kwyjibo Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Dan Hanner, who also writes for RealGM.com, has released his preseason predictions at SI (last year this work was at ESPN). SLU is ranked 129th and 10th in the A-10. This model takes into account projections from returning players and projections for freshmen from recruiting rankings. It actually values returning players fairly poorly but the recruits pretty well. I think the offensive projection is pretty harsh and fairly pessimistic (looks like it is says that SLU's offense is ranked 250+). The defensive projection is based on mostly indirect factors (height, % returning, coach, etc.) and SLU gets ranked pretty well defensively (cannot tell how high yet as not all teams ranked yet but looks like around top 30). http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2014/10/30/college-basketball-preview-teams-ranked Pomeroy uses a less sophisticated model that thought SLU's recent history would enable them to get to 81st (Defense also ranked well but offense is at least average in that model). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Dan Hanner, who also writes for RealGM.com, has released his preseason predictions at SI (last year this work was at ESPN). SLU is ranked 129th and 10th in the A-10. This model takes into account projections from returning players and projections for freshmen from recruiting rankings. It actually values returning players fairly poorly but the recruits pretty well. I think the offensive projection is pretty harsh and fairly pessimistic (looks like it is say that SLU's offense is ranked 250+). The defensive projection is based on mostly indirect factors (height, % returning, coach, etc.) and SLU gets ranked pretty well defensively (cannot tell how high yet as not all teams ranked yet but looks like around top 30). http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2014/10/30/college-basketball-preview-teams-ranked Pomeroy uses a less sophisticated model that thought SLU's recent history would enable them to get to 81st (Defense also ranked well but offense is at least average in that model). In my mind, these 2 projections set a fairly reasonable range of expectations for SLU. Anywhere between 81st and 129th seems probable for SLU this year and I'd feel okay with their finish. If SLU finished ranked much higher than 81, I'd be ecstatic and if SLU finishes much lower than 129, I'd be very disappointed. Most of excitement this year will come from watching the young guys develop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 What RU said ....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorB Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I will be very disappointed to finish at 81 or above. Very Very disappointed to finish at #10 in A19 -- are you kidding me? The talent is there folks. Stand back and let the big dog eat! We should be in the 40s by Feb. and I do not mean the temperature.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillikenMania Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I will be very disappointed to finish at 81 or above. Very Very disappointed to finish at #10 in A19 -- are you kidding me? The talent is there folks. Stand back and let the big dog eat! We should be in the 40s by Feb. and I do not mean the temperature.... This team has the talent, but will go through some ups and downs early on. The best case scenario would be lose to WSU and Vandy in the out of conference portion of the schedule, squeak by a few bad teams to avoid the RPI killing losses, gel in January and go 11-7 in league play. If they can do this, they will be right on the bubble heading into the conference tourney. The key to this season will be finding a consistent outside threat (Crawford) that has been lacking the past couple seasons, (thanks for the air-balls, Jake). They won't be as solid defensively, so scoring more points is obviously a must. Lob it up. Go Bills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenboy Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 This team has the talent, but will go through some ups and downs early on. The best case scenario would be lose to WSU and Vandy in the out of conference portion of the schedule, squeak by a few bad teams to avoid the RPI killing losses, gel in January and go 11-7 in league play. If they can do this, they will be right on the bubble heading into the conference tourney. The key to this season will be finding a consistent outside threat (Crawford) that has been lacking the past couple seasons, (thanks for the air-balls, Jake). They won't be as solid defensively, so scoring more points is obviously a must. Lob it up. Go Bills! I think the idea that we need a consistent outside shooter is overplayed. We have many shooters right now and always did. The key to the season will actually be our ability to establish dominant post play and have guards that can slash plus shoot the rock to keep teams honest. We have those now in AY, DV, MR, RA, JM, and MY. With their play the opportunity for outside shots will be there for Crawford, Lancona, McBroom, etc who traditionally will get their buckets from jumpers. I am confident Crews and Co are not depending on shooters to win games. Shooters are on today off tomorrow. My thinking is if you can have a Jordair like big guards and real go to postmen we will win more games than we will lose. And yes you will still see airballs from our shooters from time to time. Slashing guards and dominant postmen require double teams. That will open it up for the team to knockdown those open shots. Oh yes, lobs are going to there all season too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 This team has the talent, but will go through some ups and downs early on. The best case scenario would be lose to WSU and Vandy in the out of conference portion of the schedule, squeak by a few bad teams to avoid the RPI killing losses, gel in January and go 11-7 in league play. If they can do this, they will be right on the bubble heading into the conference tourney. The key to this season will be finding a consistent outside threat (Crawford) that has been lacking the past couple seasons, (thanks for the air-balls, Jake). They won't be as solid defensively, so scoring more points is obviously a must. Lob it up. Go Bills! That's not a "Best Case Scenario" that's what you think is a likely scenario. Best Case is to go undefeated. I'd be upset with over 89. I thought we were supposed to have higher expectations for this team and they'd win. Well I've got high expectations. Also can someone clarify if SLU does lose can we still blame Fr. Biondi sj somehow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 A-bomb, judging by my experience with my ex wife, anyone can be blamed for anything regardless of reason. Keep Biondi in your list of people to blame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 That's not a "Best Case Scenario" that's what you think is a likely scenario. Best Case is to go undefeated. I'd be upset with over 89. I thought we were supposed to have higher expectations for this team and they'd win. Well I've got high expectations. Also can someone clarify if SLU does lose can we still blame Fr. Biondi sj somehow? If we score 90 and hold the other team to 80 every night, we should go undefeated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiseAndGrind Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 If we score 90 and hold the other team to 80 every night, we should go undefeated. But what about Rockhurst? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 If we score 90 and hold the other team to 80 every night, we should go undefeated. i think we should defer to cassandra on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Dan Hanner, who also writes for RealGM.com, has released his preseason predictions at SI (last year this work was at ESPN). SLU is ranked 129th and 10th in the A-10. This model takes into account projections from returning players and projections for freshmen from recruiting rankings. It actually values returning players fairly poorly but the recruits pretty well. I think the offensive projection is pretty harsh and fairly pessimistic (looks like it is says that SLU's offense is ranked 250+). The defensive projection is based on mostly indirect factors (height, % returning, coach, etc.) and SLU gets ranked pretty well defensively (cannot tell how high yet as not all teams ranked yet but looks like around top 30). http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2014/10/30/college-basketball-preview-teams-ranked Pomeroy uses a less sophisticated model that thought SLU's recent history would enable them to get to 81st (Defense also ranked well but offense is at least average in that model). Just one thread or post but this gives us an idea what the thought was of our recruits coming into their freshman year. I'm also sure I can find posts from almost everyone on the board praising them. The players had the base of skills and athleticism to become good, talented players. They just have not been developed. Is that all on the coaching staff? Probably not all, but they need to be taught and I find it hard to believe that such a large percentage of players just don't get it and can't develop. It has to be what and how they are being taught. Had these players had RM I believe they would be pushing the levels of the JJ, DE, MM class. I guess it's correct they have no talent, but it's not because there was nothing to work with Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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