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Aub over The Bills by 7

The Wiz

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30 minutes ago, slu72 said:

There are 3 ways this game goes: 

1) we lose in a close one

2) we win in a close one 

3) we get blown out

We ain’t blowing them out. 
So says Captain Obvious

Stranger things have happened than us not missing a three ball and blowing them out of the building............

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37 minutes ago, Schasz said:

Yep, had the game in our grasp. Hit the FT's and we win this game. It was a defensive struggle that came down to the foul line.

You cannot boil down a game to just the FTs but this was the major issue in this game, and it was a problem during the whole game. I agree that with the usual level of free throw hits we win the game.

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Checked the box score for the game. There are a few areas that Auburn dominated, they had 11 blocks to 2 blocks for us. Most other stats were close for both teams, we did have a few more assists. The issue that sank the ship was the FTs. They had 14/22 FG/FGA (63.6% for the game). We had 4/14 FG/FGA (28.6% for  the game, the problem was in the 2nd half). We could not get over this issue with the poor FT results. This was the main reason I see to have lost the game.

I noticed that the Auburn fans made an incredible amount of noise when the ball was in our hands. It might be worthwhile to conduct our practices with a similar background noise level to acclimate the team of playing with high level of noise.

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A heartbreaker because this was ours to win. While many will blame FT shooting (and it was definitely a problem) the real issue was the shooting in general was poor. Of course, Auburn had poor shooting too but that is was what they do. ...41/19/64...if they hit 1 more 3 they make their average slash.  

So let's see what happened? Bolded phrases are from my original post.

Shooting...we have to make some shots ...Bills shot a dismal....38.5/ 28.6/ 28.6....I use decimals on this slash to show an unusual and sad stat.........3P%= FT%....Let's forget about the target slash for a moment and look at the average Bills slash...48/36/81...if we use that for this game here is what it looks like...

Twos....4 more (bunnies and layups)= 8pts

Threes...2 more...6pts

FTs.........8 more in the 2nd half...8pts

A total of 22 pts we left on the table.  Well that was an average Bills slash...against the Auburn D you might not make the average slash...If we make any category in the slash , we win.  And it is unlikely that Aub defended from the FT line...which is why the FT line(defense)  on every report card is blank. Well, let's say we couldn't even win 1 category from the slash.  Mix and match a little better on any of  2 or 3 categories and we win. The point is we let it slip away.

Magic number is 72...if we score 72 or above ...good chance to win ...An off shoot of the above....and again mix and match.

Rebs ...win the reb battle ...We did ...42-41...this was good

TOs 11... We had 12 ...this too was good, not just because we were close but because they too had 12.  Not to mention we had 12pts off TOs , they had 8. ...so this worked out well.

Hold their top 3 guys to under 30 pts combined.....This almost worked out as Broome and Williams had 11 and 9pts. But we let Green slip away with 22pts, double his average.

Opp PPG...this number has to come down ...it did but we didn't take advantage

Bottom line... Auburn's poor offense tried to give us the game and we refused to take it. You make the mistakes or learn to take the pressure of the upper level teams in Nov so you can play better in March. We finish the toughest part of our schedule (the last 4 games)....2-2 which is what the computer predicted.  Painful now but good if we learn from it. This game was more of a battle than the Md game and Aub is the better team and we almost beat them at their place. We have learned and grown.



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Every system or model out there has internal consistency and methodology, whatever they may be, that they adhere to. Some models are better, some are worse, but most of them are good enough to stay in business and attract followers. It really does not matter whose ranking system you (plural) follow as long as you (plural) follow a single system and not go shopping around to see who gives us the highest ranking at any point in time.


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