Recruiting Predictions...

[davidnark]

I predict that:

(i) We sign a juco power forward within the next two weeks;

(ii) Tommie Liddell ends up a partial qualifier for next season; and

(iii) The 5/8 rules is dropped, Mizzou is hit with probation, and JMac announces that he is transferring to SLU within the next six weeks.

DISCLAIMER: This is all opinion and speculation. Do not quote any of this as inside information or facts.

Anyone else have any predictions?

[3star_recruit]

I agree with (1).

I also think that Tommie isn't going to wait until summer to decide if he is going to prep school. Just a hunch.

[cheesycow]

didn't you know?

[kshoe]

I won't necessarily disagree with you on any one point (all are at least plausible) but I do have some follow-up questions that you or others may have answers to.

First of all, what does it take to become a partial qualifier as opposed to a full qualifier and what kind of financial assitance does a partial qualifier receive (full ride, financial aid, nothing). My understanding is a partial qualifier can practice with the team but not play his freshman year with no loss of eligibility if he stays on track to graduate. Is this correct? Tommie should know the results of his April 3rd test within a week or so.

Second, and I'm really just wondering aloud here, but as much as we "think" we may want to the 5/8 rule to be revoked so we can use the final scholly there may be some negative consequences of that happening, in particular bigger name schools that are also sitting on unused schollys may begin to recruit the juco guys we have been working on for so long. We certainly won't be the only school that gains an additional scholly if the rule is revoked. Just a thought.

[davidnark]

I would love to see JMac at SLU. JMac performed much better in a disciplined, structured system--like SLU--than he did in the chaos that constitutes Mizzou's offense and defense.

My JMac theory is just a hunch, but the spin from his people makes it seem plausible. Plus, if MU is really hit with probation, why would he want to forego a shot at the NCAAs?

[Sheltiedave]

If Tommie needs a bounce in his ACT to become a partial qualifier, he will be going to prep school for a year. Although the exact cutoffs are murky to me, I believe we are talking in the neighborhood of a 2.0 GPA (C average) and a 17 or higher on the ACT. Coughing for $20 to $30 large for freshman year out of pocket is too much even for ardent SLU alums like BRoy and me:>

The PF is a must, and we need a real PF that tips the scales at 225 lbs+.

If we do get Tommie in the fold and a PF as well, we are out of schollies and have no room for JMac, in the small chance he wants to transfer.

Do we have one or two schollies open for next year? I remember a kid from Kirkwood or Webster that said he was coming back to SLU about two years ago, but can't remember the details at all. If Tommie goes prep, then next year's class targets become Kevin and Tommie, filling a small class rapidly.

The 5/8 rule actually helps us, as a scholarship is killed off every time a player is signed. Schools like Duke and Zona that have two or three players a year transfer sometimes, have to eat the scholarship for the entire period the student matriculates(from what I've been told.) Zona can not use Wil Bynum's schollie until a four year period expires, or Wil leaves college en toto. This ensures that schools do not churn players. The 5/8 is a two year term, and then starts anew.

[kshoe]

First, if the 5/8 rule was revoked we could indeed sign more than Tommie and a Juco. A team is allowed 13 scholarship players. Ours would be (by college age) IO, TF, RB, AD, unnamed JUCO, IV, DC, JJ, BH, DP, LM, TL. Only 12. Thus, we would have one more scholarship. The only thing holding us back is that last year we used 4 scholarships and TL and unknown juco make 4 for this year, thus the 8 in two years.

Secondly, I think your interpretation of Bynum leaving is wrong. Arizona CAN fill his scholarship if they are not above the 5/8 rule. While multiple transfers will make a school bump up against this rule quickly you could have up to 3 transfers over a 4 year period and not lose any scholarships. 16 recruits (8 X 2) with a max of 13 scholarships to give at any one point. Simply put, no one transfer can cause you problems with regards to the 5/8 rule but multiple transfers are a problem. Bynum's scholly could have been given out immediately if they weren't on the 5/8 border and could be given out in a year or two if they went below the border (I don't know Arizona's exact situation). It has nothing to do with them having to wait 4 years until he would have graduated.

I don't know if your answer on a partial qualifier having to pay full tuition is right or not (hence my question from above) but don't forget prep schools are typically very expensive so juco is the more likeyl route and thus we wouldn't see TL until his junior season.

[davidnark]

http://www.shs.springfield.k12.il.us/info/...ligibility.html

Partial qualifiers can receive a full athletic scholarship.

[kshoe]

That is very helpful.

On the positive side of things the ACT is a pure sum of the 4 categories and you are allowed to take the maximum from each section. Meaning, if someone takes the test enough times standard deviations (guess right on a few questions, you see the same question again, etc.) should allow someone to increase an individual subject. I know some on this board say they know others that haven't increased their score but did they score exactly the same on all four sections. If so then their score for NCAA purposes would not increase but if instead of getting for 20s for an average of 20, the student now got a 22, a 21, a, 19 and an 18 the average would again be 20 but for NCAA purposes the average would now be 20.75. This means if TL really needs to improve his average by 2 it is doable.

On the negative side of things it is always been my understanding (perhaps incorrectly) that the biggest problem with TL being qualified was his core grades. If this is true its really more of an all or nothing thing for him as partial qualifiers require a GPA of 2.5 or higher. I hope all of this is a mute point in a week when we here that all of Tommie's hard work has paid off and he aced the test Saturday and he'll be wearing the blue and white next fall.

[Major Majerus]

Forget about the 25-30K - Pell Grants - as long as you meet eligibility. We've had walk-ons do this in the past.

[cheesycow]

when I say that IF JMAC wants to make the NCAA tournament, and Mizzou can't get there- I believe he would go somewhere other than SLU. It's not that I don't believe that SLU will make the NCAA tournament next year, but some higher profile teams than SLU would come calling if Jimmy wanted to transfer.

[Sheltiedave]

I would say wrong but right, as the prominent basketball powers generally can fill their scholarship bill every year, and do such.I wasn't sure about the duration of the hold on that slot. Zona had their full 13 ships filled, so when Wil transferred, they had to eat his ship for this year and could not recruit to fill the loss. If there was no 5/8, then there would be yet another McDonald's AA freshman on Zona's bench this year. The early outs and transfers reduced Zona to a top 40 team, yet with an immensely talented starting five before injuries set in.

Illinois ends up getting a top 75 commit(from Peoria Notre Dame) and then a top three shooting guard top thirty(from Springfield Lanphier) with their unexpected openings. Is the recruiting field equal? Lesser treams(like SLU)end up with a late entry foreigner(IO) and a second team Catholic Conference state mention(AD) when ships open. The reason that second echelon and lower colleges voted for the 5/8 was in part due to the penalty aspect of the ships, even though it might hamstring them in trying to fill their 13 man ship roster.

The rules committee discussed this at the annual confab and will vote at some time on rescinding the penalty side of the 5/8, as the powerful have already felt the pinch of the penalty side. SLU, on the other hand, was not penalized initially with losing Pulley and Edwin, although it badly skewed Brad's recruiting for his first panic summer. The only early out talent we have had in the past twenty years was Larry Hughes, who had to early out from a combination of pressing health bills for his brother, having a son on the way, and his own decision to withdraw from attending classes.

[davidnark]

Jimmey's boys: Floyd and Dwayne are tight with SLU. In a recent interview, Floyd Irons said that Jimmey is not necessarily happy with his experience at MU thus far, but that he is happy with his decision to stay "close to home." At various times throughout the last year, it has been rumored that Jimmey has interest in transferring back home. Plus, I disagree with your opinion that Jimmey will have many better options that SLU. Based upon recent RPIs and conference affiliations, SLU is a top 60 program and is the verge of being much better than that. If Jimmey leaves MU, it will be in part to move to a more comfortable situation like SLU. Again, I have no inside information, just well educated speculation.

[RecCenterRat]

he should know the score by now .. didn't he take it two weeks ago? .. you can call for your grade can't you?

Would JMAC have to sit out a year ..?? I assume yes ..

[estiger]

...to cause JMac to leave. There is still much debate at MU about whether or not MU will receive a post-season ban as part of its punishment from the NCAA. Most MU insiders say no, but who knows.

However, one thing that almost all MU insiders seem to agree on is that Tony Harvey and Lane Odom will be fired in the off-season and replaced with at least one experienced assistant coach. My understanding is that Jimmy's loyalties are tied to Coach Harvey, and that his forced departure could result in a JMac transfer.

As a Tiger fan, I hope this is not true, as JMac seems like a great kid, and he still has a chance to be a good player. He has clearly played out of position for the last two years, as he does not have the speed or ballhandling capabilites to be a top point guard. I'm still not sure that he will be a good 2 guard either. He is not as strong or as explosive as most of the top 2 guards, and his shooting from outside is only average. He also struggles on defense, as he is overpowered by most good 2 guards.

[aj_arete]

before he would go to SLU. Yes, it's true that his family wanted him to stay close to home, but I've heard that he had his sights set on North Carolina for a long time.

[aj_arete]

without Mizzou receiving any significant penalties. Tony Harvey wasn't involved in the Clemons recruiting, so why would he be fired? I can only speculate that he would be fired because there's some truth to Clemons' accusation that Harvey was providing money to players.

Though, I'd agree that McKinney is probably real tight with Harvey and that might be enough for him to transfer.

[estiger]

My understanding is that Alden is forcing a clean up of the program as a result of all that has transpired. I suppose Quin has decided to go along with it in order to save his own job. This may or may not be true, but it is my understanding that most of the so-called "minor violations" through the years involved THarv. In addition, even if no academic fraud is proved involving Clemons, and there is no corroboration concerning his allegation about illegal payments, there is proof that Odom called him like a million times in the spring before he signed with MU in violation of NCAA rules. Even the pro-Mizzou spin has admitted that the coaches on this staff have been sloppy and careless when it comes to compliance with the rules. I believe THarv and Odom are going to pay the price for this.

I also am hearing that the staff shake up is performance related, and is being forced upon Quin by Alden. This staff has shown poor judgment in some of the tactics they have used, and they have not shown the ability to judge talent, either. I think that the coach who convinced Quin last spring that Pulley was the answer at point guard should be canned solely on the grounds of performance. There have been tough recruiting battles which were won where the players turned out to be busts (Echols, John, Stokes, Ferguson, and kids who never played like Whaley and Okafor). Quin needs a couple less hip young salesmen type assistants, and at least one more experienced coach who can recognize talent, and steer Quin away from some of his impulsive bad judgment.

[billiken_roy]

if they are out, what's the holdup? what are they waiting for?

[Sheltiedave]

The whole basketball scenario at MOO is something from the Twilight Zone. Froma business standpoint, the time to clean house is right at the end of the season. Everyone goes to the Final Four with resumes in hand, so job turnover - firing and hiring - can happen and the now unemployed coaches can make the rounds and schedule interviews. Stringing everything out is unfair to asst. coaches, their families, and loved ones who are dependant on a good income and stable job.

Q has run a poor program in this regard. The player churning, the poor performance on the court, the numerous minor violations(some egregious and repeated,) the questions of academic integrity, and a former player spilling beans on multiple national forums lead to chaos within the program. National rags have reported rumors that bball program will take a large shot in the shorts. Even if there is absolutely nothing wrong with the program, Alden's atheletic department has taken a huge financial hit as donors close their pockets. Mizzou has lost a great deal of prestige because the basketball program is not being properly managed, and it all rolls back to Q.

I chuckle a little at the MOO and SLU basketball coaches. Boosters have both bought the coaches they desired...MOO got the flash and cachet they wanted for Paige Laurie Arena by paying close to a mil a year(for the Duke bloodline, but not the program,) and SLU got the blood and guts they wanted (over the MichST flash and cachet) for the Biodi Dome. It's a race to see if SLU can make the Big Dance before MOO gets banned from the Big Dance. The ardent MOO conspiracy theorists will be in full bay over all this foolishness.

[kshoe]

someone taking the test on April 3rd can expect to view the score online beginning the 13-15th.

http://www.act.org/early/info.html

[kshoe]

The past two years (and the coming year for that matter) we have only had 12 scholarship players on the team, not because we choose to do so but because of the 5/8 rule. If you want to get technical it was McClain leaving school at the last moment that left us a player short but really it is the cummulative effect of Pulley and Edwin flunking out and John Seyfert getting home sick. While it is true the 5/8 rule penalizes the big schools that have player defections to the NBA it also penalizes schools that have coaching changes (which are usually accompanied by player transfers of some sort) and schools that use a lot of JUCOs (try recruiting a team full of jucos with the 5/8 rule in place).

[tseugnekillib]

Normally, 10-15% of the head coaching jobs turnover every year. Perhaps Missouri's admin is hoping/praying that someone would take LO and/or TH as either head coaches or as new assistants. This would save Missouri from the dirty task of firing them! Unfortunately, the turnover in head coaching jobs is running a little slow thus far this year.

[davidnark]

The odds of JMac ending up at UNC are about the same as Tyler H. ending up at SLU: zero.

[MusicCityBilliken]

Your right, it is better they leave because canning them could be a nasty law suit. Even if Mizzou would win the law suit, it could further embarrass them.