kwyjibo Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 kshoe, on 21 October 2011 - 03:55 PM, said: 7 losses is the most this team can have and still be a serious at-large candidate. If we lose 4 at home we are F'd. A few weeks ago kshoe made this comment. Using Ken Pomeroy's projected record for all of our opponents (definitely the best estimate available and better than estimation methods I have used in the past) and some rougher estimates of our opponent's opponents record (luckily there is not as much variance in the estimate) I have confirmed that kshoe is generally right if you are thinking about SLU's at large chances. They need 7 losses or fewer to have a "no sweat" chance at an "at-large" berth. More losses might make it as well but then we need other "profile" positives (good wins over top 25/50, no bad losses, down the stretch, etc.). Also, kshoe is astute in noting 4 home losses would hurt the team (they could make it with 4 home losses BUT home losses hurt RPI rank a little bit more so RPI-wise 8 losses with 4 at home is worse than 8 losses 3 at home). A 9 win reg season team could dance as well but then you getting into strong nail biting territory and hope there is something about your profile that appeals to the committee. Our chances with various records (record/RPI/rank of that RPI using last years rankings/location of losses): 22-7 / .602 / 28 / 3H 1N 3A 22-7 / .5981 / 31 / 4H 1N 2A 21-8 / .5926 / 34 / 3H 1N 4A 21-8 / .5886 / 37 / 4H 1N 3A 20-9 / .5819 / 43 / 3H 1N 5A 20-9 / .5784 / 47 / 4H 1N 4A There are tons of caveats about this and ultimately the profile matters not the RPI rank (although RPI rank is a strong factor according to the 10 year Dance Card analysis*). So avoiding bad losses and getting good wins are important as well. For me the bottom line is that if SLU has a tourney caliber team they should be able to prove it and if they win games they will receive the at-large. The schedule is not easy but does have a lot of winnable home non-conference games. The A-10 has two likely tourney caliber teams and SLU will need to do well against them as well as proving their worthiness over a grueling conference schedule that gets tougher down the stretch. *Dance Card is the single number statistically validated metric that predicts a tad better than "experts". I do not think we have discussed this but I will definitely bring this up later in the year if SLU is in the hunt. The most interesting result of the Dance Card people is that there is a bias toward BCS schools, toward schools with a rep on the committee, etc. However, they also showed a small bias toward the A-10 and other mid-tier conferences. I actually have the Dance Card equations (they have 61 factors although they have a "reduced" model of about half of that). At minimum, I will have some Dance Card estimates in early January if SLU is still viable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 A few weeks ago kshoe made this comment. Using Ken Pomeroy's projected record for all of our opponents (definitely the best estimate available and better than estimation methods I have used in the past) and some rougher estimates of our opponent's opponents record (luckily there is not as much variance in the estimate) I have confirmed that kshoe is generally right if you are thinking about SLU's at large chances. They need 7 losses or fewer to have a "no sweat" chance at an "at-large" berth. More losses might make it as well but then we need other "profile" positives (good wins over top 25/50, no bad losses, down the stretch, etc.). Also, kshoe is astute in noting 4 home losses would hurt the team (they could make it with 4 home losses BUT home losses hurt RPI rank a little bit more so RPI-wise 8 losses with 4 at home is worse than 8 losses 3 at home). A 9 win reg season team could dance as well but then you getting into strong nail biting territory and hope there is something about your profile that appeals to the committee. Our chances with various records (record/RPI/rank of that RPI using last years rankings/location of losses): 22-7 / .602 / 28 / 3H 1N 3A 22-7 / .5981 / 31 / 4H 1N 2A 21-8 / .5926 / 34 / 3H 1N 4A 21-8 / .5886 / 37 / 4H 1N 3A 20-9 / .5819 / 43 / 3H 1N 5A 20-9 / .5784 / 47 / 4H 1N 4A There are tons of caveats about this and ultimately the profile matters not the RPI rank (although RPI rank is a strong factor according to the 10 year Dance Card analysis*). So avoiding bad losses and getting good wins are important as well. For me the bottom line is that if SLU has a tourney caliber team they should be able to prove it and if they win games they will receive the at-large. The schedule is not easy but does have a lot of winnable home non-conference games. The A-10 has two likely tourney caliber teams and SLU will need to do well against them as well as proving their worthiness over a grueling conference schedule that gets tougher down the stretch. *Dance Card is the single number statistically validated metric that predicts a tad better than "experts". I do not think we have discussed this but I will definitely bring this up later in the year if SLU is in the hunt. The most interesting result of the Dance Card people is that there is a bias toward BCS schools, toward schools with a rep on the committee, etc. However, they also showed a small bias toward the A-10 and other mid-tier conferences. I actually have the Dance Card equations (they have 61 factors although they have a "reduced" model of about half of that). At minimum, I will have some Dance Card estimates in early January if SLU is still viable. Thanks for the detailed analysis kwyjibo. I must admit my comment about 4 losses at home (given the 7 in general) was really meant to be more of a statement that us having only 3 losses on the road or neutral courts (given the Anaheim tourney, 8 A-10 games, New Mexico, Loyola, and SIU) seems darn near impossible. It would be really fun if this year our NCAA tourney hopes focus on "how many of the final 10 games do we need to win" rather than the typical, "if we win out and get to the championship game of the A-10 tourney will we be considered?" discussion that has occured in the past. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsrmajic Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 A few weeks ago kshoe made this comment. Using Ken Pomeroy's projected record for all of our opponents (definitely the best estimate available and better than estimation methods I have used in the past) and some rougher estimates of our opponent's opponents record (luckily there is not as much variance in the estimate) I have confirmed that kshoe is generally right if you are thinking about SLU's at large chances. They need 7 losses or fewer to have a "no sweat" chance at an "at-large" berth. More losses might make it as well but then we need other "profile" positives (good wins over top 25/50, no bad losses, down the stretch, etc.). Also, kshoe is astute in noting 4 home losses would hurt the team (they could make it with 4 home losses BUT home losses hurt RPI rank a little bit more so RPI-wise 8 losses with 4 at home is worse than 8 losses 3 at home). A 9 win reg season team could dance as well but then you getting into strong nail biting territory and hope there is something about your profile that appeals to the committee. Our chances with various records (record/RPI/rank of that RPI using last years rankings/location of losses): 22-7 / .602 / 28 / 3H 1N 3A 22-7 / .5981 / 31 / 4H 1N 2A 21-8 / .5926 / 34 / 3H 1N 4A 21-8 / .5886 / 37 / 4H 1N 3A 20-9 / .5819 / 43 / 3H 1N 5A 20-9 / .5784 / 47 / 4H 1N 4A There are tons of caveats about this and ultimately the profile matters not the RPI rank (although RPI rank is a strong factor according to the 10 year Dance Card analysis*). So avoiding bad losses and getting good wins are important as well. For me the bottom line is that if SLU has a tourney caliber team they should be able to prove it and if they win games they will receive the at-large. The schedule is not easy but does have a lot of winnable home non-conference games. The A-10 has two likely tourney caliber teams and SLU will need to do well against them as well as proving their worthiness over a grueling conference schedule that gets tougher down the stretch. *Dance Card is the single number statistically validated metric that predicts a tad better than "experts". I do not think we have discussed this but I will definitely bring this up later in the year if SLU is in the hunt. The most interesting result of the Dance Card people is that there is a bias toward BCS schools, toward schools with a rep on the committee, etc. However, they also showed a small bias toward the A-10 and other mid-tier conferences. I actually have the Dance Card equations (they have 61 factors although they have a "reduced" model of about half of that). At minimum, I will have some Dance Card estimates in early January if SLU is still viable. This is very interesting. Thanks for providing us with this analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmbilliken Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 We need 26 wins to be a lock for an at large big. 25 and we're 50/50. 24 and we're doubtful. 23 NIT 22 and we're 50/50 for the NIT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 We need 26 wins to be a lock for an at large big. 25 and we're 50/50. 24 and we're doubtful. 23 NIT 22 and we're 50/50 for the NIT We go 25-5 in the regular season and we are in the tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 We go 24-7 with a couple quality wins over teams like Wash, NM, Nova, Temple or Xavier, we should feel good about our chances. Actually I counted 28 regular season games, not counting Illinois-Springfield, if we are 23-5 going into the conference tournament, we are a lock. 24-6 we're probably in, anything less than that and we're probably not in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 We need 26 wins to be a lock for an at large big. 25 and we're 50/50. 24 and we're doubtful. 23 NIT 22 and we're 50/50 for the NIT This is just wrong. Read what kwjibo wrote. 23-7 is projected to give us an RPI of 28-31 range. 25 wins would likely be a sub 20 RPI. You think its 50/50 they take us in the dance if our RPI is in the top 20? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 We go 24-7 with a couple quality wins over teams like Wash, NM, Nova, Temple or Xavier, we should feel good about our chances. Actually I counted 28 regular season games, not counting Illinois-Springfield, if we are 23-5 going into the conference tournament, we are a lock. 24-6 we're probably in, anything less than that and we're probably not in. Not counting Illinois-Spring., we will have 29 regular season games. We will play 2 additional games in the 76 Classic besides BC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 -thanks kwjibo, good stuff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 This is just wrong. Read what kwjibo wrote. 23-7 is projected to give us an RPI of 28-31 range. 25 wins would likely be a sub 20 RPI. You think its 50/50 they take us in the dance if our RPI is in the top 20? Yeah, 25 wins would mean a decent RPI even if our opponents mostly do worse than expected. The same goes for 24 wins no matter how you slice it. 22-7 (or 23-7 if you include the UIS game) gives a good record and would be highly likely to give as a good RPI and profile. There are really unlikely ways 22-7 could also make our profile worse even if we have a decent RPI (if we lose 7 games but NO ONE in the A-10 other than X and Temple have good seasons so we have no top 100 wins AND we lose to X and the Dukes and a have a bad loss in our first A-10 tourney game to make us look like we are out of gas AND we have a major injury late). Last year Harvard had a decent RPI (36) and did not get a bid but their conference only produced 1 other top 100 team and they lost to the 2 top 100 teams they played non-conf. That kind of thing just will not happen to a A-10 team because they will likely have 4-6 top 100 teams so SLU will likely play at least 7 top 100 teams this year. My point is a lot of other things have to go wrong (RPI has to be lower, other profile items have to look bad, etc.) for 22-7 to not work out. It is far more likely that 21-8 will work out for selection (a few top 100 or top 50 home wins against Washington or X or Temple or whoever else ends up doing well in the A10). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Unless we have about 6 non conference losses or the A10 absolutely sucks this year, 3rd in the A10 will get us in the tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Nick Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Lets revisit this topic in 4 games and see how we feel then. 22 wins would be an amazing season for a team that has been reeling for the last 10 years. 23 would be ridiculous. 24? huh? when did we turn into Kentucky? That said, this is the season when we finally have experience. We have all hands on deck. No excuses anymore. Under 20 wins would be a crushing dissapointment for many on this board and I would predict that Vegas would probably put our record over/under at 18-19 wins. Tough going into a season with greater than 50% chance of experiencing crushing dissapointment. One game at time. Let's not look past TN St. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duff Man Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Le Lets revisit this topic in 8 games and see how we feel then. fixed. 6-2 would be great. 5-3 is acceptable. 4-4 means we're in trouble. No bad losses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Not counting Illinois-Spring., we will have 29 regular season games. We will play 2 additional games in the 76 Classic besides BC. You're right, we have 29 regular season games. I was looking at our KenPom page and he doesn't have the Texas Southern game listed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Not counting Illinois-Spring. AKA, the new Rockhurst. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.