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The Bills over EIU by 24


The Wiz
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Great game against Har-Sto...impressive numbers  even against a non D1 team. For more info on why this was a historic game see the Har-sto game review thread.
 
On to EIU.  Or as Yogi Berra use to say...It's Deja Vu, all over again. The reason it is a Deja Vu is this will be a copy of the 1st game (C Ark.)...EIU is an F team like C Ark and Northwestern is a B+ team like we are.  So essentially another matchup of B+ (us)  vs  F  (EIU).   Coincidentally, Northwestern won that game by 24....the same as forecasted for this game. I say coincidentally, because I use  a lot more metrics than just game spreads but in this game the numbers came together.
 
 
Before we look at the report card, just a couple of notes.  I was able to integrate the Har-Sto stats into the data so we will probably be on the Offensive Honor Roll for the next few games (hopefully longer than that). These stats will not figure into any forecasts or the overall team grade when figuring forecasts.  The reason I was able to add the data was because the Har -Sto game was a "real" game unlike Rockhurst and Lindenwood which were exhibitions.
So let's see what Super "O" Bills look like
 
..........................SLU...............................EIU...............................SLU.......................................EIU

..........................................OFF..........................................................................DEF...............

PPG......................A+.............................F+.................................B...........................................D-

FG%......................A...............................D-..................................B.........................................C+

3Pt%.....................A...............................C-..................................D+.......................................D+

FT%......................B-........ ......................B..............................................................................

Reb......................B+...............................C+................................A.........................................D

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....N/A this game

Down...N/A

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

Assts...Collins...2nd 

Stls......Collins....68th

FG%...Linssen...91st   80%

Double-Double....Collins...1st....about 50 players  tied 

EIU

Blks....Hamlin ....7th

 

While our Offensive grades  look great...the most impressive stat so far is the B- on FTs   We have been F- for years

What We Need TO Do TO Win (in the future referred to as WWN2D2W)....Show up.....Seriously  though, there are a few cautions....Hamlin...this is a 6-10 235 lb long armed fly swatter.  Don't try to shoot over this guy...time to get the brooms out in practice.  .....The report card overall looks pretty good  but one area that continues to dog us is 3Pt Def.  EIU is not a great shooting 3P team but if we leave them alone they will start making shots. Good time to work on that arc defense.  It seems EIU doesn't like to play 3Pt D either.  So this could be a game of a lot of 3pt shots....a battle we should win A to C-.

Bottom line....If we play like we did in the first 4 games...we win...We need to build on the games we have played and keep this train moving toward Memphis.

 

 

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I think the most important thing we have to do now is to integrate the offensive capabilities of Strickland, Williams, Traore, and Jones into our regular playing style. Jones has a lot more to offer than being just a replacement ball handler, Williams accuracy with the 3 point shots, Traores ability to move and play inside the arc effectively (which will grow), and Strickland's enormous aggressive instincts and ability for the fast break score should become part of our regular play.

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One thing I forgot to put in the original post of this thread was our probability of making The Dance.  In my preseason forecast , I mentioned we were B+ (the transition grade)  and that we had a 54% chance to get a bid.  We are still at B+ but are chances have improved to 62%...Not a lock by any means  but at this point in the season , I will take it.

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5 hours ago, The Wiz said:
Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

Assts...Collins...2nd 

Stls......Collins....68th

FG%...Linssen...91st   80%

Double-Double....Collins...1st....about 50 players  tied 

P....N/A this game

Down...N/A

EIU

Blks....Hamlin ....7th

Cool part about this is our guys are doing it (likely) on significantly less minutes than the guys on the list around them, and with twice as large of a sample size. The guys Yuri is competing against have only played one game, and with more floor time to get to their respective marks. @The Wiz please keep up with the progress in that ITN area throughout the season 

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24 minutes ago, Bills By 40 said:

Cool part about this is our guys are doing it (likely) on significantly less minutes than the guys on the list around them, and with twice as large of a sample size. The guys Yuri is competing against have only played one game, and with more floor time to get to their respective marks. @The Wiz please keep up with the progress in that ITN area throughout the season 

I have been doing it the last few years in the report card section of the spread threads....I will keep doing it as long as we have qualifiers in the Top 100 ITN.

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From Team Rankings the Vegas implied line for EIU game is 21 pts in favor of SLU. If we manage to win this one by 30 or 40 pts we are likely to go up in the overall rankings, hopefully becoming a top 50 team. We may win against Memphis, a lot will depend, from a pregame probability point of view, in how much over the Vegas line we win tonight, and how how much over or below the Vegas line Memphis wins in their game against NC Central tomorrow.

The two prior D1 adversaries against SLU and Memphis, EIU is ranked 339, and NC Central at were comparable, in ranking at least. Regarding these two initial games against D1 opponents, SLU won the game against CA 13 pts above the Vegas line, Memphis won their game against TN Tech 8 pts below the Vegas line. A repeat of their prior margin of winning above or below the Vegas line for both SLU and Memphis against EIU and NC Central may be significant in terms of the probability of SLU winning vs Memphis.

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51 minutes ago, Old guy said:

From Team Rankings the Vegas implied line for EIU game is 21 pts in favor of SLU. If we manage to win this one by 30 or 40 pts we are likely to go up in the overall rankings, hopefully becoming a top 50 team. We may win against Memphis, a lot will depend, from a pregame probability point of view, in how much over the Vegas line we win tonight, and how how much over or below the Vegas line Memphis wins in their game against NC Central tomorrow.

The two prior D1 adversaries against SLU and Memphis, EIU is ranked 339, and NC Central at were comparable, in ranking at least. Regarding these two initial games against D1 opponents, SLU won the game against CA 13 pts above the Vegas line, Memphis won their game against TN Tech 8 pts below the Vegas line. A repeat of their prior margin of winning above or below the Vegas line for both SLU and Memphis against EIU and NC Central may be significant in terms of the probability of SLU winning vs Memphis.

I'd actually prefer us to be large underdogs. We perform better that way, always have

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Just now, Bills By 40 said:

I'd actually prefer us to be large underdogs. We perform better that way, always have

We are........OG is the only one who believes point spreads and winning margins against completely different bad teams can be distilled into anything meaningful this early in the season.......he forgot to point out that Travis got a flat while driving through Memphis in 2008......so that makes us a double underdog....

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19 minutes ago, Billiken Rich said:

We are........OG is the only one who believes point spreads and winning margins against completely different bad teams can be distilled into anything meaningful this early in the season.......he forgot to point out that Travis got a flat while driving through Memphis in 2008......so that makes us a double underdog....

Well I'm aware but my point stands. Easier to impress when expectations are minimal. 

 

"The only time it's bad to set the bar low is in limbo."

- Bills by 40 

-- Socrates

--- Jesus Christ

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58 minutes ago, Billiken Rich said:

We are........OG is the only one who believes point spreads and winning margins against completely different bad teams can be distilled into anything meaningful this early in the season.......he forgot to point out that Travis got a flat while driving through Memphis in 2008......so that makes us a double underdog....

Of course having a flat in Memphis in 2008 is absolutely meaningless. However, you have a limited way of thinking about probabilities. Take sports betting, large numbers of people place bets, and large numbers of odds makers make offers. Of course making or losing money depends on being right. The Vegas line for every game is a compilation of the bets placed upon a particular game, it represents what money has been placed in and at what odds. Betting is never simple and you can make bets that team X will win or lose above or below a certain margin. The key issue here is that in order to make money you have to be right. This is particularly important for the odds makers. If they underestimate or overestimate a team they will suffer a relative loss (relative meaning that they could have made more money if they were correct).

That said, the odds makers underestimated SLU score and over estimated CA's score for their game. Regarding the Memphis vs TN Tech they overestimated Memphis score and underestimated TN Tech score. Things happen  and one faulty estimate does not create a trend. However if in the next set of game outcomes, SLU goes over the Vegas line and Memphis goes below it once more, you have the beginnings of a pattern. This means the odds makers were wrong the same way twice in a row. Can it happen a third time? sure it can. It all depends on how the odds makers are reaching their decisions, their methods may be hard to change.

If you find a flaw  somewhere in a series of event predictions, regardless of the method used to make the prediction, you can exploit this flaw for your own gain.

If this is too hard for you to understand you should not bet at sports events, I do not bet on sports. However, I have used probability estimates professionally for many years, and still use them frequently in many different ways.

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1 hour ago, Billiken Rich said:

I'm just saying, without taking 6000 words that that's pretty freaking thin.......

First of all there are not 6000 words in my prior post. Second you have no concept that probability like everything else, can be applied at different levels. For example, what I wrote above takes no account of the teams or their stats. This is what the odds makers are doing among many other things. My comment does not care about what they are doing or how they are doing it. What my comment cares about is whether or  not the odd makers are correct, and how consistently incorrect they are in their determinations.

The odd makers and bettors may be working at the  individual team and stats level and that is entirely fine with me. What I am describing is at a level above stats and teams. This is a valid application of probability theory. You appear to  have no concept of how many levels of probability you can work with.

Take the market for example, just like there are infinite numbers of time intervals that can be used profitably, there are levels beyond the time intervals or chart patterns that can also be used. Unless you understand this concept of levels you are a babe lost in the woods in terms of sports betting or market investments. Since you got this information free of charge, you might as well try to think about this and perhaps use it for your own benefit. After all, having a fixed, self exclusive, microscopic view of how things work is not a good thing.

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1 hour ago, Old guy said:

First of all there are not 6000 words in my prior post. Second you have no concept that probability like everything else, can be applied at different levels. For example, what I wrote above takes no account of the teams or their stats. This is what the odds makers are doing among many other things. My comment does not care about what they are doing or how they are doing it. What my comment cares about is whether or  not the odd makers are correct, and how consistently incorrect they are in their determinations.

The odd makers and bettors may be working at the  individual team and stats level and that is entirely fine with me. What I am describing is at a level above stats and teams. This is a valid application of probability theory. You appear to  have no concept of how many levels of probability you can work with.

Take the market for example, just like there are infinite numbers of time intervals that can be used profitably, there are levels beyond the time intervals or chart patterns that can also be used. Unless you understand this concept of levels you are a babe lost in the woods in terms of sports betting or market investments. Since you got this information free of charge, you might as well try to think about this and perhaps use it for your own benefit. After all, having a fixed, self exclusive, microscopic view of how things work is not a good thing.

Old Guy....to speak relative to statistics what is being said is simple.  In a competitive game, the factors that determine success against the spread are overwhelmingly competitive factors directly related to how "good" a team is.  Of course a certain amount of randomness is always present.

In blowouts, the score is determined much more by other factors relating to how a team responds to having an insurmountable lead.  Do they slow the pace down?  Empty the bench early? Do they work their offense through their 3rd or 4th of 5th options?  Do they put in a random zone defense just to practice it?  SLU shot extremely well on Wednesday.  The solid shooting (especially from distance) is a good indicator of our ability to shoot.  Some of the run-outs/fast breaks and other easier baskets that were a decision to push the tempo may be less meaningful (a different team in the same situation may decide to slow the pace and play half court because that is their goal for the game).  Every game SLU plays is played to win.  On Wednesday, SLU knew they would achieve that goal before the opening tip.  The secondary and tertiary goals and gameplanning become bigger factors and it appears to be something you are missing.

The mental model you are creating via your application of "probability theory" sounds like it is missing many of these factors.  You may want to isolate some of those things, but even the game planning varies going into the game when a game is not anticipated to be competitive. 

The only thing I cannot tell from your post is what you mean by "level".  I am guessing you are not speaking of a more robust probability model that evaluates more factors, but instead are talking about the precision and breakdown of measurements which is segmenting the basic factors typically measured (factor recognizing short time intervals; breakdown shooting percentage based on multiple types of shots; etc) and not looking at the additional external factors present.  The market example you used is flawed because in the market you always want to make as much money as possible and the desire to make more money is essentially unlimited (law of diminishing returns barely applies).  SLU is not looking to win the game by as many points as possible....if they were, then Yuri would have played 36+ minutes.

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Good post SLU_Lax. All of the factors you mention are related to the performance and reactions of the team (any team) under a variety of circumstances. These are all valid factors. They have central importance to what the coaches and evaluators of the team's performance do, and how they win games. This is a complex way of looking at the team itself and what it can do in multiple circumstances. This, from my point of view, is what the evaluators (in my example, the odds makers) evaluate when they make their decisions as to specific win/loss level for specific games. This is not an easy evaluation to make, not the large numbers of individual factors  involved, therefore the techniques used by the odds makers are prone to errors. They have to assign values to factors they do not quite understand and which may be unique to specific teams, they have to keep their own biases out of the equation. However, these evaluations may include fudge facotrs (shortcuts) like "luck" or length of winning streaks. Anything goes in this type of business as far as the odds makers are concerned. So, their methods can be wrong and can be wrong repeatedly.

To make matters worse for them, odds makers have to deal with calculation of odds for specific games for every game being played, and have to do so in a very short time interval. Every odds maker is different from all others to some degree, so instead of calling them odds makers lets call them the "Vegas inspired line" which is a composite value of the existing bets at a given time. Of course the "Vegas implied line" includes all the errors introduced by all the odds makers and all the bettors. What I call the second level is developing an idea of fundamental errors in the "Vegas inspired line value." Since I do not bet sports, I do not know this for sure, but I assume that if you know the Vegas inspired line is consistently underestimating the performance of a team or overestimating the performance of another team, you can tailor a bet with a high probability of winning without going through all of the analysis you describe. Of course none of these conditions are forever and you (the bettor) have to make sure "Vegas line inspired results" are likely to continue being erroneous prior to your bet.

Now to the market which is a lot closer to what I do than betting sports. I entirely disagree with you that in the market it is always desired to make as much money as possible in an unlimited manner. This is just not true, many of the truly large investment institutions have different goals for their money. They may be seeking high security over gain. They may prefer investments that will not pay for X  number of years to profits now, but they want to develop a fair degree of certainty in advance that the payoff will be there. If you are talking about trading in short time intervals, you are correct, however for long term investments you cannot be more wrong. Another main difference between sports and the market is that in sports the stats are there for all to see, what you cannot see is the strategies used by the coaches, or their needs to protect their players against injury and develop newer players, these can be inferred but all inferences are estimates in some way or the other. The market is indeed different because there is all kinds of falsehood and equivocation been passed around as "news" or even facts. If you doubt the issue of false facts, I refer you to the AAA  valuations given by SP and Moody's to the mortgage backed securities instruments before the 2008-09 crash, similar events can be found within the Enron trial (which came close to destroying Price Waterhouse, which still exists as a private firm in the UK). I suggest you read the Big Short by Michael Lewis that documents the erroneous valuations of the mortgage backed securities prior to the crash. Areas of immense complexity need to be dealt at different levels, using different techniques that provide approximate answers, you cannot deal with the full complexity of something like the market. And yes, you cannot deal with the full complexity of a full factor analysis of a sports team prior to each game either. I am certain you know how to evaluate how complex a system is from the number of individual variables involved.

I know we cannot solve much of anything via this board, so if you wish to keep this conversation please send me a private message, let's talk.

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14 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Now to the market which is a lot closer to what I do than betting sports. I entirely disagree with you that in the market it is always desired to make as much money as possible in an unlimited manner. This is just not true, many of the truly large investment institutions have different goals for their money. They may be seeking high security over gain. They may prefer investments that will not pay for X  number of years to profits now, but they want to develop a fair degree of certainty in advance that the payoff will be there. If you are talking about trading in short time intervals, you are correct, however for long term investments you cannot be more wrong. Another main difference between sports and the market is that in sports the stats are there for all to see, what you cannot see is the strategies used by the coaches, or their needs to protect their players against injury and develop newer players, these can be inferred but all inferences are estimates in some way or the other. The market is indeed different because there is all kinds of falsehood and equivocation been passed around as "news" or even facts. If you doubt the issue of false facts, I refer you to the AAA  valuations given by SP and Moody's to the mortgage backed securities instruments before the 2008-09 crash, similar events can be found within the Enron trial (which came close to destroying Price Waterhouse, which still exists as a private firm in the UK). I suggest you read the Big Short by Michael Lewis that documents the erroneous valuations of the mortgage backed securities prior to the crash. Areas of immense complexity need to be dealt at different levels, using different techniques that provide approximate answers, you cannot deal with the full complexity of something like the market. And yes, you cannot deal with the full complexity of a full factor analysis of a sports team prior to each game either. I am certain you know how to evaluate how complex a system is from the number of individual variables involved.

I agree fully with what you are saying.  I misunderstood and also over-simplified myself.  Internally companies certainly due a fair amount of hedging for risks.  Investment institution certainly do a lot of this as well to limit their downside risk (typically at the detriment of upside potential).  I was just simply thinking that a company generally is not going to say we have made enough money and should just run out the last possession rather than trying to score again.  Certainly though companies evaluate short-term demand compared to long-term goals, etc.  I should have just left it as company profitability and sports team are definitely two-different entities with two different motivations.

I may take you up on your offer for a PM conversation just because I find these topics to be interesting.

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Interesting thread discussion ...a little off topic but interesting.   Comparing investing / investment analysis to sports betting and basketball model forecasting....what a novel concept.  As far as investing is concerned, it is probably a good idea to leave that to the experts.  As for basketball metrics and forecast modeling, I can only speak to what I do.  There are a number of variables that I use ...SOS , team and individual stats, point spreads, home field advantage and how the 358 teams interact and connect with one another, injuries, trending numbers, etc.. About a dozen different variables. The point spread is the final output.  Zeroing in on 1 variable discussed above is how an increased  point spread can affect a forecast model.  My point spread has nothing to do with sports betting. The model is trying to pick the exact winning spread. Sports betting takes the model ( any one of dozens ) and uses it as a framework which then can be distorted depending on how the money flows. Those on this  board who use my model to bet say they use it when they see a difference between my model and the money spread.

As for the actual spread and how it affects the forecast, it is a metric of diminishing returns....Most of the value in the spread is captured in the 1st  7pts (84%)...by the time the spread is at 10pts you are up to about 93% of the worth of the metric...15pts = 97%...For example , the fact that the Bills won by 44 over EIU instead of 24 will have no additional  affect on my forecast of the Memphis game.  Not an accident that the NCAA when using point spread metrics to give out bids has a cutoff of 10 pts.  They want to discourage teams from running up the score to get a bid or better seed.  They have what they need at 10 pts.

Anyway, let's get back to the EIU game....

Nice win ...Nice defense.

Let's look at the original post....

What We Need TO Do TO Win 

Show up.....We did...We came to play

Hamlin...this is a 6-10 235 lb long armed fly swatter.  Don't try to shoot over this guy.... This guy had 3 blocks. Considering we had a big number of shots (65 ) AND had A+ shooting from all ranges ,  we did a good job .

one area that continues to dog us is 3Pt Def.... We did another good job here...held them to 27.8%

 It seems EIU doesn't like to play 3Pt D either.  So this could be a game of a lot of 3pt shots....a battle we should win A to C-....Here is one of the few downers in the game ...we didn't win this battle....3pt %...F-  to F- ...We shot 20%...I will call this a draw.

The tale of the tape... So how did we not only win by 24 but tack on another 20 pts on top of that...

By doing this...

SLU slash.....49/ 58/20/ 79......A+ / A+ / F- / A+

EIU slash.....26/25/ 28 / 76.5......F- / F- / F- / A 

All aboard for Memphis

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Following on my side of the discussion in this thread, we went up in the Team Rankings overall scale to 55, still below the 50 level but not by much. My concept of looking at the difference between the Vegas line and the actual score in the game, once more showed the odds makers underestimate SLU as a whole. This will change, of course, as the season develops. So far we are in the portion of the season where the actual  strengths and potential for each team, as shown in their overall and conference rankings, are being adjusted into rankings that reflect their actual strength and capability for the season.

In your system, Wiz, this is the initial 8 game series which allows a range of migration both up and down by 2 slots in the scale used by you (going overall from A+ to F-). An attempt to translate this into the Team Rankings system is not possible. So far our migration has been up. Before the season started we held the overall ranking of 107, this went to 84 after the first game with Central Arkansas, then to 65 after the second game against Harris Stowe, and now up to 55 after the game against Eastern Illinois. It should be noted that the TR system juggles teams up and down in their scale at all times to adjust for games won and lost by any participating team as the season progresses.

At this time we are up to 55 overall and 2nd in A10. Our A10 ranking may change after the St. Bona and Canisius game on Sunday. It also appears that Vegas and the odds makers continue underestimating SLU's performance. As I mentioned the situation remains fluid overall. Memphis has gone down from 14 to 17, and St. Bona has gone down from 26 to 30 as the  constant ranking adjustment continues. This is an interesting fluid situation.

Finally, I am quite happy and gratified by your reaction to my comparison of sports rankings and the market. The market is, unquestionably, a lot larger and more complex than basketball or any sport is, however methods that can be used to simplify system complexity into actionable ideas may  not be that different. The way I look at the market can, to some degree, be transported to the way I look at sports. I really am very gratified that you found this concept interesting.

We will have the opportunity next week to really upset the ranking by beating Memphis. I think it will not be easy but it is not impossible for SLU to win against Memphis. One last comment, Hamlin, the human long armed fly swatter as you called him, of EIU was not effective against SLU.

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47 minutes ago, brianstl said:

The fact the NCAA has a limit on margin of victory is sort of a scam because you are still awarded for running up the margin because it improves your efficiency numbers.

Well,  I am sure the NCAA's heart is in the right place by limiting spreads to 10.  .....Scam?  That is a rather harsh word for just one variable in a bigger model.  To me the word scam would have to encompass something much larger. Say something like the NET model which is used to determine who goes to the Crown Jewel  of the NCAA ...The Big Dance....The King of all models...for it is that model which determines who goes and who stays. . Of course , you don't really need a model to pick a Gonz, Kan or Mich....Your Aunt Edna could do that.  No, the model is for the tougher decisions. Those final ones where you have to decide the final seeds. 

To me a scam would be when your model would be pointed at a fine Midwest school  that has overcome adversity...being wiped out by the Covid  and still manages to limp to the finish line with good players, good numbers (based on your own model) and a good record....and then you chuck the model go into a room with your cronies and decide to take lesser teams based on your model and then make up some story about choosing worthy teams.   

Now that would be a scam. Thank goodness, we have good people at the NCAA who would never let that happen.

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