Road Struggles

[ILbillikenfan]

Hey, I have been trolling the forum for nearly four years now, and figured I'd post something after watching the UWM game. I was just looking at our past years in the Soderberg era and after a tally, realized that we are 8-26 (not including pre or post season games)on the road during Soderberg's term here. That is absolutely terrible. It feels like this year on the road is going to continue the same trend.

What is the overlaying problem?

[Taj79]

Lack of talent, pure and simple.

Now, before I get bashed for that one ... I think there is a lot of parity in today's world of college basketball. The talent is spread thin and every time so-and-so leaves the college ranks early for the pros or goes straight out of high school, that talent pool decreases again making parity all the more achievable. So there is a very fine line between teams nowadays then there used to be.

The Bills have had their share of talent, but not the kind that I would characterize as anything but average. And in my opinion, average talent protects the home fires most of the time and is competitive on the road, but just doesn't have enough in the tank to pull it all off.

We've had one person per year tops for most of the last ten years or so. Now, when that one person is of the caliber of Larry Legend, a guy who makes everyone around him all that much better, then it has a tendency to work. His play alone took guys like Baniak and Heinrich to a level their first year that they never achieved again. But after that, it was one-a-year guys that didn't have the talent or knack for improving those around them. Larry was indeed special.

Above average to superior teams have two or three guys who can go nuts on any given night .... we had that in Claggett/Highmark/Waldman/Dobbs and we also had it in Gray/Douglas/Bonner. Then when you added a guy like Hudson or Roder, the average parts didn't have to carry the team or do more than required and actually meshed better into a more substantial whole.

In another thread, Tonka says we have found out that this year's team can play for a half on the road. My answer would be that we've found out that youth will make winning on the road difficult because games are played in halves and if we continually win the first half, so what, it will be a chit in the loss column once again.

I've said it before, this team has promise. If ... and this is where reality and perception get muddled .. IF you believe that Liddell and Lisch are two guys taking us into the superior range, and Ian is already there, then happy days are not that far away.

Best thing about freshmen is they become sophomores.

[slufanskip]

Taj, I think you hit it right on, add to that the quality of officiating a team like SLU gets on the road and it is twice as hard.

If you look at basketball as a whole, most average or below average teams struggle on the road, it's not just the Bills

Official Billikens.com sponsor of H. Waldman

[TheGoat]

>It feels like this year on the road is going to continue the

>same trend.

After two games you can tell this already? Interesting.

[slu72]

I think in general most college teams, superior or not, struggle on the road. Yes the Dukes and KY's of the world will win most of their road games, but my guess would be when you look at their losses they would tend to be roadies. TajMahal'79 is right on when he says LOT(lack of talent) is the primary cause. Now this year's team appears to have talent but we're young, very young, and it's going to take those guys some getting used to travel, staying in hotels, studying on the road, practice in strange places, etc. Also, the pace of the schedule. This week's being a prime example. A home game on Monday a visit to the Emerald City of College hoops on Wednesday no practice Sunday and all mixed in with cramming for finals. Whew that's a lot for a senior to handle let alone a team dominated by Frosh and Sophs.

[billikendave]

i don't think this is a shocking statement by any means.

Hawaii & UM-W are good/solid teams but don't act as though they are powerhouses. Neither are ranked. While each may make the dance, neither are locks. If SLU can't beat them on the road, what makes you think that we can beat UNC, Oakland, & Old Miss on the road. Honestly, I think SLU is 1-2 in those games. I am not very optimistic that SLU is going to be a road warrior in conference play either.

The past couple years SLU's bad road record is due primarily to lack of talent. This year is because they are young. It has been said many time but I don't expect this to improve until perhaps next year & likely L&L's junior yr & polk & DB's senior year.

[billiken_roy]

i reserve judgement on that stat until you present it in comparision to other teams. for example, what is the road record of the rest of the a-10 for the same time period? or use the old cusa teams.

i have no idea how they compare, but my thoughts are that no one but maybe the more elite teams fair well on the road.

[billiken_roy]

it doesnt help that brad doesnt mess around with any ***** schedule either. year in and year out the billikens schedule is very tough.

[ILbillikenfan]

It may be a quick judgement, I understand that, it's just that our road games seemingly are not going to get any easier as the year goes on. When I get a few free minutes later this week I'll check the stat for a few marginal CUSA and A10 squads.

I agree the schedule has been tough every year, but maybe hard teams and losses aren't as beneficial as bad teams and wins.

[davidnark]

Brad may need to re-think his scheduling strategy. The first year we were really good (93-94), we started the season 14-0, and the toughest team on the schedule up to that point was SIU-C (which was a much weaker program at the time). Fourteen cupcakes at home may serve a young team better than going on the road to UNC, Hawaii, UWM, etc.

[cheeseman]

2 years ago we had this long discussion about how Brad had scheduled too soft and we were getting hammered in the RPI because of it. Seems odd now that we are discussing that he schedules too hard. The question I have is why was soft wrong then and hard wrong now?

[kshoe]

even the magical year we had with Spoon where we started 14-0 and ended up going 23-6 every game we lost was on the road. I don't remember Spoon and Romar being road warriors by any stretch.

As fans of the program you need to ask yourself do we want a schedule that looks like Mizzou this year and Syracuse every year with a bunch of home patsies and few real tests until conference play. There's no way we could ever play a UNC, Gonzaga, Iowa, Mississippi, SIUC, etc at home if we took that scheduling philosophy. Is the A-10 schedule enough to make fans want to buy tickets and to help our RPI. I don't think so.

Additionally, one of the main reasons we wanted to join the A-10 was that it was perceived to be a major conference and as a member you were able to get home and homes with other major conferences. Now we would just throw that option out?

Personally I think we are going to go 2-1 in the next three road games with the obvious loss being to UNC.

[billiken_roy]

i dont see any advantage to scheduling soft. at one time a few years ago, the committee didnt put near the weight on strength of schedule as they did won loss record, but now they have admitted that it is a huge factor.

plus, it seems that they also look at how a team finishes. a strong schedule tends to prepare a team for finishing down the stretch better.

last, if it comes down to winning the conference tourney, once again being prepared to play the better teams will only enhance a teams chances of pulling the conference tourney thing.

i say load it up. if it was up to me, we wouldnt play a single "buy" game. i would schedule the 4-5 big out of conference foes like iowa, gonzaga and unc and then the remaining games would always be with the area teams like missouri state, siu, semo, eastern illinois, western illinois, bradley etc.

[waterboy]

I for one have no problem with Brad's schedule. A young team will only get better by facing tough competition, especially on the road. We all should expect the Billikens to take some lumps this year, especially early. Our nucleus is freshmen and sophomores (Ian being the exception). By January/February, I expect to see some improvement in A-10 play. I will evaluate the team (coaching) at that time. When Claggett, Winfield and Highmark were freshmen, they were 5-23. Heck, they only won ten games as sophomores (minus Winfield).

I think that scheduling patsies gets you nowhere. You may make the NCAA (as SLU did in '94). However, once Joe Smith and Maryland came a calling....that was a reality check.

So...do we want to be a real program that can advance in the NCAAs or play patsies and maybe "slink into the NCAAs and get throttled" every once in a while?

[Taj79]

I like the last line of broy's post .... and would endorse that type of scheduling ... recognizing that a game a year might be needed to fill in where a vacancy might occur.

[cheeseman]

I have no problem with playing a balanced non-conf. schedule - some tough and some easy. We are not in a position talent wise - on this team and in the pipeline to run everyday with the big boys - even Duke and NC play a couple of gimmes. I have already talked about my thoughts regarding playing all the local Valley or Ohio Valley teams every year - they would fill up our non-conf schedule and we seldom if ever get to see a Gonzaga or Iowa or NC. The other point I would make is those teams do not travel well and illicit very little excitement locally for ticket sales. The crowds we have with those teams are not that great to warrant not playing high profile teams from around the country.

[slu72]

We've got to continue to schedule toughies like UNC, Zags, Iowa. First, the $$$$ are greater. Second, the perception w/ recruits is greater..."hey son we played Ark Little Rock last year and got Sam Houston State in the house when you'll be a soph!" vs "we played UNC at Chapel Hill last year and next year we get a chance to beat 'em in our house." Third, you always get better by playing up. I remember when I used to play tennis. Playing against someone better makes you better. Let these kids see what an elite program has. Hopefully, it encourages them. With the exception of XU and possibly Temple, no A-10 team can really be considered a perennial powerhouse lock to make the dance like the ACC or Big 10. We really don't have any UL's or UC's that will dominate year in year out. I'd take the chance of putting our invite possiblity's on doing well in Conference play and tournament and losing 3 or 4 non conference games against the bigs. If we could end up 21-8 or 20-7 every year after this year, we'd stand a good chance of making it every year. A really good chance if we knock one of those biggies off.

[cheeseman]

Waterboy - there has to be balance in your non-conf. schedule. Nobody is saying we should play a weak schedule but if you want to build a solid winning tradition which will get you into good recruit's doors, you can not keep showing up with a 500 record and a periodic NIT or NCAA trip every 3-5 years. This team has to be able to post a couple of 20 win seasons and make a run in the NIT or NCAA to get established - one way to do that is to play a balanced pre-conf schedule where you can come out of it 10-2 or 9-3. 6-6 and 5-7 won't do it. Remember, if you can end up 9-5 or 10-4 in your conference - and that is pretty good, it will be your non-conf. totals that will get you up close to that 20 win season - throw in a couple of conf. tourney wins and you are there. If we can do this for a couple of years in a row then we will be in a position to compete at a high level year in and year out.

[waterboy]

Cheeseman-

I have no problem with your post. My point was that I did not think this season's schedule was too "unbalanced." I do not want to go back to the Spoon years of scheduling, where SIUC is your best nonconference game. The RPI has made scheduling like that difficult to justify.

One question for you. Why didn't the program get rolling after Spoon appeared in the NCAAs twice in a row? Following your logic...it should have. I am assuming that the best answer would be Spoon's recruiting shortfalls. Just curious........

[Taj79]

Sitting around, twiddling my thumbs, waiting for our 9:00 p.m. tip off ... I had the time to look this up ..... its not exact but its close. Its from the Billiken History in the Media Guide and I will be the first to tell you things don't add up at time. And I doubled checked. So this is as close as I got ....

Spoon's seven seasons resulted in a 122 and 90 record. In that time, he was 86 and 25 at home; 21 and 50 on the road and 13 and 16 at neutral site games. I know ..like I said .. that adds up to 120 and 91 but I read and reread the book ... so I'm off a little. His best years were his second and third years ... or Clagg's Jr and Sr years. In that time, he went a whopping 30 and 1 at home. Added into a 9 and 8 record on the road. His other great year, the Year of Our Legend, he went 13 and 2 at home with a 7 and 4 record on the road. What does that mean? I think it supports what I've said all along... that an above average to great team almost always wins at home and breaks about even on the road ... or a little better. What is interesting to me is that in each of Spoon's seven seasons, not once did he drop BELOW at least 10 home wins. His worst was the year prior to Our year of the Legend when he went 10 and 10 and I'm counting the CUSA tourney in there as home games. So 16 of his 21 road wins came in three years .. the best coming with the Legend.

Romar went 51 and 44 in his three seasons with SLU. He was 33 and 12 a thome; a dismal 9 and 25 on the road; and a respectable 8 adn 9 at neutral court sites but four of those wins are the Miracle in Memphis. But he defend the home turf more times than not .... he won 13, 11 and 9 games in his three seasons at home.

Soderberg has never had the talent that Spoon had, and I'd say overall it is comparable to Romar's group. But BS has faced two relative rebuilding year sin his three years here. He got a late start in taking over in year one, and is recovering from last year's fiasco as well. So 8 adn 26 is right about where Romar was and is on pace to match Spoon's record if he lasts out seven seasons.

I think overallit proves that our talent level has been rancid to say the least lately. Sure, we get a guy or two, but the overall team makeup is overly weak. And as i said above, it takes superior talent to go out and win on the road night-in and night-out in college basketball today. The talent is extremely close.

[ILbillikenfan]

Thanks for pulling those numbers for the Romar and Spoon era's. It helps give a bit of perspective about our road weariness compared to the priors. Hopefully Soderberg can get that home record back to what it should be. We are off to a good start so far.

[kshoe]

while our road performance has sucked whats really been disapointing is our ability to win at home. Win at home and you guarantee yourself no worse than 8-8 in conference and if you steal 2 or 3 on the road well then you have quite a nice record.

Good analysis Taj.

[Basketbill]

I think it takes talent and a significant amount of confidence to win on the road. A team has to overcome the dismal officiating, bad plays etc......a young team will have trouble with that.

Moreover, a home schedule is generally bloated with four or five supcakes per year thus inflating the difference. I would think even we could beat Kennesaw State away....

Tonight I hope for a close game, better effort on Defense, and a realization for the players that hey we can play at this level.