game was a "bunny"...layup or 1 or 2 footer. I remember Conklin's first year. He missed a bunch of "bunnies"...it was very frustrating. Then after that year he didn't miss them. Remember in the above example , we need 1 more 2 pt shot made per game. Also, this year, we missed 7 FTs per game. We need 1 more per game ...If we get that extra 1 pt it will only bring our FT% up to 70%...not great but a difference maker. On defense, we gave up nearly 23 FG / game.. We need to stop 1 of those....Have we given the opponent any open looks in a game or an extra TO that lead to a free basket. Again 1 basket on D is a difference maker. As for Crews "getting us there". It isn't up to Crews, it is up to the players. Is Crews going to make that extra FT. Well then how will we get it. A player will have to go and make some extra FT practice shots. ..all the players...and a lot of FT shots. I know you don't always agree with my game forecasts but one thing that is hard to disagree with is the section in each thread that has " #s to win" In almost every case this year had the Bills followed "The Formula" they would have won the game. In this thread I have created a season long formula for next year ...if they follow it ...they will have the 20 wins ...the top 100 ...the B grade. Again, the point of this thread is to show that we are not that far away from being a good team. Those numbers are all very doable. Do we have a "lonnngggg way to go". I guess it depends on whether you see the glass as being 3/4 full or 1/4 empty. I see the cup as 3/4 full. Fully agree with this. However as you pointed out the team hit a wall after the LaSalle game, this must be corrected if things are going to improve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Nick Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 I am basically burying my head in the sand until next year. On a seperate but completely serious note... Wiz - I am going to Vegas on Tuesday. Any interest in a quick chat regarding my picks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 15, 2015 Author Share Posted March 15, 2015 I am basically burying my head in the sand until next year. On a seperate but completely serious note... Wiz - I am going to Vegas on Tuesday. Any interest in a quick chat regarding my picks? Sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I know it seems like an F especially after 3 great years but it could have been a lot worse. Ask San Jose St and Grambling St who didn't win any games. We won 11 and battled a lot of A and B teams close. Or Fairfield, who earned the "Francis Flop" for worst Catholic team in this year's Pope's Poll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 17, 2015 Author Share Posted March 17, 2015 Or Fairfield, who earned the "Francis Flop" for worst Catholic team in this year's Pope's Poll. While Fairfield only won 7 games and wound up as an F+ team they did beat a Dance team.....play-in opponent Manhattan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I noticed that...amazingly, their RPI was still worse than ours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMouthBilliken Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I just want some more dunks. Is that too much to ask for? Even the crappiest teams do alley oops Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Dunks and 3's. Even if we suck, at least we might be relatively entertaining. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 Now that we have had some roster changes ....time to do an update. Take the OP and add the numbers from the missing players (McB & Lan) to find out what we need to do to be good next year. The new numbers can be made up by the 4 new players or a combination of the old and the new players together. ................................McB.& Lan.....................OP #'s......................New numbers needed FGM............................2.7..............................1..................................3.7 Rebs............................2.2.............................4..................................6.2 3ptM.............................1.4............................O.5...............................1.9 FTM..............................1.2............................1...................................2.2 Asst...............................2.2............................1...................................3.2 Stl.................................1.2.............................1...................................2.2 Blks..............................NC.............................1...................................1 TOs (less/gm)..............1.5............................1.6................................-0.1...we are there..addition by subtraction If there are additional roster changes, I will update again Bottomline...As I stated in the OP ...very doable...In fact you could argue it may be easier now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMouthBilliken Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Now that we have had some roster changes ....time to do an update. Take the OP and add the numbers from the missing players (McB & Lan) to find out what we need to do to be good next year. The new numbers can be made up by the 4 new players or a combination of the old and the new players together. ................................McB.& Lan.....................OP #'s......................New numbers needed Rebs............................2.2.............................4..................................6.2 3ptM.............................1.4............................O.5...............................1.9 FTM..............................1.2............................1...................................2.2 Asst...............................2.2............................1...................................3.2 Stl.................................1.2.............................1...................................2.2 Blks..............................NC.............................1...................................1 TOs (less/gm)..............1.5............................1.6................................-0.1...we are there..addition by subtraction If there are additional roster changes, I will update again Bottomline...As I stated in the OP ...very doable...In fact you could argue it may be easier now. By 4 new players do you mean the 2 recruits plus 2 more future signees? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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