Quality Is Job 1 Posted August 19, 2003 Share Posted August 19, 2003 Saint Louis University loses four players to graduation (Marque Perry, Kenny Brown, Drew Diener, and Chris Braun). That fact is at the foundation of my projection that the Billikens' record in 2003-04 will be about the same as it was in 2002-03. Built on top of that foundation is another fact. SLU has seven newcomers (Reggie Bryant, Tom Frericks, Brandon Morris, Justin Johnson, Ian Vouyoukas, Darren Clarke, and Bryce Husak) and Floyd McClain returns from an absence from playing spanning two years (the entire time coach Brad Soderberg has been at SLU). Topping it off, SLU returns just five scholarship players (Josh Fisher, Chris Sloan, Izik Ohanon, Anthony Drejaj, and Ross Varner). None of them has lit up the Div. I scene as of yet. That building seems rather shaky to me, hence my projection of around .500. However, then I considered the following. Each of the departing players will essentially be replaced by two newcomers. Brown will be replaced by Frericks and Johnson. Braun will be replaced by Vouyoukas and Husak. Diener will be replaced by Bryant and McClain. Perry will be replaced by Morris and Clarke. If the newcomers gel, the team would theoretically be better even if the holdovers don't provide any more production than they did last year. Here's why: Greater depth. Even if Husak redshirts as expected, the Bills will go from having just nine scholarship players available for action in games to having 12 guys itching to get and stay on the floor until fatigue forces them to get off. The team will have greater insurance against fatigue, injury, foul trouble, and the occasional off performance by individual players. Also, the increase in competition among the players in practice should make the team better. Greater athleticism. Each of the players "replacing" Diener is far more athletic than he was. Johnson also favorably adds to the mix. Better shooting. It appears that each of the departing players is replaced by a tandem that features at least one member that can shoot comparably or better. Braun is the lone possible exception, as I don't think Vouyoukas can hit three-point shots. I would even argue that Bryant will be a better shooter than Diener because he'll be better able to keep opponents off balance with athleticism and greater slashing ability (it doesn't take much slashing to be better than Diener) and get his shot off. Better ballhandling and playmaking. Morris is reportedly a true point. It will be the first time SLU has not had to rely upon a combo guard to run the point full time since John Redden departed. Soderberg's offense may well run with more precision in this, his second year. Besides all of that, it's reasonable to expect the holdovers to improve the quality of their play (even if the quantity decreases as a result of greater depth and competition for playing time), not remain the same. Well! Is that enough for me and "my followers" in the "pessimists" camp to switch allegiance to Nark and "his followers" in the optimists camp? Maybe I'm starting to hedge, as there's an eternal optimist in me trying to get out, but I've got to stick to my projection of "about the same." While I tend to believe the 2004 team will be better at the end of the season than the 2003 team was at the end of last season (and that's scary, because that team managed an eight-game win streak), I also believe that the 2004 team will be searching for its identity at the beginning of the season even more than the 2003 team was at the beginning of last season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted August 19, 2003 Share Posted August 19, 2003 Good post! I see this is an incredibly hard year to project, due to a number of issues, such as new player, relatively new coach. We all know the negatives on why they will have problems. With that said ... Brad made a believer out of me last year. There is no way the team should have accomplished what they did last year. I think we have overall more talent than last year ... so I have to believe that Brad can mold this team together and we will end up with a better record. If we end up at 500 or a few games either way I will probably think that that is where this team belonged. ... But If we end up 6 or 7 games over I also will not be surprised. So basically I've said nothing ... But if I was betting I'd bet on at least 5 games over ... so put me in the Nark camp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NashvilleBilliken Posted August 19, 2003 Share Posted August 19, 2003 That's exactly what I've been saying all along (only you said it better). You are right, we will struggle with identity during the first few games, but we will still have enough talent to beat the TN-Martins and Houstons on our schedule. Last year we were also adjusting to Brad's system...a system that we eventually thrived on. Since the core of this team already has a year in his system and after that loss to Minnesota, we're gonna come out of the gate better than last year. Obviously I'm an optimist, but I think this team will do no worse than 2 games over .500. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted August 19, 2003 Share Posted August 19, 2003 Looking at the non conference schedule: Wins East Kent Sav. St N.C. A&T Grambling SMS K State Losses Arizona Undecided At West Virginia ... on the road early At Georgia Tech ... I don't know anything about them Anyone else? Butler ... what do they have returning ? At Dayton ... On the road ... are they losing a lot ? What does any one know about the teams I listed as undecided or your thoughts on the ones I think are wins. I doubt anyone will argue Arizona as a loss. At least this isn't a Mizzou or Baylor thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted August 19, 2003 Share Posted August 19, 2003 i'll let you know in 3 months and 11 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted August 19, 2003 Share Posted August 19, 2003 Come on Roy ... play along with the other boys and girls. Pick'em game by game. There is no money involved is there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted August 19, 2003 Author Share Posted August 19, 2003 I understand you want to wait, Roy, but before the season starts you're going to have to participate in the annual "guess the Bills' final record" contest. You can't wait until January first, after nine or so games have been played, to project the team's final record in the contest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thetorch Posted August 19, 2003 Share Posted August 19, 2003 11/21 Eastern Kentucky - Win 11/24 Savannah State - Win 11/29 North Carolina A&T - Win 12/6 Arizona - Loss 12/13 @Georgia Tech - Loss 12/17 Grambling - Win 12/20 @SMS - Win 12/27 Butler - Win 12/31 @Dayton - Loss 1/3 Kansas St. - Win 7-3 into conference will be fine by me. We will end up 4-5 games over .500 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aj_arete Posted August 20, 2003 Share Posted August 20, 2003 since I haven't seen many of the newcomers. My instincts tell me that Brad is one great recruiter and that this Billiken edition will be more athletic, quicker, and skilled than the last few years. While I agree that blending in these newcomers will be difficult, I can't think of many men besides Brad that I would like accomplishing that objective. I tend to agree with you that the team's record should be similar from last year, but I think it's possible for SLU to finish in the top 4 this year because I think CUSA will be down this year. Overall, that was a great synopsis of what we should expect from SLU this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted August 20, 2003 Share Posted August 20, 2003 > Undecided > At West Virginia ... on the road early They don't defend well at all. And Drew Schifino accounts for over 30% of their offense. They're definitely vulnerable. > At Georgia Tech ... I don't know anything about them They lost their leading scoring, rebounder and shotblocker, Chris Bosh, to the draft. They've got a number of run-and-jump athletes returning, however, and those kinds of teams always gives us trouble. > Butler ... what do they have returning ? Three of their top four scorers graduated and each of those guys played at least 30 minutes a game. This should be a rebuilding year. Hopefully Josh, Izik and Sloan will take this game personally after the way we got spanked last season. > At Dayton ... On the road ... are they losing a lot ? Leading scorer Brooks Hall and sixth man enforcer Nate Green are gone but everyone else of consequence is back. Their frontcourt is very good with All-Conference selection Keith Waleskowski and 6-11 center Sean Finn. Should be another hard-fought game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted August 20, 2003 Share Posted August 20, 2003 The Torch picked: 11/21 Eastern Kentucky - Win 11/24 Savannah State - Win 11/29 North Carolina A&T - Win 12/6 Arizona - Loss 12/13 @Georgia Tech - Loss 12/17 Grambling - Win 12/20 @SMS - Win 12/27 Butler - Win 12/31 @Dayton - Loss 1/3 Kansas St. - Win 7-3 into conference will be fine by me. We will end up 4-5 games over .500 We could easily lose against SMS, Butler, And KState leaving us 4-6. I don't see that but it is possible. We'll know where we are those last 11 days in December and the first 3 in January. I see us finishing over .500 but not 4 wins over 500 befor the conf. seaseon starts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluSignGuy Posted August 20, 2003 Share Posted August 20, 2003 Roy...the season starts in about 3 months and 2 days.... hehe you don't get a 3 freebie Games senor. Steve I know you probably just made an honest mistake, no worries Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted August 20, 2003 Share Posted August 20, 2003 to make any predictions without even seeing practices is crazy. i mean all one has to do is remember ricky cranford or greg hardin. we were led to believe that both were tip top ny players and the first time we saw them it was obvious we had been taken. i still wonder if spoon had even seen either ever play or was he just paying off an old gambling debt or something. my gosh we got basically 7 new players and we have folks predicting the schedule. impossible. so with that said, dont hold me to any of the following at this time. and yes steve i understand i will have to officially go on record for my predictions before the season starts. my statement about wait 3 months and 11 days is stating when we will actually have a clue about how good the team might be. in reality, about the middle of january we will really know. but anyway, to be a good sport, i will blindly predict the non-conference games. the tough ones are sms, butler and dayton. imo that could be the difference between a 500 season or not. those 3 games are going to be tough games. and to be honest, if we want to go to the ncaa tourney, considering we have what appears to be an easier schedule than last year, my guess is we cannot afford to go 0-3 or even 1-2 in those 3 games. eastern kentucky win savanaugh state win north carolina a&t win arizona loss georgia tech loss grambling win sms win butler win dayton win k state loss again, after i see a few practices, i reserve the right to change these. but 7-3 going into the conference season would put us in position to do something this year. that said, i wont be surprised if it is 4-6 with the three games mentioned above swinging bad for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted August 20, 2003 Author Share Posted August 20, 2003 Hey, I'm not saying you have to project the record or the non-conference games right now; I was just saying you can't wait until January 1 (I miscalculated three months and 11 days from today -- my bad) or even December 1. By all means you may wait until after practice has started (and even after the exhibition games) to go on record. I have to wonder, though, just how much spectators can glean from practice (when the players are going against each other) other than individual abilities (and last year's team definitely demonstrated that the team is greater than the sum of the individual parts) and exhibitions. You're correct that it will be a while before we know how good (or bad) this year's team will be; however, we still have to project (but not just yet -- in November). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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