MVC vs. A10 update

[Whatsasaluki]

PS- for readers who like to dredge up the past, that was then this is now.

CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS

1 ATLANTIC COAST = 84.93 84.80 ( 1) 11

2 BIG 12 = 81.55 81.41 ( 2) 12

3 MISSOURI VALLEY = 81.41 81.17 ( 3) 10

4 SOUTHEASTERN = 80.36 80.54 ( 5) 12

5 BIG TEN = 80.09 80.69 ( 4) 11

6 CONFERENCE USA = 79.20 78.74 ( 9) 14

7 BIG EAST = 79.12 79.56 ( 6) 12

8 MID-AMERICAN = 78.89 79.07 ( 7) 13

9 PACIFIC-10 = 78.44 78.98 ( 8) 10

10 HORIZON = 77.04 76.16 ( 11) 9

11 WEST COAST = 76.93 76.76 ( 10) 8

12 WESTERN ATHLETIC = 76.02 75.35 ( 14) 10

13 MOUNTAIN WEST = 75.95 75.62 ( 13) 8

14 SUN BELT = 75.55 75.67 ( 12) 11

15 COLONIAL = 74.65 74.65 ( 15) 10

16 ATLANTIC 10 = 73.49 73.48 ( 16) 12

[TheA_Bomb]

The only one dredging up the past is you. Get over it SLU is not going to the MVC. Maybe UMSL could move up to D1 and you guys could court them.

[billiken_roy]

congrats on one great season overall for the conference so far. now do it for the next 5 years and come back and talk to us then. I hope you have fun on your road trips to evansville and cedar rapids and peoria.

[slufanskip]

Lets check your confidence ... $100.00 on wether or not the MVC finishes in the top 8 conferences.

Official Billikens.com sponsor of H. Waldman

[billiken_roy]

be careful with that skip. in years past by jan 1, the conference strengths typically dont change much because they dont play each other anymore. i would guess they will indeed finish in the top 8 and the a-10 wont.

[billiken_roy]

you should move this string and the barton county string to the other board.

[p diddy]

I'm very impressed with what the MVC has done this year. They are doing an excellent job in the nonconference. Whatsasaluki, with what they've accomplished so far, i think it might be a disappointment if at least five valley teams don't make it to the big dance and at least two of them challenge for the final four. maybe not make it, but at least get to the sweet 16 or elite eight. i think some of those teams are that good.

It's been 23 years since a valley team has made it to a regional final. maybe, this could be the year it happens again.

i didn't realize the valley wanted slu so much. how else can you explain the hostility you have towards the billikens' program. i enjoy the games with the salukis. The series has been kind of back and forth. even in some of our worst years, we've had some big wins of Southern and vise versa. it's a nice regional rivalry that i hope continues for the next several years.

are you upset at SLU because despite the tremendous success the Southern Illinois program has enjoyed over the years, the salukis have a losing record against SLU in the last 10 meetings (4-6) and the last 20 meetings (9-11). Southwest Missouri state has their way with us all the time, but we've done pretty well against southern over the years. I believe we've split the last four meetings. There's a good chance that southern will give slu a whipping next week in carbondale, but that's okay. the chances are very good that the salukis will take a loss the next time they meet in st. Louis. the salukis have blown us out before, but the billikens usually come back and beat them on the next go round. that's been the nature of this little series. although we are not in the same conference, the have battled tooth and nail for years and that will continue.

for a program that has had as much success as SIU, you should not be having as much trouble beating a program that you think so lowly of. you guys should be pounding us year in and year out, but you can't and that must really stick in your craw.

don't get me wrong, i'd love to have southern's resume of NCAA's and conference titles any day of the week, but at the same time, it's kind of fun to read your silly little-boy rants about a program that your team has a losing record against.

you will be the heavy, heavy favorite on Dec. 21. My advice to your boys. do not lose that game.

bad boyz for life

[slufanskip]

I'll make the bet ...

Official Billikens.com sponsor of H. Waldman

[STLRedbird]

TheA_Bomb said:

<<"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because hard men stand ready to do violence on their behalf."- George Orwell>>

Grrrr. You do not understand irony do you? Orwell wrote about the thought police twisting words to serve a purpose. I defy you to find where Orwell wrote or said this. Prove me wrong....

Anyway, I agree. Time to leave it behind. My personal opinion is that SLU will regret it, but count a good measure of optimism into that thinking. Good luck, Billikens - and nice win tonight!

BTW, this is from CNNSI, cut from a commentary on the prospects for the remaining unbeaten teams (note the best victory):

<< Oral Roberts (5-0)

Best win so far: at Saint Louis

Put up or shut up time: Dec. 20 vs. Georgetown (Rainbow Classic)

Super sophs Caleb Green and Ken Tutt have Scott Sutton's Golden Eagles rolling. This dangerous mid-major is fast becoming what intracity rival Tulsa used to be.

>>

[STLRedbird]

I'll take the bet.

Particulars - Conference rank as determined by Sagarin (as quoted at the top of the tread). Date to resolve - you pick.

[slufanskip]

Doesn't the RPI rank conferences? Date to decide is at the end of conference tourneys before the NCAA and NIT tourneys ... or we can go until the end of the NCAA tourney ... I don't care.

Sagarin rankings are a joke ... especially early in the season.

Official Billikens.com sponsor of H. Waldman

[kwyjibo]

>it might be a disappointment if at least five valley teams

>don't make it to the big dance and at least two of them

>challenge for the final four.

This is a joke right? The MVC has done really well this year but lets not get carried away with hyperbole.

First off, I will say for the millionth time that tournament selection is based on INDIVIDUAL team profiles (not conference). Second, the Sagarin ratings play NO role in selection and the MVC's success posted above is an artifact of a paticular (largely irrelevant except to gamblers) method of ranking of teams. Third, if the tournament selection were today the MVC would get only 2 at large berths. That can and will change dramatically (for the better or worse) but unless you also accept that they could get 1 bid (an equally unlikely event) it is not useful to talk about 5 bids now.

Basically, the MVC has always been a decent conference that decided to upgrade their scheduling a tad (still pretty low though). The MVC does win games which count for something--just a lot more in the Sagarin than in the RPI (which factors heavily the SOS).

[kwyjibo]

Skip, do not take the bet using the Sagarin. I think that it is highly likely that the MVC does end up in the top 8 there.

They also might end up in the top 8 conferences in RPI as well (currently they are in 7th and while the C-USA might overtake them I think at least 8th is likely).

The reason why the MVC does better in Sagarin than in RPI is that the MVC are winning games but against weaker teams generally. Unlike most of the major conferences, the MVC plays a lot of true road games which they are also winning their fair share of. RPI accounts for SOS much more than Sagarin and Sagarin accounts for home court advantage (a two point road loss in Sagarin is actually counted as a win). Also, because Sagarin accounts for margin of victory it is structurally biased against defense somewhat

I think they both have strengths and weaknesses (predictively, Sagarin's ELO rankings are the best). Long story short, I would use Sagarin to compare two teams--but be wary about the bias. I would not use RPI to compare two teams until at least February but I think it would be better at ranking conferences at the end of the year.

[kshoe]

those guys would love to play a tough non conference schedule but rightfully so aren't willing to be buy games or even 2 for 1s. The BCS conferences are afraid to play them in home and homes and thus it is nearly impossible for them to schedule the good teams that will benefit the RPI.

In my opinion the biggest attraction to the A-10 is the ability to schedule home and homes with the BCS conferences. Any given non-conference Saturday you'll see the A-10 playing 3-4 Big East teams, 1-2 ACC teams and a CUSA team or so. You can almost count on one hand how many games the Valley teams play against the big conferences all year. Its not the Valley's fault, thats just the way it is.

[Taj79]

.... in New York City, Washington, Cincinnati, Philly,Richmond, Charlotte and Pittsburgh as opposed to Carbondale, Peoria, Omaha, Evansville, Cedar Rapids and Wichita. I owuld think playing in those places might open us up to recruits that are better players, want to get a away form home, but have a chacne to come back every year and play in front of the home fans. Every conference will have some good runs and some bad runs.

Maybe with apoor record this year, we slide in under the radar for now. And I know the X fans are bad-mouthing us right now ... but they know from old Midwestern City days all about us. Frankly, I perceive the Valley to be regional and I don't think we want to be there. Plus, we are not a good fit philosophically with the other schools as much as we are with the A10.

[kwyjibo]

Worse conferences schedule better than the MVC. The MVC generally decides to take a harder line; that is a choice (a choice I agree with somewhat but they still play their share of cupcakes independent of the their difficulties scheduling). I agree of course the main problem is that big conferences won't play many teams on the road. I would favor an NCAA rule that says at least 3 true road non-conference games have to played each year.

The A-10 has played a fereocious non-conference schedule for years, this year they are struggling to stay above water against it.

[3star_recruit]

I understand why an MVC team would have problems scheduling a top 20 team home and home when a Illinois or a Michigan St. can get a comparable team to accept a 2 for 1. But you'd think that a regional 2nd tier power like Ohio State or Oklahoma would be receptive to a home and home.

[STLRedbird]

I hate to come on here and flame, but there is just sooooo much mis-information in kwyjibo's post. Where to begin. I'll start with the most glaring item -

Quote from kwyjibo:

<>

What nonsense. Look two columns over and Sagarin has a rating he calls his Predictor. I'll let you guess as to its purpose. ELO CHESS is is backward-looking rating and his main rating is a mixture of the two - which pretty much debunks another statement -

Quote from kwyjibo:

<>

Won't take my word for it? Here's a link to where Sagarin himself explains this stuff:

http://espn.go.com/ncb/s/bracket/banter/030227.html

[STLRedbird]

Done. RPI it is. $100 says that the Missouri Valley will finish as the #8 or higher conference. I suggest Ken Pomroy's RPI as the official source. www.kenpom.com I'm not trying anything sneaky or underhanded here - I think he's just easiet free source of conference RPIs. In case of a dispute I'll accept the judgement of the moderator of this board - should he be interested in getting involved.

[kwyjibo]

All you are doing is confusing things and taking things out of context. If there was "soooo" much misinformation why do you focus on trivial and tangential remarks of mine? I at least was trying to be helpful and objective. It would take time and patience to explain the nuances of what is and what is not at stake with the various ranking methods and I have better things to do.

The MVC is a good conference. They should be happy their success. They also tend to play easy scheudles (not all their fault, but not completely out of their control either) which is a factor in the RPI and why they will suffer in tournament selection. Is this fair? Probably not and I have thoughts on a fairer system if you are truly interested. Are MVC "better" than the RPI says they are? My answer would generally be yes (and historically the greatest committee screw jobs have happened to MVC teams).

Does that mean Sagarin is "all-knowing" and that the MVC's shortlived success in his ratings mean everything? No. More importantly, while I would grant superior predictive capacity to ratings that use margin of victory they have no business being used by any NCAA selection committee purely on sportsmanship grounds (there is also bias toward offense which is unfair).

[TheA_Bomb]

Redbird your right I could never understand irony, I'm just a stupid artillerymen, but I do make sure I get plenty of it in my diet.

However, since you defied me to find the source here you go:

from: http://www.netcharles.com/orwell/ctc/docs/faq.htm#RoughMen

Rough Men

"Did George Orwell ever say: "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf?" Or: "We sleep safely at night because rough men stand ready to visit violence on those who would harm us?"

Not exactly. But he did make comments that were along similar lines. In his essay on Rudyard Kipling (1942), Orwell wrote: "[Kipling] sees clearly that men can only be highly civilized while other men, inevitably less civilised, are there to guard and feed them." (Thanks to Keith Ammann for this). And in his 'Notes on Nationalism' (1945) he wrote: "Those who "abjure" violence can only do so because others are committing violence on their behalf." (Thanks to Parbety). Where the rough men crept in is anyone's guess."

Well that is pretty damn close and he not only wrote it once but twice.

I don't know if this may come as a shock to you or not but some of us who don't like the thought police support the military.

[slufanskip]

That is where I usually go to check ... I'm good with that. After the tourney good? Your call.

Now ... how do I know where to find you to collect. Every one knows where to find me.

Official Billikens.com sponsor of H. Waldman

[STLRedbird]

I just sent you an email with my contact info, but just for the record - I'm not one to welsh on this sort of thing. :-) I'm sure you're not either - I don't mean to imply that...

But, enough valley talk. This is the Billiken board and I respect that.

[SluSignGuy]

I personally would not like to have this responsibility. From the way it sounds, it will be settled between you two. However, just clarifing I do not wish to be involved.

However, if I had to guess from right now...STLRedbird will win (no offense skip, just the raw numbers look favorably to MVC)

Steve

[Sheltiedave]

Taj, your logic is very sound, especially if you can remove Carbondale and Peoria from the Valley side of the ledger. If you look at the top ten DI players over the last ten years on an annual basis, Peoria is on the list every year, and Carbondale has a few good players. There has been a quantum shift in talent generation in Illinois. Chicago players are getting the name, but Peoria players have the college game.