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What WNeed 2 Do 2 Win.

For those that follow me, this is a familiar sight. It is at the bottom of every spread thread, I write.  It refers to the specifics of that particular game and what we have to do to win it....FG% , Rebs, TOs etc...Make those numbers and we will win 95% of the time.. In fact not only will we win,  but we will make the spread.

This thread though is not about a specific game. This thread is about the season.  What do we need to do to win the season?

What will it take to win the conference? What will it take to get a bid?  What do we need to reach those goals?  We need consistency. We have a team that came within 2 seconds of beating the 4th rated team ITN. That says to me, we are not lacking in anything except consistency.  We have had in specific games... over 50 rebs ...less than 10 TOs...last night we shot 56% from the arc....we have shot over 50% FG% a few times...96% FTs (25-26) etc.  I could continue to list stats to the bottom of the page as to why we are a good team.  Unfortunately. we have also reb under 30 in a game,... TOs of 19.....FG% of  under 40% ...3P% in the low 20s. Needless to say , the first set of numbers are all A+....the 2nd set are all F-.  That is quite a spread. What is the issue?...consistency.

Bill James, the father of Sabremetrics (the mathematical and statistical analysis of sports teams) said that the difference between championship teams and teams that finish out of the money is that the winning teams are 5% better than the losing teams. So does that mean they win 5% more games than the others. No, it means they are 5% better every game and therefore have the possibility of beating every team they play  every game. The Bills don't need to play at a superhuman level. They don't need to shoot 56% from the arc every game.  They need to shoot Bills numbers ...good numbers that they can do all the time....50/38/ 77. ...Rebs around 40...TOs 11. And they need to do all things all games.  This is not a basketball smorgasbord where you can pick and choose.   You need to to do all things well(not perfect) all the time...with little variance. 

This Sat  we will play Fordham...not the greatest in the conference. We will have a double digit spread in our favor.  We can win by doing less because Fordham is less of a team...BUT that doesn't mean we should.   We need to make our numbers regardless of the opponent. If we make our numbers we will win 95% of the games.. We will beat  the good teams (good for the selection committee) and run the score up on the bad teams,  which for the NET followers, is a good thing  for our NET efficiency rating.

One last thing...How do you develop consistency?  Focus...play basketball for a full 40 min, leave nothing on the table...Confidence...You can play basketball at a high level all the time...and Teamwork...where the sum of the parts is greater than the whole.

 

 

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8 hours ago, The Wiz said:

What WNeed 2 Do 2 Win.

For those that follow me, this is a familiar sight. It is at the bottom of every spread thread, I write.  It refers to the specifics of that particular game and what we have to do to win it....FG% , Rebs, TOs etc...Make those numbers and we will win 95% of the time.. In fact not only will we win,  but we will make the spread.

This thread though is not about a specific game. This thread is about the season.  What do we need to do to win the season?

What will it take to win the conference? What will it take to get a bid?  What do we need to reach those goals?  We need consistency. We have a team that came within 2 seconds of beating the 4th rated team ITN. That says to me, we are not lacking in anything except consistency.  We have had in specific games... over 50 rebs ...less than 10 TOs...last night we shot 56% from the arc....we have shot over 50% FG% a few times...96% FTs (25-26) etc.  I could continue to list stats to the bottom of the page as to why we are a good team.  Unfortunately. we have also reb under 30 in a game,... TOs of 19.....FG% of  under 40% ...3P% in the low 20s. Needless to say , the first set of numbers are all A+....the 2nd set are all F-.  That is quite a spread. What is the issue?...consistency.

Bill James, the father of Sabremetrics (the mathematical and statistical analysis of sports teams) said that the difference between championship teams and teams that finish out of the money is that the winning teams are 5% better than the losing teams. So does that mean they win 5% more games than the others. No, it means they are 5% better every game and therefore have the possibility of beating every team they play  every game. The Bills don't need to play at a superhuman level. They don't need to shoot 56% from the arc every game.  They need to shoot Bills numbers ...good numbers that they can do all the time....50/38/ 77. ...Rebs around 40...TOs 11. And they need to do all things all games.  This is not a basketball smorgasbord where you can pick and choose.   You need to to do all things well(not perfect) all the time...with little variance. 

This Sat  we will play Ford...not the greatest in the conference. We will have a double digit spread in our favor.  We can win by doing less because Fordham is less of a team...BUT that doesn't mean we should.   We need to make our numbers regardless of the opponent. If we make our numbers we will win 95% of the games.. We will beat  the good teams (good for the selection committee) and run the score up on the bad teams,  which for the NET followers, is a good thing  for our NET efficiency rating.

One last thing...How do you develop consistency?  Focus...play basketball for a full 40 min, leave nothing on the table...Confidence...You can play basketball at a high level all the time...and Teamwork...where the sum of the parts is greater than the whole.

Thanks as always for a great explanation The Wiz; consistency is what we need.  Make your numbers Billikens!

 

 

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Thank for the analysis wiz.  I agree if the team gets consistent on what they are supposed to do they will position themselves for a chance to win the A10.

A trend that I see with SLU is losing composure in a hostile environment road game.  Examples are Memphis, Dayton and Boise State.  SLU was down big at Boise State and clawed there way back to win. Yuri was in foul trouble that game but Jones showed up that game and played well.

Another trend is Jones is not contributing.  Jones is in a shooting slump and is reluctant to shoot.  Jones needs to shoot his way out of slump and not worry this is his final season of college basketball.  Watching Jones in pre-game warm-ups he was struggling however in the last 2 pre-game warm-ups he looks much better.

Another trend is with the coach not resting his players enough during games. Five worn out players could not hold the lead with 8 minutes left against Auburn they are just too good.

I still believe SLU will win 22 games and will make a good run in the A10 tournament.  I believe there is no chance for an at large bid.

billiken_roy and The Wiz like this
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11 minutes ago, CBFan said:

Another trend is with the coach not resting his players enough during games. Five worn out players could not hold the lead with 8 minutes left against Auburn they are just too good.

ford is the one responsible for creating the divide in talent level between our top 5 and the rest.   at the beginning of the year it sure seemed the team was deep.   i think it was.   however by going to his short rotation, the players lose confidence.   they quit believing they deserve to be on the floor.   next thing you know they are pressing when they get in the game and then to coach just doesnt play them.   

there is no better example than williams.   it is no freak example that all at once he isnt good.   granted this is a slightly higher level than where he played before, but i would bet the farm that he has just lost confidence in himself.   and sure enough when he does get the rare chance, he presses and then he makes mistakes, misses a couple of shots and then is yanked (BAB favorite term).   so he continues to regress.  

sure there are examples of players that respond to this hard love and pressure, and then go on to be stars when they fix or adjust their game.  currently i think we can all agree hargrove fits this model.  however, imo  most times they fall into self fulfilling expectation and fade away.  

so we are going to have to live with this.  it is obvious after fords stay thus far, this is his method and it isnt going to change.   it bothers me because i believe we have real talent buried on the bench.   the athleticism of traore and strickland would be perfect to help speed up the games.   jones is a proven successful point guard that could easily be giving us sufficient minutes to rest yuri.   

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@AnkielBreakers ---- I do not think your statement is that far-fetched.  The schedule is extremely favorable for doing as you say.  At first blush, defend the hoem fires.  In there, we have the Bonnies and Dayton.  I think, having sat five rows off the court Tuesday, we can and will wipe the Chaifetz floor with Dayton's ass come rematch time.  Dayton's young team lived off the energy their home floor provided.  That won't be there in February.  The Bonnie game will likely be a war but is very winnable.  So that takes us on the road, where we still have unanswered questions.

Games at Umass, at Duquesne, at Mason and at La Salle will be tell tale signs says Captain Obvious.  We will or should be favored in each.  All four are teams lack substantially in talent versus our lineup.  The question is will it happen?  Three of the four are extremely undisciplined with the exception being Mason.  Three of the four, with the exception of Mason, have a nice stable of guards to run at Collins.  Those four games stand in the way of a really successful season right now.

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4 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

ford is the one responsible for creating the divide in talent level between our top 5 and the rest.   at the beginning of the year it sure seemed the team was deep.   i think it was.   however by going to his short rotation, the players lose confidence.   they quit believing they deserve to be on the floor.   next thing you know they are pressing when they get in the game and then to coach just doesnt play them.   

there is no better example than williams.   it is no freak example that all at once he isnt good.   granted this is a slightly higher level than where he played before, but i would bet the farm that he has just lost confidence in himself.   and sure enough when he does get the rare chance, he presses and then he makes mistakes, misses a couple of shots and then is yanked (BAB favorite term).   so he continues to regress.  

sure there are examples of players that respond to this hard love and pressure, and then go on to be stars when they fix or adjust their game.  currently i think we can all agree hargrove fits this model.  however, imo  most times they fall into self fulfilling expectation and fade away.  

so we are going to have to live with this.  it is obvious after fords stay thus far, this is his method and it isnt going to change.   it bothers me because i believe we have real talent buried on the bench.   the athleticism of traore and strickland would be perfect to help speed up the games.   jones is a proven successful point guard that could easily be giving us sufficient minutes to rest yuri.   

For some reason I only get 1 reaction per day so I will say good post and I completely agree.

Seniors like Williams and Jones should never play uptight because they have had reasonable success playing division 1 basketball.  Jones has over 500 assists in his career.  Both have made a lot of 3 pointers in their careers.

I am happy to see Hargrove never gave up on his shot and it paid off against Dayton and he should take that forward to the next games.

I am good with Okoro playing the most minutes at the 5 position.  His offensive skill is improving to go along with 7.4 rebounds per game, 25 blocks, and 11 steals.  With Linssen it will be hard to get Traore in the game.  Since Okoro has done a decent job of staying out of foul trouble and Linssen eventually coming back means less time for Traore on the floor.

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